DAVE COKIN
PIRATES AT PADRES
PLAY: PADRES -108
It’s a battle of lefties tonight at Petco with Jeff Locke throwing for the Pirates and Drew Pomeranz on the hill for the Padres.
Locke is a guy I’ve looked for spots to fade going back a few years. It’s entirely conceivable those days might be coming to a close in the very near future. Locke’s rotation spot has to be in jeopardy with star prospect Tyler Glasnow looking very ready at Indianapolis. I would guess that once the service clock ticks off a year, Glasnow will be up and Locke will see a reduced role.
But in the meantime, Locke is on the mound tonight and he’s not arriving in what one would call good form. The lefty was a mess in his last start and I rarely have a problem trying to beat pitchers who are having trouble locating the strike zone.
Drew Pomeranz is off to an encouraging start for the Friars. The oft-injured southpaw is healthy for the time being and he’s thrown it well out of the gate. Pomeranz can still bring it, and while his command can vanish at times, he’s generating plenty of swings and misses right now.
Pomeranz has a decent chance to show well tonight against a Pittsburgh lineup that isn’t hitting lefties especially well thus far. Believe it or not, the feeble Padres are actually knocking southpaws around surprisingly well and they were in slug mode on Tuesday night.
The Pirates have a great closer in Mark Melancon, but getting to the shutdown ninth inning guy has been a bit of an issue. The San Diego pen is fairly pedestrian in terms of talent, but the fact is they’re in better current form than their counterparts heading into this matchup.
I like the fact the Padres opened as small chalk for this game. That’s a good indicator as far as I’m concerned as public bettors are sure to find the Pirates very attractive at this price. I prefer Pomeranz over Locke by a decent margin and with the hosts riding a little positive momentum off last night’s win, I’m willing to put my dollars on the Padres this time.
Sleepyj
Pistons / Cavs Under 201
Rather high total for these two teams in a Game 2...Detroit shot well in game 1 and made it rather interesting..Cleveland will do all it can to take care of business here with defense..Detroit knows trying to out shoot the Cavs is going to be tough, so they will need strong defense as well..Love had a good game in Game 1 and I expect him to struggle in this one..Cavs can score and so can Detroit, but asking for 202 points in this game looks rather tough..I'm on the under....97-88 Final.
Clips -8.5...At one point in the game I realized just how outmatched the Blazers are...In every spot on the court the Clippers have an answer...Blazers might be looking at another DD loss no matter how hard they play.
Rob Vinciletti
Dodgers vs. Braves
Play: Over 8
This game fits a nice 89% totals system direct from the database. Since 2004 road teams like the Dodgers have posted over the total off a road favored loss at -200 or higher 89% if they lost by 5+ runs and scored 4 or less runs. LA Averages 6 runs per game on the road and has gone over 5 of 6 times on the road off a road favored loss. Atlanta has gone over in 5 of 6 at home and 7 of 9 vs rightys. The Braves have a dismal 8.60 home bullpen era. J. Teheran has a 7.36 career Era vs LA. He will oppose Stripling here making just his 2nd road start. Look for this one to play over the total.
Ben Burns
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -117
The Jays took yesterday's series opener but the O's should have a solid chance to even things up here.
Dickey hasn't looked very good so far this season. He's made three starts and has failed to go more than five innings in any of them. Overall, he's got an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.909 WHIP. Jimenez wasn't great (4 runs, 5 innings) at Boston last time out. He was sharp, however, in his lone home start. In that one, he allowed just one earned run through seven innings, striking out nine without walking a batter. He showed more in that performance, arguably, than Dickey has all season.
Note that the O's are 4-1 the last five times that Jimenez started against the Jays. The O's outscored the Jays by a whopping 32-11 margin in those five games, too.
The O's have thrived as slight home favorites the past couple of seasons. In fact, they're 40-24 (+12.5) the last 64 times that they played a home game where the line ranged from +100 to -125. Yesterday notwithstanding, Baltimore has also dominated A.L. East opponents.
So far this season, the O's are hitting much better than the Jays and their bullpen has been much better than Toronto's. All things considered, this line could easily be higher.
Stephen Nover
Cardinals -117
The Cubs are going for their first road sweep of the Cardinals since 2010. I don't see them getting it in this day game.
The pitching matchup is Kyle Hendricks versus Carlos Martinez. Hendricks is a bottom of the rotation starter while Martinez could be an ace for teams less stocked in pitching talent than the Cardinals. St. Louis won all four of Martinez's starts against the Cubs last year. Martinez has a 3.06 ERA during his past three starts against the Cubs. The Cardinals have won 77 percent of Martinez's past 31 starts.
Hendricks has a 4.28 ERA in five career starts versus the Cardinals. The right-hander has a 4.91 ERA in two starts at Busch Stadium. Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday are a combined 12-for-22 against Hendricks with three home runs.
St. Louis is 7-2 in its past nine games against a right-handed starter.
Marc Lawrence
Mets vs. Phillies
Play: Mets -133
Edges - Mets: Bartolo Colon 4-1 last five team starts in Philadelphia; and 9-3 last twelve away team starts during April. Phillies: Jeremy Hellickson 3-8 last eleven April team starts, including 0-3 at home. With the Phillies just 6-14 as a host in this series, we recommend a 1* play on the N.Y. Mets.
Mike Lundin
Cardinals -117
The Chicago Cubs have not swept the Cardinals in St. Louis since Sept. 13-15, 2010, and I don't think it will happen today either. Chicago has won the first two games of this series 5-0 and 2-1, but the Cards have been fairly unlucky going 0-for-14 with runners in scoring position.
That luck could change today against Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 2.84 ERA) who is 0-1 in four starts against the Cardinals and has compiled a 4.91 ERA in two outings at Busch Stadium. Matt Holiday is 6-for-10 with a home run in previous meetings with the right-hander and Matt Holiday 6-for-12 with a pair of homers.
The Cardinals will turn to Carlos Martinez (2-0, 3.46) who is 2-0 with a 4.55 ERA in 14 games (four starts) against the Cubs and the Cards have won each of the four starts.
Jim Feist
Rays vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 8½
Fenway is a great offensive park and Tampa Gay goes with struggling Chris Archer (0-3, 5.87 ERA). Even last year when he was better he struggled against Boston, 0-2 with a 3.74 ERA. In fact, the last three years he is 0-6 against the Red Sox with a 5.12 ERA. Tampa Bay is on a 10-4-1 run over the total when Archer takes the mound. The over is also 16-5-3 in the Rays last 24 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Boston is No. 9 in baseball in runs scored, 10-3-1 over the total at home against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Boston has a lousy arm going in Rick Porcello (5.11 ERA), with a 4.50 ERA at Fenway the last 3+ years. And the Over is 4-1 in Archer's last 5 starts vs. the Red Sox.
Matt Josephs
Rockies vs. Reds
Play: Under 8
Raisel Iglesias makes his fourth start of the season and it's against a team who has not faced him before. Iglesias is 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA and a WHIP of 1.440. The righty has pitched better at home where he has 12 K's to just two walks. Only Mark Reynolds has seen the Reds pitcher before so that should help. I have to think the Rox will not be starting all their starters as they wrap up a six game road trip on Wednesday afternoon. Cincy's bullpen is rough so that's a worry, but I think Iglesias can go deep enough to nullify their impact. Chad Bettis is also facing a team for the first time in his career. The righty hasn't pitched awful outside of a rough first start at Arizona. Bettis has given up one earned run and nine hits in his last two outings. The Reds aren't exactly crushing the ball right now. They were hitting .233 in their past seven before Tuesday night. Cincy's lineup won't have all regulars either. I just think we're getting a good value here with weakened lineups and not awful starters.
Bob Harvey
Hornets vs. Heat
Play: Heat -4½
The Miami Heat look to open up a 2-0 lead in their best-of-seven series against the Charlotte Hornets when the two teams meet in South Beach. The Heat set a franchise record for points scored as the rolled a 123-91 victory.
The Hornets (48-35, 42-40-1 ATS) had the “deer in the headlights” look in the opener and never lead. They were swept by the Heat in the 2014 playoffs and eight regular-season matchups since have been split even though the Hornets have lost 15 of 16 in Miami, where the Heat have won seven in a row overall and 13 of 15 since the All-Star break.
Entering the series, the Heat (49-34, 44-38-1) had a clear advantage in experience with Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson all logging postseason minutes. Deng led the way with a season-high 31 points on 11 of 13 shooting in Game 1 to lead a 57.6 percent shooting effort from the Heat. Big man Hassam Whiteside, playing in his first postseason game, had 21 points on 9 of 11 shooting with 11 rebounds and three block shots in 26 minutes. In addition Miami out-rebounded Charlotte 49-37 and outscored it in the paint 56-36.
The OVER has been the totals play between these two teams. The OVER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings in Miami and 11-5 in the past 16 overall. Additionally, Charlotte is 6-0 to the high side in its last six and 4-0 in its four road games.
The Heat are 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings overall and have taken the last five playoff meetings.
Big Al
Dallas vs. Minnesota
Pick: Dallas
Of all of the first-round match-ups, this one is perhaps the most lopsided in terms of scoring prowess. For the regular season, the Stars rank #1 overall with an average of 3.23 goals per game, while the Wild comes in at 2.60 (18th). But the Stars really turned it on towards the end of the season, averaging 3.57 goals per game for the month of March while averaging just over 30 shots on goal per game. More bad news for Minnesota as last season's leading scorer winger Zach Parise (who was also the second-leading scorer this season) may require microsurgery to relieve pressure on his spinal column which would certainly end his post-season. Parise didn't travel with the team to Dallas nor play in game three, but the team was still hoping he would make it back in time for the remaining games. That doesn't appear likely now as Parise won't suit up tonight. The Stars took four of the five meetings with the Wild during the regular season and three of those were in Minnesota. The road team was 4-0 in the last four meetings of the regular season.
Will Rogers
Colorado vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Under
The Reds are in a three way tie for second place in the NL Central, and they host the Colorado Rockies in the rubber match of a three game set at Great American Ballpark this afternoon. The Reds tied the series with a 4-3 win in Game 2, and we could see another low scoring contest here in this matinee on Wednesday.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Cincinnati will hand the ball to Raisel Iglesias, who has pitched very well in Cincinnati so far. He allowed three runs on 14 hits, striking out a dozen in 11.2 innings in two home starts. The Rockies will counter with 26 year old right-hander Chad Bettis, who makes his first career start against the Reds.
2. Previous History - The Rockies may trend over at home, but they've gone under in four of their last five on the road. They've also trended under at a rate of 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games with Bettis on the mound.
3. X-Factor - The Rockies have gone under in eight of their last 10 when Bettis starts.
Scott Spreitzer
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat
Pick: Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte had one big disadvantage going into this series, much less playoff experience than their counterparts. Charlotte certainly looked nervous in game one, a 32 point loss. But with a game under their belt, I expect to see the team that won 18 of their previous 24 games. The Hornets want to up the tempo, while Miami would like a more deliberate pace, despite what happened in game one. And we should note that the Heat have covered just 14 of their last 39 against teams that average at least 103 ppg. NBA road teams in revenge of a loss by 20 or more points are on a 77-47 ATS run with the opponent off a home win, and Charlotte is on a 20-7 ATS run in revenge of a loss by 20 or more. I expect much more from the Hornets tonight and in fact, I'm recommending a play on Charlotte plus the points.
John Ryan
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Pick: Houston Astros
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 94-69 over the last 5 seasons. It has won 58% but earned +58.1 units. Play against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, terrible power team - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is 22-10 (+12.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. They are 53-36 (+13.0 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games over the last 2 seasons and 40-20 (+18.9 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points Texas' starting pitcher Cole Hamels is poor this season with his two starts at home in Arlington. He has given up 3 homeruns, an ERA of 3.65, and a hit per inning pitched.
Larry Ness
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants
Zack Greinke was roughed up in home losses to Colorado and the Chicago Cubs to open his Arizona D’backs career but he held San Diego to two runs over 7.1 innings in Arizona's 3-2 road victory last Friday. Clearly, Friday’s effort was a major improvement from the first two and he told MLB's official website, "All the pitches were working pretty good and hopefully I can keep building on it.” Greinke (0-2, 6.75 ERA) produced dominant numbers against the Giants during his three seasons with the rival Dodgers, going 7-0 with a 1.94 ERA in nine starts against San Francisco.
He now faces a San Francisco team that was stymied once again at home by Arizona pitching on Tuesday. Robbie Ray worked six strong innings in Tuesday's 3-0 win, the D-backs' third straight overall and 10th in 12 games at AT&T Park, where Arizona starters have combined for a 1.74 ERA over that span. Pitching has been an issue of late for the 7-8 Giants, with their staff recording a 6.20 ERA in losing SIX of seven. Arizona collected 16 hits in rallying for a 9-7, 11-inning win in Monday's opener of this four-game set.
Madison Bumgarner (1-1, 4.50) has struggling early on in 2016 and was ‘off’ in Friday's 7-3 road loss to the Dodgers, surrendering two HRs and seven runs over five-plus innings, though three were unearned due to three Giants' errors. "He made a few mistakes, a few more than normal," manager Bruce Bochy said. "We just didn't play a clean game. That would have helped matters. That's very uncommon for us, because we usually catch the ball." However, expect Bumgarner to benefit from a return to AT&T Park, where he's 7-2 with a 1.48 ERA in 10 starts since last June 28 (Giants are 7-3). Bumgarner struck out eight Dodgers while allowing just one run over six innings on April 9, his lone home so far in 2016. Bumgarner comes through for the Giants.