Brandon Lee
Tigers/Royals Under 8
These two teams combined for 14 runs in Kansas City's 8-6 win in yesterday's series opener and I believe it has created some big time value here on the UNDER in Game 2. The Tigers will give the rock to Jordan Zimmermann, who hasn't allowed a run in his first two starts. The Royals counter with Ian Kennedy, who has given up just 1 run in his first two outings. Even with yesterday's offensive explosion, the UNDER is still 5-1 in the Royals last 6 home games and 9-3 in their last 12 overall.
John Ryan
Astros vs. Rangers
Play: Astros +117
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 94-69 over the last 5 seasons. It has won 58% but earned +58.1 units. Play against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, terrible power team - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is 22-10 (+12.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. They are 53-36 (+13.0 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games over the last 2 seasons and 40-20 (+18.9 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points Texas' starting pitcher Cole Hamels is poor this season with his two starts at home in Arlington. He has given up 3 homeruns, an ERA of 3.65, and a hit per inning pitched. Pick Houston Astros.
Joseph D'Amico
Blazers vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -8½
Los Angeles thumped Portland, 115-95 in the series opener, shooting 53.8% from the field and outrebounding the Blazers, 48-40. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum were devoured by Chris Paul and JJ Redick. The Talented backcourt tandem will go uncontested again here. The Trailblazer's are 0-4 ATS their L4 overall while the Clippers are 4-0 ATS their L4 at home. take LAC.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers +100
The Detroit Tigers spent big money to bring in Jordan Zimmerman in the offseason from the Washington Nationals. It is paying off in a big way in the early going. Zimmerman has been virtually untouchable through 2 starts, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP. He has allowed only 8 hits in his 13 innings this season without allowing a single run. Ian Kennedy is also off to a great start for the Royals, but he's 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA in 3 lifetime starts versus Detroit. His teams are 0-3 in those starts having never won.
SPS Investors
Dodgers vs. Braves
Pick: Dodgers
The LA Dodgers are coming off an absolute beat down at the hands of the Atlanta Braves last night. Jeff Francour and Tyler Flowers were a two man show for ATL, combining for 6 of the teams 10 hits and 5 RBIs enroute to an 8-1 victory. It was one of the most efficient performances by the Braves this season and gave them their fourth straight victory.
The Dodgers seemed out of sorts from the get go and struggled in every phase of the game last night. Alex Wood gave up 7 hits and 6 total runs in just 4 innings of work. The Dodgers infield committed 3 total errors and the bats couldn't muster any offense as they had only 5 total hits while leaving 7 runners on base. It was an all-around poor effort from the Dodgers and not one that we expect to linger as they should have a bounce back performance in this contest tonight.
Julio Teheran will get the call for the Braves tonight and the Dodgers have been a team that he has struggled mightily against in his career. Not only have they hit him in the past, but they have hit him hard. He is 0-5 in 5 careers starts against the Dodgers with an extremely unimpressive 7.36 ERA and a 1.705 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will counter with rookie right hander Ross Stripling. Two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Stripling has been impressive in his first two starts this season for LA. In 13.3 innings pitched thus far, he has an impressive 2.03 ERA with 9 strikeouts. None of the Braves bats have had experience against him in the past so we believe the rookie could have the advantage on the mound in this contest while Atlanta's bats get accustomed to his delivery and release.
Yesterday was a poor showing by the Dodgers, but they are a much better team than they showed in that contest. We expect Stripling to get a longer than normal start in this contest given the stress that was placed on their bullpen yesterday. The Dodger's bats should also have a much better showing tonight against a pitcher whom has a long history of struggling with this lineup. These are short odds to lay on LA who will be in a prime bounce back situation.
SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS CITY -108 over Detroit
After spending the first seven years of his career in Washington, Jordan Zimmermann came over to the AL with a five-year contract with the Tigers. With 200+ IP in each of the past three years, Zimmermann looks to take his place as a reliable innings eater in Detroit.The change of venues shouldn’t significantly affect Zimmermann’s value. Zimmermann has a great first-pitch strike profile but he couldn’t maintain 2014’s boost. Still, at this level, he’s a good bet to limit free passes. He also couldn’t maintain the 2014 swing and miss rate so a return to the 8+ K’s in nine innings level probably isn’t in the cards. 2014 looks like the outlier for Zimmermann. In two starts this year, he has a BB/K split of 5/7 in 13 innings with an ERA of 0.00. His xERA is 4.64 so some runs against are him absolutely forthcoming. Zimmermann will indeed give the Tigers innings and he'll win some games but his ERA after two starts is a complete mirage. Sell high.
By contrast, Ian Kennedy is a pitcher to keep a close eye on. It would be easy to view Kennedy’s 2014 season (3.63 ERA) as an aberration, since a return of 4+ ERA gives him three in four years. However, the only reason it reached that threshold was a fluky hr/f. Another year of skill gains coupled with Kennedy’s 2nd half spike of same makes '14 much more likely than '15. Among established starters, this one has sneaky profit potential. Kennedy’s command surge last year was supported by his 10.7% swing and miss stuff and by his and 63% first-pitch strike rate. He's a good bet to post a near-3.50 ERA in 2016 or less. Kennedy has started with a 3/14 BB/K split in 14 frames this year and has never looked better than he does right now. Cheap price on the better team, pitcher and bullpen at home
SAN DIEGO (5 innings) -107
After two starts, Jeff Locke has a 2.53 ERA. Is it process or results? In early June of last year, Locke made a mechanical adjustment, altered between-start routine and intensified focus on getting ahead. His second half first-pitch strike rate says it was successful though his control and ERA never got the memo. There is some potential small control gains if it continues, but Locke’s subpar strikeout rate and .274 oppBA from last year cloud the overall outlook. Furthermore in those two starts this season, Locke has walked nine batters while striking out just five. Locke found success during his first full season in the majors back in 2013, but it was evident that his skills didn't match the results. A ground ball tilt is by far his strongest attribute, but it hasn't been enough to offset the lack of whiffs and the mediocre control. He comes into this start with a 5.96 xERA and we pay much more attention to xERA’s than surface stats. Regression is on the way.
The Pirates lead the majors in BA against right-handers but they are hitting just .235 against southpaws and will face one here, thus the five-inning wager. Last season with the A's, Drew Pomeranz had a 3.66 ERA in 53 games, including nine starts. He posted a 4.63 ERA in those nine starts and a 2.61 ERA in his 44 relief appearances. However, Pomeranz much prefers to start and said so in spring. Pomeranz, showing a curveball, changeup and fastball blew away guys in the spring. "It was probably the first time that I've thrown out of the windup in two or three years, so I was glad to get what I got," Pomeranz said.
Pomeranz has 15 K’s in 11 innings, which comes with full support of his elite 18% swing and miss rate. A former fifth overall pick, Pomeranz has the upside to stick in the rotation. He posted these same outstanding skills as a starter in April 2015 before he was sent to the bullpen due to a shoulder concern. Few relievers were better than Pomeranz over the last two months of 2015 (28/2 K/BB in 21 IP). He also featured a filthy 19% swing and miss rate over 12 appearances in August. What we’re seeing from Pomeranz is nothing new but his health has prevented him from a full season of starting. Healthy now after surgery and throwing exceptionally well, we’re buyers at this price.
Minnesota +115 (5 innings)
Jimmy Nelson has some pretty sweet numbers so far. He has three quality starts in three tries to go along with a 2.93 ERA. Throw in a oppBA of .179 and we can understand his market appeal. However, things aren’t as rosy as they appear. Over 19 innings, Nelson has allowed just 12 hits but four of those left the yard. He’s also walked nine batters in 19 innings. So what we have here is a pitcher with a low ERA that allows jacks, walks batters and is often behind in the count. Jimmy Nelson has upside but that profile says some disasters are coming and the Twins have more than enough power to hit some out of this park. When they do, there is a very good chance they won’t be solo shots. Milwaukee is a risky favorite on their best day with just 49 runs scored in 14 games while their pitching staff has allowed 80 runs.
Soft-tossing lefties typically need pinpont control to succeed. Milone came into the league with that skill and while he went off the tracks last season, he’s back on track this year with just two walks in 11 frames. That comes with the support of his 68% first-pitch strike rate. An increased use of his change-up has also helped Milone, as evidenced by his 53% groundball rate and 17% swing and miss rate when he throws it. Milwaukee is hitting a mere .175 against southpaws this season so it’s not unreasonable to expect five decent innings out of Milone. At the same time, it is not unreasonable to expect one or more of these power hitters on the Twinkies to go yard on Nelson and to do so after he walks a batter or two. We can never predict what will happen in a ball game because of the variances but we can find value and hope it works out. This is a perfect example of that value.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN JOSE -½ +141 over Los Angeles
Regulation only. After the Kings defeated the Sharks in OT in Game 3, the Sportsnet Panel of Elliott Friedman, Kelly Hrudey and Nick Kypreos were all beside themselves over how cool, poised and resilient the Los Angeles Kings were. Said Nick Kypreos,” These guys don’t panic being down 2-0 in a series. They have been there before and have all the experience in the world and know what to do. Hrudey responded, “It’s just so amazing to watch how they go about their business, knowing they were going to win this game.
Those three stooges should have done Abbott and Costello’s, “Who’s On First” routine because that’s how idiotic they sounded. Fact is, that game could have easily gone either way. The Sharks could have easily had a 3-0 lead very early in that game but Jonathan Quick made some huge saves. Had he not, those three stooges would have been talking about what a difference a coach makes. It’s just so easy to play results and talk about things that happened after the game is final to make yourself look like you know what you’re talking about. That’s Nick Kypreos to a tee.
In any event, we absolutely, 100% respect what the Kings are capable of. Los Angeles is a great team that could certainly come back and win this series. You can never count out a team as good as L.A. is. It’s a shame that these two can’t meet for the Stanley Cup final because they are that good and the games are crazy entertaining. It’s a bigger shame that one of them has to be eliminated in the first round. However, San Jose is still at home and they are still undervalued. The Kings at home are a -150 favorite and the Sharkies, who have not been outplayed, outshot or out-chanced, are a much smaller price at home. That’s incorrect as these two are so evenly matched that San Jose should be the same price at home as the Kings are but they’re not.
Philadelphia -½ +214 over Washington
Are the Capitals really motivated to win this game tonight? They handled their business and overcame a feisty crowd and an early Flyers goal in Game 3 to take a 3-0 series lead over the Flyers. A third home playoff game means a lot for the bottom line and while the players aren't selling peanuts and popcorn they might be content to finish the Flyers off in Game 5 at home in D.C. if Philly pushes them hard tonight. The 3-0 deficit as well as the scores in Games 2 and 3 are very deceiving. The Flyers have played some good hockey but have nothing to show for it. Philly was forced to stick with Steve Mason when the playoff started but with their backs against the wall tonight, the Flyers will turn to the better of their two goaltenders when Michael Neuvirth takes the crease. Philadelphia outshot Washington in Game 2, 42-23. The Flyers were in the box for 18 minutes last game, killing nine penalties, a five minute major and a 5 on 3. They still outshot Washington 32-27. This market expected Philadelphia to win one game in this series and that game was supposed to be the last one in celebration of Ed Snider’s life. The Flyers were a bit too jacked up and ended up being too aggressive and taking some bad penalties. Steve Mason’s shakiness didn’t help. The Caps may be a bit complacent here while Philadelphia will very likely play their best game of the series and score on some of their opportunities.
MINNESOTA +105 over Dallas
The Wild spotted the Stars a very early two-goal lead in Game 3 and still were able to overcome that adversity with their quality play by scoring the next five goals. The Stars have been a volatile team all season and their shortcomings both on defense and in goal have been discussed at length in this space. If Dallas doesn't score four or more they are in big, big trouble. Devin Dubnyk seems to have settled in and if he can get hot, watch out. The Wild have a big chip on their shoulder and now they have life. The market is in love with the Stars tonight at this seemingly cheap price, which are the scenario's we live for. When nobody loves ya babe, we do. Minnesota is coming off a strong third period in Game 2 in Dallas and an even stronger Game 3 in Minnesota. No reason to think they can’t keep it going here.
N.Y. ISLANDERS -½ +147 over Florida
This line opened at -110 a side, which we find pretty curious. We find it curious because the Islanders are -180 to win this series, yet the Panthers are taking most of the money in Game 4. Maybe it's because the Islanders seem lucky after having to come back again and again but we like what we see from them. Top to bottom the Isles are the better team here. Reilly Smith is the only guy scoring for the Panthers and Roberto Luongo continues to be a liability in net. If you see us bet on that stiff again, a friendly slap to the face will surely snap us out of it. Tonight we'll be on the Islanders, as we have no problem backing the better team, with a steadier goalie at home with a 2-1 series lead.
SPORTS WAGERS
Valero Texas Open head-to-head matchups and to win outright
Jhonattan Vegas -104 over K.J. Choi
Although not really a household name, J. Vegas has only three missed cuts in 11 events on the season and has quietly snuck into the Top 10 twice already this year. Jhonattan’s booming drive is good for 21st on TOUR and get this, he ranks first in the field this week for GIR (greens in regulation)! That combination alone is worth this wager, Also consider the fact that Vegas ranks 9th in Ball Striking and 3rd in GIR and you have a guy who looks like an excellent bet to defeat Choi at this week’s Valero Texas Open. (Risking 2.08 units to win 2)
Brendan Steele -106 over Ryan Palmer
Here’s what we know about TPC San Antonio. The course is long, so big hitters off the tee usually fair pretty well here. AT&T Oaks’ only challenge isn’t its length however and there is definitely an advantage to hitting as many greens in regulation as you can here. Not only did last year’s winner Jimmy Walker rank first here last year in GIR he also ranked first in Strokes Gained Putting.
From our view, this one looks like a mismatch, as Brendan Steele now returns to the spot where his only PGA TOUR win took place when this event first commenced back in 2011. He followed that victory up a year later with a T4 and added a T8 in 2015. Steele has exceptional power off of the tee and ranks currently 8th in the all-around. He’s been a little inconsistent as of late, but this could be a breakthrough week for him. If his ‘spotty’ putter compliments his power and GIR skills he’ll be right in the mix on Sunday. Meanwhile, Ryan Palmer is 39-years-old and while this event is right in his backyard (he’s from Texas), he’s not having a great year. Palmer finished +12 at the RBC Heritage last week. He has not finished higher than 13th all year in any event with his best showing of the year occurring way back in in mid-January at the Sony Open in Hawaii. (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
It’s a wide open field this week so this would definitely be a good week to try and cash in on some longshots to win it. We are going to take a shot with three of them:
J.B. Holmes. One of the favorites to win this week is Matt Kuchar but what Kuchar lacks in power, Holmes can provide. The long ball hitter is coming in off the heels of solid T4 at the Masters even with a nursed shoulder injury. He has five top-11 finishes in his last seven starts and seems to like TPC San Antonio as evidenced by his two top 15s here. Finau and Woodland are the only players on TOUR that rank ahead of him in Driving Distance and neither of them are playing this week, which makes him the longest hitter in the field for the VTO this year. With eight made cuts out of eight attempts there’s no denying that Holmes loves to stick around on the weekends. If his putting can hang with this long game Holmes might just be unstoppable this weekend.
Brendan Steele is someone we featured in our head-to-head matchups and will run that piece here as well:
Steele returns to the spot where his only PGA TOUR win took place when this event first commenced back in 2011. He followed that victory up a year later with a T4 and added a T8 in 2015. Steele has exceptional power off of the tee and ranks currently 8th in the all-around. He’s been a little inconsistent as of late, but this could be a breakthrough week for him. If his ‘spotty’ putter compliments his power and GIR skills he’ll be right in the mix on Sunday.
Aaron Baddeley has a pretty solid track record here being a perfect 4-for-4 in cuts made with three Top 20 finishes. In his last two visits to TPC San Antonio, Baddeley finished in the Top 10 twice and so far this season he has four Top 10 finishes to his name. He’s definitely progressing in the right direction and could use the VTO as a springboard into a strong spring/summer.
To win the Valero open:
Brenden Steele 48.80-1 (Risking 0.4 units)
Aaron Baddeley 68.34-1 (Risking 0.4 units)
JB Holmes 23.07-1 (Risking 0.4 units)
Harry Bondi
CLEVELAND -10.5 over Detroit
Another Free winner yesterday in baseball (thanks Frank!) and tonight we turn our attention back to the NBA Playoffs and back LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Detroit shot the lights out in game 1 and gave the Cav's a real scare. We think that "scare" will get LeBron and company ready to play for the entire game rather than just trying and winning in the fourth quarter. Playoffs have been full of blowouts and this ones another!
Scott Delaney
I'm listing only one pitcher tonight, as I'm going against Los Angeles rookie-phenom Ross Stripling.
True, this kid has been all the Dodgers could have hoped for in his first two starts, and I'm sure he will be that much better in helping to replace Zack Greinke. But it's because of his near no-hitter, and the fact he's allowed just three earned runs in 13 1/3 innings pitched, that I love the Braves.
First of all, he's still on that damn pitch count that ruined his chances at a no-hitter. Second, this is the first time he’ll be venturing out of the NL West in his young career, while heading into humid Atlanta. That can play heavy on an arm, and the deltoid muscle.
Just play the Atlanta Braves tonight against Stripling and don't worry about Julio Teheran. I told you last night with my 20 Dimer the Braves would win, and they took the opening game, 8-1.
The Braves (4-9) have plated at least six runs in each of the last four games after losing their previous nine. Now they're rolling a little bit, and you can expect to see this team get to the Dodgers rookie.
Also, remember, Los Angeles' bullpen is still suspect, and it'll be tough for it to overcome Atlanta's sudden hot streak at the plate. Take the Braves in this one.
4* BRAVES
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Diamondbacks and the Giants to hold Under the total with Greinke and Bumgarner doing the mound-work.
Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner are not exactly off to "blazing" starts this season, but they have been around long enough for me to know that they will figure things out sooner, rather than later, and I can see this duo dueling deep into the night tonight.
These teams combined for just 3 total runs last night - Arizona scoring all of them! - as the Under moved to 8-1 the last 9 times these N.L. West rivals have tangled.
Greinke went 7-0 with an under 2 ERA in his 9 starts against the Giants while wearing a Los Angeles uniform, while Bumgarner is 7-2 with an under 2 ERA in his last 10 home starts.
Both Greinke and Bumgarner are too good to keep struggling. Tonight they deal be-be's.
Diamondbacks-Giants Under the total.
5* ARIZONA-SAN FRANCISCO UNDER
Chris Jordan
I love the Under in the American League clash between the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians, as the two meet at Progressive Field in a slightly early game. This one starts an hour earlier than normal, and I think we're going to see a showdown between two well-performing pitchers.
Let's start with Walker, an athletic young pitcher with a balanced, receptacle delivery. He has a 2.25 ERA in two starts this year. Featuring a mid-90s fastball, a hard cutter-slider, a slow hook and an improving changeup, the 23-year-old is still looking for his first decision of the young season. He will have plenty of confidence on the hill since he dominated Cleveland in two outings last season, going 2-0 with one run, 10 hits, 14 strikeouts and two walks allowed over 14 innings.
Meanwhile, for the Tribe, we'll see Salazar, who has been strong out of the gates, compiling 16 strikeouts over 11 1/3 innings so far. Last Thursday against Tampa Bay, the hard-throwing righty featured an overpowering four-seam fastball that featured very good life. He fires in the mid-90s, and complements with a quick-biting slider and split-type change. This guy produces a lot of swings and misses with his change. On April 10, he struck out 10 White Sox hitters in just 3.2 innings, the most ever by a pitcher in fewer than four innings.
Look for a duel tonight.
3* Mariners/Indians Under
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Wednesday is to stick with 2 of the league leaders in ERA to continue their April assault on the hitters, as Detroit and Kansas City play Under the total on Wednesday night in KC.
Let's be real, neither Jordan Zimmerman nor Ian Kennedy are going to keep doing what they are doing, but right now they have totally baffled the hitters they have faced.
Zimmerman has not allowed an earned run over his first 13 innings of work in the American League, while Kennedy has allowed just one run in nearly 14 innings of work for the year!
Last night the teams combined for 14 runs, as they made it 8 straight series meetings Over the posted total.
Sorry, but tonight it's all about the April show Zimmerman and Kennedy are putting on.
Goose eggs up on the Kauffman Stadium scoreboard for sure.
Tigers-Royals to stay Under the posted price.
4* DETROIT-KANSAS CITY UNDER
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 45-30 run with complimentary plays: Houston at TEXAS (-120)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The American League West is my playground for tonight's complimentary winner, as I'm taking the Texas Rangers minus the money against the Houston Astros. Love the division-leading Rangers (8-6), as they come in having won two in a row and seven of 10, and catch the Astros during a rough start to the campaign. Houston is 2-5 on the road already, and will struggle in Arlington.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - I'm listing both scheduled starting pitchers, but I have to think the biggest factor will be Texas' Cole Hamels is the main ingredient to this winning recipe. The veteran southpaw steps to the hill on a nine-game winning streak, while the Rangers are 13-0 in his last 13 starts. He won his only start versus the Astros in 2015.
BOTTOM LINE is - I also like opposing Fister, who has yet to have a quality start in his first two outings with the Astros, lasting five innings against the Brewers on April 9 and 5.2 against Kansas City last Thursday. Something tells me he is going to get rocked in Arlington tonight, and could see the showers early.
4* TEXAS
Bob Balfe
Cavs -10.5
Detroit played well in their loss the other night to Cleveland as they shot the ball over 50% and yet still lost the game. The Pistons need hot shooting nights to make up for the turnovers and lack of rebounds they are going to get against this superior Cavs team. Sooner or later frustration sets in and the score gets run up.
Orioles -115
Baltimore has great power hitters that can crush the ball out of this park. R.A. Dickey had some mean stuff in his prime, but he is 41 years old and his age is starting to show. If Dickey does not have command of his curve ball he gets rocked. The Orioles should take advantage of a weaker arm and generate big hits in this one.