Brandon Lee
Dodgers -149
Los Angeles has dropped 4 of 5 after yesterday's 2-4 loss in the series opener against the Diamondbacks and I look for them to come out inspired to make sure they get a win tonight. The Dodgers will give the ball to Alex Wood, who got crushed in his first start at San Francisco, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings of work. I look for Wood to bounce back in a big way at home, where he hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in 5 home starts with the Dodgers. On the flip side of this, Arizona gives the ball to Ruby De La Rosa, who allowed 7 runs in just 3 1/3 innings of his first start of 2016 and has a 11.21 ERA and 1.868 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Dodgers.
Alex Smart
Lakers +6
For 20 years Kobe, Kobe Bryant starred for the Los Angeles Lakers and after Wednesday night against the Utah Jazz, this super star will cease to light up the court in the City of Angels. Meanwhile, Utah can make the post season and grab the Western Conference's last remaining playoff spot if it wins this game and Houston loses earlier in the night to Sacramento. Thats a huge question mark. So from a motivational view point there are two subtitles in play. In pure Hollywood fashion Ill explain them out in media headline bullet points . Kobe RETIRES with a BANG as Lakers beat depressed Jazz or Jazz MOTIVATED by must need win clobber KOBEs LAKERS on the way out the door. I'm doubling down here and betting the first headline , which fort-ell's of a situation where Rockets beat the depleted Kings at home in a must win situation and than the Jazz fold after having their play off hopes crushed . Which means that Utah will come out here in a letdown state , which gives credence to them having a down performance, which in turn will help us cover the number . When betting this game, patience is of the utmost importance, because if Houston does what I expect they will , run and take the points as quick as possible (keep a close eye on line movement as the books and sharp bettors are very aware of the angles at play.)
Alex Smart
Philadelphia at Chicago
Play: Philadelphia +11
The Chicago Bulls host the Philadelphia 76ers with little left to play for, after a ugly season, that will see them miss the play offs. With Rose ,and Gasol not expected in the lineup tonight and Butler less than 100% with a nagging knee injury Im betting the Sixers give the home team a surprise tonight and more importantly get us a cover. CHICAGO is 2-13 ATS off a road win this season. CHICAGO is 8-21 ATS after a non-conference game this season. PHILADELPHIA is 17-7 ATS versus lower tier defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game this season with the average margin of victory/defeat coming by 3.1 ppg.
Dave Price
Indians/Rays Under 7
Two of the most underrated starters in baseball square off tonight when the Cleveland Indians visit the Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday. Carlos Carrasco went 14-12 with a 3.63 ERA in 30 starts last season for the Indians. Drew Smyly is 24-16 with a 3.29 ERA in his 5 years in the big leagues. Carrasco sports a 2.91 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay, while Smyly sports a 4.00 ERA in 3 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland.
OSKEIM SPORTS
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees +114
Don't be fooled by New York right-hander Michael Pineda's 4.37 ERA last season as the 27-year-old actually had a very good campaign. Specifically, Pineda posted a 3.34 FIP, 2.95 xFIP and 3.72 SIERA over 27 starts (160.2 innings) with an 8.74 K/9 and 1.18 BB/9 rate. What makes those results even more impressive is the fact that Pineda was plagued by an unsustainable (and unlikely) .332 BABIP, which is likely to level out to the league average in 2016.
Pineda also owns a career 3.60 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in eight starts against the Blue Jays, including going 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three outings last season. American League MVP Josh Donaldson is 0-for-10 against Pineda, while Jose Bautista is just 3-for-19 and Kevin Pillar is 1-for-10 against the talented hurler. Pineda is also supported by a New York bullpen that boasts a league-leading 0.84 ERA and 0.93 WHIP (21.3 IP; 32/5 K/BB), including a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP on the road (10 IP; 14/2 K/BB).
Pineda now faces a scuffling Toronto lineup that is batting .206 with a .296 on base percentage at home (4.0 runs per game), .213 with a .295 on base percentage versus right-handed starters (3.8 runs per game) and .211 with a .287 on base percentage in its last seven contests (3.7 runs per game). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays trot out veteran southpaw J.A. Happ, who owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in nine career starts against New York. Toronto's bullpen has also struggled in the opening month of the 2016 season, posting a 4.35 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 20 2/3-innings of work.
The main culprit has been Brett Cecil, who has blown two saves and has a 10.13 ERA over four games. ''He's off right now,'' manager John Gibbons said. ''There's no secret about that.'' From a technical standpoint, New York is a profitable 11-5 in Pineda's last sixteen starts versus American League East foes and 5-2 in his last seven starts against teams with a losing record, whereas the Blue Jays are a money-burning 3-9 in Happ's last twelve starts, including 1-6 following a loss and 1-4 versus division opponents.
There is no doubt that Happ is coming off the best season of his career, but the peripherals show an entirely different story that reject any suggestion of a late-career resurgence for the left-hander. Happ's 0.84 HR/9 rate in 2015 was his second-best in the Majors, which speaks volumes about the aging hurler. At plus-money, I like the Yankees behind the better pitcher and bullpen - invest with confidence.
Power Sports
Diamondbacks at Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
The Dodgers dropped Tuesday's series opener to Arizona here at Chavez Ravine, but I would expect them to bounce back in a major way tonight. They'll be going up against the beleaguered Rubby De La Rosa, who after a terrible 2016 debut now has a 7.66 ERA his L6 starts. Off a loss, LA is 88-55 since the start of 2014.
Starting here for Dodger Blue will be Alex Wood, who admittedly had his own rough start to the season. Wood allowed five runs in a 12-6 loss to San Francisco last Thursday, but it should be pointed out that he looked sharp initially. In fact, he threw four scoreless frames of three-hit ball prior to the wheels falling off in the fifth. The southpaw had no such problems w/ Arizona the last time he faced them as he went 6 1/3 innings and allowed only two runs on three hits. I'll call for a quality start from Wood here.
Much is being expected from the D'backs this year after a busy offseason. The early returns have not been great as they've yet to win B2B games. De La Rosa was a disaster against the Cubs last Thursday as he gave up six runs in 3 1/3 IP. It was even worse against the Dodgers when he faced them last September as it took him only two frames to give up six runs. Look for his struggles to continue here against a lineup that is averaging 6.5 runs against righties so far this year.
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Nationals to take it on the Run Line against the Braves.
Well, it was a sweat for the Nats last night, but they did keep the Braves winless in their 2-1 victory, and while they didn't win by the required pair of runs last night, tonight will be a different story.
Washington has now won a dozen straight games at home over Atlanta, and they have laid claims to win in 18 of the past 22 overall meetings versus their sliding division-rivals.
One of those wins came last week when Stephen Strasburg worked 6 innings of 1 run ball for the win over the Braves who he has now worked 24 frames of 1 run ball for a 4-0 mark!
Winlees Atlanta will go with Matt Wisler who went 2-2 against Washington last season, but was hit hard in both road starts, allowing 11 runs on 14 hits in just under 6 innings for an 0-2 mark.
I know the Braves will eventually get a win this season, but tonight is not the night.
Washington to take it by at least a pair of runs.
5* WASHINGTON -1.5
Wunderdog
Kansas City @ Houston
Pick: Kansas City +104
The defending champs got a win here last night for their fourth win in five contests. The Royals are 36-17 against the AL West. Yordano Ventura (3.60 ERA) takes the mound with excellent stuff and the Royals are 36-17 in his last 53 starts. Kansas City has it all, speed on the bases, defense in the field and great bullpen arms. I can't trust Houston's 33-year-old starter Scott Feldman (9.00 ERA), coming off an injury-plagued campaign and then throwing badly in his first start. Feldman (0-1) surrendered five hits, four earned runs and three walks over four innings in Friday's 6-4 loss to the Brewers. Last season he had a losing home record with a 5.40 ERA with opponents hitting .316 off him in this park. The Astros are 19-39 against a team with a winning percentage above .600, so grab the champs in the role of dog -- again.
Drew Martin
San Francisco at Colorado
Play: Over 11.5
The San Francisco Giants (6-2) have jumped out to an early lead in the National League West thanks to a red hot .860 team OPS. They’ll be be facing another offensive minded team in the Colorado Rockies tonight who possess the second highest team OPS in the National League. Tonight’s starting pitchers suggests the offensive production should continue. Jake Peavy has long been past his prime and looked shaky in his first start with 10 hits and 4 earned runs allowed. He also has not fared well in this venue with an opponent's’ team OPS of .860 and dismal 1.61 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 appearances. A few reports coming out of spring had Jordan Lyles pegged as a sleeper heading into the campaign but he got knocked around a bit in his first outing (3.1 IP, 5 ERs). And despite his ground ball tendencies, he’s yet to figure out Coors Field with a 5.16 lifetime ERA in nearly 100 innings of work. The potential is there for multiple big innings as we look to play the over.
SPORTS WAGERS
Series Bets
Nashville +175
It’s no secret that we’ve faded the Predators many, many times this year but that fade was against Pekka Rinne and not the team as a whole. In fact, we’re on record as saying that Nashville, aside from goaltending, might be the best man-for-man team in the NHL and we absolutely stick by that statement. The Predators are a small market team that few people outside of that area watch closely. Only die hard NHL bettors (or fans in that area) actually realize how good the Preds truly are. The rest of the market has no clue. They identify the Preds as a team with a great goaltender and good players that rarely make noise in the postseason but that’s not close to who the Preds are. They are actually the complete opposite of that, that being, a collection of great players with weak goaltending. We can almost assure you that the Preds will not get outplayed in this series because they are a team that rarely gets outplayed. Nashville is a puck possession juggernaut that allows few shots on net. They likely have the best set of defensemen in the NHL and it might not be close. The Preds lost more games than they should have this season only because Pekka Rinne had his worst season ever but a team this good should not be offered this big a price against any team in the West.
The top five teams in the West, Dallas, Chicago, St. Louis, Los Angeles and San Jose are all in the neighborhood of 4½ to 5½-1 to win the Cup. That Nashville is 22-1 (or thereabouts) is so out of whack because Nashville is as good as any of those others. Again, the market knows very little about Nashville and that provides us with a great opportunity to buy them at a low price. If Pekka Rinne can somehow find the form that made him one of the league’s great for years, the Preds will be one of, if not the most difficult team to dispose of in these playoffs. The Preds have great depth up front with several strong point producers. Their defensive talent is unmatched. They allow few shots on net and they almost always dominate puck possession. Again, this market is completely unaware of the Predators strength. They have at least a 50% chance of beating Anaheim.
Anaheim had one outstanding run that lasted 2½ months this year. However, the Ducks were struggling at the start of the year and they were struggling at the end of the year. This is a Ducks’ team that went 9-9 in the final 18 games of the year. Down the stretch, the Ducks lost to Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg, Vancouver and Colorado among others. The Ducks also needed OT to get by Ottawa in a game they trailed 3-0 going to the third. This is basically the same team that trailed Winnipeg in every game of last year’s playoffs before rallying late in every game to win it. The Jets could not hold onto the lead but the same fate does not await the Predators. They are more than capable of extending leads and holding onto them too. Anaheim’s strength of schedule this season ranked DEAD last in the NHL while the Predators strength of schedule ranked 7th best.
It is quite possible that Pekka Rinne falters and the Ducks win this series but most people are basing their selection here on the Ducks being the superior team by a significant margin. That is so not true. Come Friday and beyond, people are going to wake up to these Predators and claim they had no idea how good this team is. We’re telling you how good they are before you get sucked into playing the inferior team here and laying a big price to go along with it. There is only one way to bet this series and that’s to play the most undervalued underdog in this year’s playoffs. We are not guaranteeing a Predators victory in this series because goaltending can decide it but we can almost guarantee you that the Predators will outplay, outshoot and out-chance the Ducks in almost every game.
San Jose +135
Who could possibly want to wager on Sharks in this series? San Jose has been on the wrong end of its rivalry with the Kings forever so it's no surprise most pundits and fans are ready to write off 'No Show' Joe Thornton and his mates again. The negative perception of the Sharks in the market place has them flying under the radar, presenting us with an opportunity. While the Sharks’ core group is known mostly for flaming out in the playoffs, this year the Sharks made two major upgrades. The first was behind the bench where they replaced meathead Todd McLellan with a real professional coach in Peter DeBoer. You may remember DeBoer was the coach of the Devils when New Jersey played the Kings in the finals in 2012. The second brings another compelling storyline to this series and that's between the pipes with Martin Jones. Jones spent the first two years of his career as the understudy to Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick. DeBoer says Jones is a calming influence on his teammates, certainly a fine quality in a starting goalie. The Sharks did a little tinkering at the trade deadline and added some insurance by bringing James Reimer in from Toronto to backup Jones. Reimer played well down the stretch posting three shutouts in his final eight starts for the Sharks.
The Kings don't need much of an introduction. They've held the cup high over their heads two of the last four seasons. Their run in 2014 almost ended early after L.A. went down 3-0 to San Jose. We all know what happened next, as the Kings made history and beat the Sharks in seven on their way to another Stanley Cup. The Kings deserve all the positive postseason praise they receive. They've proven to be a tough out and they have very few weaknesses. They are a serious threat to win it all but something about this line does not smell right to us.
The Kings indeed look tempting in this spot at this price. The playoffs are the Sharks Kryptonite and they're the laughing stock of every playoff pool. If you took a few Sharkies in your draft, you know what we're talking about. If you didn't it's probably because you've been burned before. This looks like a short price on a team as playoff dominant as the Kings and we have no doubt bettors will be lining up to take another shot at the underachievers from the Bay Area. L.A. is high on everyone's radar and this series price will not do anything to change that. While most folks will be headed to the window to back the Kings, we'll be taking a different approach. This line is very telling and suggests to us that the oddsmakers give the Sharks a great chance to win this series. These are not your daddy's Sharks. San Jose had the league’s best road record and DeBoer's system is conducive to winning a playoff series. We saw that when he took the rag tag Devils to the finals but he has so much more talent to work with here. Don't sleep on these Sharks, as the line suggests they will be in this one and we couldn’t agree more. We’re calling the upset here.
Detroit +136
Make no mistake that we are not big supporters of the Red Wings. Detroit has goaltending issues and they constantly allow glorious scoring opportunities. The Red Wings have also been wildly inconsistent all season, looking outstanding one night and the complete opposite the next. Such was the case when they defeated Philadelphia in the final week of the season and played a near flawless game only to get massacred the very next day in Boston. However, Detroit has some wickedly talented forwards and some of the speediest players in the game. That is likely to cause the Lightning major problems.
We also have to question the timing of Pavel Datsyuk’s announcement that he’s leaving the Red Wings after this year to return to Russia to play out his career. Datsyuk has been around for a very long time and he’s a smart guy. Surely, he gave some thought to the timing of that announcement. We’re suggesting that Datsyuk’s timing was well calculated. He did it to motivate his teammates and to add some real emotion to the city and the fans of Detroit. The Joe will be rocking. The Red Wings had the Bolts on the ropes in last year’s playoffs. Detroit went up 3-1 in the series but Tampa fought back with a team that was so much better last year than this year. This season, the Red Wings will finish them off.
The Lightning have had a rough season. After making it all the way to the Stanley Cup finals last season, they returned the vast majority of their roster and looked primed to dominate the Eastern Conference en route to another finals appearance. The injury bug had different plans. Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat struggled with injuries early on and not a single player on the roster ended up playing all 82 games. Now, as we head into the playoffs, the Lightning will be without Steven Stamkos, Anton Stralman and possibly Johnson but it’s more than that. Despite earning wins, the Lightning could never get into a rhythm all year. On most nights, they were coughing the puck up constantly in their own end. The loss of Stralman is likely to hurt the Bolts more than the loss of Stamkos. Stralman’s absence leaves the Bolts without a right-handed shot on defense. That may not seem like much but it is. The Bolts are deep up front but that’s not the issue. Outside of Victor Hedman, the other d-men are a big liability (Jason Garrison, Matt Carle, Braydon Coburn, Andrej Sustr Nikita Nesterov). Ben Bishop is regarded as one of the best in the business but that’s something we’re not buying into either. Bishop allows fat rebounds and the weak defense in front of him cannot clean up all that junk left out in front.
Even when the Bolts were healthy this year, they were unimpressive on most nights. Perhaps Tampa will get a burst of energy from Jonathan Drouin but it’s not likely to matter. The Red Wings speedy and talented forwards are going to do some heavy damage in this series and we’re suggesting that the Bolts won’t be able to withstand it this time around.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego -101 over PHILADELPHIA
Jerad Eickhoff wasn’t among the top 15 prospects in the Rangers organization heading into 2015, but he finished the season with a strong eight-start run with the Phillies (2.65 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 51 IP). So, when a guy emerges out of practically nowhere, it’s worth having a closer look to see if there is opportunity to fade him and there is because things weren’t quite as rosy as they seemed. Eickhoff exhibited superb control, which was fully supported by his strong first-pitch strike rate. His ability to miss bats was also evident, as seen with his plus swing and miss rate. However, Eickhoff’s fly-ball rate is not a good match for his home stadium (+10% LHB HR; +40% RHB HR). Eickhoff's dominance vs. RHB was impressive (.458 OPS, 30% K% and 4% BB% in 112 AB), but LHB feasted on him. Eickhoff featured a devastating slider (26% swing and miss %) and plus curve (17% swing and miss %), but needs to come up with an answer for left-handed batters. The Padres will send up at least four and maybe five left-handed bats. More than that, however, is that the Phillies projected win total was 64½ so when this team is favored, they are almost always instafade material.
Colin Rea is another rather unknown that is on our radar. Rea has some fine qualities which include pitchability, location, and deception with a groundball tilt. What he lacks in premium velocity, he makes up for by throwing strikes with four average pitches. There’s a fastball that works in the low 90s, a cutter that sniffs 90 mph, a curveball with tight spin, and what has been the difference maker over the last season for Rea, his newfound splitter. With it, he’s been better able to neutralize lefties, something that bogged him down in the lower levels. At 6’5”, 225 pounds, Rea gets a steep angle to the plate, allowing all his pitches to stay low in the zone. He struggled a bit in Triple-A over a small sample size with his control, which followed him to the majors last year. Without premium heat, the margins are smaller for Rea, for when things aren’t working, he’s proven to be much too hittable. That certainly was the case this spring, as he was knocked around over 22 innings with a 5.73 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 25 hits, and a 13/17 BB/K. He was also knocked around in his first start of the year but that was in Colorado. Now Rea’s stock is very low but he has the ability to thrive here. This kid is smart and he's getting better every day. Watch closely.
BOSTON -1½ +174 over Baltimore
The Orioles are undefeated and while we don’t like to get in the way of a hot streak, this is one of those near perfect setups for the Birds to finally taste defeat. Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off a seven inning, one-run gem against the Twins but Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the most blowup prone pitchers in the game. After a gem like that, a disaster is usually waiting for this stiff. The “good” version of Ubaldo (sub-4.00 xERA) is a fringe-average starter who now, sans 96 mph fastball, needs strand % luck to help him get his ERA to useful levels. That both his swing and miss and first-pitch strike rates are slightly below league average leaves little hope for command growth. Ubaldo’s groundball rate last year was at his highest level since 2010, but regression is pulling in the wrong direction. Look, 2010 isn’t coming back for Jimenez and we might not even see 2013 levels again. If he doesn’t lose additional velocity and is able to maintain an upper 40’s groundball rate, Jimenez may get in a handful of useful starts but for the most part, you are going to see several disasters from him because he’s basically batting practice out there. We’ll attempt to take that to the bank here.
Meanwhile, Joe Kelly has very little market appeal after he was blown up in Toronto in his first start. Kelly barely made it through three innings after allowing seven hits and seven runs. He’ll now bring that 21.00 ERA (after one start) into this home start against Ubaldo Jimenez’s 1.29 ERA after one start and we’re pretty sure we know where the market will be leaning here. Don’t be fooled. Kelly is a true flamethrower (95.8-mph fastball) but he’s still trying to turn his stuff into skills and results.Kelly keeps showing signs of harnessing his stuff into something good and it could happen at any time. The key for him will be to pound the strike zone at a higher rate. While he is throwing first-pitch strikes at a decent rate, his high 39% ball% in the second half tells us that his control remains on solid footing. With his high-octane velocity and more movement on his pitches, even a modest growth would mean some decent value on him. By no means do we trust Kelly just yet but for this one game, we will trust the Red Sox offense to expose Jimenez’s weak profile. The Red Sox are likely to win this game by four runs or more or lose it by four runs or more so we're willing to gamble on the former.
Jeff Alexander
Bulls/76ers Over 208
I believe the books have made a big mistake here with this total, as I don't see either of these teams bringing the defensive intensity in this one. The 76ers don't play defense as it is, as they have allowed 109 or more points in 4 of their last 5, including 122 last time out at Toronto. They only game they haven't allowed 100 points in their last 10 games was against the injury deplete Hornets. Chicago has scored 105 and 121 in their last two and have scored at least 111 in their last 4 against the 76ers. The key here is the Bulls aren't going to be interested in playing defense as they conclude a greatly disappointing season. The OVER is 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 against a team with a losing record and 6-0 in the 76ers last 6 against at team with a winning record.
Aaron Toller
Grizzlies vs. Warriors
Pick: Under 213
Teams played a few nights ago and mustard 199 total points with Golden State going for the NBA record wins in a single season defense will be something they focus on for sure tonight. Memphis was blown out last night but expect them not to rollover for the Warriors tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
Jazz vs. Lakers
Play: Jazz -5
This line has been marching downward ever since it was released. The odds makers set the line at 8 and markets have pushed it all the way down to a 5 at the time of this write-up being completed. The odds makers don't often make 'big mistakes" and I certainly don't think they made one here. They knew that by the time this one tipped off there would be a strong chance that the Jazz were eliminated from the post-season. They also knew that tonight would be all about Kobe Bryant playing his last game for the Lakers. So why then does everyone think the odds makers "missed" with this game? I am not sure but what I do know is that the Jazz are not going to lay down in this game. I also know that Utah is a very solid defensive team and that means this is not the ideal match-up for Bryant to be closing out his career. I doubt he's going to get a lot of open looks but yes he'll be encouraged to shoot early, often, and throughout this contest. That suits me just fine with backing the Jazz as Kobe has hit just 35.4% of his shots this season and only 28.5% of his three pointers. The more he shoots the more likely it is that the Jazz win big. Bryant will indeed have a big send-off tonight and certainly he's going to give his best effort for this game. However, prior to the loss to Dallas, the Jazz had allowed 88 points or less in 8 of their last 11 games. By contrast, the Lakers have allowed 110 points per game in their last 11 games and they've lost 10 of those games. I know the Jazz are disappointed about their performance against Dallas and, playoffs or no playoffs, these guys are professionals and they'll be ready to go tonight. The Jazz are 10-1 ATS this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite and have gone 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a losing record. The Lakers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
Zack Cimini
Atlanta vs. Washington
Pick: Atlanta
Today's free play comes in the NBA's end of season conclusion between the Hawks and Wizards. Washington will be without Bradley Beal and John Wall who has missed the Wizards last four games.
Recently, the Hawks and Wizards met in home/away scenarios on March 21st and 23rd. Both were blowout affairs with the Wizards winning in Atlanta and Atlanta returning the favor in Washington.
Tonight, I see the advantage on the Hawks side as they have playoff seeding to play for.
In their March 23rd victory over the Wizards the Hawks shot 42 of their 84 shots from three point range. In fact, nine players scored eight points or more in the win.
Washington's recent blowout win as a five point underdog at home to Charlotte has created value on the Hawks side today. Grab the Hawks to retain home court advantage in the first round and not slip with a loss today.