DAVE COKIN
NEW YORK ISLANDERS vs. FLORIDA PANTHERS
PLAY: NEW YORK ISLANDERS +135 SERIES
It’s been what seems like forever since the Islanders won a playoff series. They’re in tough in the opening round of this spring’s Stanley Cup post-season action as the Isles challenge the Florida Panthers.
The joint will absolutely be jumping on Thursday as this series gets rolling Thursday evening, with the Panthers suddenly playing in front of big and rowdy crowds rather than the empty seats they’d had to endure in so many recent years. Florida has a hot veteran goalie in Roberto Luongo, who has seemed absolutely rejuvenated this season.
But I like the Islanders in this series. While the team has not won a post-season series in close to a quarter century, they will be the more experienced playoff entry here and I think that could be a big factor. I also have a tendency to like playing on the side with the dominant player who can take over a series and John Tavares is that guy.
But my play here is predicated on a bit of a gamble and that’s career backup goalie Thomas Greiss. He’s now the goalie in the center stage spotlight with Jaroslav Halak injured, and I’m convinced Greiss will be the deciding factor in this series. Greiss has only made one playoff appearance in one game over his entire NHL career, so it’s definitely the biggest moment of his career.
I completely understand that Greiss/Luongo logically favors the Florida netminder on paper. But I’ve literally lost count of how many times I’ve seen the unsung backup forced into action ending up in a starring role come playoff time. I grew up following this game and I’ve learned that what would seem to make common sense just doesn’t come close to always playing out that way once the NHL goes into Cup mode.
I think Greiss has the right mindset going in. He isn’t dwelling on his big moment and in fact seems really loose. When questioned yesterday in a media session, Greiss mentioned that this is a “fun time of year”, and it sounds to me like he is perfectly suited to be that underdog upset goalie out of the playoff gate.
Of course, this goes beyond just opinion as there should always be some number support. On my data, I’ve got this one as a tossup between two very closely match dreams. That’s where the price comes in, as I’m getting some nice dog odds with the Isles here and I like the value. I’ll go with the Islanders to the win in this first-round series.
Sleepyj
Philadelphia +11.5
It's been a tough year for both teams this year..The team that takes the floor tonight more upset is by far the Bulls...Once the Bulls fell out of the playoffs, the suitcases were packed...76ers have been out of the playoffs since the first game this year...Throughout the year the tough the 76ers played tough in some games...76ers struggle on the boards without Okafor in the lineup, but the 76ers have enough shooters to hang around...You have to wonder how many of the Bulls starters play here...If they do play, how many minutes will they get...Philly actually has a bench that plays often and they get a decent amount of minutes....Philly HC Brown will coach his guys to win here...I understand Hoiberg isn't the greatest coach, but his players haven;t responded to his norm form of coaching the Bulls had with Tibs....If one team could careless it's the Bulls to play for the coach, the fans and the team...This is almost a scrimmage game and laying 11.5 is a bit crazy IMO...I'll grab the points here with a team that comes to play.
Rob Vinciletti
Blackhawks vs. Blues
Play: Blues -119
The Blues are 3-1 with 3+ days rest and have won 7 of 10 at home vs Chicago. They won the season series this year 3-2 and are a solid 24-15 vs winning teams. Chicago is under 500 vs winning teams this year. The Blues have won 8 of 10 and are getting hot at the right time. We will look their way today.
Scott Spreitzer
Royals vs. Astros
Play:Royals -110
We have a pair of pitchers who were at opposite ends in their first start of the season. Yordano Ventura started his first 22 batters with a strike, while Scott Feldman threw just 44 strikes while tossing 79 pitches, overall. The Astro lefty was tagged for two home runs, eight base runners, and four earned runs in just four innings. Feldman was hamstrung by injuries last season, starting just 18 games, but saw his K/9 IP ratio drop to its lowest mark in five years. He did punch-out five batters in four innings in his season debut, but everything else was a mess. We doubt he lasts deep into this one before giving way to a Houston pen with a 6.11 ERA. Meanwhile, Yordano Ventura does his best work in evening starts, owns decent road numbers in his first few seasons in the league, and has pitched well against Houston. He's also backed by the better pen, sporting a top-10, 2.52 ERA. KC enters on a 21-7 run going back to last season and they're 6-0 in Ventura's last six starts against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Astros enter on a 1-7 slide when Feldman faces a team with a winning record.
Art Aronson
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Yankees +108
We think the visitors are worth a second look in this matchup. Brian McCann will be given the night off, he was 2 for 3 with his second homer in yesterday’s 3-2 win over the Blue Jays. But McCann is only 3 for 19 off of Blue Jays starter JA Happ. Happ has posted a pedestrian 4.85 ERA in nine starts against the Yanks overall though. Michael Pineda got his season opening win under his belt despite giving up six runs with three homers in five innings in his team’s 16-6 demolition of the Astros last Wednesday. Pineda was 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three games against Toronto last year, slugger Josh Donaldson was 0 for 10. Also note that Jose Bautista is just 3 for 19 in this matchup, while Kevin Pillar is only 1 for 10. The Yanks bullpen is on fire as well, leading the majors with a tiny 0.84 ERA. Consider a play on Pineda and the Yankees tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Play: Cleveland -104
Edges - Indians: the visiting team is 5-0 in Carrasco’s career team starts in this series, while Carrasco is 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA in this park. Rays: Drew Smyly 1-4 last five home team starts during April. With Tampa just 1-7 in its last 8 home game in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Jim Feist
Nuggets vs. Blazers
Play: Nuggets +9½
This is the finale for Denver, long out of the playoffs, but a team trying out several young players who are playing hard. The offense has been on a tear, scoring over 100 in 4 of the last 6, including a win at Memphis as a dog. Portland is a big favorite at home with plenty of play for, but a group short on defense. The defense is #20 in the NBA in points allowed(104.4 ppg), #16 in field goal shooting defense (.453%), and a dismal #26 in three-point defense (37%). Portland is on a 2-5 spread run at home and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. In addition the road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Matt Josephs
Indians vs. Rays
Play: Under 7
Carlos Carrasco looks to bounce back after a rough first start against Boston. The righty gave up four runs and seven hits in five innings of work in that one. Last year he pitched really well in Tampa Bay striking out 13 in a near complete game victory for the Tribe. That's even more surprising considering Carrasco's struggles away from home. Overall Carrasco is 2-3 with a 2.91 ERA and a WHIP of 1.059 in five career starts against the Rays. Evan Longoria (2-16, 5 K), Steven Souza Jr. (1-6, 4 K) and Kevin Kiermaier (0-7) all have had their issues with the starter. Tampa is having a rough time offensively hitting .228 before Tuesday's game. Drew Smyly also had a rough start although his came at home against Toronto. Smyly is facing a more friendly Cleveland team who despite this run of southpaws, is still struggling to hit. One look at the Tribe lineup and you'll see why as it's lacking talent without Michael Brantley. Jason Kipnis (1-13), Mike Napoli (2-14) and Carlos Santana (3-12) have had their issues with the former Tigers pitcher. I think that there's value with the under and two struggling offenses.
Bob Harvey
Jazz vs. Lakers
Play: Jazz -6
Kobe Bryant plays the final game of his illustrious 20-year career when the Los Angeles Lakers host the Utah Jazz. Game time is set for 10:30 PM ET at Staples Center. While the game will be ceremonial in nature for the Lakers, it could hold huge consequences for the Jazz. Utah will make the playoffs with a victory and a Houston loss in Sacramento.
The Jazz (40-41, 41-40 ATS) didn’t help their postseason chance with a 101-92 loss in Dallas on Monday. The Jazz are 3-0 against the Lakers this season with the average winning margin being 29 points, topped by a 123-75 drubbing on March 28. Rodney Hood scored 30 first-half points and made 8 of 9 treys in the recent 48-point rout that matched the worst loss in Lakers' history.
The Lakers (16-65, 35-46) will try and shed their six-game losing streak. They’ve lost nine of 10 en route to the worst record in franchise history and tonight will throw out the playbook. Bryant is expected to play 37 minutes and take as many shots as he likes.
Utah is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles and 5-1 vs. the number in its last six road games. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five meetings and 7-1-1 in the Jazz’ last nine road games.
The Jazz are 3-0 against the Lakers this season with the average winning margin being 29 points.
Will Rogers
Cincinnati vs. Chicago
Pick: Cincinnati
The Chicago Cubs came into the season with lofty expectations, and they haven't disappointed, winning six of seven so far. The Reds were expected to be one of the worst teams in the National League, but they look good so far winning five of seven. The two teams meet in Game 2 at Wrigley tonight, and my money is on Cincinnati as a big underdog.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Reds will send Alfredo Simon to the mound, and he looked pretty good in his season debut. He gave up just one earned run on five hits, striking out seven in five innings of a no decision. He's had no shortage of success against the Cubs, going 4-0 with a 1.41 ERA in five starts versus Chicago over the last three seasons. John Lackey will get the nod for the Cubs, looking to get back on track after getting hit hard in his season debut.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Jason Heyward has been swinging a hot bat for the Cubs, batting .316 with four RBIs over the last week. He has a history of struggling versus Simon though, going 1-for-8 with four strikeouts lifetime.
3. X-Factor - John Lackey was 1-2 with a 2.91 ERA in five starts versus the Reds last season.
Larry Ness
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Charlie Morton gave the Phillies 6.2 scoreless innings in their 3-0 Tuesday win over the Padres, lowering the team’s starting rotation’s ERA to 2.87. Jerad Eickhoff will try to keep the positive mojo of Philadelphia’s starting rotation going Wednesday night, as the Phillies and Padres meet in the third of a four-game series. Eickhoff broke the thumb on his pitching hand before camp opened and was limited to two spring training starts. He needed 50 pitches to make it through the first two innings of a 7-2 road loss to the New York Mets last Friday but finished with a respectable three runs allowed (two earned) in five-plus innings. All-in-all, an encouraging season debut, considering it was just his third start since breaking his thumb.
Eickhoff made eight starts last season (his first in the bigs), going 3-3 with an excellent 2.65 ERA (team was 4-4) but he has never has faced the Padres nor has he pitched to any of their active hitters. He’ll go up against San Diego’s Colin Rea, who made six starts in 2015, going 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA (team was). He opened 2016 with a relief stint and an April 8 start in which he allowed six hits, four walks and five ERs over just 3.1 innings against Colorado (Padres won 13-6). He needed 90 pitches to record just 10 outs and owns a .350 opponents' batting average on the young season. Rea suffered a 4-3 loss to Philadelphia last summer, allowing four runs over five innings.
I took Philly last night, a game in which the Padres were held scoreless for the FOURTH time in eight games to open the season (SD is 3-5). Note that 29 of San Diego’s 36 runs so far in 2016 have come in back-to-back wins in Colorado last weekend. Home team is the play again, here.
Teddy Davis
White Sox vs. Twins
Play: Twins +108
I look for the Twins to get their first win today with Phil Hughes taking the mound. Hughes pitched pretty well in his debut when facing the undefeated Orioles giving up 3 ER in six innings vs that tough lineup. The Twins are 7-1 in Hughes last 8 starts @ home and has a career ERA of 2.95 vs the White Sox.
Stephen Nover
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Play: Cleveland -105
I don't see the Rays beating Corey Kluber and Carolos Carrasco in back-to-back games. The Rays are below .500 even after defeating Indians ace Kluber last night. Tampa Bay just isn't that good of a team. They've trailed in 55 of 63 innings this season.
The Rays have had problems with AL Central Division teams losing 17 of the past 25 times. They also have dropped six of their last eight games to the Indians at Tropicana Field.
If Carrasco isn't an ace, he's close. I like him better than Drew Smyly, who has a 4.00 career ERA in three starts against Cleveland. Those outings all were with the Tigers, though. Carrasco nearly no-hit the Rays when he last faced them at Tropicana Field last July 1 coming within one strike of accomplishing the feat. Carrasco has a 2.91 lifetime ERA versus the Rays with a 34-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Cleveland has won eight of the last 10 times Carrasco has pitched on the road and also is 7-2 during Carrasco's last nine road starts against foes with a losing record.
Jack Jones
Seattle Mariners -143
The Seattle Mariners are going to be highly motivated for a victory today when they take on the Texas Rangers. They have now lost five in a row and are desperate to get in the win column to end this skid.
Taijuan Walker is a great guy to have to end this streak. He gave up two earned runs over 6 innings against Oakland in his first start this season. He's quickly becoming one of the best young starters in the game.
A.J. Griffin is 0-2 with a 6.67 ERA in his last two starts against Seattle, giving up 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 19 base runners in 12 innings of work.
The Rangers are 7-21 in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Mariners are 13-6 in their last 19 during game 3 of a series. Seattle is 14-5 in Walker's last 19 starts overall.
Jimmy Boyd
Cleveland Indians -109
I cashed in on the Rays +121 in yesterday's 5-1 win over the Indians, but now the value lies with Cleveland at basically a pick'em in game 2 of the series. The Indians will send out Carlos Carrasco, who I'm confident will be much better than his first start, which he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings of work. Carrasco simply had a bad day at the office and as a result isn't getting the respect he deserves in this one.
Tampa Bay's Drew Smyly was even worse in his first start, allowing 5 runs on 6 hits in 6 2/3 innings of a loss at home to the Blue Jays. Smyly hasn't exactly fared well against the Indians, as he has a 4.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 3 career starts against them. Carrasco on the other hand has pitched extremely well against the Rays. He's got a 2.91 ERA and 1.059 WHIP over 5 starts. In his most recent start at Tampa, he allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings of work.
Even with yesterday's loss, Cleveland is 6-2 in their last 8 against the Rays in Tampa Bay. The Indians are also 11-3 in their last 14 road games after scoring 3 runs or less in 2 straight games and 9-1 in Carrasco's last 10 road starts with a money line of +125 to -125.