DAVE COKIN
WASHINGTON AT KANSAS CITY
PLAY: WASHINGTON +110
It’s easy to speculate on individual mindsets, even though in many cases those guesses turn out to be all wrong. But one that more than a few baseball analysts got right last season involved Nationals righty Tanner Roark.
Roark enjoyed a breakout 2014 campaign as he basically came out of nowhere to win 15 games for the Nationals. But when he arrived in camp for the start of the 2015 season, Roark was suddenly being shuttled off to the anonymity of long relief. The Nats simply didn’t have room for him in the rotation following some off-season maneuvering.
I was hardly the only one to question how this would impact the young pitcher. Good solider or not on the outside, Roark had to be ore than a little frustrated at having to accept a far less glamorous and important role, despite the fact he’d done nothing to warrant the demotion.
Not surprisingly, at least in the minds of many, Roark regressed in 2015. He was nothing close to were he was in 2014. As it turned out, Roark was only the first mistake by a Nationals team that made more than its fair share. Those included a similar decision later in the campaign that also proved disastrous. The Nationals decided to trade for Jonathan Papelbon, demoted Drew Storen from the closer role despite the fact he was having a stellar season, and we all now how that worked out.
In any event, Roark is now back in the Washington rotation and the early returns are highly encouraging. Roark has been brilliant in back to back outings and he should be loaded with confidence as he toes the rubber tonight at Kansas City.
Chris Young will be on the hill for the Royals. The veteran righty has defied his metrics for the last couple of years, but that expected regression analytics believers have been waiting for might finally be taking place. Young has had only one really strong start to date, he’s given up at least one homer in every start and the hard hit contact rate is looking pretty shaky.
I think there’s an edge on the mound with Roark owning the advantage, and the team data favors the Nationals as well. Washington comes in hot, having swept the Cardinals over the weekend and then scoring the shutout win on Monday night. The Royals are not playing at a high level right now. The reigning champs are now just one game over .500, they’ve been shutout in three of the last four games, and maybe, just maybe, that anticipated World Series hangover is taking place right now.
I’ve been fortunate enough to have played the Nationals each of the last two days, and with a matchup I see as favorable tonight plus a more than acceptable price, I’ll be on the Washington side again tonight.
Sleepyj
Portland +10
I'm sticking to my guns here with Portland..I still feel they can challenge GS at home without Curry..Game 1 was a wash and the Trailblazers looked rather bad...They did a number of things wrong, but the mistakes they made are all correctable...Lillard comes out slow and the rest of the team feeds off that..The defense was rather bad and the interior defense fell asleep at times..It don;t take but a few runs and you are out of the game Vs Golden St...Portland found that out real quick...I was rather displeased with the effort on both sides...Portland will understand now just how important it is to rebound the basketball..Offensive rebounds hurt them in a major way..Also blocked shots by GS...Portland got little penetration to the basket without it being a contested shot..That needs to change with sound passing..The assisting game from Portland was rather poor..One extra pass can make a world of difference...I wasn't impressed with GS though..Some areas they seemed to lack and for the better part of the game they look rather blah...GS didn't shoot lights out, but Portland struggled to shoot period..If the Trailblazers can manage to shoot better and defend better they have a good shot at keeping this close..Plumlee needs to be much tough down low and so does Ed Davis..These two must of gotten a ear full when the game was over..This next game must be played better..Portland should anser back with a much better effort here..The Portland coach is not very good IMO and it's time he wakes up..Maybe a beat down in Game 1 was what he and the Trailblazers need..Not having Curry on the floor makes these two teams about even almost if Lillard and McCollum are playing well..I think they will and they will lose the game, but scratch out a easy cover..I'll grab the 10 and hope the Trailblazers don't fail me again.
Rob Vinciletti
Tigers vs. Indians
Play: Tigers +111
Detroit is a nice dog play here tonight. The Tigers are 9-3 on the road vs right handers and are averaging over 6 runs per game the past week. Cleveland has lost both times as a home favorite in this range and 3 of 4 on Tuesdays. The Tribe has Tomlin going and his lone start here vs Detroit was subpar. He will oppose Verlander who has won 4 of his last 5 road starts in May. They follow him with a solid bullpen that has a 2.70 road Era. Home teams with a total of 8 or less off a road favored loss are 0-6 if they scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits and the opponent is off a road dog win.
Kyle Hunter
Red Sox vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -133
The Boston Red Sox have crushed right handed pitching this year, but they have struggled against lefties. Boston ranks in the top five in the majors against right handed pitching in weighted on base average, but they rank in the bottom five in the majors in the same statistic against lefties.
Jose Quintana is one of the most underrated left handed pitchers in the game. The White Sox probably aren't as good as their record, but I see this as a good chance to play the team with the much better starter and the better bullpen for a discounted price.
Bob Harvey
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Blazers +10½
The Golden State Warriors continue their quest for a second straight NBA title when they host the Portland Trailblazers in Game 2 of their Western Conference series. Golden State took the opener 118-106 behind Klay Thompson buried seven 3-pointers en route to a game-high 37 points. Draymond Green turned in one of the best individual efforts in the playoffs contributed 23 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists, three blocks and a steal in 37 minutes
The Trail Blazers (48-41, 47-42 ATS) got a break in the first round when the Clippers lost Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to injuries for the final two games of that series. They were hoping to get a jump on the Warriors before a possible return from Curry who could return to action later in the series, perhaps as soon as Saturday.
With Stephen Curry still out with a knee injury, the Warriors (78-10, 50-36 ATS) have seen Thompson step up his game. The former Washington State star is 21 of 36 from beyond the arc in his last three games, becoming the first player in NBA history with at least seven 3-pointers in three straight playoff games.
The OVER IS 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oakland and 13-3 in the last 16 overall.
The Trail Blazers are 7-22 ATS in the past 29 meetings on the Warriors home court.
Larry Ness
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Colorado’s lost 18 of its last 23 at Petco where Cashner owns a career 2.71 ERA...
Colorado had lost FIVE in a row when it opened its season’s-longest road trip in Arizona over the weekend. The Rockies opened their 10-game trip with a promising sweep of Arizona, scoring 20 runs on 32 hits in the series. However, that modest three-game winning streak come to an end in Monday’s 2-1 loss to the Padres. The Rockies average 5.32 runs per game in 2016 (4th-highest in MLB) but Monday's 2-1 defeat is, for Colorado fans, is an all too familiar result in the team’s last 23 games in San Diego (dating to September 6, 2013).
The Rockies have lost 18 of those 23 games, scoring only 2.78 RPG. In fact, the Rockies' 2.90 runs per game at Petco Park since the start of the 2014 season are fewer than any other ballpark in which they have played more than eight games! However, there is some good news for Colorado. A matchup against Andrew Cashner may be “just what the doctor ordered” to cure Colorado's ‘ailing’ bats here at Petco. Cashner (1-2, 4.94 ERA) is coming off his worst outing of the season (and his shortest outing since 2013), allowing six runs (three earned) on four hits and four walks over just 2.2 innings in Wednesday's 13-9 loss at San Francisco. Cashner had surrendered just two runs and seven hits in 12 innings over his previous two starts.
That game was the aberration, the last one in San Francisco," manager Andy Green told MLB's official website. "He has to attack with the fastball, he has to trust it. He needs to have that depth of conviction in every pitch, and when he does that, Cash is really, really good. And that's the guy I'm expecting to toe the rubber." Then again, Cashner's career numbers against Colorado don't provoke nearly as much confidence as his manager does. He owns a 6.08 ERA against the Rockies in 11 appearances (including six starts / team is 3-3) but Colorado has pounded him for a .339 average (the highest of any team he's faced more than once).
Eddie Butler (0-0, 3.86 ERA) will make his first start of the season tonight, after throwing 2.1 innings of relief against Pittsburgh in his season debut Wednesday. “In the short outing we saw the other day, he was throwing strikes again,” manager Walt Weiss told reporters. “He did that in the minor leagues, and he’s always been a strike thrower.” The 25-year-old was brutal in 2015, going went 3-10 (5.90 ERA) last season in 16 starts, with one of the losses coming at San Diego on May 1, 2015, when he allowed five runs (three earned) over four innings.
Considering Colorado’s woes at Petco, along with Butler’s rough 2015 numbers, the Rockies hardly figure to have an easy time in this one. Throw in the fact that Cashner owns a career 2.71 ERA in Petco (his 1st two 2016 starts came at home / 1.50 ERA) and I’m on the home team in this contest.
Jesse Schule
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -120
The Orioles are just a half game back of first place Boston in the AL East, and they host the last place Yankees in Game 1 of a home series Tuesday. New York comes in as losers of five straight, and they have lost 20 of their last 27 at Camden Yards. Chris Tillman will toe the slab for the O's, and he's coming off a dominant performance. Tillman (2-1, 3.24 ERA) blanked the Rays through 6 2/3 innings, giving up just two hits while fanning nine in a 3-1 win at Tampa. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last six home starts versus the Yankees. New York will counter with 22 year old right-hander Luis Severino, who is still looking for his first victory. Severino (0-3, 6.86 ERA) was torched for six runs on seven hits and two walks in just three innings in a loss at Texas his last time out. As bad as he's been, he's been far worse on the road, going 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in losses to Texas and Detroit. The Orioles are 8-3 in Tillman's last 11 starts versus the Yankees.
Cajun Sports
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -120
The Baltimore Orioles play host to the New York Yankees on Tuesday night in Game One of their three-game set. The Yankees enter this game having just been swept by their hated rivals Boston Red Sox in Boston and that came on the heels of losing their two previous games of a three=game set in Texas. Their current road trip has not been kind to the boys of Gotham posting a record of 1-5 their last six games. Add it all up and the Yankees are riding a five-game losing skid and staring at another team that is capable of sweeping them. Baltimore is 77-56 SU for a profit of +2487 coming off game in which they were installed as an underdog. The Orioles are 42-29 SU for a profit of +1936 at home coming off a home underdog loss. We want to play ON MLB teams when their starter struck out at least nine batters in his last start. These MLB teams are 1911-1531 SU for a profit of +1671 Units. We want to play ON MLB teams when their starter struck out at least nine batters in his last start and went less than seven innings. These MLB teams are 1308-1047 SU for a profit of +2887 Units. With the Orioles holding the edge in most categories against this Yankees team we will lay the short price here.
Power Sports
Washington vs. Kansas City
Pick: Washington
The Nationals shut out the Royals in yday's series opner, winning 2-0. With Tanner Roark on the bump tonight, I feel that they come in highly undervalued as KC has now lost six of its last seven overall. Roark's team start record might only be 2-3, but he has a 2.03 ERA and 1.194 WHIP, so he's pitched effectively. Tonight, I expect him to pitch well again, only this time pick up the victory.
Roark was the very definition of a "hard luck" loser his last time out as he didn't allow a single run over seven innings (only two hiits), yet the team ultimately came up short in Philadelphia, losing 3-0. Interestingly, the Nats haven't lost since. Roark also allowed no runs on two hiits the start before his last, only this time he added 15 K's and the Nats did win that one, 3-0. On the season, there have been three times when Roark has gone at least seven innings w/o giving up a single run.
As for Kansas City, they've now been shut out three times in the last four games, so Roark is the last guy they want to see here. Also, the Royals will be sending the struggling Chris Young (6.14 ERA) to the hill. Young has allowed at least one home run in every start this season. The Nats are now 10-3 on the road and a perfect 4-0 vs. the American League. They're simply "too tough" for the Royals to handle right now.
Jim Feist
Washington at Kansas City
Pick: Washington
The KC Royals still struggling to shake that Championship hangover. The Royals are just 13-12 on the season and after Monday's 2-0 loss to Washington, has now dropped six of their last seven. The offense has been anemic, scoring two runs or less in five of their last seven games. The Royals are 27th in the MLB in runs scored (81) and 20th in slugging % (.308). The Royals have dropped three spots in the standings during their 1-5 run. Meanwhile, Washington is in first place in the NL East at 18-7. The Nats have won four straight games and sevne of their last 10. Tanner Roark starts for the Nats tonight, with a 2-2 mark, 2.03 ERA and 1.19 WHiP. He will be opposed by the Royals' Chris Young. Young is just 1-4 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The 36-year-old veteran is showing his years, going past the fifth inning just once in his five starts. The Nationals just too hot right now, while the Royals are struggling. I'm taking Washington tonight as a small dog.
Teddy Davis
Detroit vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -125
I look for the Indians here in a big bounce back after getting swept by the Phillies over the weekend. They will send Josh Tomlin who has been out standing this year having a 3-0 record with an ERA of 3.18 and a home ERA of 1.80. I expect him to end the Tribes skid here tonight. Verlander still gets a lot of respect because of him name, but he has been getting tagged this year. He is just 2-2 with an ERA of 5.46 and has lost his last three starts vs the Indians
Marc Lawrence
Dodgers vs. Rays
Play: Rays -119
Edges - Rays: Matt Moore 5-1 overall last six home team starts; and 5-1 last six team starts during May. Dodgers: Scott Kazmir 0-4 last four team starts during May; and 1-4 career team starts versus Tampa Bay. With Moore in fine KW form with 35 K’s and 7 BB’s this season, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.
Brandon Lee
Oakland A's -120
I was on the wrong end of Oakland's 3-4 loss on Monday with my free selection, but I'm staying on the A's bandwagon for Tuesday's matchup. Oakland is simply showing too much value at home with their ace Sonny Gray on the mound to pass up. Gray has a 2.33 ERA and 1.242 WHIP over 3 home starts and is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 9 career starts against the Mariners. A's are a perfect 6-0 in Gray's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record.
Brandon Shively
Blue Jays -1½ +118
The Blue Jays beat the Rangers last year in the playoffs to advance to the ALCS. Last night, the Rangers pitching shut down Toronto and got a ‘revenge’ win after being outed last year in the playoffs.
Looking at tonight’s game, I see Toronto who is playing at home, with a more favorable pitching matchup. They will face Martin Perez, who got the start for the Rangers last year in Game 3 of the playoffs, and Toronto tagged him for 6 hits that equated for 4 runs. Perez issued 3 walks in that start. This year his walk rate is off to a career high, walking 4.5 batters per nine innings. Also, his K/9 is at a career low at only 4.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Perez has never been anything special and is a bottom end of the rotation starter. Texas is 0-2 in his two road starts this season and 3-7 dating back to last year. The last six road losses have ALL come by two or more runs.
Much of that is due to run support, or a lack of by Texas. In those six losses, the RAngers are only averaging 0.83 runs a game. Yes, Texas has been shutout in three of these road starts. Based on recent history, I can’t see them just ‘waking up’ all the sudden and scoring enough runs for them to win this game tonight.
Toronto will call on Marco Estrada who won Game 3 in the Playoffs last year. He made two starts vs. the Rangers last season and only gave up 2 runs in 12.1 innings pitched. While Estrada's walk rate is up a bit this year, his strikeout rate is also up, which is a good thing at 9.12 K’s per 9 innings. Unfortunately, Estrada has not been able to get run support either this year at only 2.19 runs a game.
Toronto has now lost four straight games at home, where they played so good and hit the ball oh so well last season. They haven’t lost five straight since 2013. I feel they are in position for a win tonight. Much of the problems have been because of the lack of offense. But there is potential for them to wake up, facing a left handed in Perez, that is a contact pitcher that has more walks than strikeouts this season.
Toronto is 4-0 in Estrada’s four career home regular season starts as a home favorite of -150 or greater. They have won ALL four games by two or more runs with an average final score of 7-3. The Ranger’s have lost Perez’s last 3 regular season road starts when an underdog of +140 or more, ALL by 2 runs or more. I like this spot to lay the -1.5.
Jimmy Boyd
Orioles -120
Baltimore is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Yankees in Tuesday's series opener. While the Orioles just dropped their last two at home to the White Sox, they are still a dominant 9-3 at Camden Yards this season. New York has lost 5 straight after getting swept by rival Boston over the weekend and are just 3-8 on the road in 2016.
The Orioles will send out Chris Tillman, who has been on top of his game when he takes the mound at home. Tillman has a 2.08 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 3 home starts, all of which Baltimore has went on to win. The Orioles have won 5 of this last 6 starts at home against the Yankees, who send out the struggling Luis Severino. In 4 starts this season, Severino has a ugly 6.86 ERA and 1.779 WHIP, including a 10.12 ERA and 2.375 WHIP in 2 road starts. New York has yet to win when he takes the mound and I don't see that changing tonight.
The Orioles are a perfect 7-0 this season at home with a total of 8 to 8.5, 17-5 in their last 22 home games after a loss by 4 runs or more and 12-2 in Tillman's last 14 home starts against a team with a losing record. Yankees are just 8-20 in their last 28 against division opponents, 1-6 in their last 7 against a right-handed starter and 107 in their last 8 when playing after a day off.