John Ryan
Phillies vs. Cardinals
Play: Phillies +145
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-17 over the last 5 seasons good for 71% winners and made 24.6 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (ST LOUIS) - team with a good SLG (over .430) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP less than 1.250) -NL, in May games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Phillies are a money winning 10-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing less than 0.35 SB's/game this season; 10-3 (+10.2 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 8-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season. Mackanin is 24-10 (+24.6 Units) against the money line vs. poor fielding teams - (turning 0.8 or less DP's/game) as the manager of the Phillies. He is also 20-10 (+18.6 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games as their manager.
Fundamental Discussion Points The Cardinal's starter Michael Wacha is 1-1 (-0.9 units) when starting against Philadelphia with an ERA of 7.59 and a WHIP of 1.593. Wacha throws a lot more first pitch strikes, however he's given up 5 runs and a high .313 average after an 0-1 count. On the other side, the Phillies' starter Nola has been looking excellent. Pick Philadelphia Phillies.
Matt Josephs
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -115
The Yankees head to Baltimore having lost five straight games. New York is hitting .220 on the road and .218 in their last seven contests overall. Chris Tillman has a 2.08 ERA and a WHIP of 1.000 in three starts at home. He's pitched well in his last two home starts against the Bronx Bombers giving up three runs and 12 hits in 12 innings. Carlos Beltran (2-10), Jacoby Ellsbury (9-37), Brett Gardner (8-33), Chase Headley (2-12), Brian McCann (3-15) and Dustin Ackley (3-16) all struggle with the righty. Baltimore's bullpen is 7-2 with a 2.23 ERA overall. Luis Severino is 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA and a WHIP of 1.779 in four starts. Last year he gave up three runs and five hits to the Orioles at their place. Baltimore is 9-3 at home hitting .296 there. New York's bullpen has not blown a save all year, but they have a 6.37 ERA on the road. Baltimore has won 14 of their last 18 at home in this series. I like that trend to continue.
Zack Cimini
Miami vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Which Toronto Raptors team will we see to start off game one? After being pushed to seven games against the Pacers, one would expect continued offensive problems against a Heat team that excels with both their first and second units.
Yet, I believe the Raptors can continue to thrive with their home court edge to alleviate some of their offensive woes.
Balance still transfers over to the Raptors as they've found production from a gamut of players while DeRozan/Lowry work out of their funk. Nolan Powell, Cory Joseph, JV, Patrick Patterson, and Terrence Ross have all had shining moments in the playoffs.
Miami survived against the Hornets thanks to three dominant games at home but looked subpar in two of their three road games.
What kept this from being a premium play is the unknown with the Raptors offense, yet I think they'll get enough done from their full cast to squeak by and get the cover.
Wunderdog
San Jose @ Nashville
Pick: Nashville -111
San Jose has no urgency for this one, up 2-0 in the series and 2,500 miles from home. Nashville plays its best hockey at home with no real weak spots, #12 in goals scored, #10 on the power play and #14 in goals allowed. They come off a 3-2 loss at San Jose, but outshot the Sharks 39-25 and outhit them 46-26. With the tandem of captain Shea Weber and Roman Josi leading the way, Nashville's defensemen led the NHL by posting the most points (203) and goals (55) during the regular season. Fellow blue-liner Mattias Ekholm has been clutch in the playoffs, tying for the league lead among defensemen with three tallies and either tying the game or putting his team ahead with each of his goals. Nashville has won six of the last seven meetings at this arena against San Jose, and the home team is 38-18 in the last 56 meetings.
Jack Jones
Oakland A's -114
The Oakland A's are showing solid value as only -114 home favorites over the Seattle Mariners Tuesday night. They will be sending ace Sonny Gray to the mound to take down the struggling Hisashi Iwakuma of the Mariners.
Gray has gone 3-2 with a 3.81 ERA in five starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in three home starts. But what really stands out is that Gray is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in nine career starts against Seattle.
Iwakuma just hasn't been himself since returning from injury. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in five starts this season. Iwakuma is also 5-4 with a 4.19 ERA in 10 career starts against Oakland.
The A's are 6-0 in Gray's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Mariners are 1-5 in Iwakuma's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record. Oakland is 4-1 in Gray's last five home starts.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers +121
I'm going to take a shot with the Tigers as road underdogs to the Indians today in a game they should probably be favored in. Detroit comes in playing very well having won five straight games while scoring a combined 35 runs in the process, or an average of 7.0 runs per game. Justin Verlander has pitched well here of late, going 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Josh Tomlin gave up 4 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Twins. Tomlin is 3-4 with a 4.97 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. Detroit. The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Indians are 1-5 in their last 6 games overall. Cleveland is 1-7 in Tomlin's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +131 over CHICAGO
We are generally suspect of knuckleballers, but it’s golden when on and for Steven Wright it’s been on all year. We’ll ride the hot hand here, as Wright has 25 K’s in 26 frames to go along with a 1.37 ERA. Knuckleballers are a risk to be sure but Wright has a 13% swing and miss rate and as long as he can keep throwing strikes (command has been an issue for him in past), he has the ability to succeed. That ERA will obviously not remain there but that is a moot point, as this wager has little to do with backing Wright.
Prior to this year, Jose Quintana was very much one of our favorite undervalued pitchers but he’s no longer under the radar, which is our cue to jump ship. We are also still in “fade the White Sox” mode so this one has double the appeal. Quintana is coming off a six-inning, four-hit shutout gem over the Blue Jays in Toronto, which increases his stock even more. He’s now 3-1 in five starts with a 1.47 ERA. After striking out 10 Blue Jays, Quintana now has 32 K’s in 31 frames but we’re not buying the K% surge because of his 7% swing and miss rate. Q has been a solid arm for years but he’s not this solid. In fact, there are plenty of danger signs in his profile that say a disaster or two is on the horizon. For instance, Quintana’s line-drive rate of 35.6% is the fifth worst mark in the majors among starters, which reveals most hard hit balls hit off him have been right at people. He’s also faced five struggling offenses to start the year with games in Oakland, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Toronto. His only home start came against the Rangers, a team that is dead last in the AL in home-runs and that is batting .239 on the road. Now Quintana and the South Side are a pretty significant home favorite against the dangerous Red Sox. Boston’s offense is not struggling.
MILWAUKEE (5 innings) +117
In the past 18 months, Junior Guerra signed his first contract with a MLB organization since 2008, made his Triple-A and MLB debuts as a 30-year-old, and was claimed off waivers by another club. Hey, it's not the lavish life, but it's a neat story about someone who held onto his dream much longer than any of us would have recommended. As for on the field, Guerra sat in the mid-to-upper-90s during his time as a big-league reliever, and showed a number of secondary pitches that fluctuated in their quality, which included a slider that serves as his out-pitch, a curveball, and a changeup. Guerra has strikeout ability, as his 23 K’s in 23 Pacific Coast League (AAA) innings this year will attest to and his 79 K’s in 63 innings last year in the International League (AAA) will also attest to. Guerra has shown flashes of complete brilliance at times in his long minor league career that started in 2006. He missed all of 2007 and also missed the entire 2009 and 2010 seasons. In 2014, Guerra played in the Italian major league so to say that he’s paid his dues would be an understatement. Guerra and his bulldog mentality and very good stuff will now get his long awaiting oportunity to stick in the majors, He’s had control issues in the past but there is no denying the talent. As a dog at home against the Angels and Nick Tropeano, the Brewers hold the value here. If Guerro is on, chances are he’ll leave with a lead after five. If he blows up, we’d likely lose anyway, so because this is a wager based on the starters, we’ll play it in five frames.
Nick Tropeano brings a 1-0 record and 2.11 ERA after four starts into this one. On paper it all looks very nice but that’s why we don’t buy surface stats. Under the hood is where things begin to look shaky. First, Tropeano’s fly-ball rate of 53% is the highest in the majors and he’s only allowed one home run for a hr/f of 3%. More bombs against him are forthcoming and this is likely the park that makes that correction. Additionally, Tropeano has walked 10 batters in 21 frames, which comes with the support of just a 55% first-pitch strike rate. His WHIP of 1.55 is not conducive with a 2.11 ERA. Tropeano’s unsustainable 89% strand rate is what is doing the heavy lifting here so don’t be surprised to see things come crashing down on this very average starter. A monkey in silk is still a monkey.
Colorado +115 over SAN DIEGO
Andrew Cashner is 1-2 after five starts with a 4.94 ERA and it’s all legit, as we’ve been watching his slow decline for years. Last year, Cashner’s control waned and left-handed batters had their way with him. This year, righties are crushing him to the tune of a .340 BAA with a 1.064 OPS. In 24 innings this year, Cashner has a BB/K split of 10/21 but a very low 6% swing and miss rate insist that the K’s will not hold up. His WHIP of 1.44 puts him in dangerous territory too. Andrew Cashner once had plenty of promise. He’s not a household name but bettors and fans of this game recognize Cashner as a reliable starter but that’s no longer the case. Cashner had a miserable season last year and his sub-indicators say a rebound is not happening. Pitching for the Padres, Cashner has no appeal whatsoever as the chalk but this market is not aware of just how bad his regression has been the past one year plus.
Eddie Butler is not recognizable at all. Even die-hard baseball fans do not know much about him but we have been following his career for years. Butler was the #2 2014 Colorado prospect and the 17th-best (or higher) starting pitcher in several publications in the 2014 top prospects list. He was rated a 9C out of 10 by several scouts. 9C pitchers are not that common, so here is a top talent that has had some injury issues that derailed his career. Butler won a rotation spot for the Rockies last year despite shoulder issues, just five innings of experience at the Triple-A level, and a less than stellar 2014 campaign. It’s unclear whether he truly regressed in ’14 or was a victim of shoulder soreness with a correction coming. His 92-95 mph fastball, hard slider, and solid change-up give him three plus pitches. He pitches to groundball contact and has historically limited walks with a nice K-rate rate; all of which better his chances for success at Coors Field. Butler comes at hitters from a ¾ arm slot with repeatable mechanics. There is a very high ceiling here for when he pitches on the road because nobody thrives at Coors. Butler has just 19 starts in the majors over his career and he has some outstanding peripherals that include a 60% groundball rate, a 78% first-pitch strike rate and a 13% swing and miss rate. The market will likely pay attention to Butler’s career numbers and back off but that would be a mistake because there is no comparison between Cashner’s downside and Butler’s huge upside. The market’s perception here is way off and we’ll look to take advantage.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose +101 over NASHVILLE
OT included. Everyone makes mistakes and we made one when we suggested that the Preds might win this series. Out mistake wasn’t in suggesting that the Preds can play with the Sharks, instead, we should have known better to think that Pekka Rinne could win another series. All analysts were throwing crazy praise Rinne’s way after the Preds defeated the Ducks in Game 7 but we’re not sure what they were watching. Rinne made some huge saves but they were mostly all luck, as he continues to fight every puck directed at him. He’s so slow that he can’t even stop the puck when an opponent shoots it in deep around the glass and behind the net. The puck beats him almost every time. Play that series with Anaheim again, and it’s likely a 4-1 or 4-0 Ducks’ win. Play that series again with the same goaltenders 100 times and Anaheim likely wins 100 times.
Goaltending decides everything in this league. The NHL is the only sport in which the second best team playing wins frequently. It is the only sport in which you can get completely dominated and win if you have a great goaltender. When we can take back a tag in a goaltender mismatch, we are going to do so a high percentage of the time and this one is no exception. You see, if San Jose gets dominated here, they can still win. However, if Nashville gets dominated or the puck possession numbers are equal or close to it, the Preds cannot win because Rinne is a putrid goaltender that is grossly overmatched here. It’s not rocket science. It’s a goaltending mismatch that must be played. It is exactly like two NFL teams going head to head that are equal except at the QB position. One team has Aaron Rodgers and the other team has Tim Tebow and the game is evenly priced. Well, we have Aaron Rodgers here in an evenly price game.
Will Rodgers
Miami vs. Toronto
Pick: Under
The Toronto Raptors and the Miami Heat scrambled past their respective Conference Quarterfinals match-ups with both series going to seven games. These are two of the top defensive teams in the East, and it would be no suprise to see a low scoring contest in the series opener.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Raptors failed to reach the total in all but one of their seven games versus the Pacers, while the Heat went under in eah of the last four games in their series versus the Hornets.
2. Defense - Miami put on a defensive clinic in Game 7 versus Charlotte, holding the Hornets to 74 points on 32.1 percent shooting. The Heat rank 5th in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 984 points per game. Toronto ranks 3rd allowing just 98.2 points per game.
3. X-Factor - The Raptors have failed to reach the total in seven of their last eight overall, and five straight following a win.
Harry Bondi
LA ANGELS -120 over Milwaukee
We certainly don't mind laying the small price on the road here as we'll play the explosive Angels offense against Milwaukee starter Junior Guerra, who has been called up from the minors to step in for Taylor Jungmann. With Guerra making just his fourth appearance in the big leagues, look for LA to chase him early and then feast on a Brewers bullpen that's posted a 4.98 ERA at home this year. The Angels should provide plenty of run support for their starter Nick Tropeano, who despite just a 1-0 record, has pitched very well this year with a 2.11 ERA in four starts.
Alex Smith
Tampa Bay at New York
Play: New York -110
The New York Islanders head back home to Brooklyn for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Isles picked up a 5-3 road win in Game 1, chasing Lightning goalie Ben Bishop out of the contest as he allowed four goals on just 13 shots. Tampa rallied back to win Game 2 by a score of 4-1. Both contests have been very physical at both ends of the ice and the Islanders have done well to draw penalties and score on the power play this postseason. New York has scored at least one goal on the man-advantage in both games of this series and in five of its last six games overall. They’ve also gone 12-6 in their last 18 games at the Barclays Center and have won five of their last eight games overall while Tampa Bay has lost eight of their last nine road meetings against the Isles and four of their last six games overall as a visitor. The Lightning went off around -160 series favorites but it’s clear this is a far more even matchup. To get the Islanders at a pick ‘em on their home ice offers solid betting value.
Stephen Nover
LA Angels -125
Nick Tropeano isn't likely to pitch deep into this game. But Tropeano has been effective in his four starts this season allowing two runs or fewer in each outing. He can be counted on for five or six solid innings. This is more than Junior Gurerra, a 31-year-old converted reliever just called up from the minors, can be relied upon.
Guerra was 0-2 at Triple A Colorado Springs with a 4.63 ERA. He's pitching on seven day's rest, which could make him rusty.
The Brewers, depth-shy to begin with, could be minus three starters. Second baseman Scooter Gennett is on the DL. Outfielder Domingo Santana didn't play last night due to shoulder tightness and Ryan Braun could get a day off after complaining of soreness.
The Brewers finished 13 games below .500 at home last year and are under .500 at Miller Park this season.
GoodFella
Miami +5
Totally fine if you do not want to pay the 10 cents to get the +5. I have chosen to do so here. I really feel like the Heat are a very live dog this evening. I feel very strong that this Heat club is just a better overall team than the Raptors. The Raps rely so heavily on the shooting of two players & Lowry and Derozan have been so up and down in these playoffs. I think the Heat have the personal to frustrate and limit what these two do, as the Heat defense could really be difference in this series. I feel fairly strong that the Heat steal the home court advantage by winning one of these two games at Toronto to open the series. I really see a dogfight of a game tonight & I will grab the +5 (-120) with the Heat here and would not be surprised with the outright winner from them this evening.
Dave Essler
Tampa Bay -140
Gotta do it - the Rays certainly haven't been tearing the cover off the ball the last week, but they have faced some very good pitching against Baltimore, New York, and Toronto. The Dodgers over the last week are hitting .167 with 12 runs scored in six games - I suppose that could turn around, but never will I back that. Another thing lost on some might be that many (most) of the Rays have seen Kazmir from his days in the AL, AND he spent 5+ years in Tampa Bay (a pitchers' park), as was Oakland where he made another name for himself. Let's not forget that this guy was almost out of baseball at one point. His comeback with the Indians went "mediocre" - then the A's - the last year with Houston for part of the season where he pretty much was killed. And this season he's already given up five jacks in 25 innings, so what I am seeing is a serious regression to the mean. The last three years he's pitched twice at the Trop, going 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA. So, we have a declining pitcher (IMO) and a team that's not hitting at ALL, against a team who's 5-2 against left handers this season, going against a Dodgers' team whose road bullpen ERA this season is 4.87 and they've blown four of ten save chances. Before the 1-0 Kershaw win, they'd lost six straight - to Miami and San Diego, at HOME. They've got 8 road wins - three at SD to start the season, two in Atlanta (they're only trip out of the West Coast, save Colorado), and two in Colorado - so none, really, against good teams. Total mismatch here, IMO, and you'd THINK the Dodgers' pen would be better AWAY from the big park in LA.
Bruce Marshall
Yankees at Orioles
Pick: Over
Plenty of indicators that lots of runs could be scored tonight in Baltimore. That is a likely assumption whenever the Yankees' Luis Severino takes the mound, considering he has just one quality start this season and with a 6.86 ERA. Meanwhile Birds starter Chris Tillman labored with a 4.91 ERA vs. the Yanks last season.