Scott Rickenbach
Portland at Golden State
Play: Golden State
The Trail Blazers had their chance in my opinion and they didn't get it done and now it will only get tougher. Portland could have gone into Golden State, caught the Warriors off of a little too much rest (3 days between games) and without Stephen Curry, and gotten the upset. Instead it was another double digit loss and I expect the same tonight. The Warriors are now 5-1 ATS in this post season while the Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in 2nd round playoff games the past three seasons combined. As a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points the Blazers are 2-5 ATS the past three seasons. Getting caught in track meets (first game totaled 224 points) doesn't help Portland either as they are 6-11 ATS when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive overs. The point is that getting in a habit of high-scoring games hurts the Blazers and I don't see them being able to reverse that trend here as Golden State again imposes their will on their home floor. Look for the Warriors to improve to 7-3 ATS this season in home games where they are favored in a range of 9.5 to 12 points.
ASA
Rangers +1½ -126
The Rangers are 14-5 in night games this season. The Blue Jays are 5-12 in night games this year. With yesterday's win over the Jays, the Rangers got some revenge against Toronto for last fall's playoff ouster. Also, the victory improved the Rangers to 11-4 this season in their games against teams with a losing record. We will grab the +1.5 runs here because if Texas does fall short it would likely be because the game turned into a bit of a pitchers duel and the Blue Jays pulled out a tight one-run win. The way the Blue Jays are scoring runs this season, including just 3.3 runs per game in match-ups with left-handed starters, we do not expect the Blue Jays to be able to get any significant winning margin in this game. The Blue Jays have lost 8 of their last 12 games. The Rangers have won 5 of their last 6. Martin Perez toes the rubber for Texas tonight and the southpaw has given up just 17 hits in his last 18 innings on the mound. Though he struggled with control early this season, Perez has walked just 2 batters in each of his last 3 starts. Marco Estrada gets the start for the Blue Jays and he has walked 4 batters in each of his past two starts. The Rangers have averaged 4.5 runs per game in their games against right-handed starters this season. The Rangers are hitting better, playing better overall ball, and continuing to seek revenge for last October. Perez has a WHIP that is right in line with Estrada here. The value is with the dog. We must lay a little juice to have the run and a half but it is a small price to pay for some extra insurance here in a game the Rangers could very well win outright again just like last night.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Miami Heat plus the points against the Toronto Raptors. I love this number and wouldn't be surprised to see the Heat sweep this series. Yes, you heard right.
And the catalyst is this game. Game 1 - the most important game of a series for the lower seed. If the Heat can still this game, that means they can win Game 2 and head back to South Beach with a 2-0 lead in the series.
Both teams showed resiliency in the first round, but there's something I admire about Miami's experience. The Heat know how to win ball games and look like a team on a mission, regardless who is in their way.
Miami will challenge for this one, which could come down to the last team holding the ball.
1* HEAT
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Blazers-Warriors Over the total.
Series numbers dictate a play of the Over in this Portland-Golden State meeting.
Game One easily shattered the price the sharps posted, as the last 7 in this series have all played Over the total.
Each of the last 4 series meetings in Oakland have also landed high, and the High has been the play in 13 of the last 16 series meetings overall.
Portland would stand a better chance of actually winning a game if they were able to slow things down, but right now the Warriors and their shooting simply aren't missing much.
Shaun Livingston may not be Steph Curry, but he has been more than serviceable in his absence.
I like the points to add up to another Over in Oakland tonight.
1* PORTLAND-GOLDEN STATE OVER
Brad Wilton
After last night's pair of semifinal games, that makes 4 games completed as the march to the Finals continues, and the favorite is 3-1 against the spread.
Tack that on to a 27-17 mark for the chalk in the opening round, and the favorite has now covered in 30 of the 48 playoff games this year.
Add another to that list, as it sure looks like Golden State will be OK without Steph Curry at least for this round against the Portland Trail Blazers. The Dubs won by a dozen on Sunday, and a similar final would not be a surprise.
Golden State has now won and covered the last 3 versus Portland, and they are 8-2 straight up the last 10 series meetings, with 8 covers in those 10 meetings.
Overall, the Warriors are 22-7 against the spread the past 29 home meetings with the Blazers.
Curry may be out, but both Thompson and especially Livingston are picking up the slack.
Lay it.
4* GOLDEN STATE
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 49-38 run with free picks: N.Y. Yankees at BALTIMORE (-120)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Huge American League East showdown in Camden Yards, as the New York Yankees are in to visit the Baltimore Orioles, and for as bad as the Bronx Bombers are playing, I have to give the nod to the home team in this game. Don't worry about listing pitchers, as I stated, since the Yankees are playing so bad it won't matter.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The biggest intangible is these Yankees, and the five-game losing streak they come in with. They rank 24th in the bigs with a .234 batting average, and it gets worse on the road, where they're hitting .217, which is the fourth-worst road batting average in the majors. Run production on the road is killing this team, as it ranks dead last with 30 runs scored while ordering room service.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Yankees are in after being swept in Boston, including the Sunday night game, an 8-7 heartbreaker. Baltimore will be hoping to snap a two-game skid, after losing its weekend series at home to American League Central-leader Chicago. The O's are 9-3 at Oriole Park, while the Bombers are 3-8 on the road.
2* BALTIMORE
Executive Sports
Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -4.5
The Toronto Raptors and the Miami Heat went deep into their first round matchups battling through seven games to reach the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Raptors host the Heat in Game 1 on tonight with Toronto winning three of the four meetings during the regular season.
In Miami's series with Charlotte, the Heat had to win both games 6 and 7 to advance. Toronto's series with Indiana went back and for thru the entire series, with Toronto winning game 7 to advance.
Even though Toronto shot less than 39% from the field vs. Indiana, they still managed to capture the series. They out-rebounded Indiana in all 7 games.
Miami also was the rebound leader in their series, as they out-rebounded Charlotte in 6 of the 7 games. The Heat benefited from Charlotte's poor shooting from the field, as they shot 40% or less in 4 of the 7 games.
Tonight's play is on the Toronto Raptors as they are 24-4 SU in their past 28 home games. Home court edge is too much for the Heat.
Dwayne Bryant
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -103
Arizona lefty Patrick Corbin is off two subpar outings. Tonight is a prime bounce-back spot for Corbin, as active Miami hitters own a combined career .167 average (4-for-24, all four hits were singles), .292 SLG, .522 OPS, and .236 wOBA against him.
Miami sends southpaw Justin Nicolino to the mound tonight. Jean Segura is the only active Diamondbacks hitter to have ever faced Nicolino, but he is 3-for-7 with a double and a triple against him. I can see the rest of the Arizona lineup doing similar damage, as they rank as my #3 team against left-handed pitching. Miami is no slouch at hitting lefties either, but they've struggled in limited exposure against Corbin.
Corbin's advanced metrics are pretty solid, making me believe he is a much better pitcher than what we've seen in recent outings. Nicolino's advanced metrics, limited as they may be, are not very good. So I expect the D'backs to hit him pretty well tonight.
I actually like that Nicolino shut out the Dodgers on two hits in 7 1/3 innings in his 2016 debut. He pitched over his head in that one, and may very well be overconfident tonight. Arizona will make him pay.
Neither bullpen is anything special, and they've both been lit up recently. But Arizona's pen has actually been very solid on the road (1.88 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), so I give them the edge here.
All in all, the D'backs look like a good play this evening.
Vegas Butcher
Washington Nationals +110
Both Roark and Young have 23% K-rate, 9% BB-rate, and SIERA’s in the 3.8/4.0 range. Even though Roark’s 2.0 ERA is so much lower than Young’s 6.1 mark, they’re fairly similar pitchers when looking at the metrics I’ve mentioned. But one big discrepancy in the HR/9 rates. Roark’s is at 0.3, with a 51% GB-rate. Young’s is 2.2 HR/9 with only a 32% GB-rate. One keeps the ball on the ground, while the other one is a fly-ball pitcher, who is giving up a lot of HR’s right now. Another key different is that Young’s Hard Hit % is 41%, the 3rd worst park out of 101 qualified starters. By comparison, Roark’s 20% Hard Hit rate is 6th best out of the same sample. Finally I want to point out that Roark’s best pitch has been his changeup this year, a pitch that Royals rank 26th against. By comparison, Young has been using less of his mediocre fastball and more of his slider this season. Of course, Nationals rank 3rd overall in baseball against the pitch. I think once we break these pitchers down to this level it’s pretty evident where the key advantages lie. I’ll grab Nats as a dog in this matchup with confidence.