Chris Jordan
My free winner for Tuesday night is on the Villanova Wildcats, as I love the defending National Champs to dismantle the Pennsylvania Quakers in Big 5 play.
The Wildcats take the court after a much-needed break for Thanksgiving, and bring a perfect 6-0 mark with them.
Ranked second in the nation, you have to be impressed with how well the defending champs have played without starting guard Phil Booth.
Senior Josh Hart, a preseason Associated Press All-American, recently posted his first double-double of the campaign, and comes in averaging 18.2 points per game through six outings.
After playing six games in 13 days, then taking off a couple days to enjoy Thanksgiving, before practicing on Saturday, look for a re-energized Villanova team to roll here.
5* VILLANOVA
Eric Schroeder
Though the Saint Louis Billikens come into their game against the Samford Bulldogs just 2-3 on the season, the mismatch is apparent when you take a look at the programs.
Saint Louis is in after last week's Men Who Speak Up Main Event tournament here in Las Vegas, where the Billikens hung tough with BYU, trailing by just five with 10 minutes left. Granted, the Cougars pulled away to win by 30, with the 92-62 victory, but against Alabama two days later, the Billikens led by nine points with five minutes left. They lost that game by 5, eventually losing 62-57.
Time to take out frustrations, and Samford is the patsy. And this is a great spot for Saint Louis, which will take full advantage of a tired Bulldogs team that is in the midst of a busy schedule. This will be their fifth game in nine days.
Lay the low chalk with the Billikens here.
2* ST. LOUIS
Brett Atkins
Tuesday's comp play will be the Hornets at home over the Pistons.
Charlotte appears to be out of their mini-funk, as they have followed 4 straight losses with back-to-back wins, including a solid 104-85 romp at Memphis their last time on court.
Detroit has not played since Saturday when they got mopped up at Oklahoma City by a full 18-points! The Pistons have now lost their last 3 away from the Motor City both straight up and against the spread.
Charlotte is on a 7-3 straight up and against the spread run their last 10 meetings with Detroit. That includes wins and covers in 4 of the last 5 played in North Carolina.
With the Pistons struggling on the road, look for series numbers that favor the Hornets to hold form tonight.
Charlotte the call.
4* CHARLOTTE
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play is the Cavs over the Bucks.
The Cavaliers have quietly won 4 in a row, and have covered in 3 of those 4 wins.
Tonight they play in Milwaukee against a Bucks team that has dropped 6 of their last 9 games entering Tuesday play.
Cleveland hasn't been pressed too hard by Milwaukee in recent meetings, as the Cavaliers have claimed 3 straight and 6 of the past 8 straight up against the Bucks, and have covered in 2 of the most recent 3 showdowns.
As long as Cleveland is interested in extending their winning ways, there is little reason to back the Bucks here, even on their home floor.
Going to lay it with the Cavs.
3* CLEVELAND
Bob Valentino
My free pick for tonight is on the Los Angeles Lakers, plus the points against the New Orleans Pelicans.
After slumbering through a 1-4 slide, culminating with back-to-back losses to the Golden State Warriors, the Lakers responded Sunday with a 109-94 win over the Atlanta Hawks.
I'm still convinced this 8-8 squad will challenge for an 8-seed in the Western Conference, while I'm not so sure the Pelicans will be anywhere close to the postseason come April.
New Orleans returns home after losing road games in Portland and Dallas, falling by 15 and 10, respectively. I love Anthony Davis. I don't trust the Pelicans' defense against teams like this.
I think the Lakers will press the offensive issue and will challenge the Pelicans long enough to pull off the outright win.
5* LAKERS
TEDDY DAVIS
Georgia Tech vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -7
Both of these teams are young and will have growing pains throughout the season. I do like what I have seen from Penn St here recently with a nice road win @ George Washington who is no slouch. This will be Georgia Tech's first true road game and I just see them struggling here big time. They haven't played much competition to start the season. This might look like a lot for team like Penn St, but I believe they cover this pretty handily.
BRANDON LEE
Houston -4
The Cougars are a perfect 6-0 to start the season and are one of the more underrated teams in the country under head coach Kelvin Sampson. Houston has played an easy schedule early, but were tested on a neutral court against a very good Vermont team that is expected to win the American East. LSU still getting some love from all the attention they got last year with Ben Simmons, but this is a team in a major rebuilding mode. The Tigers couldn't make the NCAA Tournament last year without one of the best players in the country and won't be dancing without him. LSU has been tested twice and failed in both instances, losing 47-82 to Wichita State and 74-85 to VCU. Playing at home won't be enough for them to keep the Cougars from winning here by 5+ points.
DAVE PRICE
Milwaukee Bucks +7.5
This is another flat spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They were flat on Sunday against the Philadelphia 76ers on the road and were fortunate to escape with a 112-108 victory as 11-point favorites. Now they are laying 7.5 points against a much better Bucks team that is 5-4 at home and winning by 3.8 points per game. The Cavs have huge games ahead against the Clippers on Thursday and Bulls on Friday. I think they could be caught looking ahead to those contests. The Cavs will get a big effort from the Bucks because they are the defending champs. And the Bucks have played two of the best teams in the NBA very tough recently. They only lost by 3 at home to the Warriors and by 6 at home to the Raptors within the past 10 days. The Cavs are 1-8 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 days rest.
JACK JONES
New Orleans Pelicans -5.5
The New Orleans Pelicans looked to have gotten it together with a four-game winning streak. But then they went on the road and have lost back-to-back road games to the Blazers and Mavericks. They return home here and the price is right to back them as only 5-point favorites.
The Pelicans are still 4-2 since Jrue Holiday returned to the lineup. Their wins came by 12 points over Portland, by 5 over Charlotte, by 18 at Atlanta and by 21 over Minnesota. They are now scoring 110.7 points per game at home, and their defense is playing much better of late, holding five of their last seven opponents to 101 points or fewer.
The Los Angeles Lakers are certainly improved this season, but they are in a tricky spot here. They have played a gauntlet of a schedule with six straight games against the Spurs, Bulls, Thunder, Warriors (twice) and Hawks. They are coming off a big home win over Atlanta, and now they're primed for a letdown spot here.
Plus, the Lakers are without arguably their best player in D'Angelo Russell, and fellow starter Julius Randle is questionable with a hip injury. And the Pelicans are certainly going to be out for revenge from a 99-126 loss to the Lakers in their first meeting this season.
The Lakers are 12-23 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 14-26 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog over the last two years. The Lakers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.
JIMMY BOYD
Pittsburgh +4.5
Maryland comes into this game sitting at 7-0, but just as easily could be 4-3. The Terps were extremely fortunate to pull out wins at Georgetown (76-75) and on a neutral setting against both Richmond (88-82 OT) and Kansas State (69-68) Maryland trailed by 9 with less than 3 minutes to play in their win over the Hoyas, they had to overcome a double-digit halftime deficit in OT win against the Spiders and were down 3 with less than a minute to play against the Wildcats. I think the value here is clearly with the Panthers, who I think have an excellent shot at winning this game outright.
Pitt has an inside force in senior forwards Michael Young and Jamel Artis, Young is averaging 23.3 ppg and 8.2 rpg, while Jamel Artis is close behind at 19.3 ppg. These two should have their way against the Terps down low and the Panthers defense has the size and athleticism to slow down Melo Trimble, who has been carry Maryland early on. Trimble is averaging 21.1 ppg, while no other player is averaging more than 12.0 ppg.
This one should be close throughout and while the Terps do have an edge playing at home, I think the Panthers are the better all-around team in this one and there's too much value here to pass up. Note that Maryland is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 non-conference home games and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after a SU win.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO -½ +140 over Florida
Regulation only. Starting goalie Corey Crawford has a terrific .929 even-strength save percentage for his career and may be the league's most under-appreciated goalie. He is currently boasting an absurd .955 mark. Spanning out a bit, some of the Blackhawks' issues have been covered up by their crazy-good goaltending. They rank 16th in goals for per 60 minutes at even strength, and 11th in Corsi for percentage. Now that Jonathan Toews is out and Chicago returns home from a seven-game trip and Florida has the “first game with a new coach” angle working, the price on the Blackhawks here is deflated, which makes us instant buyers. Chicago can compensate for the loss of Toews with an abundance of skilled forwards. We’ll discuss the Blackhawks more at a later time but for now, this one is all about fading the Panthers.
The first game for a new coach is one that usually provides a boost of energy but this one might have the opposite effect. Gerald Gallant was a player’s coach. Gallant is a traditional hockey guy. He’s done it at every level. He’s paid his dues. His credo is to keep it simple, work hard, and do things the right way. Players absolutely love him. He was fired on Sunday following an offseason of major roster turnover despite a division title. He was fired while keeping his team afloat with significant injuries, including Jonathan Huberdeau, who is out months with a leg injury. He was fired after guiding his team to a 6-4 record in its past 10, and keeping them within two points of a playoff spot.Making it worse are the photos of Gallant waiting for a cab outside the arena in Carolina. Gallant was kicked to the curb to wait for his own ride home.Hockey has a culture of doing things the right way and this wasn’t it. Gallant, at the very least, deserved a ride to wherever he wanted to go next and that’s the absolute least. Panthers’ management will pay a price for the treatment of Gallant and it could easily come over the next few games. The Panthers have the right to hire and fire whomever they like. They’re not wrong in making a change but the biggest mistake in this move was the way it was handled. You cannot take the human element out of anything and the way that Gallant was let go cannot be sitting well with anyone in that dressing room. A big response on the ice is not the way you show disapproval and we trust that’s what’s in store for this game tonight. We’re betting the Panthers have a bad reaction (poor performance) to the way Gallant was treated.
Carolina +158 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Carolina Hurricanes are once again among the puck possession leaders. It is rare to see them get outplayed and they also dominate other areas as well. They are the best face-off team in the NHL, meaning they are usually controlling things after the puck drops, which happens 40 to 50 times a game on average. The ‘Canes also rank #1 in penalty killing. On defense, however, is where the Hurricanes really shine. They've been able to find diamonds in the rough with later-round picks, and have built up an impressive amount of defensive depth throughout their system. Too much emphasis is being put on Jordan Staal’s injury here and while Staal will be missed, the ‘Canes system is built around every player contributing. This wager is now twofold in that Carolina should not be taking back prices like this against anyone and the Rangers cannot be priced in this range against them.
The Rangers started off as a really strong puck-possession team but it was short-lived after coaches had film of what the Rangers were trying to do. Over the last month, New York’s puck possession numbers are even worse than last year, where they went into the playoffs and were absolutely destroyed by the Penguins. The Rangers are now 15-8 and have the second most points in the league. We even saw one publication last week post the Rangers #1 in their power rankings. That is further proof of results having a bigger influence than performance. Calling the Rangers the best team in the NHL is embarrassing to that publication. The Rangers are the luckiest team in the NHL in the most luck-driven sport of the major four (hockey, basketball, baseball and football). In no other sport do teams get dominated on a nightly basis and emerge victorious. This past Friday, Philadelphia outshot the Rangers 42-23, out-chanced them, 24-12 and had a dominating puck possession edge of 63% to 37% but New York won, 3-2. Prior to back-to-back games against Pittsburgh last week, the Rangers lost to Columbus and Florida. Prior to that, they defeated Vancouver but were outshot 38-25. In their recent 3-1 win over Edmonton last week, the Rangers were outshot 37-29. The list goes on of games in which the Rangers have been outplayed and out-chanced and ended up winning. Their 12.4 percent even-strength shooting percentage is also a major outlier, so they’re likely in for some serious regression when that lucky number inevitably comes down. As a big favorite here, the Rangers will very likely get out-played. That alone prompts us to step in.
Buffalo +130 over OTTAWA
OT included. Past the quarter mark of the season already and the Senators are without question this year’s biggest surprise so far with 14 victories in 22 games. Ottawa is also hot right now with four consecutive wins, which includes a 4-3 victory in Montreal and a 2-0 victory over New York on Sunday. However, Craig Anderson has been playing out of his mind and the numbers say that regression is inevitable. In those four aforementioned wins, Ottawa posted 23, 26, 24 and 20 shots on net respectively while surrendering 33 or more or three of the four. In 15 of their 22 games this season, the Sens have lost the puck possession battle and also lost the high quality scoring chances battle. Ottawa is not a weak team that should be losing every night, as they do some things very well but they are not a top-5 team and winning games is not sustainable when you’re the second best team on the ice so often.
It really does not matter how Jack Eichel performs here in his season debut because his mere presence on the ice is worth so much more. Eichel is an impact player for sure but he’s also a team leader that has earned the respect and admiration of every single player on that Sabres bench. Buffalo has suffered without their leader but they have been competitive and figure to have a little extra jump in their step here. With Eichel, the Sabres are going to be dramatically better and we can think of all the possibilities that give them a fast-forwarded result. O’Reilly should continue to be a Corsi hound while producing points. Sam Reinhart is starting to play like the player he looked like at the World Junior Championships. Rasmus Ristolainen is starting to harness the kind of talent that had people at the Stanley Cup final thinking he could develop like Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman. Evander Kane makes a difference every time he’s on the ice. Not many folks watch the Sabres but the entertainment value should go through the roof with Eichel back and the other players picking up their game but more importantly, their stock is so low that the value on them has not been this good in a very long time. Keep your eye on the Sabres, as there is great profit potential and it likely starts here.
Montreal +104 over ANAHEIM
OT included. We’re not going to go into a lot of details here because it’s not necessary. Goaltending decides more games than anything else in the NHL and that means Carey Price always gives the Canadiens a better chance of winning than losing. The Habs are solid all around but Price pushes them to a level that is hard to match. The explanation for Montreal’s success may be as simple as the return and high-end play of Price, but there are some people in hockey who believe the subtraction of P.K. Subban has been a real positive for that dressing room. Shea Weber has been everything the Canadiens had hoped for.
The coaching change from Bruce Boudreau to Randy Carlyle has not been a good one for the Ducks and things might get worse. Anaheim is now two games under .500 at 10-12. There is always player movement and line juggling. The constant tweaks that Carlyle tries to make are taking a toll and so are the trade rumors. Randy Carlyle is not coaching material. He fluked a Stanley Cup with Anaheim a few years ago but it was not his doing; he was just the beneficiary of landing there at the right time. While we like the personnel of the Ducks, we have never liked Carlyle will never do anything significant again under him. This is one game in which of course anything can happen but give us Price versus Gibson 100% of the time when taking back a tag and give us the dressing room in a much better frame of mind. Incidentally, Anaheim is 1-6 versus top-10 teams.
Arizona +201 over SAN JOSE
OT included. The Sharks are indeed capable of repeating as Western Conference champs but that does not mean they can’t be beat and it does not mean that they’re worthy of prices like this on a Tuesday night game in late November. For one, the Sharks are scoring goals at a rate not nearly high enough to warrant these prices and they’re not in great form either with a 3-4 record over their past seven games. Coming off a long, grinding postseason run, San Jose will be flat in several games this year both at home and on the road and so the reward here is greater than the risk.
Quietly, the Coyotes are heating up by picking up points in five of their last six games. Mike Smith has been playing at a high level since returning from an injury and as long as you get good goaltending, you always have a chance to win in this league. The ‘Yotes are creating plenty of chances too with 36 shots on net or more and 24 scoring chances or more in three of their last five games. Arizona possesses an outstanding group of puck moving defensemen. New additions to the defense Jakob Chychrun and Tony DeAngelo look promising and they join two other great defensemen in Michael Stone and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. There are pieces here to compete every single night and now that their confidence is higher and they’re playing well after a slow start, we’re not going to pass up prices like this on the Coyotes when their chances of winning are legit. Overlay.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +20 over CREIGHTON
The Creighton Bluejays have ascended to remarkable plateaus since starting off 6-0 this season. The Bluejays find themselves ranked in the Top-10 for the third time in school history since 1949. Along the way the Jays have taken down some reputable competition already this year including Wisconsin, Washington State, NC State and Mississippi. Undefeated, ranked teams are good fades usually because there is always a premium to back them, especially when the opponent’s pedigree is not a strong one. Although the Bluejays can score points in bushels, they rank among the worst in offensive rebounds while posting marginal numbers in free-throw percentage and defending the three-ball. In essence, this is a Creighton squad that lives and dies by having a hot night from beyond the arc and that is a dangerous game to play when spotting this amount of points. Teams’ that rely on hot shooting often find themselves in a hole and although they get out of it, it’s not where you want to be sitting when you’re down 19 before the tip off.
The Buffalo Bulls are a two-time defending MAC Champion and have qualified for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament in the previous two years. This is a basketball team that has won 62 games in the previous three seasons combined and as a #14 seed last year, they went tit for tat with a Miami Hurricanes squad that hovered around the Top 10 all through the 2015-16 season when they were ousted in the first round. Buffalo by no means is a lightweight at this time. Buffalo has a beast on the court in Blake Hamilton who can aid the Bulls in both the scoring and boards initiatives when he gets into a groove. Furthermore, Buffalo is a stalwart on defense and in rebounding. The Bulls rank among the best in opponent field goal percentage (53rd) and they are one of the best in creating second chances as they are 33rd nationally in offensive rebounds. The Bulls are coming off a loss to fellow NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament qualifier in Weber State. Buffalo plays sound defense and it also fundamentally sounds, which allows them to match-up beautifully with Creighton, a team that is just a cold night away from being upset by another team that can exploit their weaknesses. This may be the prime scenario but more importantly, if the Jays run cold anytime during these 40 minutes, Buffalo will be in prime position to cover and if the Jays are hot all game, Buffalo can still cover.
Harry Bondi
LSU +4.5 over Houston
Houston is undefeated but have not played a quality opponent. Cougars barely got by Vermont 72-71 before hammering the Ivy leagues worst team, Cornell, 83-53 in their last two games while LSU was battling two of the country’s toughest teams in underrated Old Dominion squad and Top 10 team Wichita State. Tigers are 5-0 this season at home in the always tough to play in Maravich Center while this is Houston’s first real road game. Take the Tigers to give the Cougars their first loss of the season.
Bob Balfe
Williams & Mary +1
Central Michigan is going to miss their top 3 players from last year. The Chippewas got a nice transfer pick up in Marcus Keene, but just lack overall depth to hang with a very deep and talented Tribe roster. William and Mary won this matchup last season on the Tribes home court and I just don’t think anything changes tonight with Fowler, Simons and Simmons gone from last year’s squad. It’s just too many points off the board that I don’t think can be made up by the roll players for CMU tonight.