Handicappers Hub
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -1½
Toronto has won 5 in a row and it looks to be bouncing back a little bit but it is going to run into a buzzsaw tonight as Tanaka is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his last 3 starts and 6-3 with a 2.34 ERA lifetime against the Jays. The only way Toronto will be able to stay in it is if they have a pitching performance of a lifetime from Mat Latos who is coming in with just 2 starts and an ERA of 3.27 against a Yankees team that averages 6.4 runs per game at home. Look for the Yanks to get plenty of run support off Latos and Tanaka to shut them down for an easy run line win tonight in the Bronx.
Mike Anthony
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Orioles +1.5
The Orioles are huge underdogs at Fenway against Chris Sale, but my projections show Baltimore offering some excellent value on the run line. The Red Sox are 1-6 in their last seven games against teams with .600-plus winning percentages and Baltimore has been solid vs LH starters.
Rob Vinciletti
Wizards vs. Celtics
Play: Over 218
This game fits a powerful totals system that plays over for conference home teams that scored 110 or more in a home favored win and cover vs an opponent off a road dog straight up and ats loss that scored 110 or more. These games have average 228 points since 1995. Boston is 6-0 over on Tuesdays and 3-0 over at home off a home game where they scored 120 or more. The Wizards are 7 of 9 over on Tuesdays and 12 of 15 over vs teams who average more than 105 points per game. Look for another high scoring affair.
Jimmy Boyd
Wizards vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -5½
I like the value here with Boston to take a 2-0 series lead at home. The Celtics have won 5 straight since falling behind 0-2 to the Bulls and dealing with the unfortunate death of Isaiah Thomas' sister. I believe that adversity has brought this team together and has them playing their best basketball when it matters the most. The Celtics won Game 1 by 12 points and that was with them falling behind 0-16 in the first 4 minutes. The Wizards had no answer for Boston's offensive attack after that, as the Celtics went on to shoot 51.1% from the field and 49% (19-39) from the 3-point line.
Washington just isn't the elite team on the road as they are at home and a big part of that is their role players just don't perform as well on the road. Wall and Beal have to play exceptional just for the Wizards to keep this close. It's also worth noting that while Markieff Morris is listed as probable, he's not going to be 100% with just 1-day off from that ankle sprain he suffered in Game 1. Without him at full strength, I look for the Celtics to have no problem winning here by more 6+ points.
Mike Menase
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -140
This is about the most juice that I will lay with a team and I normally hate laying any kind of juice. But in this instance I think it's very much worth it.
Seattle sends their ace to the mound, James Paxton. He has been virtually untouchable this season, averaging almost eleven strikeouts per nine innings. And he hasn't been doing it with luck, as his fip is only 1.14. He has been extraordinarily consistent, including against the Angels, against whom he has given up just two runs in his past 15.1 innings pitched against them. Paxton enjoys a solid arsenal of power pitches that gives the Angels batters trouble, who are managing just a .554 ops against power pitchers. I don't expect Angels batters to turn these troubles around on the road, where their ops is just .602 compared to .731 at home.
The Angels counter with Shoemaker, who, with an fip of just 5.51, is struggling to get much going so far. In his last outing against Seattle he gave up six earned runs in 4.1 innings and I expect more of the same today. Shoemaker is very much a finesse pitcher and the Mariners are at their best against such pitchers, with a .807 ops. Shoemaker also induces a mixture of ground and fly balls and against pitchers who are balanced in this way the Mariners are likewise at their best, with a .777 ops. The Mariners bat their best at home, where their ops is .795 and I expect them especially in Seattle to take full advantage of the match-up advantage that they enjoy over Shoemaker.
One may raise concern over Seattle's bullpen, which is indeed ranked towards the very bottom of the MLB in terms of ERA. But they do have some relievers that they can consistently rely on. I like, for instance, Marc Rzepczynski who hasn't given up a run in ten appearances. I especially like James Pazos, whose ERA is just 1.64 in eleven innings pitched and enjoys some power stuff that, like in Paxton's case, can make Angels batters struggle.
With Seattle we have one of the MLB's best pitchers, a strong lineup and a more than adequate bullpen at a very reasonable price. Feel free to put the Mariners in a parlay if you are absolutely opposed to laying juice. At all events, take Seattle!
Teddy Davis
Pirates vs. Reds
Play: Reds -124
The Reds were my free pick winner yesterday so let's back at it again with them.
They send Feldman to the mound who is considered their ace of the staff. He is just 1-2 on the season but his ERA suggests that he has pitched a lot better than that with a 3.25 ERA.
Glasnow is really struggling for the Pirates failing to give quality starts back to back times. He has been awful on the road with a 7.20 ERA.
Larry Wallace
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Orioles +220
I like Baltimore in this match-up against Boston. Baltimore is 4-1 in their last 5 games against a left handed pitcher. Also, Baltimore is 8-1 in their last 9 games when allowing 2 or less runs in their previous game. Boston is 0-4 in their last 4 games during Game 2 of a series. Lastly, the Red Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 games against a team with a winning percentage over .600.
Dwayne Bryant
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Play: Over 8.5
I love taking Overs when we have two starting pitchers who walk a lot of batters. Those extra baserunners have a tendency to turn into runs.
Both Tyler Glasnow and Scott Feldman have walked more than their fair share of batters this season. Feldman has walked 13 hitters in 27 2/3 innings, but Glasnow's 13 free passes in just 14 2/3 innings makes Feldman look like the king of control.
The Pirates bullpen is subpar. The Reds pen has performed well, but that could change any time and certainly won't change my opinion here.
And if you can believe the weather forecasters (I know, that's a BIG IF), there will be a pretty good wind blowing out to straight-away center field for at least the early part of this game.
Executive Sports
Rays vs. Marlins
Play: Rays +116
Miami is 1-5 in their past 6 games, and they've scored only 2 runs or less in 4 of their past 5 games. Can't see them in the favorite role - especially with Volquez in the starting role.
Wunderdog
Blues @ Predators
Time: Under 5
St. Louis has managed just 2.2 goals per game since the start of the playoffs while holding teams to 2.1 per game. Nashville's defense has been nothing short of brilliant, allowing 2.4 per game on the season in this building and just 1.4 per game in the playoffs. When on the road and facing good teams, the Blues are 35-22 to the UNDER dating back to last season. They are also 17-10 UNDER in their last 27 road games this season.
Brandon Lee
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -143
I'll gladly back Seattle at home laying less than -150 with James Paxton on the mound. Paxton hasn't allowed a run and completed at least 6 innings in 4 of his 5 starts this season. He's got a 1.39 ERA in those 5 starts and has not allowed a run in his two starts at home. He's been a major bright spot on what's been a disappointing start to the season for the Mariners. Part of the problem for Seattle is they have played 17 of their 26 games to this point on the road. They are a solid 6-3 at home. They aren't going to take this one lightly, as they were swept in LA by the Angels back in early April. LA is sending out Matt Shoemaker, who is 1-1 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.313 WHIP in 5 starts and allowed 6 earned runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in just 4 1/3 innings against these Mariners back on 4/9.
Andrew Gold
Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -1½
With the Giants taking game 1 last night I look for the Dodgers to bounce back here tonight with Wood taking the mound.
Wood has been a sneaky good pitcher for the Dodgers with a 3.14 ERA. He also just pitched against the Giants and gave up zero runs in 6 innings of work.
Moore was off to a hot start on the season but has since cooled. He has a 6.48 ERA his last three starts and a road ERA of 8.68
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +121 over CINCINNATI
Scott Feldman (RHP) spent the vast majority of the 2016 season working out of the bullpen, as he made just five starts on the year. He's back in a starting role and with a couple other starters on the DL, his grasp on the role is pretty secure for now. Feldman has struck out 24 batters in 28 innings so far and brings a 3.25 ERA after five starts into this start. Thing is, he doesn't miss many bats. Feldman ranked in the bottom 10 in K-rate in both 2014 and 2015 (min. 100 IP), and bottom 20 in swing and miss rate both years. A move to the pen helped him bump up the strikeouts in 2016, but he was the same guy in his five starts, with 5.5 K’s/9. He's been stingy with the walks the past couple of seasons but not this year, as he’s already walked 13 batters and a history of slightly league average first-pitch strikes suggest the free passes he’s issued is right on par. On the surface, Feldman is off to a pretty decent start. However, his recent history is a strong indication that he's not going to generate many whiffs going forward and this match-up is not a favorable one for him because the Pirates lead the NL in fewest strikeouts. Feldman has been able to outperform his xERA in each of the past three seasons, but that is not a trait he had previously shown to possess (ERA was higher than xERA each of the previous four seasons). His ground ball tendencies will help soften the damage, but the lack of swing and miss stuff, combined with a bandbox of a home park make Feldman an extremely risky proposition and usually the second best starter in the game.
After four starts, Tyler Glasgow (RHP) is 0-1 with a 7.98 ERA. In 15 innings, Glasgow has walked 13 and struck out 17. In 17.1 innings this past spring, Glasnow faced 85 batters. He struck out 28 of them, as he typically does, and he only walked seven of them, as he atypically does. A 33% strikeout rate does not surprise us (32% for his minor league career), but an 8% walk rate does (12% for his career). There are reports that he is throwing more of a two-seam fastball instead of his usual four-seamer, and perhaps that lets him control the ball better. That fastball is the 6'8", 220-pound righty's calling card, a plus-plus offering that can reach 98mph. He couples that with a filthy upper-70s curve that is flashing plus. His third pitch, the change-up, is still a work in progress, but it shows potential. The biggest hurdle for Glasnow has always been his control, but when you strike out a third of the batters you face, even slightly below average control would be sufficient for big league success. The Pirates know he has growing pains ahead of him, but named him their #5 starter out of spring training, stating they feel he can learn the most on the big league level. He will have games where he dominates, and there will be blow-up games where the timely hits drive in those baserunners he walked. There is risk here with Glasgow and we would not recommend him as the chalk. More importantly, Scott Feldman’s chances of dominating are a fraction of what Glasgow’s chances are and if you want to speculate on potential growth for a pitcher with nasty stuff like Glasgow has, this is a place to do so.
Oakland +120 over MINNESOTA
The Twins have won four of their last five games but all of those were on the road at Texas and Kansas City. Prior to those five road games, the Twinkies had a nine-game homestand and went 2-7 so perhaps being at home in the cold weather is not so good for this home-run hitting squad this early in the season.
Ervin Santana’s (RHP) 0.77 ERA after five starts has his stock through the roof but there is no chance of him maintaining numbers like that. Toiling away for a team that hasn’t been competitive for a while, Santana also posted a strong second half in 2016, and climbed the bump for the Twins on Opening Day but there is no growth here despite what the numbers say. Look under the hood and we get a more accurate account of Santana’s real skills. There’s unlikely to be further growth. Santana’s second half ERA last year and first five starts this year benefited from hit percentage and strand percentage. Santana’s swing and miss rate is a mere 7% and his BB/K ratio of 10/26 in 35 innings is not even league average. A 27%/27% dominant start/disaster start split in 2016 indicates what to expect from Santana—occasional stretches of dominance, some bad outings, and a whole lot of middle-ground starts. He’s not doing enough to sustain long-term success over the full year. While he’s the Twins’ #1 starter, he’d be a #3 or 4 starter on most other teams and this would be a great time to fade him. His dominance in the early going will not and cannot last.
Then of course there is Sonny Gray (RHP), who makes his season debut here. Neck, shoulder and forearm injuries affected Gray’s playing time (10 weeks over two DL trips) last season. His control and hr/f ballooned, which sent his ERA, WHIP and opponent OPS soaring. Even so, Gray’s first-pitch strike rate, and groundball % stayed solid, giving hope that with health, 2016 can be forgotten. Hit and strand rate regression will also make 2017 look a lot better. Gray had a solid minor league start his last time and now his arm appears sound. He still owns the skills that netted a 3.08 ERA or lower in each of his first three seasons. His xERA's aren't quite as kind (career 3.76), but even that ERA would make Gray worth a wager when taking back a price against Minnesota and Santana.
Tampa Bay +120 over MIAMI
Edinson Volquez’s (RHP) skills have been wobbly for a while. Last year they locked arms and stepped off the ledge. His weak command led the plunge and fewer strikes yielded the second most earned runs in MLB and an overwhelmed xERA. This year, Volquez has 23 K’s in 24 innings but sub-indicators say the numbers of K’s are coming way down. Volquez has a 52% first-pitch strike rate, a 1.68 ERA, a weak 39% groundball rate and he’s walked 14 batters in 24 innings. If that’s not enough, his 6.18 xERA should be. 40% of his pitches are balls and the best pitch in baseball always has been and still is, strike one. Line up every starting pitcher in baseball in order of who to fade when favored and Volquez would be first in line or damn close to it.
Alex Cobb (RHP) brings a 4.66 ERA into this start so his appeal is not great right now. That’s fine with us. Cobb struggled last season, perhaps predictably, in those tentative first steps back from May 2015 TJS. Entering that season, we were touting him as a potential breakout star, and he had the skills to back it up. He surely still owns those skills and he’ll be getting stronger as the season wears on. We’re buyers now, however. Cobb faced Baltimore, Boston and Houston after facing the Yankees twice in his first two starts. That’s a daunting task for any pitcher. He’s walked just six batters in 29 innings with 21 K’s. In his last start against the Orioles, Cobb has a groundball rate of 56%. Before the missed time, Cobb was trending in a positive direction and he’s trending in that same direction now. Without question, Cobb is a much better option taking back a price than Volquez is spotting one and we’re on it.
HOUSTON -1½ +145 over Texas
After five starts, Cole Hamels’ (LHP) ERA is 3.03. After four starts, Mike Fiers’ (RHP) ERA is 5.05. Cole Hamels has been a stud pitcher for years and so he brings his pedigree, his name and his outstanding ERA after the first month into this start. He’s also taking back a tag in the +130 range (at the time of this writing). By contrast, Mike Fiers is Mister Cellophane. In other words, he’s been below average for years and might be the least talked about starter in the majors. Now Mr. Cellophane and his 5.05 ERA is a -140 over Cole Hamels and his 3.03 ERA. Looks enticing doesn’t it? That’s exactly what the line was intended to do---suck you into playing the wrong side so allow us to set the record straight.
Mike Fiers is not going to blow away anyone but what we’re witnessing here is the evolution of a junk-baller. After allowing 19 HR via a 90 mph four-seam fastball in 2015, Fiers scaled back and threw change/curve/cutter more in 2016 and is walking down that same path this year. This has helped cut down Fiers previously high fly-ball rate. Amazingly, his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate this year is trending beautifully and is now at 51%/15%/34%. He also has a decent 8/16 BB/K split after 19 innings. He is a different pitcher now and not many know about it.
Cole Hamels is a different pitcher too and it’s not to the good. Hamels 3.03 ERA after five starts is a massive mirage. His velocity is way down to 90.8 MPH. His walks are up and his K’s are way down too. In 33 innings, Hamels’ has walked 13 while whiffing a mere 15 batters. His swing and miss rate of 7% supports his weak strikeout rate. Hamels' high and unsustainable strand rate of 81% has aided greatly in masking his weak skills. The market trusts that Hamels is still chugging along with his usual solid skills but the signs of regression were there last year when he posted the worst control/command of his career with a notable drop in his first-pitch strike rate. Now add in 200 more innings from last year and overall mileage (over 2200 career innings) and throw in lost velocity, poor skills and a 5.67 xERA and regression is absolutely on the way. This is Felix Hernandez waiting to happen.
Doc's Sports
Wizards vs. Celtics
Play: Wizards +5.5
In Game 1 the Wizards hung right with the Celtics most of the game but they had a real poor third quarter where they were outscored by 20 points and that was the difference in the game. We had Boston in Game 1 for our free pick but we are going to use the zig zag theory here and we expect the road team to play a more complete game here on Tuesday night. Boston has now won five straight games after going down 2-0 in their series against the Bulls but for that reason we think they are starting to get overvalued because normally in this case the odds would sway towards the road team that is desperate for a win. We think they will play much better here and we expect a close game as we don’t see Washington playing two lousy games in a row.
Rocketman
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Orioles +220
The Baltimore Orioles travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox on Tuesday night. Baltimore is 16-8 SU overall this year while Boston comes in with a 13-12 SU overall record on the season. Alec Asher has a 1.42 ERA in his one start this year. Baltimore is allowing only 4.2 runs per game overall this year and 3.8 runs per game at night this season where they have a 12-4 SU record. Boston is scoring only 3.8 runs per game overall this year, 3.9 runs per game against right handed starters this season, 3.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 3.5 runs per game at night this season and 3.6 runs per game against division opponents this year. Baltimore is 11-3 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. We'll recommend a small play on Baltimore tonight!