DAVE COKIN
RAPTORS AT CAVALIERS
PLAY: CAVALIERS -10.5
Hey, hats off to the Raptors. I’ve had a nice run with my NBA post-season plays, but the Monday night call on Cleveland was a clear wrong side. There was a brief flirtation with possibly winning and covering when the Cavs went up by three with a handful of minutes still to play. But just when it appeared that Toronto was melting, they reassumed control and went on to the six-point win.
No question about it in my mind, the fear factor no longer exists for the Raptors. They got bombed out in the first two games of this series and looked like a vastly inferior team. But now this series is down to a best-of-three and all the pressure is on the heavily favored Cavaliers.
I think this Cleveland team will respond with a big game as they get back home. It’s not that I’m dismissing what the Raptors just accomplished, but let’s just say consistency has not been their forte and I’m not suddenly a great believer in this Toronto squad. The Cavaliers are still the far more talented entry and one would certainly hope that any overconfidence they might have had is no longer in play.
The NBA post-season zigzag theory, as mentioned previously, is mostly a myth, at last as far as the last several years are concerned. But there is one aspect where it has continued to work extremely well, and Cleveland will fit that particular criteria to a tee in this game. Personally, I’m not a big angle guy, so for me that’s just bonus material.
My bottom line is that Cleveland has yet to lost a home game in these playoffs and aside from the very first game in the opening round when they had to battle hard to stave off the Pistons, it’s been really easy sledding for the Cavs. I expect a super motivated host on Wednesday night and while the suddenly resurgent Raptors aren’t likely to just roll over, I like the Cleveland side to make a strong statement in this game. My Game Four play is on the Cavaliers minus the points.
Rob Vinciletti
Penguins vs. Lightning
Play: Lightning +124
The Lightning may have taken the heart out of the Penguins in game 5 with a huge comeback win. The Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 5 trailed the Penguins in Pittsburgh by two goals as late as 13:14 into the second period, and by one goal as late as 16:43 into the third period. In the history of best of 7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2015, inclusive, road teams trailing by two goals as late as 13:14 into the second period had a game record of 31-429 (.067), and road teams trailing by one goal as late as 16:43 into the third period had a game record of 35-601 (.055). The Lightning are 22-8 at home and 5-2 when leading a series. As seen below home teams in game 6 are 11-5 in this venue to sequence.
Mike Lundin
New York at Washington
Play: Washington -159
The Washington Nationals won't be happy with last night's 7-1 loss to NL East rivals New York Mets. I expect the Nats to bounce back with a win Tuesday night with Stephen Strasburg on the bump.
Strasburg (7-0, 2.80) has had a phenomenal start to the year and tossed six innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts when he went toe-to-toe with Matt Harvey (3-6, 5.77 ERA) on Thursday. The Nats won the game 9-1 and Harvey was chased off the mound after just 2 2/3 innings of work while giving up nine runs (six earned) on eight hits and a pair of walks.
The Mets are 1-4 in their last five road games and 3-8 in Harvey's last 11 starts. To make matters worse they'll have to do without Lucas Duda for a while as the first baseman will miss for four to six weeks because of a stress fracture in his lower back.
Nationals are 11-1 in Strasburg's last 12 home starts. Nationals are 7-3 in Strasburg's last 10 starts vs. Mets.
Marc Lawrence
New York at Washington
Play: Washington -157
Edges - Nationals: Stephen Strasburg 13-0 last thirteen overall team starts, and 7-3 career team starts in this series. Mets: Matt Harvey 3-8 last eleven overall team starts. With the Nats 17–9 under the lights at night this season, we recommend a 1* play on Washington.
Scott Spreitzer
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -129
We've backed NY a couple of times during their 12-5 run on these pages. The Yanks paid off both times and will now attempt to extend their winning streak to six. Nathan Eovaldi has pitched well, winning each of his last three outings, allowing just six earned runs and 17 base runners in 19 IP. If and when he departs, he'll be backed by one of the better pens in MLB. We also expect support at the plate from the Yankee offense. Carlos Beltran and Jacob Ellsbury have been red-hot during the run. R.A. Dickey counters for the Blue Jays. The Jays have won just one of his last eight starts and the knuckleballer has allowed seven HRs in his last five starts. The Jays are 1-5 in his last six against New York. Lastly, Eovaldi has pitched well against AL teams with an OBP of .330 or less, helping his teams to a 16-6 record the last 22 times. Toronto fits the bill, entering tonight with a .315 OBP.
Art Aronson
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Over 8
The visitors turn to RA Dickey (2-5, 4.50 ERA) on Tuesday night, the veteran was rocked for five runs off eight hits (including three home-runs), over six innings in a setback to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Dickey has shown flashes of brilliance, but for the most part has been consistently inconsistent this season, note that he owns a pedestrian 4.07 ERA in all night games this year. The home side counters with the hard-throwing Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 4.44), who is coming off his best start of the season, giving up one run over six frames in a victory over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Like Dickey though, Eovaldi has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned as evidenced by his poor 4.88 ERA in front of the home town crowd. With these two erratic starters going head-to-head, the OVER does indeed become a legitimate investment possibility.
Jim Feist
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 7½
This park is big, great for pitchers, and Chicago plays strong defense. The offense has been away from Wrigley Field for a while and is off a bad week, including a 1-0 loss Sunday night on national TV. Jason Hammel goes for the Cubs, with a 5-1 record and a 2.31 ERA. Opponents are hitting .228 off him for the season, including .212 at home. The under is 3-1-1 in Hammel's last five road starts. St. Louis is home with a gem of its own on the mound in Michael Wacha. He has a 3.60 ERA at home and the last four year he is 15-6 at home with a 2.75 ERA.
Larry Ness
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves return home to begin a 10-game homestand, after splitting their past six games since interim manager Brian Snitker took over. Will that give them at least a semblance of confidence? Hopefully, as the task at hand during these 10 games at home is doing something about the team's almost unbelievable 2-17 home record (minus-$1,427 vs the moneyline at $100/game), in which the Braves have been outscored on average, 5.37-to-3.05 RPG. The good news for Atlanta fans (bettors?) is that the Brewers limp in having yet to win a road series this season (0-5-2) with a record of 6-14 while getting outscored 5.35-to-3.85 RPG.
Tonight’s pitching matchup features Jimmy Nelson (4-3, 3.07 ERA) vs Julio Teheran (1-4, 2.73 ERA). Nelson leads Milwaukee with six quality starts and is holding opponents to a .221 batting average. He limited the Cubs to five hits in 7.1 shutout innings last Wednesday but settled for a no decision in a 2-1 Cubs win. He has held opponents to two ERs or less in SEVEN of his nine outings this year but the Brewers are just 5-4 in his starts. Teheran knows all about pitching well but not having anything to show for it. He has been sensational in his last six starts and he finally got enough offensive support Wednesday at Pittsburgh to get his first victory (3-1). He threw 7.2 shutout innings of five-hit ball with no walks. He has posted a 1.15 ERA in his last six starts, including giving up two ERs over 26.2 innings (0.68 ERA) in four starts during May. Teheran is 2-2 in five career starts against Milwaukee with a 2.04 ERA (team is 2-3)
Nelson’s pitched well but NOT as well as Teheran, who is getting 2.73 runs per game (fifth-lowest in the league). Despite that 1.15 ERA over his last six, he’s just 1-2 (team is 2-4), as he's received 1.83 RPG in those starts.The Braves are 0-5 in Teheran’s five home starts this season, after going 35-14 (.714) in his home starts the last three seasons (2013-15). He’s OVERDUE for a home win and that’s the bet here.
Sleepyj
Rays / Marlins Over 8
Both pitchers have a high probability of getting whacked today..Enough power in both lineups to get us the long ball as well..Neither pitcher has been rock solid and both leave the door open far too much...This one might get over early and the early money came on the over..I agree.
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Over in the Penguins-Lightning contest.
Gotta stick with the trends here and play it Over in Game Six Tuesday night.
Sunday night, the teams combined for 7 goals as the Over moved to 3 in a row in this series Over the total.
The Over is now 8-1-1 the last 10 times these teams have played, and is 5-0 the last 5 played at the Amalie Center.
The Penguins will be emptying their net early if behind since they face elimination tonight, and Pittsburgh now has a little bit of a problem in the net, as Marc-Andre Fleury was clearly not in "game shape" on Sunday night. Do they go back to the rookie Murray, or stick with Fleury?
Either way, I like the Over on Tuesday night.
4* PITTSBURGH-TAMPA BAY OVER
SPS Investors
Tampa Bay vs. Miami
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Rays let one slip away from them last night as they fell to the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of their 4 game series. Tampa held a 6-5 lead heading into the 8th inning, but allowed Miami to score two runs in the bottom half to come away with the 7-6 victory. Normally an up and down offensive team, Tampa has had their success at the plate recently having scored at least 4 runs in each of their last 9 contests. They are also second in the league in homeruns (65) and should have success this afternoon against a pitcher who has been struggling on the mound.
Tom Koehler is expected to get the call for the Marlins and make his ninth start of the season in this contest. He is just 2-4 with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.667 WHIP on the year. Control has been an issue for Koehler this season as he has issued a league leading 25 free passes this season. Allowing a free baserunner could prove to be disastrous against a Tampa team that has feasted on the long ball as of late. He has faced the Rays twice in his career, going 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.385 WHIP.
The Rays will counter as they send Jake Odorizzi to the mound in this contest. It has been a rough start to the season for Odorizzi as he is just 1-2 on the year, but is coming off his first win of the season in his last start, which came Wednesday against the potent offense of the Toronto Blue Jays. He navigated that dangerous offense well as he allowed two runs on two hits with two strikeouts in five innings of Tampa Bay’s 6-3 victory.
A major issue for Miami has been their ability to bring base runners around after they’ve reached base. They are just 22nd in the majors as they average 3.91 runs per contest. Miami had scored just eight runs in their last five games entering Monday, losing four of them. With the Rays having given up the lead last night, we expect a much more focused and motivated effort and they should come away with the victory.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -168
Seattle right-hander Nate Karns is having a terrific 2016 campaign, going 4-1 with a 3.33 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 3.79 SIERA and a 9.39 K/9 rate in 46.0 innings pitched. Karns now faces a scuffling Oakland squad that is averaging 3.8 runs per game (.244 AVG.; .292 OBP), including 3.7 runs per game versus right-handed starters (.242 AVG.; .291 OBP) and 3.9 runs per game versus division opponents (.239 AVG.; .282 OBP). Let's also note that Seattle is 6-1 in Karns' last seven outings, and I expect that trend to continue Tuesday night.
Seattle also possesses a strong bullpen that boasts a 2.63 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 2016, including a 0.87 ERA and 0.58 WHIP over the last seven games. In contrast, Oakland receivers enter tonight's game with a pedestrian 3.97 ERA, including a 4.58 ERA on the road and a 4.15 ERA at night. Meanwhile, Oakland starter Kendall Graveman is 1-6 with a 5.48 ERA, 5.91 FIP and 4.37 SIERA this season. In his most recent start against Seattle, the young hurler allowed four earned runs on 10 hits in just 6.1 innings of work
Graveman pitches to contact (6.96 K/9) and induces a lot of ground balls (52.9% GB%), but he's been plagued by the long ball (2.11 HR/9) and a lack of command (3.59 BB/9). The 25-year-old has also struggled on the road, posting a 7.91 ERA and 9.28 FIP despite having a favorable .263 BABIP and 80.4% LOB%. Let's also that the Athletics are 5-17 in Graveman's last 22 starts, including 1-7 in his last 8 road outings and 0-7 in his last seven starts with four days of rest.
We have two teams heading in opposite directions as Seattle has won four straight (as of Monday afternoon) while Oakland has dropped four straight (as of Monday afternoon). Lay the price with the surging Mariners and invest with confidence.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Warriors at Thunder
Play: Over 222
The Warriors got blasted in Game 3, and many are expecting them to bounce back tonight after getting embarrassed the way they did. I'm one of those people, but I also thought the same about the Spurs in their series against the Thunder. We all know how that turned out. But one thing I do know is this: Counting the playoffs, Golden State was beaten by double digits only SIX times this season. How did they respond in the next game? They went 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS. But what I really find interesting is that the OVER was 6-0 in those following games, and those six games went OVER by a healthy average of 15.5 points per contest. Golden State shot 50.8% from the field and 44.3% from 3-point range in those games. Taking the Warriors tonight looks too easy, but I'm definitely giving the OVER a shot in this one.
BUSTER SPORTS
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins +108
Our pitching matchup has the Royals RH Edinson Volquez (4-4, 3.79 ERA) going up against the Twins RH Ervin Santana (1-2, 3.13) Santana is the Twins "ace" of the starting rotation and he is starting to pitch like it. In his last two starts he has pitched 14 innings and only allowed 3 runs. His only start against KC this year he went 6 innings and allowed 2 runs, which was in Kansas City. As for Volquez he does have a good record against the Twins there is no doubting that, but what we are concerned with is how he is performing in the present which is horrendous. On the road Volquez has a 8.81 ERA and a WHIP of over 2. In his last 3 starts he has a ERA of 5.19. We know that the Twins are one of the worse teams in baseball right now but the MLB season is extremely long and it is all about picking situational spots regardless of the team and we have one here. At Buster Sports when we see value with plus money we are always going to take it.
Teddy Davis
Brewers vs. Braves
Play: Braves -113
This isn't a pretty pick, but the Braves have been playing better winning 3 of their last 5. The Braves have the advantage on the mound tonight as Julio Teheran takes he mound. He has been flawless his last 3 games having a .92 ERA and a WHIP of .96. With his form this is a great price to back him here. The Brewers have lost 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5. Also the Braves aren't great @ home as everyone knows, but the Brewers aren't a great road team either having a 6-14 record.