Free Picks for Tuesday, May 2nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
WIZARDS AT CELTICS
PLAY: WIZARDS +5.5
The advocates of the old NBA Playoff ZigZag theory will love the Wizards tonight. That’s if there are any advocates of that theory remaining.
I have to state that while I have no problem with backing long term winning situational angles, my ardent belief is that once they become popular with the recreational bettors, they’re generally toast. And so it has gone with the old ZigZag.
However, I do see the Wizards with a pretty good chance to rebound from the Game One loss to the Celtics. Boston exploded in the third quarter of Sunday’s series opener, and broke what had been a close game wide open.
The Wizards simply have to play better perimeter defense than they did in Game One, don’t they? Put another way, if Boston is able to hit 19 treys again tonight, Washington will be going home down 0-2. So I sure expect to see a more concerted effort by the Wizard defenders tonight.
This looks like a tossup game to me, so I lime the idea of grabbing a couple possessions with Washington. I think my biggest concern might well be the fact that the Wizards will be popular with the betting public tonight. Nevertheless, while again noting this is currently NOT a personal play for me, I’m compelled to at the very least issue a lean on the Wizards plus the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Angels +134
James Paxton has great numbers for the Mariners so, of course, they are favored here and will be a popular choice at home. However, as important as starting pitching is to the evaluation of where to put your wagering dollars in MLB, there certainly are many other factors. That is why sometimes starting pitching is over-emphasized and this opens up value on a team like the RED HOT Angels as an underdog. LA started off slow out of the gates this season but the Angels have now won 7 of their last 9 games. As for Seattle, they've lost 6 of their last 10. Also, as strong as Paxton has been for the M's this season, the southpaw did allow 5 earned runs in only 4 and 1/3 innings in his start prior to shutting down the Tigers last week. Why should we expect the Angels may hit him? Los Angeles swept the Mariners earlier this season and outhit them 35 to 20 in that 3-game series. The Mariners are only 8-12 against righties this season, 6-11 in night games, and 0-4 in Tuesday games. The Angels are 5-2 against lefties this season, 12-8 in night games, and 4-0 on Tuesdays! Matt Shoemaker gets the start for LA and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 4 of his 5 starts this season. Paxton has been the more dominant hurler for sure but the other stats above are heavily in favor of the Angels and I am recommending taking a look at the dog in this one!
Mike Lundin
Pirates vs. Reds
Play: Reds -124
The Cincinnati Reds are coming off back-to-back wins following Monday's 4-3 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. I like the Reds to continue their winning ways as they face the struggling Tyler Glasnow (0-1, 7.98 ERA) on the mound tonight.
Glasnow has gone just 14 2/3 innings in four starts this season, and he was charged with five runs on four hits and five walks in just 1 2/3 innings of a 7-1 loss against Cincinnati on April 10. The Reds turn to Scott Feldman (1-2, 3.25 ERA) who had been solid this season before conceding four runs in five innings of a 9-1 loss at Milwaukee his last time out.
The Reds have won five straight head-to-head meetings, and I think they'll make it six in a row Tuesday night.
Ray Monohan
Indians vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers +113
This play just missed out on our premium card. It's always a good value when you can Justin Verlander at plus money, and that is the case on Tuesday night. Verlander's ERA looks high this season but he has only had one bad start this season, against the Indians, but I don't expect that again in this game.
In his last game he went seven innings against the Mariners giving up zero earned runs and looked like the Verlander of old. Some trends to note. Tigers are 4-1 in Verlanders last 5 Tuesday starts. Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Jim Feist
Blues vs. Predators
Play: Under 5
Both teams are very strong on defense, with St. Louis #8 in goals allowed, #3 in penalty killing. St. Louis is 11-4-1 under the total on the road, 17-5-4 under against the Western Conference. The Under is 17-4-5 in the Blues last 26 games playing on one day of rest. Nashville is home, 4-0-2 under the total here, part of an 8-2-5 run under overall. The Under is 53-23-9 in the last 85 meetings, including 35-10-6 under at Nashville.
Red Dog Sports
Defensa y Justicia vs. Belgrano de Córdoba
Play: Defensa y Justica +150
Belgrano is #23 of the 24 teams in Argentina and are -12 in goal difference. The visitors sit in the middle of the table but have won their last two matches. I hope to see a 1-0 or 2-1 away win on Tuesday.
Jesse Schule
Philadelphia at Chicago
Play: Philadelphia +205
The Phillies have lost three straight heading into the series opener of a four game set at Wrigley, but they have 11 wins already, just two fewer than the Cubs. The big price is too good to pass up here with a hot pitcher on the mound for the underdog.
Jon Lester will toe the slab for the Cubs, and he's coming off back to back poor performances. Lester (0-1, 3.68 ERA) allowed 11 runs on 19 hits over 11 1/3 innings in losses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in his last two starts.
The Phillies hand he ball to Jeremy Hellickson, and he's been almost unhittable in four starts so far. Hellickson (4-0, 1.80 ERA) allowed one run on seven hits over six innings in a win over Miami his last time out. He's only faced the Cubs once, and he allowed three runs on four hits in 6 2/3 innings, getting a victory in that game.
The Phillies are 8-1 in Hellicksons last nine starts with four days of rest.
Marc Lawrence
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Royals -130
Edges - Royals: Duffy 1.29 ERA and 0.71 ERA at home this season; and 10-1 home career team starts in this series… White Sox: Quintana 7.94 ERA with 2.47 ERA away this season; and 1-4 last five team starts here. With Duffy 22-8 at home in his career team starts, look for Quintana to fall to 3-10 in his last 13 team starts during May here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Sean Murphy
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -132
The Nationals grabbed headlines with Sunday’s 23-run outburst before Monday’s off day. It’s worth noting that the Nats’ had been playing a rather uneven brand of baseball prior to that. I do think it was the kind of victory that can send them on a bit of a run. I like the way the pitching matchup sets up in Washington’s favor here. The Nats’ will hand the ball to an underrated and undervalued Tanner Roark. He’s gone a perfect 3-0 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP so far this season. While we haven’t seen Roark’s best, I’ve always been higher on the right-hander than most. Taijuan Walker will counter for the D’Backs. He has fit in nicely with his new club so far, going 3-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. However, he may be running into the Nats’ lineup at the wrong time. Note that Washington has put up a whopping 73 runs over its last six contests entering this one.
Dustin Hawkins
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Royals -111
Kansas City is 21-5 against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.They are also 26-15 against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the same period.The White Sox are 11-28 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
Dennis Macklin
Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Giants +153
Not much to this .... basically betting a quality southpaw against the Dodgers in the blind. In fact, if you did just that from the start of the season you'd be up +4.8 units profit as the Bums just don't hit lefties a lick. Matt Moore faced LA just five nights ago going seven innings of one run two-hit ball in a game San Francisco ultimately lost 5-1 when it got to the pens. Betting the loser in a five-day pitching rematch is also a tried and true MLB betting angle that has been profitable for more than four decades.
Ross Benjamin
St. Louis @ Nashville
Play: St. Louis +143
Despite their Game 3 loss at Nashville, the St. Louis Blues are an outstanding 12-3 over their last 15 road games. Furthermore, St. Louis has won 7 straight following a loss in their previous game.
St. Louis has been a strong finishing team this season, and that’s further proven by them outscoring their opponents by a 96-78 margin in 90 games (+0.2) during 3rd period action. The Blues are coming off a 3-1 loss at Nashville in Game 3 of this series. The combination of this statistical data sets up a money line underdog betting angle which has been very profitable over the past 3 seasons.
Since the start of the 2014-2015 NHL season, any money line underdog (St. Louis) that’s playing in the 2nd half of the season, possessing a +0.2 or better 3rd period goal differential, and is coming off a game in which they scored 1 goal or less, resulted in those teams going 32-17 (65.3%).
Chase Diamond
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals
Play: Diamondbacks +126
This game has the 16-11 Arizona at the 17-8 Washington Nationals. Arizona has been one of the surprise teams this season and that's partially because of young guns like Taijaun Walker who I have like since his days on the Mariners. He is 3-1 with a 3.94 ERA with 33 strike outs to just 7 walks. In fact last time out he whiffed 11 guys. Tanner Roark goes for the Nats he's nothing special and I love getting nice sized plus money in this one.
Matt Fargo
Texas vs. Houston
Play: Texas +131
The Rangers had a chance to take the opener of this series as they got a great performance from starter Andrew Cashner but the bullpen could not shut the door and they eventually lost 6-2. It was the second straight loss for Texas to remain tied with Seattle for last place in the American League West but it has a good chance to bounce back tonight in the second game of the four-game set. The Astros improved to 17-9 following their second straight win and they have gotten the job done at home with a 10-5 record but are overpriced in this spot on Tuesday. Mike Fiers gets the ball for Houston and he has been pretty bad of late with a 6.75 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over his last three starts. Granted, all of those were on the road and he did pitch well in his lone home start but the recent form is a real concern nonetheless. Texas counters with Cole Hamels who is off to a very good start with a 3.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five starts, four of which have resulted in quality outings. He has dominated Houston since coming to Texas as he has a 2.19 ERA in four starts, all quality performances and all resulting in Texas wins. The Rangers are 13-3 in Hamels' last 16 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game while the Astros are 1-4 in their last five home games against left-handed starters.