Ralph Michaels
Portland +8.5
In the Clippers 20 point win in game #1 LA shot 53.8% while Portland shot 39.8%. The Trailblazers are a very resilient teams and after their last 16 loses they have gone 12-4 ATS and three of the ATS losses where outright wins and they were a sizable favorite. That means in their last 16 games off a loss they have only lost and failed to cover once. Another reason to expect a bounce back is that the Clippers did something they've rarely done which is pressure their opponent at the half court line which Portland will be ready for tonight. Lastly the Clippers are second last in the league in FT% which wasn't a factor in a 20 point final but with the game closer it sure will be.
Teddy Davis
Brewers -125
I like the value here with the Brewers @ home as they send Jimmy Nelson to the mound who has been impressive with a 2-1 start and an ERA of 2.79. He has pitched at least 6 innings in every game and the most runs he has gave up is only 2. The Twins have yet to win a road going 0-6. Milone taking the mound for the Twins hasn't been walking anyone but has had a problem giving up the long ball. He has served up 4 HR in just 10 innings that is an area for concern.
Jimmy Boyd
Padres -105
San Diego took the series opener 5-4 last night and are showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home in Game 2. Pittsburgh is not playing well right now, as the Pirates are just 3-7 over their last 10. I look for their woes to continue tonight.
Pittsburgh will send out Jeff Locke, who has a very misleading 2.53 ERA after 2 starts. While the ERA is impressive, Locke comes in with an ugly 1.968 WHIP, as he's walked 9 batters in just 10 2/3 innings of work. Locke is 0-2 with 10.00 ERA and 2.333 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Padres and 1-9 with a 6.62 ERA in his last 16 starts against the NL West, including 0-6 with a 6.56 ERA in 9 road starts.
The Padres will counter with Drew Pomeranz, who has been sharp in his first two outings of 2016. Pomeranz has a 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP, having allowed just 4 runs on 7 hits in 11 innings of work. Pomeranz should have a big advantage here, as this will be the first time this season that the Pirates have faced a left-handed starter.
Martin Griffiths
Everton vs. Liverpool
Play: 3
There is nothing better than a derby and this one is always a passionate and emotional affair, normally with loads of yellow cards and red cards and on the odd occasion, a goal feast.
That is how I see this game going this evening, I see goals and cards galore, though it is anyone’s guess who will actually win the game.
Liverpool are the form team of course and they are at home, but that really is meaningless when these two meet, same as when Arsenal play Tottenham and Man City play Man Utd, the favourites do not always win.
Neither team has a great defence really, they are more than capable of letting in goals, add to that the fact that both can score and have top strikers in their ranks, then goals is the way to go.
Zack Cimini
Detroit vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
We're seeing virtually no line movement on Wednesday's game two between the Cavaliers and Pistons. The spread in game one was 10.5 and today it is 10.
The Pistons seemed to use their regular season 3-1 series advantage over the Pistons to race out to a strong start in game one.
Overall they shot 51.7% from three point range on a whopping 15 of 29 shooting. That's a category we can expect to dip on Wednesday.
They're also a very young team with all five starters having less than four years of NBA experience.
I expect game two to be played much more aggressively by the veteran Cavaliers defensively to frustrate the young Pistons.
What was also impressive in the Cavaliers game one victory was their patience. Overall they had just four turnovers in the entire game and never seemed deterred with the Pistons leading.
Ultimately, the Pistons are one more scorer away from being an Eastern Conference threat. Take the points with the Cavaliers.
Wunderdog
Dallas Stars @ Minnesota Wild
Pick: Minnesota Wild +109
A young Dallas team is fortunate to be up 2-1, after a 2-1 win at home in Game 2 and then getting clobbered the last game 5-3. Dallas is on the road again, a young team that is short on defense and is playing only its second postseason series in the past eight years. Dallas has unraveled in the defensive zone for sustained stretches this season, including the last game, ranking #19 in the league in goals allowed. The Stars blew a 2-0 lead in Game 3, going nearly 50 minutes without scoring as the Wild controlled the action, finishing with a 25-17 shots-on-goal advantage. Stars goalie Kari Lehtonen had only 20 saves on 24 tries, while Minnesota veteran goalie Dubnyk stopped 14 of 17 shots. The Wild's interim coach John Torchetti put forwards Kurtis Gabriel and Zac Dalpe on the fourth line and scratched Ryan Carter and Jarret Stoll. Torchetti has been calling for more crashing the net, and the Wild came through, winning the battle of hits and face-offs. Minnesota has the far better defense (ninth in goals allowed), is on an 8-4 run at home in the postseason, plus 10-5 when playing on one day of rest. With the home team 40-16 when these teams clash, grab the home dog and play on Minnesota in Game 4.
Nelly
Oakland Athletics + over New York Yankees
A Yankees franchise known for prolific offense has now scored just 16 runs in the last seven games with a 1-5 run in the past six contests. It is early but the Yankees sit in last place in the AL East and the pitching hasn't been good enough to carry New York through a prolonged offensive drought. After finishing 14-3 with a 4.20 ERA last season Nathan Eovaldi was a clear cut candidate to regress in 2016 especially considering his marginal career track record pitching in more favorable parks than Yankee Stadium. Eovaldi has been hit hard in two 2016 outings allowing nine runs in just over 11 innings of work. Oakland doesn't have great offensive potential but this has been a scrappy group that has climbed to .500 with three straight wins despite a formidable first month schedule. The Oakland bullpen has been very sharp with Ryan Madson as the closer and several former closers in set-up roles as Oakland has addressed its biggest weakness from 2015 successfully so far. Kendall Graveman had mixed results last season for Oakland in 21 starts but he had good strikeout numbers this spring and in two 2016 starts he is yet to pick up a win but he has allowed just three runs and seven hits in over 11 innings of work. Graveman had a good start against the Yankees last season in a win and Oakland has been pretty successful in this series of late with wins in seven of the last 10 and 13 of the last 18 including beating Eovaldi last July. New York has a losing record at home this season while Oakland is 4-0 in road games and in a matchup where runs will be at a premium backing the more consistent starter and bullpen with underdog pricing looks favorable.
Drew Martin
Washington +103
The Florida Marlins play host to the NL East leading Washington Nationals tonight for the third game of a four-game set. Each of the first two contests were of the blowout variety with the Marlins winning the opener 6-1 and the Nats returning the favor last night 7-0. The Marlins send their opening day starter Wei-Yin Chen to the hill to oppose former first rounder 22-year-old Joe Ross. A few metrics favoring Washington combined with the early money coming in on Chen, offers a nice discount tonight on the first place Nationals. Ross has been solid in his first two outings going 2-0 with a 0.61 ERA. His sinker/slider approach projects well tonight against this Marlins lineup with two of the strongest bats for Miami in Stanton and Prado coming from the side side. Right handed batters are 3-for-27 against Ross with 8 Ks and no walks. Chen on the other hand has struggled a bit this year with a 5.56 ERA that perhaps is connected to some well below average velocity readings. He's also had issues against the Nationals during his four seasons with Baltimore, logging a 1-3 record and 5.09 ERA in four starts. The move in the market gives us a great buy low opportunity on the Nationals, I recommend backing the Washington Nations as the small underdog tonight in Miami.
Kyle Hunter
Pirates at Padres
Play: Padres
The Pittsburgh Pirates start Jeff Locke in this one, and Locke has been terrible away from home in his career. Locke has a 4.37 ERA on the road in his career and that number rises to 5.45 in his last 15 road starts. Drew Pomeranz starts for the Padres here, and I'm high on him this year. Pomeranz has developed a new pitch and that seems to be making a big difference for him. This is a guy who all the scouts loved a few years ago, it seems like he just bloomed late. The Padres have a .260 OBP against righties, but they have a .320 OBP against lefties, so I think they can get to Locke. The Pirates bullpen is way down this year as well, and the Padres pen is improved.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta +124
Ross Stripling has looked sharp his first two outings. He has allowed three runs in 13 1/3 innings, but now the right-hander goes up against the suddenly red-hot Atlanta Braves. The Braves lost their first nine games before winning four straight, including 8-1 last night when catcher Tyler Flowers went four-for-four and five pitchers held the Dodgers to their one run. Julio Teheran is coming off two rough starts, but he is 22-10 with a 2.66 ERA at home the last three seasons and 5-1 in April. The Dodgers have scored just seven runs their last three games while the Braves have scored 26 during their winning streak. We're getting good value with a home underdog, so play on the Braves.
Bruce Marshall
Tigers / Royals Under 7.5
After a wild 8-6 scoreline last night between these teams, expect action to be a bit more sedated on Wednesday. Especially with a tasty pitching matchup that suggests a lower-scoring game. Ian Kennedy has effortlessly stepped into the Royals' rotation and has an 0.66 ERA in his first two starts. But Detroit's Jordan Zimmerman has yet to allow a run over 13 IP in his two starts.
Dave Essler
Baltimore -125
Sorry for not getting this out at a better number - I see the number has come back a bit, which you expect with "Toronto", I suppose. The majority of tickets are on the Orioles (it's early - but I don't see that changing) and obviously I agree. Ubaldo has only given up one bomb in 12 innings, he's struck out 14, and for the most part has kept the ball down. Bautista has two hits in thirty at bats against him, and Edwin has six hits in thirty-two at bats - which are "reasonable" sample sizes. There's a few Jays (Colabello for one) that have had SOME success in limited at bats - but bottom line is that Jiminez the last three years against Toronto is 5-3 with a 2.83 ERA. We'll take that, and although I don't like that he can get his pitch count high (less likely here at the Jays are usually free swingers), Baltimore's bullpen is that much better than Toronto's. The O's are 5-1 at home with a bullpen WHIP of 1.02 (excellent). Dickey has a WHIP nearing 2.00 in three games and hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in any of them. He's walked 8 in 14 innings. Adam Jones may not play but that's fine since he's hitting .120 off Dickey. The Jays' killers will (might) be Machado and Trumbo. If Dickey doesn't last (as he hasn't been) the Jays bullpen has a 4.66 ERA on the road and has already blown two saves. Brett Cecil pitched the last two nights and might not be available, and they saw Osuna last night, whereas the Orioles used NONE of their "A" team out of the pen. Just way too many ways the Orioles win this game.
Ray Monohan
San Francisco Giants -133
The Giants have scuffled against the Diamondbacks this series and send their ace out for Game 3. Bumgarner has dominated at AT&T Park. The Giants ace has gone 7-2 with a 1.48 ERA in 10 starts since last June 28. The Giants are 7-3 in those starts and the 3 losses are thanks in large part to the bullpen blowing it late.
San Francisco will be countered by Zack Greinke, who has struggled this year. He has gone 0-2 with an ERA of 6.75 He's struggled through all three starts this year, as his command has just not been there. He's been leaving balls up and exposing himself to extra base hits.
Some trends to consider. Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarners last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or
less in their previous game. Giants are 6-1 in Bumgarners last 7 Wednesday starts.
Look for a bounce back spot here as Bumgarner plays stopper, with the Gaints taking Game 3.
Jeff Alexander
Rays +100
Tampa Bay's Chris Archer has gotten off to an awful start in 2016, posting a 5.87 ERA and 1.957 WHIP in 3 starts. That would lead most to stay clear of Archer and the Rays on the road agains the Red Sox, but it's only a matter of time before the ace figures things out. I like his chances of getting back on track against Boston, who managed just 1 hit in yesterday's shutout loss. The Red Sox have totaled just 6 runs on 12 hits in their last 3 games combined. Boston will give the ball to Rick Porcello, who has a 5.11 ERA and unlike Archer isn't likely to turn things around. Red Sox are 1-10 in their last 11 after getting shutout in their previous game, while Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 as a dog of +100 to +150.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -110
The Baltimore Orioles will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing two straight and four of their last five coming in. At the same time, look for the Toronto Blue Jays to take their foot off the gas after winning three straight coming in.
I believe the Orioles have the edge on the mound tonight behind Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA through two starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA at home. Jimenez has held his own against the Blue Jays, going 6-4 with a 3.95 ERA in 12 career starts against them, including 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last two.
R.A. Dickey continues to be one of the most overpaid starting pitchers in baseball. The 41-year-old knuckleballer has struggled to open 2016, going 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.909 WHIP through three starts. He has given up 11 earned runs and 28 base runners over 14 2/3 innings this season.
The Orioles are 16-5 in Jimenez's last 21 home starts, including 12-2 in his home starts over the past two seasons. Baltimore is 66-31 in its last 97 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Orioles are 14-3 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 10-1 in its last 11 home games. The Blue Jays are 6-15 in Dickey's last 21 starts vs. AL East opponents.