Free Picks for Tuesday, November 29th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
PREDATORS AT AVALANCHE
PLAY: PREDATORS -135
At first glance, this line seems high, considering Nashville has won only two road games all season. But I like the chances of the Predators grabbing two points tonight as they challenge the Avalanche.
First off, the Preds have gotten hot. They’re on a 7-3 run over their last ten games, and two of the losses are the two games that goalie Pekka Rinne didn’t play. This is a good hockey team and after muddling their way through the early portion of the schedule, it definitely appears that the Predators are starting to get it together.
Colorado is a bad hockey team. The Avalanche are absolutely feeble on offense, having scored a meager 44 goals in 20 games to date. Goalie Calvin Pickard has actually been outstanding for the Avs and he’s basically keeping them in games when he gets the call. Pickard is already confirmed as the starter for this game. His presence worries me a bit, but very little else does about this Avalanche team.
But even with Pickard in goal, I prefer the Nashville side here. The Preds own a big special teams advantage based on recent form and they’re a team that sure looks like it’s heating up. Nashville pretty well dominated Colorado in the one prior meeting this season, and I would not be surprised to see a similar result tonight. I’ll spot the price on the money line with Nashville.
Rob Vinciletti
Hurricanes vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -170
A solid spot for NY Tonight as they look to put an end to a 4 game home losing streak. They have revenge in this game a role in which they have won 7 of the last 9. The Rangers have won 21 of the last 30 on Tuesdays and 8 of the last 10 in this series. Carolina is 0-6 on the road when the total is 5 or less. Look for the Rangers to take this one.
Scott Spreitzer
Pistons vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets -3
Detroit is 1-8 both straight up and ATS on the road with an average losing margin of nearly 15 points in the losses. The Pistons are ranked #24 in the league scoring 97.5 points per game overall and #20 in field goal percentage (.443). Detroit got blown out at Oklahoma City 106-88 on Saturday when even its defense had a bad night allowing the Thunder to shoot 50.6 percent while the Pistons made just one of 19 three-point shot attempts (5.3 percent). Detroit is 1-4 ATS its last five games in Charlotte and the home team has covered the spread the last five meetings. The Hornets beat Memphis 104-85 on Monday night as Kemba Walker scored 21 points and the Grizzlies were held to 40.4 percent shooting. Charlotte has won two straight after losing in overtime at New York on Friday. None of the Charlotte players played more than 34 minutes last night.
Matt Josephs
Samford vs. St. Louis
Play: Samford +2½
I'm not convinced in St. Louis as a basketball team and their only two wins are against Eastern Illinois and Southern Utah. St. Louis has struggled to score with three games of 65 points or less. Samford is back on the road after a tough multiple OT loss to Nicholls State. The Bulldogs already have wins at San Diego and Campbell this season and played New Mexico State and Cincy reasonably tough. They are 15-3 ATS the last three years in non-conference games and 11-2 ATS in November. STL has covered just 11 of their last 30 home games. I think the road team has a good shot in this one.
Ben Burns
Canadiens vs. Ducks
Play: Ducks -115
Given the venue, I feel this is very fair price on the Ducks. While the Canadiens have indeed played very well to start the season, the majority of their success has come at Montreal. When playing on the road, they're a mediocre 4-4. A closer look reveals that they've been outscored by an average of 3.2 to 2.5 in those games, too. On the other hand, the Ducks are outscoring visiting teams by a 3.0 to 2.4 margin here at Anaheim.
Both teams should be fresh. Each had the past two days off and neither plays again tomorrow. That figures to favor Anaheim. Montreal is a modest 22-21 (-3.6) the past 2+ seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. During that same stretch, the Ducks are a profitable 27-15 (+7.1) when playing with two day's rest in between games.
The Ducks were laying -240 when they last hosted the Habs. (Anaheim won 3-2.) In fact, the Ducks were even laying -175 the last time that they played at Montreal. While things have obviously changed since last spring, they haven't changed enough to warrant such a dramatic drop in price.
Power Sports
Iowa vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Iowa
For the second time this year, Iowa comes off an outright loss as a favorite. The first was to Seton Hall, in Iowa City, 91-83 as 1.5-pt chalk. They responded by destroying UT Rio Grande Valley the next time out, 95-67. Off a 100-92 loss to Memphis Saturday, the task will be tougher this time around as they travel to South Bend.
Notre Dame is 6-0 SU, but Iowa marks their most difficult opponent to date. The Fighting Irish did beat both Colorado and Northwestern in Brooklyn last week, but those games were decided by a total of 10 pts. Little can be derived from a weekend tuneup vs. Chicago State. For the record, the Irish are just 4-10 ATS after holding their previous opponent to 60 pts or less. Notre Dame's ACC rival Virginia may have held Iowa in check offensively, but the Irish aren't the Cavaliers on the defensive end.
These teams played LY w/ Notre Dame winning by six on a neutral court (were -1.5). With this being a home game this year, the asking price is obviously higher. Iowa shot only 37.9% in that game overall and just 25% from three-point range. They'll shoot better tonight. I say that because Peter Jok, 2nd in the country in scoring at 29.6 PPG, comes off a 42-point effort vs. Memphis. That was a game the Hawkeyes led w/ 15 mins to go. Were it not for 18 turnovers, one has to think the result would have been different. Take the points here.
Jim Feist
Cavaliers at Bucks
Pick: Under
Defending champion Cleveland knows how to play defense, 7-1-1 under the total on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in the Cavaliers last 14 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Milwaukee plays its best defense at home and the under is 20-6 following a straight up win. The Under is also 13-6-1 in the Bucks last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
Alex Smart
Panthers vs. Blackhawks
Play: Blackhawks -140
Florida just fired their coach, Gallant ,because of so called philisophical differences with management and now the inconsistent Panthers will try to find a way to move forward and upwards. However, for now I believe, they do not have the flow to deal with a Chicago Blackhawks team that plays well at home. Note: Blackhawks are 56-16 in their last 72 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Blackhawks won eight straight against the Panthers before dropping a 4-0 decision last January and Im betting they notch the W here tonight.
Chicago is 33-13 ATS L/46 against lower tier defensive teams - allowing 29 shots or more on goal, and converting 17% or more of power play opportunities . Panthers are 19-41 in their last 60 vs. Central.Panthers are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.The Blackhawks are 8-1-2 at home this season. The Panthers are 4-6-1 on the road.
Andrew Lange
Murray St at Southern Illinois
Play: Over 146.5
Two years ago, Murray State boasted one of most efficient offenses in the country thanks to a host of veterans and point guard Cameron Payne who is currently in the NBA. The Racers played an up-tempo game and routinely produced 80+ points against comparable competition. Following the departure of the aforementioned talent and head coach Steve Prohm, Murray suffered through a rebuilding year where they finished 17-14. New head coach Matt McMahon was forced to adjust the team's philosophers, most notably a much slower offense. Through six games, it looks as if the Racers have returned to a faster brand of basketball as their offensive possessions are over two seconds faster compared to last season. It's resulted in a number of high scoring games: 143, 168, 170, 159, 155, and 145. Southern Illinois head coach Barry Hinson has been vocal about his guard-heavy team playing at a faster clip this season. The Salukis ran up and down against Wright State, Arkansas, and SIU Edwardsville but head into tonight have played back-to-back lower scoring games against Mount St. Mary's and Minnesota. Back at home against a willing opponent, I'd look for SIU to return to a more up-tempo attack. Note that last year's meeting featured 75 possessions with SIU winning at Murray, 88-73. The total of that game closed 141 so there's been an obvious adjustment. That said, expect 72+ possessions with a good chance to hit 150+.
Wunderdog
Iowa @ Notre Dame
Pick: Under 156
Iowa's offense has been streaky, losing two in a row including scoring 41 points against Virginia. It was the fourth straight time they've gone UNDER the total when facing an ACC team and they face another outstanding one here. This is a veteran Notre Dame team playing great defense, undefeated, allowing 66 and 60 points the last two games. Notre Dame upended Northwestern 70-66 in the Legend Classic last Tuesday going UNDER the total. The Irish are 8-3 UNDER the total at home, as well as 10-3 UNDER as a favorite.
Mike Rose
Michigan State at Duke
Play: Duke -10.5
The last time the Michigan State Spartans and Duke Blue Devils collided on the hardwood, Coach K’s kids punched their tickets to the 2015 National Championship Game by ousting Sparty 81-61 in the Final Four. While nowhere near as much will be on the line in this one, each side will no doubt be going all out to help its conference win the Commissioner’s Cup in this year’s Big Ten/ACC Challenge.
While Duke hasn’t been great from downtown to start the season, the Spartans have had major issues defending the 3-ball with it ranked #158. On the flipside, the Blue Devils have only allowed the opposition to convert just over 25% of its long range shots. The 3-pointer has been a major source of points for MSU with it averaging 27.9 points per game from long range. If Duke is able to limit them from deep, scoring the basketball could become a major issue for the visitors with the Blue Devils allowing just over 63 points per game.
The Spartans already failed their biggest test of the season against a young but very talented Kentucky team. That game occurred at a neutral venue. I’m not sure Bridges and company are ready for what awaits them with the “Cameron Crazies” ready to wreak havoc from the opening tip. MSU is going to be pretty darn good the closer we get to March, but I don’t foresee them being able to stand toe-to-toe with the Dookies on Tuesday night.
Syracuse at Wisconsin
Play: Under 124.5
The Orange have been getting it done at the defensive end of the court. Their 2-3 zone has limited the opposition to an average of just 54.8 points per game and a 32 percent success rate from the field; each stat ranks out at #4 in the country. It’s also outrebounded its opposition by 9.0 rebounds per game (# 22).
These teams’ last five games have combined to average just 125.6 PPG. Not surprisingly, the under is a perfect 5-0 in those contests with each unable to even threaten the closing total. Possessions will be hard to come by in this tilt with Syracuse averaging less than 70 per game and Wiscy checking in at 67.0 per game. The scoreboard operators won’t be getting much work in with each of these clubs slowing the game down to a crawl.
Wiscy took last year’s meeting in the Carrier Dome by a 66-58 final count. Only 124 points hit the board in that contest and it took an overtime session to get it there. Still, it combined to go under the 130 point total. So long as another overtime isn’t in the cards, another low scorer is highly likely.
Buster Sports
Tampa Bay at Columbus
Play: Columbus -123
The Blue Jackets have been playing great hockey so far this year and it seems like coach John Tortorella has them playing the type of hockey he brought to the New York Rangers some years ago. They have solid goaltending with Sergei Bobrovsky just like Torts had with Henrik Lundquist and they are playing total team first hockey which is a trademark of Tortorella teams ( with the exception of Vancouver the one year). As for the Lightning they have been really hurt by injuries as superstar Steven Stamkos is out again and now for tonights game LW Ondrej Palat and D Anton Stralman will most likely be also sidelined. The Blue Jackets on Friday night really manhandled the Lightning in Tampa Bay with a 5-3 victory. We see more of the same tonight. At the time of this writing, Columbus was a minus 123 favorite and we are more than happy to lay this small number considering the value with the Blue Jackets tonight. Backing our selection is the fact that Columbus are 7-2 in their last 9 home games.
David Banks
Michigan St. +10.5
Tom Izzo and the 24th-ranked Spartans travel to Durham, N.C., to take on the sixth-ranked Blue Devils in a game that Izzo hopes will pay off later in the season. Michigan State is just 4-3 on the season thus far, but all three losses have been to ranked teams. MSU has lost to Arizona, Kentucky, and Baylor. Most recently, the Spartans defeated Wichita State, 77-72, to win the third-place game at the Battle for Atlantis tournament.
Izzo, whose team exited early from last year’s NCAA tournament, is relying on 6-7 freshman Miles Bridges and he hasn’t let his coach down. Bridges leads the Spartans in scoring (17.4 ppg) and rebounds (8.7 rpg). Veteran Eron Harris, a senior, adds 12.7 points a game. What Izzo and Michigan State lack is a quality big man.
The Blue Devils, 6-1 thus far, have several quality big men. The problem for long-time Duke coach Mike Krzyzewksi is that those big men have been hurt. His super freshman trio of 6-8 Jayson Tatum, 6-10 Harry Giles, and 6-11 Marques Bolden has yet to play a game and they will not play Tuesday night against the Spartans. Still, Duke is strong with veterans Luke Kennard (17.1 ppg) and Grayson Allen (16.1) leading the way. Frank Jackson, another freshman, is averaging 16 per game.
Alex Smith
Nashville at Colorado
Play: Nashville -135
Two Central Division foes face off tonight in the Mile High City as the Colorado Avalanche host the Nashville Predators. Both clubs are sitting near the bottom of the division with the home team Avs dead-last at 19 points; four points behind Nashville. The Predators however are a team that is trending upwards as of late winning seven of their last 10 contests after a slow start to the season. Veteran netminder Pekka Rinne has been hot between the pipes winning seven of his last eight starts and posting a 1.98 goals-against on the short season. Rinne also holds a 16-7-2 lifetime record versus Colorado with a 2.28 gaa and .914 save percentage. The Avalanche are last in the division for several reasons, most notably a lack of consistent offense along with allowing opponents to take a ton of shots on goal. Colorado has scored just 44 goals in 20 contests thus far which is second-worst in the NHL. Defensively, the Avs have yielded 30 or more shots in six of their last seven games overall including 40+ in three of their last four. This price is should be a lot higher based on my power ratings which means Nashville holds value as the moderately price road chalk.