Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, April 12th, 2017

Jim Feist

Rangers vs. Canadiens
Play: Under 5

Both teams are strong on defense and have head coaches who preach getting back to help on defense. New York is #12 in goals allowed, Montreal is #4. The under is 9-4-1 when the Rangers face a team with a winning record. Montreal is 18-7-6 under the total, 7-3-2 under at home. And the under is 9-4-2 in the last 15 meetings in Montreal.

DAVE COKIN

FLAMES VS. DUCKS
PLAY: DUCKS -165

Those of you who check in to see what I’m doing with the daily free plays are undoubtedly aware that I very rarely lay any big prices. I’m far more underdog or small chalk oriented. But I won’t just simply refuse to spot a good sized money line favorite piece if the numbers are overwhelming, and they are all of that here.

27-0, or 0-27 depending on your perspective. The Anaheim Ducks have defeated the Calgary Flames 27 straight times when these teams meet at Anaheim.

That amazing streak alone pretty much eliminated any consideration for the Flames in this series. I suppose one can argue that if they can simply steal a game at The Pond, maybe the burden of failure gets lifted and Calgary suddenly has a great chance to pull the series upset. I guess I can’t argue against that. But one might also suggest that they’re got to be mentally beaten quickly if the struggles at Anaheim are maintained.

I also factored current form into this decision. The Ducks are entering the playoffs on a big roll. Anaheim went 11-3 to finish the regular season, and garnered at least one point in each of the last 14 games.

This is a veteran Ducks team that is heading into the playoffs red hot. Add in the astounding dominance at home against the Flames and I actually think -165 is arguably a little less than it ought to be. I’m making a series play on Anaheim.

Alex Smith

Series - St. Louis Blues +130

The Minnesota Wild battle the St. Louis Blues in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs starting Wednesday. These two clubs hooked up back in 2014 with the Wild taking the series in six games under head coach Mike Yeo who is now the bench boss for the Blues.

St. Louis knew they would have to make some changes after losing in the Western Conference finals last May. They brought in Yeo to be the associate coach-in-waiting as longtime leader Ken Hitchcock was planning to call it a career after this season. When the Blues lost 7 of 11 games heading into the All-Star break and suffered a bad loss in their first contest back, management went ahead and fired Hitchcock and promoted Yeo on February 1. This move paid off quickly as St. Louis won 22 of its final 32 games to reach 99 points and clinch a sixth consecutive playoff berth. Yeo's mantra has always been defense and that was a weakness for the Blues prior to his promotion. Since Yeo took over, St. Louis has improved in all areas of backchecking and goaltending with a league-best 1.87 GAA, .936 save pct., and a 88.5% mark in penalty killing. The re-acquisition of forward Vladimir Sobotka helped boost an already talent-rich group of wingers. Led by Vladimir Tarasenko's 39-goal, 75-point season, along with Jaden Schwartz (19 goals, 55 points) and Alex Steen (16 goals, 51 points), St. Louis finished eighth in the NHL in power plays with a 21.3% conversion rate.

The Wild looked to be one of the best clubs in the NHL for most of the first half. With a franchise record 12-game winning streak at the end of the 2016 calendar year and a league-leading 69 points at the All-Star break, it appeared first-year head coach Bruce Boudreau was well on his way to a division title. But things started to get shaky around early February, and looked very bleak in March, when Minnesota went on a 3-10-2 tailspin. They were knocked out of the top spot in the Central Division and Western Conference though did manage to clinch home ice thanks to a four-game winning streak to close out the regular season. The MVP for the club is without question veteran Eric Staal. The 31-year old winger was acquired in the off-season to complement the likes of Zach Parise and Mikael Granlund. Staal led the Wild with 28 goals and ranked second on the team with 65 points; only four back of Granlund. Parise missed some time with a pair of injuries which allowed for other forwards to step up and contribute (Nino Niederreiter 25 goals, 57 points; Charlie Coyle 18 goals, 56 points.

The goaltending battle will be the key to the series. St. Louis’ Jake Allen struggled at times early in the year, but battled back to retain his starting job and finished the season with 33 wins and a 2.42 GAA. Minnesota’s Devan Dubnyk had a very solid year and could be a strong contender for the Vezina Trophy. With 40 wins, five shutouts and a .923 save percentage, "Dubs" carried this club on his pads when the offense faltered. His numbers however against St. Louis aren't promising. The veteran netminder is 10-16 lifetime versus the Blues with a 2.80 GAA and a .884 save percentage. With the strength of St. Louis' special teams, they have a big edge in this series as a strongly balanced club that can certainly pressure Minnesota on both ends of the ice. We've seen a string of talented Wild clubs succeed in the regular season only to unravel in the playoffs. Boudreau’s team have had eight first or second round playoff exits and is 1-7 all-time in Game 7's. This matchup of an underachieving coach leading an underachieving team should prove to be fruitful for the Blues. And one has to think that Yeo would love to lead the charge into sending his old club to an early tee time. At a plus price, I'm backing the St. Louis Blues to beat the Minnesota Wild and advance to Western Conference semifinals.

Jesse Schule

Sharks vs. Oilers
Play: Over 5

The Edmonton Oilers finished second in the Pacific Division, just four points ahead of San Jose. They will host the Sharks in the first round of the playoffs, and Game 1 goes Wednesday night at Rexall Place. Both these teams play an exciting brand of hockey, and I expect to see plenty of scoring in the series opener. The over was 3-0-2 in five meetings in the season series, and the two teams combined to score 13 goals in two games in Edmonton. The Oilers captain Connor McDavid led the NHL in scoring with 100 points this season, and the Sharks Brett Burns was the league's top scoring defenseman. The Sharks went all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals last season, and they opened the post-season with a 4-3 win over the Kings. I expect a similar score here in Game 1 in Edmonton.

DAVE COKIN

NETS VS. BULLS
PLAY: NETS +15

Brooklyn will be turning to some backups for its finale at Chicago. The Nets are sitting six guys and Chicago will qualify for the playoffs with a win.

So it’s a given that the Bulls should win this game. But winning and covering a number this high is another story entirely.

The Nets that are in action on Wednesday night are very likely to play hard in an attempt to pull the gigantic upset. At least that’s my thought, as we’ve all seen the effort this team has been making down the stretch in spite of none of the games having any real meaning.

The task for the Bulls is simple enough. Just win the game. The margin doesn’t matter. I have no plans on taking the monster money line shot with the underdog, but at +15 or perhaps even more as this game gets to post time, I’m looking at placing a wager on the Nets to slip inside the huge spread.

Scott Rickenbach

Tampa Bay at New York
Play: New York -110

The Rays Blake Snell has good stuff but he continues to struggle with command of his pitches. He walked 5 and gave up 5 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings in his first start this season. The southpaw has walked 9 Yankees in the 13 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. The lefty is likely to be outdueled Wednesday afternoon by Jordan Montgomery. The young Yanks southpaw definitely earned his spot in the rotation and had impressive stats as he elevated from level to level in the minors. After a very strong spring training as well, I am confident he's going to give a strong start today against a Rays team that is an ugly 14-23 when playing with a day off. Also, even if Montgomery doesn't go super deep into this game, the Yankees bullpen is well rested and has been fantastic so far this season. The Yanks are 28-15 the last 3 seasons combined when they are a home favorite in a price range of -100 to -125 and I see great line value with them here as Snell's struggles continue and Montgomery gives the Rays lineup (just 2 hits Monday) a lot of trouble in this one!

Stephen Nover

Bruins vs. Senators
Play: Bruins -125

What does it say when the Bruins are favored in this Game 1 despite being on the road and losing all four regular-season meetings to the Senators? It tells us the oddsmaker believes Boston is the superior team. I agree. The Bruins are the more experienced playoff team, have the better goalie in Tukka Rask over Craig Anderson and hold huge edges in special teams. The Bruins are the top penalty-killing unit in the NHL. They also ranked seventh in power play scoring percentage. Ottawa rates 22nd in penalty killing and 23rd in power play scoring percentage. Boston is better, too, offensively. Brad Marchand and David Pastmak are the two best goal scorers in the game. The Senators were held to just 28 goals during their last 15 games. The Bruins are much better since Bruce Cassidy took over going 20-8-1 since then. Yes, Ottawa did go 4-0 versus the Bruins in the regular season but each of those games could have gone either way. Now, when the pressure really is on, I see the Bruins prevailing.

Matt Josephs

Reds vs. Pirates
Play: Under 8

Amir Garrett made a successful MLB debut for the Reds. He held the Cardinals to two hits and two walks in six innings. Garrett now heads to Pittsburgh to face Ivan Nova and the Pirates. Nova gave up an unearned run and six hits in six innings at home to Atlanta. Ray Searage has done great things with the former Yankees starter so now he's harnessed control issues and is pitching better. Nova is 3-2 with a 3.82 ERA and a WHIP of 1.061 in five career starts against the Reds. The Pirates have seen lefties twice this season and are hitting .125 against them. The Reds bullpen is pitching better then we expected so far. My worry will be that the real one shows up and they have to cover 2 or 3 innings for Garrett. Both teams are posting decent to solid offensive numbers, but I like both of these starters. I think this one goes under the total.

Ray Monohan

Padres vs. Rockies
Play: Under 12

The Padres and Rockies match up again on Wednesday afternoon and Vegas is just giving too many runs. Kyle Freeland will be making his second career start for the Rockies. He looked impressive in his first start going six innings and giving up only one run. He will be facing a Padres team that has problems scoring runs at times. (Pitching change Zach Lee gets the start) In six of the eight games this season they have scored four runs or less. The Rockies do have a good offense but have been struggling a bit as of late. They have scored four runs or less in five of the last six games. Some trends to note. Under is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Colorado. This is just too many runs for the two teams to score.

Rob Vinciletti

St. Louis vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -160

The Wild are 6-1 with 3 or more days rest and have home loss revenge in this game. In games where the total is 5 or less Minnesota has won 18 of 23. The home team in the Series with St. Louis has won 4 of the last 5. The Wild are number 2 in the league in home scoring and they have one of the most potent power plays. The Blues have a few guys who are injured and many not even play. We will back the home team in game one.

SPORTS WAGERS

Series - OTTAWA +165 over Boston

Wednesday April 10, 7:05 PM EST. In terms of value, this one probably offers up the most on the board because from our vantage point, Ottawa should not be a dog in this series and absolutely should not be a dog in this price range. For starters, the Senators have home ice advantage and were consistently good all season long both at home and on the road. By contrast, the Bruins battled mediocrity all season and almost missed the playoffs altogether. Secondly, Guy Boucher has the Senators playing an effective system that has given the Bruins issues. The Senators swept the season series 4-0. The teams played each other twice in the final weeks of the season and they were huge games both times with Ottawa completing the sweep with a 2-1 shootout win last Thursday at TD Garden in Boston. Psychologically, Ottawa has an absolute edge.

So, once again, market perception comes into play. Boston has playoff pedigree and market familiarity while Ottawa has neither. The Bruins also have recognizable names (and talent) like Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, David Backes, Zdeno Chara and Tuukka Rask. That, too, has influence on the price but Ottawa can match up with great talent of their own that nobody talks about. Mark Stone isn’t good, he’s great. So, too, are Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman. Derick Brassard, Alexandre Burrows Zack Smith and Viktor Stalberg give the Sens grit and plenty of secondary scoring.

While one must respect the B’s firepower and experience, they could be in serious trouble without the services of defenseman Torey Krug, who suffered a lower-body injury against the Senators on Thursday, missed the season finale and was seen using crutches on Saturday. Bruins rookie D Brandon Carlo suffered an upper-body injury and missed the final two periods on Saturday. Bruins GM Don Sweeney said Krug and Carlo will not start the series, so the team signed D Charlie McAvoy to a three-year, entry-level contract on Monday. He practiced with the team and will make his NHL debut in Game 1. Zdeno Chara is slower than ever. The Bruins defense is a big liability here, which is likely goimg to be the difference in this series.

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that the Senators are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NHL. Hell, there were even tickets available for their playoff games, which is unheard of in Canada. Ottawa is Canada’s forgotten team but they’re good, they’re resilient and they have outstanding talent throughout along with solid goaltending. At worst, Ottawa is a 50/50 proposition to win this series and once again it all comes down to playing value. That value is resonating from the Sens.

Series - Nashville +171 over CHICAGO

If you’re a hockey fan, you’re probably in a playoff pool of some sort and if you have already attended your draft, chances are that a bunch of Blackhawks went in the first round. If you’re draft is tonight (Tuesday), you’ll likely see the same thing. That’s another representation of the market. What you’re going to read about is how Chicago has haunted the Predators for years and how Nashville cannot beat this team. Nashville won just one of their five meetings against the Blackhawks this season. The Preds also faced the Blackhawks in the 2010 and 2015 playoffs and lost both times but in both cases, the Blackhawks went on to win the Stanley Cup. Yes indeed, this market figures the Blackhawks can't lose but we're not so sure.

These are not the same Blackhawks as those other teams. Chicago has depth and experience but they also have flaws. For one, its defense is slower with both Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook having lost a step or two. Chicago gives up a TON of scoring chances that put them in the same range as the Islanders, Canucks, Stars, Leafs and Coyotes this past season. That’s a major concern that instantly reveals the risk of spotting such a big price with them. Chicago was projected for big regression this year but they rode a hot start to a strong point total. However, they closed the year by going just 9-8 in its final 17 games and that’s when teams were in playoff battle mode. Playing the 28th ranked strength of schedule out of 30 teams, the Blackhawks played .500 hockey (11-11) against top-10 competition and two of those victories occurred in extra time. The Blackhawks are dangerous but they’re also vulnerable. Corey Crawford doesn’t exactly make anyone feel secure either.

The Predators don’t have Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews but what they do have is one of the most productive bluelines in the NHL. Ryan Ellis, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm, and Roman Josi all produced. The quartet of blue liners get a ton of playing time, as each of them averages over 23 minutes of ice time per game. Few teams can match up against their defensemen, which could be a huge advantage for them. Matt Irwin provides solid defensive depth. Their forwards have been heating up as of late too. Their top six can play and match any other top-6 in the game. Also, Pekka Rinne has a .931 save percentage since the start of March. He has gone through some struggles this year and last but perhaps he’s back to form and if that’s the case, it can only help is here. We’re not sold on Rinne but he’s not on the team spotting a better than 2-1 price tag.

Chicago ended up as a #1 seed while the Preds ended up as a Wild Card. The Blackhawks have pedigree and popularity while the Preds are just a playoff team every year that never can get over the hump. The same result from previous years is very possible but we’re suggesting that very little separate the two in terms of their chances to advance. Nashville is an absolute monster in their own rink and if they can find that same intensity on the road then the Preds will shock the hockey world. This series is a lot closer than the line suggests and therefore the price is too appealing to pass on.

Marc Lawrence

Toronto at Cleveland
Pick: Toronto

Edges - Raptors: 17-5 ATS with same season triple revenge against .600 or greater foes, including 9-1 ATS away… Cavaliers: 1-7 ATS in season finales with a win percentage of .600 or more. With the struggling Cavs just 4-7 ATS as home favorites in this series, and also owning a 2-5 ATS post-Heat rap sheet, we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.

Bruce Marshall

St Louis +147

Special night for Blues HC Mike Yeo, as he faces his former employer Minnesota in the first round of the playoffs. St. Louis looks like one of the form teams entering the Stanley Cup, winnign 9 of its last 11 on the road, and with a hot goalie in Jake Allen. Not sure what to make of the Wild, who cooled considerably in March, and whose late steadying was against a steady diet of Colorado, Carolina, and Arizona.

TONY KARPINSKI

Wolves vs. Rockets
Play: Rockets -8

Houston has already locked up the #3 seed for the NBA Playoffs and they have some guys who can at times, just "get after it" - 27 year old guard, James Harden has this tendency and has given them more than just a few good moments so far, he will pick it up here, with that extra push, I expect a big numbers game for him in a final run at MVP as OKC Westbrook says he is also playing tonight for his MVP run. He will more than match the slagging intensity of the TWolves.

Ricky Rubio is never afraid to dish the rock but he needs to make smarter plays, and he hasn't been doing this consistently. He is physically gifted and uses his great dribbling and quick eye to get to the rim and has the ability to also knock down some tough shots over the top of his defenders, problem has been his 40% shooting from the field and his elevated turnovers.

The TWolves lost a tough one at home last night and I look for Houston to get a double digit win in their regular season finale.