MIKE LUNDIN
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 8½
The Toronto Blue Jays are an MLB-worst 2-11 on the season, but at least their bats came alive in yesterday's 8-7 loss in the opener of this three-game series against the Boston Red Sox. I think we'll see plenty of runs again tonight with Rick Porcello and Francisco Liriano on the mound.
Porcello (1-1, 7.56 ERA) has posted a 6.23 ERA in nine career games (eight starts) at Toronto. He was torched for eight runs on eight hits while serving up four homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-5 loss against Tampa Bay his last time out. Liriano (0-1, 9.00) has posted a 5.97 ERA in six career starts vs. Boston and is likely to get roughed up again by a Red Sox side that has scored 19 runs through its last three games alone.
We can also note that the over is 6-0 in umpire Doug Eddings' last six games behind home plate overall, 6-2 in his last eight games vs. Toronto and 18-7-1 last 26 vs. Boston.
JOHN MARTIN
Atlanta vs. Washington
Play: Washington -5
John Wall suffered a wrist injury in the playoffs two years back that really changed the series against the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks went on to win that playoff series, and Wall and company want to exact some revenge here. They have been in revenge mode all regular season against the Hawks, winning four straight meetings by a combined 40 points, or by an average of 10 points per game. They were clearly the more physical team in Game 1 and will bring that same intensity in Game 2. The Wizards have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA, going 31-11 at home this season. Atlanta is 17-38 ATS in its last 55 playoff road games.
BRANDON LEE
Phillies vs. Mets
Play: Mets -128
New York is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Phillies. The Mets have lost 4 straight, each defeat coming with the other team winning the game in their final at bat. Philadelphia won yesterday's game 6-2 by scoring 4-runs in the top of the 10th. That was a rare win for the Phillies in this series, as the Mets are 29-13 in their last 42 against Philly. I'll take my chances here with the Mets behind today's starter Robert Gsellman, who has a couple of ugly starts against the Marlins on his resume this season. However, Gsellman owns a 2.37 ERA in 3 starts against these Phillies. It's also worth noting that Philadelphia starter Vincent Velasquez has had a rough go of things in 2017, allowing 9 runs on 10 hits and 7 walks and both of those starts were at home.
RAY MONOHAN
Wild / Blues Under 5
The St. Louis Blues have a chance to sweep the Series against the Minnesota Wild on Wednesday night and a big reason for that is Jake Allen. This series Allen has made 117 saves in three games while only allowing one goal.
I expect much of the same from him on Wednesday night. The Blues also like to play a very conservative style of play after they score their first goal, which helps keep their scoring numbers low. Some trends to note. Under is 4-0 in Wild last 4 overall. Under is 15-3-3 in Blues last 21 vs. Western Conference. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
MIKE MENASE
Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Play: Padres +111
The Diamondbacks look temptingly easy. They just, after all, destroyed the Padres 11-2 in San Diego. But their performance was exceptional and I expect a major letdown from their bats.
Consider that the Diamondbacks had mustered merely 19 runs in their previous 7 road games before last night. This team tends to struggle to hit on the road. Last season, their ops was .710 on the road compared to .794 at home. This season, even despite their effort last night, their ops is still only .625 compared to .873 at home.
With the Padres' bats, we have the complete opposite. Last season, on the road, their ops was merely .677 compared to .701 at home. This season, they haven't played too much at home yet. But despite their no-show last night, their ops is still .685 at home compared to .640 on the road.
The Padres batters are at their best at home while the Diamondbacks usually hit worst on the road. I think we see a return to this norm today.
I also like the way in which the Padres' bats match up with Greinke. Greinke is a finesse pitcher whose fastball and change tend to induce ground balls while his slider and curve tend to induce fast balls. Against finesse pitchers the Padres are at their best, managing a .733 ops thus far. Against pitchers who induce both fly and ground balls, the Padres are likewise at their best with a .686 ops. The Padres are in a good spot and enjoy a favorable match-up to bounce back today. Greinke has struggled thus far in the season with a 4.32 ERA--in continuity with his struggles in the second half of last season, during which his ERA was over 6. I don't expect him to turn things around tonight.
Chacin's ERA on the season, granted, doesn't look too encouraging. He is 0-2 with an ERA of over 14 in road starts thus far. But he is a decisively better pitcher at home. Last season, for instance, his ERA was 5.85 on the road compared to 3.52 at home. This season, he is already 1-0 at home, having pitched 6.2 innings of shutout baseball.
Chacin is in a great spot to do well tonight. I also like how he matches up against Arizona batters. Chacin enjoys an arsenal of pitches that allows him to induce both fly and ground balls. Against such balanced pitchers the Diamondbacks have managed mere .734 ops, which is consistent with their numbers from last season. The Diamondbacks haven't faced too many finesse pitchers, as Chacin would likely be considered as one, but they continue to struggle against the kind of versatility that Chacin can offer.
Greinke is still being overrated because of his near-Cy Young performance back in 2015. Also, some factors related to location are not being accounted for by the odds. I expect a strong performance out of Chacin today. I expect Chacin and San Diego bats to be the decisive factors today, as both Arizona and San Diego have bullpens which struggle. We have a smart value play here with the chance of a nice underdog payout. I think the Padres bounce back at home.
STEPHEN NOVER
Giants vs. Royals
Play: Under 8
If the oddsmaker tricked me by making this total 8 instead of 7 1/2 than I congratulate him because he got my money. Because I certainly can't see more than seven runs being scored here even though there will be about a 10-15 mph wind blowing out to left. The Royals achieved the near impossible on Tuesday: They made washed-up Matt Cain look good. The Giants won that game with Cain, 2-1, in 11 innings. Now the Royals draw Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner could be the second-best lefty in baseball behind only Clayton Kershaw depending on how you feel about Chris Sale. Bumgarner has 24 strikeouts in 21 innings this season. Opponents are batting .222 against him. Kansas City is last in the majors in runs scored and third-from-the-bottom in batting average. The Royals haven't scored more than three runs in six of their last seven games. The Giants have managed just five runs in their last three games. They've been held to three runs or less in five of their past seven games. Royals starter Jason Vargas hadn't been healthy in two years. Now he's finally 100 percent again and has looked sharp in two starts giving up just one run in 13 2/3 innings with 14 strikeouts. He's backed by one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Perhaps it's somewhat of a coincidence, but the under has cashed in Vargas' last nine starts. The under has also cashed in eight of the last nine games John Tumpane has been behind the plate. He's slated to be the home plate umpire today.
JIMMY BOYD
Rangers vs. Athletics
Play: Rangers +100
I really like the value here with Texas at basically a pick'em against the A's. The Rangers fell 2-4 to Oakland yesterday, which puts them in a very profitable spot, as they have gone 25-10 in their last 35 games after scoring 2 runs or less. At the same time the A's are a mere 1-7 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less.
Texas will send out Martin Perez, who has a 2.20 ERA in 3 starts, which is impressive given his struggles with command early. I like his chances of throwing well here against the A's offense. Note that Perez has pitched well against Oakland of late, allowing just 4 earned runs in his last 18 1/3 innings against them. Texas is 15-5 in Perez's last 20 starts with a money line of +125 to -125 and 6-1 in his last 7 starts against a division opponent. Oakland on the other hand is a mere 34-71 in their last 105 games against a left-handed starter and just 4-13 in their last 17 home games.
JACK JONES
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Blazers +14
The Portland Trail Blazers played their best basketball of the season down the stretch just to get into the playoffs. They went 12-3 during a 15-game stretch that helped them secure the No. 8 seed and a meeting with the Golden State Warriors.
And the Blazers clearly aren't afraid of the Warriors. They were actually tied at the end of the 3rd quarter in Game 1 with a chance to win in the 4th. And they only lost by 2 and 8 points in their previous two meetings during the regular season, so they haven't lost by more than 12 in any of the last three meetings.
The Blazers may get a break tonight due to the injury to Kevin Durant. He suffered a calf strain in Game 1 and may not play tonight. Not to mention both Shaun Livingston and Matt Barnes are questionable to go tonight for the Warriors as well.
Bets on underdogs of 10 or more points (PORTLAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 112-68 (62.2%) ATS since 1996. The Blazers are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
DAVE PRICE
Nationals vs. Braves
Play: Braves +113
The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Atlanta Braves as home underdogs to the Washington Nationals. The Braves have certainly enjoyed success in their new stadium, going 4-1 at home this season. Now they send ace Julio Teheran to the mound to do battle with Joe Ross and the Nationals. Teheran has been nothing short of dominant, going 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA while allowing just 2 earned runs in 19 innings over 3 starts this season. Ross will be making his first start of the season for the Nationals. Ross is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta. Teheran is 8-0 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better in his career.
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Rangers vs. A's
Play: A's -1½
The Rangers have dropped four of their last five games overall and are 1-5 in their last six road games versus a team with a losing record. They're also 4-11 in their last 15 games versus a right-handed starter and have now dropped four of their last five divisional games as well. Perez is 6-5 against the A's, and is 3-2 in the Coliseum. The A's will send Hahn to the mound. Hahn is a great pitcher, and is pitching a 3.75 ERA. Hahn takes the victory here. 7-4.
MARK FRANCO
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs
Play: Capitals -145
The Washington Capitals find themselves losing ground as they fight an uphill battle against both the upstart Toronto Maple Leafs as well as their own postseason demons. After sustaining back-to-back post-regulation losses, the Presidents' Trophy-winning Capitals look to avert being pushed to the brink of elimination on Wednesday when they play Game 4 against the Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre.
Capitals are 50-15 in their last 65 vs. Atlantic and are 6-2 in their last 8 road games. Maple Leafs are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Capitals are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings and will come out and get the win to even this series.
Bob Balfe
Reds -105
Amir Garrett has looked great this year and the once great Ubaldo Jimenez looks washed up. It’s always hard for a team to go on the road and face left handed pitching especially against a pitcher who is locked in to start the season.
OC Dooley
Wild / Blues Over 5
Even though host St. Louis has a commanding 3-0 series lead, Minnesota is amazingly cast as a road favorite which actually has me on tonight's total. During the regular season Minnesota was ranked #2 in all of hockey in combined goals scored and the oddsmakers are telling us they will finally break loose against a St. Louis defense that has held them to just 3 goals in the intial three games combined. To give you an idea how dominant St. Louis has been in this playoff series, 2 of the Minnesota goals scored came on a power play (5-to-3 advantage on the ice) along with a situation where the Wild pulled the goalie to get an extra attacker. While St. Louis has played above the total just 3 times in the past 13 outings, this "series" has produced 5 consecutive under's which in my mind has low-balled tonight's spot. Here is a "37-8" SYSTEM (82-percent the past five years with a posted total of 5-or-less goals) which plays ROAD teams like Minnesota in TRIPLE REVENGE against an opponent OVER the spot immediately following a road defeat. In the past THREE YEARS after 3 consecutive games against Divisional competition Minnesota is a staggering 6-0 OVER/ROAD making this wager a very high percentage move