Dr. Bob
Opinion – Toronto (+11) over CLEVELAND
As far as the side is concerned, the Cavaliers have certainly raised their level of play with their current rotation and with the starters playing more minutes than they did in the regular season (which helps Cleveland more than most other playoff teams). However, the line has certainly been adjusted for Cleveland’s improved play, as my player specific ratings favor the Cavaliers by 10 points with current rotations. Also, having won all 8 of their playoff games in the first two rounds is not historically a good omen. Since 1991 there have been 5 teams that hosted game 1 of the conference finals riding an 8 game or more winning streak and those 5 teams are just 1-4 straight up and 0-5 ATS despite being favored by an average of 6 points. That sample size is too small to suggest a bet against the Cavaliers but it certainly suggests that being “hot” in the first two rounds doesn’t mean that much in game 1 of the conference finals. In fact, all of those 5 teams also lost the series.
Cleveland is also just 11-19-1 ATS this season when favored by 9 points or more, as the Cavaliers often relax when they have a sizeable lead. The Cavs are an even worse 3-12 ATS laying 9 points or more after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Toronto, meanwhile, has had a tendency to play better against the league’s best teams this season, as the Raptors are 9-2 ATS against the Warriors, Spurs, Thunder, Cavaliers, and Clippers (the other 5 top teams to top 50 wins in the regular season). Toronto was an underdog in all 3 games against Cleveland in the regular season and won 2 of those games straight up. I’ll lean with Toronto at +11 points or more.
Bruce Marshall
Twins at Tigers
Pick: Over
If it's not bad enough that the respective starting pitchers each way are struggling, so are the Minesota and Detroit bullpens, making no lead safe. No "under" is safe either, especially with the Twins' Phil Hughes laboring with a 6.44 ERA, while the Tigers' Mike Pelfrey is stumbling with a 5.80 ERA.
Alex Smart
Raptors vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -11
The Raptors played a exhausting 7 game series against the Miami Heat and will now be in an emotional letdown situation vs a very well rested Cleveland Cavaliers team that ranks noticeably higher on my play off power ranking charts.
Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Cavaliers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Over in the Sharks-Blues game.
After a low-scoring 2-1 final on Sunday, look for the pucks to find the back of the net with a little more regularity in this second game of the series.
The Over is still 5-2 the last 7 times these teams have skated in the Gateway City, and the Over is 8-3-1 overall the last 12 times the teams have skated.
Both teams have trended towards the Over when coming off lower-scoring games, as the Sharks are 3-0-3 Over their last 6 games when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game, while the Blues are 4-0-3 Over in their last 7 when their opponent pots 2 or less in the previous games - BOTH trends apply in this spot tonight.
Sharks-Blues Over the total.
3* SAN JOSE-ST. LOUIS OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 58-43 run with free picks: Washington (+115) at N.Y. METS
The STORYLINE in this game today - The National League East lights up tonight with the Washington Nationals in Queens, N.Y., to face the defending National League champion Mets. And my free play is on the visiting team, as I think the Nats are going to win what I feel comes down to a pitchers' duel.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The Mets are handing the ball to Noah Syndergaard, and staying under the radar is the fact the right-hander's right elbow is under watch right now. He underwent precautionary testing on it in late April, and has been free in throwing in the upper 90s this season. I don't know how safe that is, and not sure if he can change velocity and add junk against this lineup.
BOTTOM LINE is - Instead, I like Max Scherzer (4-2, 4.15 ERA), who was brilliant last Wednesday, when he allowed six hits and no walks while throwing 96 of 119 pitches for strikes. The 2013 AL Cy Young Award and two-time all-star has been a welcome addition to this rotation and this would be another statement win for him.
1* NATIONALS
Chris Jordan
The Chicago Cubs dominate the Milwaukee Brewers, and the start of this series with the National League Central rivals should be no different. Don't be surprised to see me use the Cubs every day this week, against the Brew Crew, with my free pick. Just be prepared.
Chicago, which arrives in Milwaukee with an MLB-leading 27-9 record, in on an astonishing 14-1 run over the teams' last 15 matchups. And the Cubs have won seven straight at Miller Park, one shy of matching their longest win streak at the 16-year-old stadium.
The rebuilding Brewers, who are struggling with a 16-22 start this season, don't have near the firepower, or pitching staff as Chicago. So I don't see how this game could even stay close.
Hendricks (2-2, 3.03 ERA) is 4-1 with a 1.49 ERA in seven career starts versus Milwaukee and is coming off a season-high 102 pitches over 6 2/3 innings in his last outing. On April 26, he held the Brewers to two hits over five innings, and did not get a decision. Tonight he'll be looking for one.
Anderson (1-5, 6.11), meanwhile, has an 8.88 ERA while losing five consecutive starts. He is facing the Cubs for the first time and that includes slugger Anthony Rizzo, who is batting .414 with eight homers and 24 RBIs in his last 15 games in Milwaukee.
5* CUBS -1.5
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Baltimore Orioles, laying a cheap number to the slumping Seattle Mariners. I don't care if you list pitchers in this one, just straight action, but be sure to get the cheapest price possible.
I know the Mariners are owners of the American League's best road record, but this isn't the easiest of road trips, especially when you're about to face the league's best hitting team.
Sure, the Mariners are hitting .268 and averaging 5.2 runs while compiling a 13-6 road mark, but Baltimore leads the majors with 55 home runs and has hit 31 at home, where it's an MLB-best 16-6. Adam Jones has four dongs with nine RBIs over a six-game stretch in which he's hitting better than .500 (13 for 25), while Manny Machado hit his fourth homer in seven games on Sunday. Machado is hitting .370 with eight homers and 21 RBIs at Camden Yards.
I'm going to bank on the Orioles to roll to an easy win in this contest, as the Mariners will need a couple of days to adapt to the east coast.
1* ORIOLES
Brad Wilton
My comp play was postponed by rain last night, but I am coming right back with it tonight in Major League Baseball.
Something has to give tonight when Boston - 7 in a row Over the total - plays Kansas City - 3 straight Under the total - this evening in KC.
The Red Sox were quite comfy swinging away in their home park for the past 7 games, but now they are on the road, and I look for the pitching to cool off the bats on both sides tonight.
For Boston, Rick Porcello enters at 6-1 with an ERA just a little over 3. The Under is 2-1-1 in his last 4 starts.
Kansas City will go with Yordano Ventura who is a rock-solid 2-0 with a 2.65 in his pair of starts at home for the season.
Going to look for the Sox streak of 6 in a row Over to come to a halt tonight.
Boston-Kansas City to play an Under to open their series here on Tuesday night.
1* BOSTON-KANSAS CITY UNDER
SPORTS CHEETAH
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Toronto Raptors +7.5 1st Half
The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors open the Eastern Conference finals tonight at Quicken Loans Arena in Ohio. The Cavs are a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta, while Toronto need the full-nelson of games in the best-of-seven series against both Indiana and Miami.
Nine years and entering the league along with taking part in the last five NBA Finals events, which includes four MVP awards in his career along with two league championships, LeBron James is a conference series finals victory away from returning to the biggest show on hardwood, again.
Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas is out for Tuesday's Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers and is doubtful for Game 2 with an ankle injury, coach Dwane Casey said Monday.
The Raptors suffered a significant injury during the semifinal series against Miami. Toronto lost center Jonas Valanciunas to an ankle sprain. The injury caused the Raptors frontcourt star to miss the final four games of the team’s second-round series win over the Miami Heat. Head coach Dwane Casey would not speak of a timetable for the return to active duty for Valanciunas but did share with the press that he wasn't yet able to participate in basketball activities.
Valanciunas suffered the injury in the third quarter of Toronto's Game 3 win over the Heat while contesting guard Dwyane Wade's layup attempt at the rim and is won’t play in Game #2 and remains a question mark for the second tilt of the Finals.