Free Picks for Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
SERIES - PREDATORS -125
Jake Allen was absolutely incredible in leading the Blues past the Wild. And believe me, I’m well aware of the perils of trying to beat a red hot goalie in the Stanley Cup playoffs. But Pekka Rinne is also blazing hot for Nashville, so I am making the goalie battle here a virtual stalemate.
St. Louis has home ice advantage, but let’s face it, that’s just not that big a deal in the Cup playoffs. Aside from that, I see Nashville playing better hockey than the Blues right now, and one might even argue it’s not that close.
The Predators were truly impressive in sweeping the Blackhawks. I don’t think the same can be said for the Blues. They were frequently outplayed against Minnesota. I think most would agree that if not for the incredible heroics of Allen, there’s a really good chance the Wild would have won the series.
The betting line for this series certainly bears out that line of thought as the lower seeded team is the favorite. I’m looking for Nashville to stay red hot by knocking off the Blues in this series.
Teddy Davis
Kansas City at Chicago
Play: Chicago -1½
The real value IMO is on the RL here. The Royals have been really struggling losing 6 in a row and 7 of 8. Their bats are ice cold right now as they can't score above 2 runs. The White Sox have won 3 straight now and will send their ace to the mound who is searching for his first win.
Quintana has pitched a lot better at home than what most will believe despite being 0-3 at home. He only has a 1.2 WHIP but a ERA over 5 suggesting he has pitched a lot better than the end results.
Royals send out Karns who has been very suspect on the road with an ERA over six in two starts. He has gave up 7 earned runs to only 9 strike outs. The Royals are also just 2-9 on the road this season.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Over 8
The Cubs were held to 2 hits tonight and they should put up some runs here tonight as they are scoring over 6 runs per game on the road and 4-0 over on the road if the total is 8 to 8.4 and 3 of 4 over off 4 or less hits. The Pirates are 8-0 over at home off a home loss scoring 4 or less runs. Glasnow has a great are but a terrible 7.94 Era this year. Lester has gone over the last 2 in this park. Look for both teams to put up some runs tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington to win East +165
The Capitals are in the -135 to -140 range to beat Pittsburgh in the second round but instead of spotting a price, we’ll take the Caps to advance to the next round, where they will be a much bigger favorite over New York or Ottawa, especially if they dispose of the Penguins quickly and then we’ll have Washington +165 in that series. At that point, we can always buy back the next opponent and free roll on the Caps, which is our plan for now. Therefore, this is a bet on Washington to defeat Pittsburgh to set up a free-roll for the East Finals.
What you are going to read or hear about over and over is Pittsburgh’s utter dominance against Washington over the last decade. Using that useless information to make a selection in this series is an exercise in futility. Of course the Penguins can win this series but if they do, it’s not because they beat Washington nine years ago.
Another thing you are going to read or hear about is the Capitals difficulty in disposing of the Maple Leafs. Well, let us turn that around. Toronto might have beaten almost any other team in the first round. They were loose, they’re extremely talented and they got outstanding goaltending from Fredrick Andersen for most of the series. The Capitals had to deal with speed, talent and an abundance of pressure to get by the first round. They answered the call in all areas and they also did not allow the Maple Leafs to sustain pressure in their end. For the most part, Toronto was one and done on far too many occasions. That first round prepped the Capitals well for what is in store for them here. The focus on the first round was how well the Maple Leafs played but let’s give some credit to the Capitals, as they were tremendous and also stepped up in the OT periods when they had to. Combine Washington’s difficulty with Toronto with Pittsburgh easily defeating the Jackets in five games and the market perception on this series is off.
Indeed the Pens defeated Columbus in five games but Pittsburgh was the second best team on the ice in all five games. We’re not going to bore you with all the stats but Columbus out-chanced, outshot, outworked and out-everythinged the Penguins in the first round and most of it was by a wide margin. The only reason that the Penguins aren’t watching round two from the rail is because Sergei Bobrovsky was atrocious. Had the Jackets switched to Joonas Korpisalo in Game 2, Pittsburgh would be golfing right now.
We often suggest not putting a lot of emphasis on one series or one game but it’s more than that. You see, the last repeat winners of the Cup were the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998, almost 20 years ago. That shows how difficult it is to repeat because playing well into June will burn out any team. Hockey is a physical, grueling game and to not have a significant break and then perform brilliantly in back-to-back playoff years is near impossible. We all saw the Sharks (last year’s other Stanley Cup finalist) bow out early this year and Pittsburgh should have been right behind them. The Penguins will not run into weak goaltending this series. Furthermore, the Penguins have to rely on Marc Andre Fleury and he’s always just a bad goal away from melting down entirely.
In the 2016 playoffs, Kris Letang exceeded 30 minutes of ice time in four of five games against the Capitals, including more than 35 minutes of regulation in Game 2. There will be no Kris Letang this year and that puts the Penguins at a disadvantage right off the bat. If anyone watched the Penguins trying to break out of their own end against the Jackets in the first round, it was painful. They were a mess and if they don’t or can’t clean that up, this series might be over quickly. The Pens might also be missing Carl Hagelin and Chris Kunitz for a game or longer and those role players are a big part of Pittsburgh’s success.
One can never count the Penguins out but the Capitals are hungrier and they’re better than Pittsburgh when the Pens don’t have Letang and are forced to use their backup goaltender. There is also the unlikely task of repeating that means so much more than Pittsburgh’s playoff domination over Washington. Teams’ still need a healthy dose of speed, skill and finesse to win at this time of year, but physicality becomes a big part of winning too. That is especially so on the forecheck, where a forward can disrupt a breakout with a big hit and cause a turnover. A disruptive hit early in a game can cause defensive indecision later and those turnovers and scoring chances keep coming. That’s what Columbus did to Pittsburgh and that’s what is likely to go down in this series too. The domination ends here.
We are going to make this a 3-unit bet with the intention of buying back one unit on the underdog in the next series should Washington get by Pittsburgh. That will set up a near free roll for 2 units at +165 in the East Finals.
Series - OTTAWA +135 over N.Y. Rangers
Series bet. The Rangers can win this series for sure. New York’s strength is that they can score goals and when you can score goals, you always have a chance. Rick Nash was a beast against Montreal. Despite scoring just two goals and an assist, he drove hard to the net and set the tone up front. Derek Stepan and Chris Kreider struggled against Montreal but it would be unreasonable to expect that pair to struggle in this series too. They are too good to not be noticeable. New York defeated Montreal and Carey Price in six games despite some big names not producing. Jimmy Vesey showed he was ready for prime time. Playing with a snarl and bite, he made plays the entire series and of course there is the usual suspects like Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad. Pavel Buchnevich and Michael Grabner round out a group of forwards that is as dangerous as any group in the game. Scoring goals is not the problem. The problem is puck possession.
New York remains the worst puck possession team in the playoffs but the Canadiens were not able to exploit that weakness because they are not a “cycle” team. The Canadiens do not have the big bodies going into the corners and out-battling the opposition for the puck. They are more of a finesse team. While the Rangers defense is better this year with the additions of Brendan Smith and Brady Skjei, the analytics say that they’re just very slightly better than a year ago. The Senators just need to watch film of the Rags in last year’s playoffs and they’ll have the blueprint to bury them.
The Senators raw Corsi was better than New York’s plus they were better in the final 25 games of the regular season as well as in the first round of the playoffs. What’s significant about that is Ottawa played a monster possession team in Boston in the first round and won the possession battle. Winning the possession battle against New York absolutely figures to be easier.
As far as talent up front, the Sens can match the Rags line for line and then some. The Ryan Dzingel, Kyle Turris, Alexandre Burrows line is big, tough and dangerous. The Clarke MacArthur, Derick Brassard, Bobby Ryan line is big, tough, dangerous and quick. MacArthur returning and having an impact not only gives the Sens a massive boost, it’s also one more problem that the Rags have to deal with. The Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone line is creative, quick, extremely talented and so damn dangerous. That third line might be the most underrated threesome in the game. Finally, there is the fourth line of Viktor Stalberg, Zack Smith and Tommy Wingels or Tom Pyatt. Both Stalberg and Smith are top nine forwards on 95% of the teams in this league but on Ottawa they are fourth line players and we haven’t even mentioned the best player in the series yet. Ottawa has Erik Karlsson and New York doesn’t. Ottawa has the best skater in this series, and sometimes that can make all the difference. Alex Novet of Hockey Graphs has a great article on why hockey is a “strong link” game, making Karlsson more important than this market realizes.
Speaking of the market, we have to question once again why the Senators are a dog again. They have home ice advantage, they have the best player in the series, they almost swept the Bruins and they have zero disadvantages in this series. That brings us back to value where the market has this series wrongly priced. Ottawa continues to be the most disrespected team in the market and it’s because they are Canada’s “small market” team that few watched during the regular season while the Rangers are in the biggest market on the continent. If all things bounce equally, Ottawa should have an easier time disposing of the Rags than they did disposing of the Bruins.
Brandon Shively
Dodgers at Giants
Pick: Under
The Dodgers offense has been scuffling of late. They really have never gotten it going the way they should all year. It shouldn't be easy to get it going against Johnny Cueto. Cueto has been at his best early in the season during his career, and he loves this ballpark.
Alex Wood is a pretty good lefty for the Dodgers, and this Giants lineup is a mess right now. They have a bunch of guys banged up, and there are guys playing in the bigs who have no business being here. The Dodgers bullpen is one of the best in the majors, so when Alex Wood is done, the under should be in good hands.
The under is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between these two in San Francisco. Look for another low scoring game here.
Scott Spreitzer
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
Cincinnati just can't contain the Brewers, who have won five of six meetings this season and have scored 20 runs the last two games. The incredible Eric Thames hit his 11th homer last night, which is a franchise record for April, and eight of his home runs have been against the Reds. Rookie Davis has allowed four runs and issued six walks in seven innings of work, but he's running into a buzz saw with the hot-hitting Brewers. Wily Peralta comes off a loss to St. Louis after winning his first three starts. He gave up two runs and three hits in six innings against Cincy on April 16 and he had a 3.00 ERA against the Reds in 18 innings in 2016. The Reds have lost six of their last seven games and have allowed 43 runs their last five games. More of the same.
Jim Feist
Nashville at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis
Nashville has a losing road record for the season and opens this series on the road. Nashville finished as the eighth seed in the West. The Predators are 1-6 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. St. Louis is home and caught fire ever since Yeo replaced Ken Hitchcock behind the bench. Paul Stastny returned from a month-long injury absence and the late-season addition of Vladimir Sobotka from the Kontinental Hockey League bolsters the team's balance. The Blues are 68-29 in their last 97 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The home team is 5-1 when these teams meet and the Predators are 8-18 in the last 26 meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Seattle vs. Detroit
Pick: Seattle
Edges - Mariners: Paxton 1.78 ERA and 0.87 WHIP this season with 29 K’s and 5 BB’s; and 1.80 ERA with 0.80 WHIP, along with 13 K’s and 1 BB this spring… Tigers: Norris 6.43 ERA and 1.67 WHIP this spring. With Norris in wobbly current form with 11K’s and 9 BB’s this season, we’ll back the better arm tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Seattle.
MIKE LUNDIN
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8
The Toronto Blue Jays won last night's matchup 6-5, and I think we'll see plenty of action over the plate again tonight.
The Cardinals' Carlos Martinez (0-3, 4.76 ERA) opened the season with 7 1/3 scoreless innings against the Cubs, but he's been roughed up in each of his last three starts since. He was knocked around for five runs on seven hits with a pair of home runs in five innings of a 7-5 loss at Milwaukee his last time out.
The Blue Jays hand the ball to Mat Latos (0-0, 7.20 ERA) who conceded four runs on six hits and three walks in five innings at LAA on April 21 in his lone start so far this season. He's posted a 5.76 ERA in 13 career meetings with St. Louis.
Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings at Busch Stadium.
RAY MONOHAN
Reds vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9½
The number five and six offense in the Major Leagues square off on Wednesday afternoon in Milwaukee. Eric Thames has been on fire for the Brewers having already hit ten home runs this season. Seven of those ten have come against this Reds team. It isn't really a marquee pitching match up either. On the mound for the Reds is Wily Peralta who in his last start gave up six runs in four innings pitched.
For the Reds is Rookie Davis who in seven innings of work has given up five runs so far. Some trends to note. Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 overall. Over is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 overall. Over is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Milwaukee.This is going to be a shootout.
ANDREW GOLD
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -131
The Brewers are worth a look here at this price against the slumping Reds. Cincy has lost 6 of their last 7 and with Davis taking the mound with an ERA over 6, there is no way I would want to back him.
Peralta has improved a lot this season with a 3-1 record. The Brewers have also owned the Reds so far this season with a 5-1 record. Peralta has fared well against the Reds for his career with a 3.10 ERA.
DUSTIN HAWKINS
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Giants +108
Play against a road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA Dodgers) - after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a one run loss. (54-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%).LA Dodgers are 20-26 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SONNY GOLDMAN
Hawks vs. Wizards
Play: Hawks +6
The Wizards still don’t really know how to handle prosperity. Wizards Coach Scott Brooks said before Game 4. “We haven’t been to the line enough.” Brooks highlighted the free throw disparity between the teams. Through three games, Atlanta had attempted 109 free throws compared to Washington’s 70. The Hawks simply don’t have the personnel to keep John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter Jr. in check. But the Hawks pose a threat inside with the frontcourt combo of Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard, and if Atlanta should win, it will have more to do with how that pair dominates the paint than whether the Hawks stop the Wizards’ trio.
JIMMY BOYD
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Yankees +107
I like the value here with the Yankees as a dog in the series opener against rival Boston. I actually had this as a premium play before yesterday's game was postponed due to rain. New York leads all of baseball with a +30 run differential and I just don't feel they are getting the respect they deserve. On top of that, the Red Sox are sending out last year's Cy Young winner Rick Porcello. Even though Porcello hasn't pitched well early, he's still getting a lot of public love. I think last year was more of a fluke than anything and I look for him to have an up and down season. On flip side of this, the Yankees are sending out Luis Severino, who has pitched better than his ERA would suggest. Severino has a 4.05 ERA in 3 starts, but a mere 0.800 WHIP. He's also got an impressive 21 strikeouts in his last 15 innings of work.