Dave Price
Houston Astros +103
There's no denying that the Astros have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball, but they are so talented that they will turn it around sooner rather than later. They come in undervalued after having lost four straight, including three by exactly one run. I'll take advantage of them being underdogs here at home tonight against the Baltimore Orioles, who are overvalued due to their start, which has them sitting with the best record in the American League. Doug Fister is having a solid season at 4-3 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 8 starts, including 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Houston is 14-4 (+11.6 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Fister is 16-4 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +165 over LOS ANGELES
Daniel Wright was originally selected by the Reds in the 10th round of the 2013 draft out of Arkansas State. He’s moved rather quickly through the system and will be the third player from the draft that season by Cincinnati to make it to the big leagues (Michael Lorenzen and Layne Somsen are the other two). The early report on Wright coming out of college was that he has iffy mechanics that may lead to some control problems. However, the reports coming out of college with his control never showed up. He’s sporting a career walk rate of 1.9 batters walked per 9 innings pitched. He’s also struck out 8.1 batters per 9 innings pitched. Wright has come out and absolutely pounded the strike zone since being drafted.Wright attacks the strike zone and hardly struggles with walking hitters. His stuff isn’t going to blow anyone away. The fastball works in the 89-92 MPH range and he mixes in a good 12-6 curveball and a solid change up. Where he sticks out is his ability to throw all of his pitches for strikes and his ability to mix pitches well and keep hitters off balance.
With players making their Major League debut, you never really know what you are going to get because some guys handle the nerves a little better than others do. Assuming Daniel Wright is the guy he’s expected to be, he’s going to throw a lot of strikes and mix his pitches well. Without overpowering stuff he’s going to need to locate his offerings. He’s been able to do that in the minor leagues for the better part of his career, so that certainly plays into his favor. Wright is a risk but the Reds could use an injection of enthusiasm from a first-time starter and they’ll get that here. If he gets whacked, so be it, as the price here will dictate this play.
Michael Bolsinger cannot be favored in this range. Bolsinger limped into his first start of the year last week with more lost velocity (fastball down to 87.2 mph). Against the Angels, Bolsinger allowed seven hits and walked two batters in 4.1 innings. That’s nine baserunners in 4.1 innings and three of them came around to score. Bolsinger’s season never started because of a spring oblique injury. His control showed signs of slipping in his rehab starts and it didn’t come back in his first start with a 57% first-pitch strike rate and 39% of all pitches missing the strike zone. Bolsinger is young enough to salvage some vintage skills, but we want to see them first before refusing a price like this against him.
Colorado +258 over BOSTON
Clayton Kershaw was a -330 favorite yesterday over the Reds and the Dodgers rewarded their backers with a 1-0 win. That game was a mismatch but it sure had some folks sweating it out. The point is that this is just one lousy game and while the Red Sox may indeed win 21-0 tonight, this game is much less of a mismatch than Dodgers v Reds or Price v De La Rosa.
In the April 26 game against the Pirates, Jorge De La Rosa tweaked his groin while running out a ground ball in the bottom of the third inning and didn’t return to the mound to start the fourth. He has been out ever since. It was another abbreviated start for De La Rosa, who has pitched beyond the fifth inning in only one of his five outings while compiling an ugly 10.18 ERA and 2.1 WHIP with seven HR allowed in his 20 innings pitched. On the plus side, De La Rosa’s 3.97 xERA, 28 K’s in 20 innings and very unlucky 44% hit rate strongly suggest that better days lie ahead. De La Rosa has five games pitched in five of the toughest hitter parks in the league. He has thrown three games at Coors, one game in Cincinnati and one game at Chase Field in Arizona. Fenway is by no means a pitcher’s park but that also applies to David Price.
Price brings a 3-0 home record to this start but that’s only because he’s getting massive run support. Truth is, Price sports a 6.75 ERA at Fenway after five home starts this year. The Rays got to him for eight runs in 3.2 innings at Fenway and the Yanks tagged Price for six runs in seven frames. Price has allowed six runs or more in four of his nine starts this year and he’s also thrown 221 pitches over his past two starts. If Price dominates, so be it but his dominant start/disaster split is about 50/50 this year and that alone makes this a worthwhile wager.
Incidentally, the Rockies bullpen is quietly becoming a dominating force. Jake McGee is holding down their closer role and he’s tossed seven straight scoreless outings. Carlos Estevez is striking out more than a batter an inning, inducing a swinging strike rate over 28 percent and is pumping high-90s velocity. They also have Miguel Castro, who just came back from injury and was part of the package in the Troy Tulowitzki deal. The former Blue Jays prospect also hits the high-90s with his fastball and has struck out 10 batters per nine innings over his limited major-league experience. Win or lose, there is too much value on the Rockies here to pass it up. David Price is not Clayton Kershaw.
WASHINGTON -1½ +138 over N.Y. Mets
There has been a lot of talk lately about velocity drop among some of the biggest names in the sport. Adam Wainwright, David Price, Felix Hernandez and Dallas Keuchel are among those but the case of Matt Harvey is far more worrisome one.
One year ago we were marveling at Harvey’s velocity and rapid comeback to previous levels of performance after Tommy John surgery had robbed him of more than a year of on-field performance. A blood clot disturbed his spring, but Harvey's 2016 performance was highly anticipated. Unfortunately, right now he looks like a shell of his former self. Harvey has mechanical issues as well and they are not getting better. Watching him pitch, it looks like Harvey lacks flexibility, failing to generate torque because the hips don't have enough rotation after foot strike, and he is trying to force an artificially-high release point after dropping his center-of-balance during the lift-and-stride portion of the delivery. Not only is his velocity lacking, but Harvey has lost the excellent release-point extension that once made him great, and in fact his release point is so inconsistent that it has had a negative ripple effect on his pitch command. The slider has been a pitch that he doesn't trust and is too often covered in dirt, such that Harvey has taken to throwing two-strike fastballs above the zone in order to get batters to chase. They're not chasing, but when Harvey misses his target the ball is left up to be smashed somewhere for an extra-base hit. So rather than a four-pitch hurler who disguises his pitches until late in the flight path (thanks to a deep release point), Harvey has been reduced to a one-trick pony whose lone trick (the fastball) is not nearly impressive as it was just 12 months ago. Matt Harvey is in big trouble and the Mets would be wise to put him on the DL and into a strengthening program until he can rotate his hips properly again. In the meantime, he’s batting practice out there.
Over-rated Stephen Strasburg over-ratedly threw six over-rated innings and struck out 10 hitters which hardly matters. He won. What a loser. The point is that for whatever reason, Strasburg takes a lot of heat for not being great. Well, he is great. He consistently puts up an elite K-rate, which is fully supported by a high swinging strike rate and both are skyrocketing right now. He also does a great job of limiting the free passes with just 15 in 61 innings. Strasburg suffered from some tough luck during the first half of 2015, which severely inflated his ERA. His second half performance shows how utterly dominant he can be, and his skills history shows that he is the owner of one of the strongest skill-sets in the game.
HOUSTON +110 over Baltimore
The Orioles are 26-16 while the Astros are 17-28. The Orioles rank in the top-eight in just about every key offensive category while the Astros rank in the bottom five of just about every key offensive category. The Orioles will send out Chris Tillman and his 6-1 record along with his 2.61 ERA to face Doug Fister’s 4.22 ERA. At Minute Maid, Fister’s ERA is 5.21 and overall he has a mere 27 K’s in 49 innings. Looks like an easy choice, no?
Well, we have to seriously question the opening line here. The books made the Astros a -116 favorite. Personally, I look at the overnight lines every day and that number stood out like a sore thumb. We can assure you it caught the instant attention of others too. Surely the linesmakers had to know that they were going to get buried with Baltimore money if they put up a line like that. They didn’t care and the market indeed responded. At the time of this posting (11:40 AM EST), the Orioles are -111. By game time, they might be as high as -125. We can break it down a million ways and still come up with the same probability, which strongly points to a Baltimore victory.
Tillman’s stock is very high right now and it’s deserving, as he has 53 K’s in 52 innings. It’s no secret either that Crush City has never seen a pitch they didn’t like. It’s also no secret that Fister can barely hit 85 MPH on the radar gun and has just 27 K’s in 49 frames with a 5% swing and miss rate. When something looks too easy, it’s not. When the opening line should be in the -140 to -160 range and it comes out with the opposite team being favored, it puts us on instant “sucker” alert. If Baltimore wins here, the house will get buried and while the house doesn’t always win in these situations, they do win a high percentage of the time, which is enough for us to jump on board. We will wait until later to play this game, as we anticipate a higher price on the Astronauts closer to game time.
Will Rogers
Milwaukee vs. Atlanta
Pick: Under
The Atlanta Braves have the second-worst record in the majors at 12-31, but they've done alright lately winning three of their past five. Tuesday night's opponent the Milwaukee Brewers have just one win in their past five, and I think two of baseball's worst teams may struggle to put runs on the board tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Brewers hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (4-3, 3.07 ERA) who conceded five hits and four walks in 7 1/3 scoreless innings against the Cubs his last start. . The Braves counter with Julio Teheran (1-4, 2.73) who has posted a 1.15 ERA in his last six starts. He is 2-2 in five career starts against Milwaukee behind a 2.04 ERA.
2. Road Woes - The Brewers are batting a MLB-worst .222 on the road this season scoring an average of 3.85 runs per game. They've lost five of their past six on the road.
3. X-Factor - Four of the last five meetings between these teams have gone under the total. The under is 5-1-2 in Teheran's last eight home starts.
OC Dooley
Astros +100
Arguably the oddsmakers made a statement casting Houston as a 115-favorite (opening offshore line) even though the offense has batted just .145 during a current 0-4 losing skid. With Baltimore Chris Tillman seeking a "fifth" consecutive winning decision the line of tonight's game has moved to the point where the Orioles are now a slight favorite. That opens the door to a solid angle that sees Houston WINNING at a 13-4 long term clip when cast as a slight home underdog of 125-or-less which is the case this evening
Dr. Bob
No Opinion - Golden State (-1½) vs OKLAHOMA CITY
The Warriors are in a good situation here, as they haven’t lost consecutive games all season (3-0 ATS in the playoffs after a loss) and also apply to a 67-23-1 ATS playoff bounce-back situation. However, as was the case in game 3, my ratings show value on Oklahoma City. Based on current rotations my ratings favor the Thunder by ½ a point. I don’t want to give up that much value and I also don’t want to go against the Warriors following a blowout loss. I have no opinion on the side or total.
ASA
Warriors at Thunder
Play: Warriors -1.5
If you are a basketball enthusiast like I am, and a huge NBA fan then these Finals have been everything you wanted. Here is a quick summary of the season, playoffs and how we’ve gotten to this point. First of all, the Warriors were the greatest regular season team ever, then the Spurs were considered the best in the NBA prior to losing a home game, then Cleveland started the playoffs off on fire and they were going to be the NBA Champs. Quietly flying under the radar, prior to upsetting the Spurs, have been the OKC Thunder with Westbrook and Durant who now hold a 2-1 lead over Golden State in the Western Conference Finals. I caution bettors all the time, don’t get too caught up in short term results but rely on the whole product. So what I’m trying to say is this. The Warriors are still one of the two best teams in the league and are off a very rare loss in a must win situation. There is only one side to bet in this game and it’s on Golden State. The Warriors are the best shooting team in the NBA at 48.5% on the season but they had a horrible shooting performance in Game #3 when they hit just 41% from the field. Klay Thompson and Steph Curry were the only two Warriors to score in double figures. OKC got 30 points from Westbrook and 33 from Durant in a 28-point blowout in Game #3 and the team shot 50% from the field. The Warriors are one of the best FG percentage defensive teams in the NBA allowing foes to hit just 43.3% on average this season. In fact, the Warriors road FG% defense is lower than the Thunder’s home FG% defense this season and they have the 5th best defensive efficiency rating compared to OKC’s 13th. Golden State is a perfect 12-0 SU when coming off a loss and obviously have not lost two games in a row this season. The Champs bounce back here with a road win.