Zack Cimini
Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The 6-2 Reds take on the Pirates today at PNC Park. Ivan Nova will take the mound for the Pirates opposed the Reds young ace Amir Garrett. Last season after being traded from the Yankees Nova faced the Reds in a dazzling performance that has been his form since. Look for Nova to display similar confidence and for the Pirates to end their two-game home skid to the Reds.
SPORTS WAGERS
Series - St. Louis +160 over MINNESOTA
We are firmly convicted that the Blues have a better chance to win his series than the Wild. We cover this series in more detail in this week’s podcast at the 24:20 mark.
Minnesota shot of the gate like a rocket and by mid-January, they were considered by every “expert” to be a real contender but then the bottom fell out. Why? We’ve maintained for years that goaltending is the biggest factor in determining the outcome of games and here is proof of that one more time. Devan Dubnyk caught fire for a 1½-years and the Wild crushed it over that span. As soon as this career stiff lost it, the Wild have been getting crushed. Dubnyk is no rookie or young player that came up and thrived. He’s been around the NHL for a decade and has been traded, cut, released and sent down to the minors by more than one team. Well, guess what? Dubnyk is not in a slump. Instead, he’s simply gone back to being Devan Dubnyk and he’s a mess. Without great goaltending, the Wild are not good enough to beat St. Louis in a seven-game series.
Since firing Ken Hitchcock, no team in the NHL has been better than St. Louis. Since mid-February, St. Louis has the best goal-differential in the game. They have been the best 5-on-5 team during that same time frame in the entire league and that includes the Capitals. Mike Yao now gets to face the team that canned him when the Wild had no goaltending. Yao was canned because Minnesota was underachieving. They fired him and picked up Dubnyk afterward. As soon as they picked up Dubnyk, he vcaught fire and they stopped underachieving. He’s not hot anymore. In fact, Dubnyk is ice cold and his head is a compete mess too.
Jake Allen is in a zone. When the Blue Notes hired Yao, he brought along Martin Brodeur as the goalie coach and it’s no coincidence that since working with perhaps the greatest goalie of all time, Allen has been thriving. The Blues play a structured system that limits opponents scoring chances. They are tough as shoe-leather and they have star power with Vladamir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz. They have secondary scoring with guys like David Perron, Alex Steen, Jori Lehtera and Patrick Berglund among others. This is a defense and goaltending combo that has allowed the fewest goals in the NHL since Yao took over. If we’re sticking to our guns and looking for value in a series, the Blues must be played here. They have a HUGE edge in goal and they’re superior in most other areas as well.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston -109 over SEATTLE
Yovani Gallardo missed two months with a shoulder injury after a rough April last year, but things hardly improved upon his return. Gallardo posted career-worst command and xERA, while his first-pitch strike rate continues to speak to his strained relationship with the strike zone. The pitcher you remember from 2009-12 no longer exists and so it's time to move on or as we like to say, to continue to fade him. In his first start this year, Gallardo lasted five inning at Anaheim and surrendered eight hits and three runs. His first-pitch strike rate was 48%.
While we’re not crazy about Mike Fiers, sometimes you just have to ignore your starter when you are fading a pitcher and team. The Mariners are not off to a good start with two wins in nine games and they’ll now send their worst starter to the hill.
In case you might be interested, Mike Fiers has evolved into a junk-baller. After allowing 19 HR via a 90 mph four-seam fastball in 2015, he scaled back and threw his change/curve/cutter more. This helped cut down fly-balls, but his hr/f jumped instead and it came with a strikeout rate/swing and miss rate cost. The end result was a slight net loss but average pitchers on really good teams win baseball games and the Astronauts are really good and Fiers is a better option than Gallardo on his worst day.
San Diego -1½ +240 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 11 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park and so when Colorado is at home, this will be an automatic play every time
Two rookie pitchers will start this one and if you want the scouting report on them, you can find them both in our MLB call-ups section.
Incidentally, we received a good question regarding this strategy and thought we would share the question and answer here.
Q: Brian: Have you back-tested this Colorado alternate runtime angle over a large sample
A: Good question Manny and you'll have to be the judge yourself. I bet it all of last season as a tester and profited nearly 28 units (typo yesterday that said 48 units) on the year. Is that a small or large sample size? I would have to say small but large enough to put it out there this year and allow readers to make their own decision. Keep in mind that one win out of every three games shows a profit.
We’ll also keep an updated record on this play throughout the year.
2017:
1-1 +3.28 units
JOHN MARTIN
Raptors vs. Cavaliers
Play: Raptors -1.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are essentially giving the No. 1 seed to the Boston Celtics. They are expected to rest Lebron James tonight and Kyrie Irving could rest again as well. And the Cavs certainly have gotten wind of the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks are resting their starters against the Celtics tonight, which is why Boston is a whopping 14-point favorite. The Raptors are expected to play everyone except DeMar DeRozan. They want to keep the massive momentum they've built up by going 11-2 in their last 13 games, and they would love to be the team that prevents the Cavs from the No. 1 seed.
DAVE PRICE
Cardinals vs. Nationals
Play: Cardinals +184
The St. Louis Cardinals are off to a terrible 2-6 start this season. They'll want to get it turned around in a hurry, and I like the price we are getting with them here as nearly 2-to-1 dogs to the Washington Nationals. Mike Leake was brilliant in his opening start, giving up 1 earned run in 8 innings against the defending champion Cubs. Max Scherzer hasn't had much success against the Cardinals, going 1-3 with a 3.41 ERA in 6 lifetime starts. St. Louis is 14-2 after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
JACK JONES
Seattle Mariners +102
I'm going to take another shot with the Mariners today. They are undervalued due to their 2-7 start this season and are now listed as home underdogs to the Astros. They'll clearly be motivated to right the ship tonight.
Yovani Gallardo is a veteran who continues to pitch well despite being past his prime. Gallardo has fared very well against the Astros throughout his career, going 15-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 22 career starts against them.
Mike Fiers was fortunate to hold on to a spot in Houston's rotation. Fiers has posted a 4.95 ERA in four career starts against Seattle. The Astros are 2-6 in Fiers' last eight oad starts vs. a team with a losing record.
BLACK WIDOW
Raptors vs. Cavaliers
Play: Raptors -1
Bets against underdogs (Cleveland) off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 54-17 ATS since 1996. Lebron James is going to rest tonight, and more Cleveland players could be announced out by the time this game starts.
Brad Wilton
In a game that means absolutely nothing to the host Warriors, I look for the visiting Lakers to stay close enough tonight in Oakland to steal the cover plus the double-digits.
Golden State saw their 14-game winning streak end the other night at home against Utah, but the Warriors have clinched the #1 seed in the West, so there is no reason to risk any injuries tonight against a Los Angeles team that is looking to end the season on a high-note.
Luke Walton's team is finally playing their best basketball of the entire season, as LA has won 5 in a row straight up, and they have covered 6 in a row against the spread.
The Lakers have been blasted in the last 2 season meetings against the Warriors, but since this game means little to Golden State, I do not see another blasting coming down the pike.
Golden State will not lose this game outright, but I don't see them winning this one by a big number either.
Take the Lakers plus the points.
3* L.A. LAKERS
Bruce Marshall
Rangers / Canadiens Under 5
Since Henrik Lundqvist began to resmeble his old self in goal in the last week of the season, the Rangers have suddenly posted three "unders" in a row (one of those with Antti Raanta in goal). We know what Carey Price can do in goal for the Canadiens, and Montreal has suffered from a lack of firepower all season. These teams might get to five goals tonight, but likely not above.
SPORTS WAGERS
RBC Heritage Classic
There’s no rest for the wicked, as this week the PGA TOUR moves on from the magnificence of The Masters to the altogether more serene affair at the RBC Heritage from Harbour Town Links, based in Hilton Head, South Carolina.
If those involved at The Masters had just recovered from the ringing in their ears from the Augusta winds, then unfortunately they are in for a rude awakening again this week: the RBC is notorious for being one of the windiest events on the calendar, with the exposed, coastal nature of the course producing some terrific gales.
This event takes up an unfortunate place in the schedule immediately after The Masters, and the field that gathers on an annual basis generally reflects that. Recent winners of the RBC include Carl Pettersson, Boo Weekley, Brian Gay, and Aaron Baddeley, which gives its own insight into this tournament. The headline-makers will be defending champion Branden Grace as well as former RBC champs Brandt Snedeker and Matt Kuchar; fresh from his dramatic hole-in-one at Augusta on Sunday. Because of the softer field, it’s one of our favorite events to wager on.
One of the shortest on rotation at 7,099 yards, this Par 71 stretch is a Pete Dye/Jack Nicklaus design that places a premium on ball striking and distance control. Fairways are narrow and difficult to hit, while the small Bermuda greens – a lot slower and more forgiving than Augusta’s – still require sensible planning to ensure the perfect vantage-point from which to sink your putt. Perhaps the greatest factor is the wind, which whistles in off the coast and while there are plenty of trees lining the fairways, this track is rather exposed at times. Patience will be a virtue in South Carolina this week.
The emphasis here is on clever course management and plotting every shot wisely: length isn’t a factor, but placement is. None of the last eight champions here have finished top-20 for Driving Distance, while seven of the last eight have ranked top-20 for accuracy. That gives you a flavour of what to expect this week. With small greens, naturally Proximity to Hole and Scrambling also become key stats for the week. Indeed, in the last nine years, the player that topped the Scrambling stats here finished inside the top-10. Bogey Avoidance is routinely essential here as well, with winning scores ranging from -9 last year to -14 in 2012 (ignoring Furyk’s seemingly anomalous -18 in 2015).
Two final notes worth mentioning is that in the past 33 years of the RBC Heritage, only six winners hadn’t played in The Masters the week before. Perhaps even more noteworthy is that five of the last six champions are RBC ambassadors: Jim Furyk (x2), Snedeker, Kuchar, and Graeme McDowell.
The current list of RBC ambassadors reads: Furyk, Snedeker, Kuchar, McDowell, Graeme DeLaet, Ernie Els, Adam Hadwin, David Hearn, Ryan Palmer, and Nick Taylor. Great chance for a longshot this week and hopefully one or more of our choices will be in the mix come Sunday.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:
Graeme DeLaet 90-1
There’s that great stat regarding the RBC Heritage event and how well RBC ambassadors tend to fare here and with Graeme DeLaet recently added to the team we have to take interest. A talented player still seeking his maiden PGA TOUR win, DeLaet will be hoping that some of that RBC magic dust rubs off on him this week. The Canadian’s form at Harbour Town has been mixed down the years, but T14 here 12 months ago suggests he has finally gotten to grips with the course. His formline is ‘eclectic’ with missed cuts at Bay Hill and Puerto Rico following four consecutive top-25s, but having enjoyed a few weeks off he has been able to work on his game behind closed doors while many of his rival here have been trying to keep it together at Augusta. DeLaet ranks 15th on TOUR in Shots Gained (SG) Putting, 16th on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and 24th on Tour in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders (risking 0.2 units to win 18).
Head-to-head Matchup:
#7048 G. DeLaet -106 over A Lahiri (Risking 1.06 units to win 1).
Patrick Cantlay 60-1
It is testament to this young man’s character and ability that after the best part of three years away from professional golf battling a career-threatening back injury, he has been able to come back and perform so admirably. Cantlay was tied for the lead with Adam Hadwin heading down the back nine of the Valspar Championship, and while he had to make do with a share of second place, that was a nice insight into what this 25-year-old can do. He has made the cut in his other two starts this term (T48 at Pebble Beach, T39 at the Houston Open), hitting an average of 71% of greens in regulation and 62% of fairways. Cantlay holds the longest consecutive run at No. 1 in the World Amateur Golf Rankings. He held the spot from June 2011 to June 2012. He was No. 1 for 54 consecutive weeks and added another to make it 55 overall. Only Spaniard Jon Rahm has more with 55. His back injury and hiatus from the game for three years has him somewhat under the radar but this kid is ready to pop and this is a great field for him to get to the front of and stay there (risking 0.2 units to win 12).
Head-to-head Matchup: 72-hole betting
Cantlay -110 over DeChambeau (Risking 1.1 units to win 1).
Cameron Smith 125-1
If the RBC Heritage is a ‘B grade’ event, then we can expect a decent showing from Cameron Smith. His resume this term offers up T11 at Sanderson Farms, T10 at the Shriners, and T27 at the Sony Open, so windy, low quality fields are his speciality. His sole visit to Harbour Town in 2015 yielded a T15 – very handy indeed – and his game looks ideal for this test. He ran a putting clinic that week, gaining 10.57 strokes putting on the week to offset -4.13 strokes tee-to-green.
Smith is by no means the longest off the tee, but he is neat and precise off the peg and comes alive in, around, and on the green. Smith leans heavily on his stellar short game from week-to-week. In that sense, Harbour Town is a good fit since it restricts the bomb-and-gouge approach from his opponents arsenal. Smith is hungry and he ranks 8th on TOUR in SG: Around-the-Tee. Very nice overlay here (risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).
Head-to-head Matchup
There are no head-to-head match-ups available for Smith.
Pat Perez 40-1
Perez enjoyed a quiet but solid enough Masters – perhaps the best way to enjoy the event – and rounds of 74-74-70-71 ensured he finished T18. Unlike many in the field this week, his confidence will remain intact. Perez has already won in windy conditions this year at the OHL Classic, and the fact that he is a fairly recent winner on Tour stands him head and shoulders above most here in South Carolina this week. On the year, he has made 12 of 13 cuts, with a win at the OHL Classic, a third-place finish the following week at the Tournament of Champions. In all, he has four top 10s and eight top 25s. His only “missed cut” was a withdrawal at the Waste Management Open. Perez is second in greens in regulation and fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach-the Green in four events here. Perez also ranks 3rd in the field in Birdie or Better on the year, 19th in Bogey Avoidance, and 10th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. Is he an ideal fit for Harbour Town? Well you’d think so given his most recent finishes here are 26-18-18 (2013-2015) and T6 in 2011, and as an Arizonan, playing in the wind will not faze him one bit (risking 0.2 units to win 8).
Head-to-head Matchup: (1st round only 18 holes)
Perez is -143 over McDowell over at Pinnacle but we don’t lay -143 in any event so that’s a pass. However, he’s -105 against Jason Dufner in the first-18 holes (Round 1 only) over at BET365 so that’s the bet we’re going to make:
P. Perez -105 over J. Dufner (risking 1.05 units to win 1).
Vaughn Taylor 175-1
If this one doesn’t work out, so be it but we cannot let this opportunity or overlay pass us by. Taylor heads to South Carolina in good heart after a pair of T23 finishes at the Arnold Palmer and Houston Open, plus a statistical make-up that could bring Harbour Town to its knees. He ranks inside the Tour’s top 30 for Driving Accuracy, Proximity to the Hole, Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance. His course form is mixed but look back far enough and you find a T13 in 2012 and a fourth and third place finish in 2007 and 2006, so there is the merest hint of good form here. Taylor is ranked 20th on TOUR in Scrambling, 25th in Proximity-to-Hole and 27th in Driving Accuracy. Put it all together and he’s worth a wager at this price (risking 0.2 units to win 35 units).
Head-to-head Matchup:
There are no head-to-head match-ups available for Taylor.
Bob Balfe
Angels -135
Nothing really is going right for the Rangers to start the season. This team is not generating runs like they are known for and the bullpen is just garbage out of the gates. The Angels have been playing well, have the better bullpen and starting pitcher today.