HANDICAPPERS HUB
Twins vs. Rangers
Play: Twins +138
What a price here for the road Twins with Santiago on the hill who is off to a great start for Minnesota with a 2.19 ERA against a familiar foe Cole Hamels. Hamels is just 1-1 with a 6.92 ERA lifetime against the Twins and I look for Minnesota to continue its success against Hamels and ride Santiago to a huge road win.
SPORTS WAGERS
Nashville +100 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. Here’s what Scott Burnside (ESPN Senior Hockey Writer) wrote about the Blues after their first round victory over Minnesota:
“The Blues were a machine while dismantling the favored Minnesota Wild in five games, and they get center Paul Stastny back for Round 2”.
That’s actually funny. A machine? Dismantling? The dictionary defines dismantling as: to take apart so that it is in separate pieces. :to destroy (something) in an orderly way.
Once again, results have more emphasis on the market than performance. We have to question whether Scott Burnside even watched one period of that series because if he had, he could not have used the words machine and dismantled. The only thing that the Blues dismantled was the luck meter that was heavily on their side. In the five games against Minnesota, St. Louis was the second best team on the ice in all five games. The Blue Notes were under siege the entire series and the only thing that bailed them out was puck luck. In the eight first-round series, no team was dominated more than the Blues. Jake Allen was tremendous and while he stole every game and can do the same thing here, we’re not interested in spotting a price with a team that is going to need more luck to win. St. Louis will very likely be the second best team on the ice again in every period of every game.
Nashville limited Chicago to three goals in four games. They dominated a team that every expert said could not be dominated. The Preds defense which includes P.K. Subban, offensive catalyst Roman Josi, the emerging Ryan Ellis, big-bodied Mattias Ekholm and steady veterans Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber, were a machine against Chicago. That’s a MACHINE. The Preds kept the Blackhawks on the outside all series long and figure to have even more success against the Blues weaker offense. While anything can happen here, we have to stick to playing value and one thing we know for sure is that Nashville is the superior team and beating Chicago gives them a ton of confidence going into this series. By contrast and despite winning, every player on that Blues’ bench knows they were badly outplayed in round one and that can’t be a very good feeling at all. We also know that the value is on this superior dog.
Note: We're going to wait on this one until later in the day when the line settles. There is a bunch of money coming in on the dog and that concerns us, especially since Sportsinteraction has the Preds favored. We may lay off this game if money continues to pour in on the Preds but we'll update it either way around dinner time. We may also sit it out, hope for St. Louis to win and then come back with an updated series wager on the Preds.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +118 over MILWAUKEE
Rookie Davis (RHP) was drafted by the New York Yankees in the 14th round of the 2011 MLB Draft. He spent 2012-2015 in New York’s farm system ascending as high as Double A. Davis’ 2015 was viewed as a breakout for the big right-hander. In 19 starts for High-A Tampa, he went 6-6 with a 3.70 ERA. Davis struck out 9.71 batters per nine during that stretch. By the end of 2015, he was in Double A. Prior to the 2016 season, the Yankees shipped Davis to Cincinnati (along with Caleb Cotham, Eric Jagielo and Tony Renda) for Aroldis Chapman. Davis spent most of last season at Double A, but he did get the call to Triple A in August. He threw 125 innings with a 3.82 ERA between both levels, but his strikeout totals fell off (5.5 K’s/9). Some of that could be attributed to a groin injury. Davis’ five starts in Triple A were particularly underwhelming. He surrendered at least four earned runs in three of those starts.
The first thing that jumps out about Davis is his size. He’s listed at 6’5, 255, and can be an imposing presence on the mound. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90s, and this past spring he was clocked hitting 96 mph. The velocity comes easy out of his hand, and he commands the pitch well. Davis employs a solid 12-5 curveball that can miss bats. Davis also uses a changeup, but that pitch has been described as “below average.” It was clear to Davis that something was going to have to change in his repertoire if he wanted to reach the majors so Davis incorporated a slider into his pitch mix. He debuted the offering on March 1, and he’s hopeful it might be the missing piece to his game. He did strikeout 17 batters in 15.2 innings in the spring. He’s looked hittable in his two starts at this level so far but he’s also looked very good. Davis will learn as he goes, thus he’ll likely be hit and miss all year but we’re willing to gamble with him here because the Crew are putting up unsustainable numbers that will correct. Furthermore, Wily Peralta (RHP) is almost always a good fade.
Peralta garnered some attention after his strong debut (0 ER, 5/1 K/BB in 5 innings). However, he didn't miss many bats in that game (8% swing and miss rate), nor did he pound the strike zone (38% ball%). Those are two indications that Peralta isn't a transformed pitcher and it’s getting worse. His swing and miss rate is now down to 6%. He has a BB/K split of 9/13 in 21 innings. His xERA is 5.77 and while he throws hard (96 MPH), he has little to no movement on his stuff. Backing Wily “Fastball Down the Middle” Peralta is not likely to work out well.
Kansas City +123 over CHICAGO
After 10 starts in 2016, Nate Karns (RHP) was 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA for the Mariners. But after a rough June, he lost his rotation spot and then a back strain in late July shelved him for the rest of the season. After being traded to the Royals, Karns impressed in spring training, winning a rotation spot heading into the season but he hasn’t been able to find that same magic in the early going. With a 6.53 ERA after three starts, it means better prices. Don’t pay much heed to Karns’ post-May performance, as it's a 37 innings small sample. His 7.60 ERA over that span featured an unlucky 55% strand rate and unlucky 38% hit rate. His first three starts this year is much of the same. With a high swing and miss rate, he can be counted on for a high strikeout rate and whenever a pitcher can strike out guys, he has a chance to do well. Walks are really the only issue here and if Karns cleans that up, he’ll be a rock in that Royals rotation.
In the midst of a Mark Buehrle-esque run as the South Side's proficient, easily-projected lefty, Jose Quintana (LHP) continues to throw strikes with just enough swing-and-miss stuff with little regard to batters' handedness or batted ball outcomes. Just like we didn't spot a tag when Buehrle pitched, we’re not interested in spotting one with Quintana either. He’s surrendered 24 hits in 23 frames with 12 walks. That’s a lot of traffic. He’s also been tagged for five jacks in those 23 frames. Furthermore, current Royals have a combined 390 AB’s against Quintana so they know him well. The Royals are hitting .174 against southpaws, which is a number in line for a correction to the good. Nice overlay here.
Oakland +126 over L.A. ANGELS
After a rough April last year, a newfound reliance on his split-finger saved Matt Shoemaker’s (RHP) season. From May 21 on, Shoemaker posted a 2.83 ERA in 130 innings over 20 games started. Skills, particularly his K-rate, tailed off a bit after June, but his first-pitch strike rate speaks to his resilience of control, and his swing and miss rate raises hopes that his K-rate could rebound as well. However, a September skull fracture on a come-backer added uncertainty heading into the year. After two starts this year, Shoemaker’s ERA was 7.31. After four starts, it is 4.98. He has been taken yard in every start and has now surrendered six bombs in four starts covering 21 innings. He’s also walked nine batters. Shoemaker’s lone home start was his worst of the season and he’ll be back at home for this one.
Sean Manaea (LHP) gave up four earned runs in six innings in his first start of the year and recorded only four strikeouts. Over his next three starts against Houston, Seattle and Texas, Manaea struck out 22 batters over 16 innings. He has a 15% swing and miss rate and leads the majors with a 65% groundball rate among pitchers with three or more starts. There’s lots to like about Manaea and there is a lot to like about taking back a tag with him too.
Washington -1½ +175 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:
Year to date:
4-5 +3.98 units
Tampa Bay +129 over BALTIMORE
Alex Cobb (RHP) has faced the Yankees twice and Boston and Houston once each. His ERA is 4.88 after four starts and because of that, we get him at an inflated priced today. Cobb underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015. Before the missed time, Cobb was trending in a positive direction. His strong swing and miss rate supported his decent K-rate, indicating potential. This season after four starts against some tough lineups, Cobb generated swings on 36% of pitches outside of the strike zone compared to the league average of 31%. Cobb also does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground. Don’t assign a lot of relevance to Cobb’s four early starts because he joined the party late last year (in September), which was his first action in over a year. Cobb has shook off the rust and is ready to take that next step. With a BB/K split of 4/18 over 24 frames, a 52% groundball rate and an xERA that is at 3.98 but decreasing every game, Alex Cobb has great profit potential in that arm of his.
It's also been a long road back for Dylan Bundy (RHP). Once one of the premier prospects in the game, Bundy's arm/shoulder issues forced him out of the majors for the better part of three seasons. He returned in 2016 and spun 109 innings of 4.02 ERA ball, which included a move to the rotation for the entire second half. Still just 24, there are some encouraging signs, but he's not there yet. Bundy was able to miss bats with ease, as his 2H swing and miss rate held up well in a starting role. However, his low groundball rate tells us hitters are able to elevate off of him, which leads to considerable HR risk at Camden Yards (+16%/6% LHB/RHB HR). The weather is expected to be warmer tonight (65°) so the ball figures to carry better and that’s the risk here. Dylan Bundy has great potential for sure but his 32%/29%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate makes him far too big a risk at this park when spotting a price.
N.Y. Yankees +113 over BOSTON
Rick Porcello (RHP) is Exhibit A on how pitchers are at whims of randomness, as his xERA has been flat for three years now. Porcello took pinpoint control to a new level last year with first-pitch strike rate support. That's the good news. The bad news is that his groundballs continued to turn into fly-balls and his swing and miss rate suggests his middling K-rate is here to stay. If you bet on Porcello, you are paying for a repeat of last year and that is not going to happen. Rick Porcello is nothing more than a reliable mid-rotation starter that is priced like an ace.
Few pitchers have been better than Luis Severino (RHP) in the early going. Severino has a BB/K split of 2/27 in 20 innings. That’s elite control with an elite strikeout rate. He has an elite batted ball profile of 50% groundballs, 17% line-drives and 33% fly-balls. His groundball rate in his last start was 65%. Severino’s 4.05 ERA is the result of bad luck. He comes in with a 2.22 xERA and a 0.80 WHIP and if he and the Yanks lose here so be it. However, when Severino, the Yankees and that #1 ranked bullpen is taking back a tag, it must be played and that applies here.
Will Rogers
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Angels
The set-up: The Angels salvaged a split of their four game series against Toronto with a 2-1 win on Monday. They then opened this three-games series with the A's with a second straight 2-1 victory. After nine scoreless innings last night, each team led off its half of the 10th with a home run but LA won on a walk-off single in the bottom of the 11th. Oakland's five-game winning streak was snapped in an 11-1 home loss to Seattle on Sunday and now for teh second straight game, the team's offense has produced just one run. The two teams play the middle game of this series tonight with Oakland at 10-10 and LA at 10-12.
The pitching matchup: Sean Manaea (1-1 & 4.43 ERA) gets the nod for the A's and Matt Shoemaker (0-1 & 4.98 ERA) will get the ball for the Angels. Manaea picked up his first win of 2017 in his last outing, a 3-1 Friday win over Seattle in which hse pitched six innings, allowing one run on five hits. He escaped with a no-decision against Los Angeles in his season debut back on April 4, after surrendering four runs and five hits in six innings. He's 0-1 with a 4.34 ERA in three starts against the Angels (A's are 0-3). Shoemaker has just two runs in three of his four starts this season but has yet to record a win. One of those two-run outings came opposite Manaea earlier this month, when he allowed four hits and walked three in a no-decision at Oakland. Shoemaker owns a 4-2 record and 3.51 ERA in 10 career starts against the Athletics (Angels are 7-3).
The pick: Shoemaker has pitched well enough to have a win or two so far in 2017 and is overdue for some good fortune. He's done well against the A's in his short career (see above) and I say he gets his first win of 2017, right here.
Wunderdog
Nashville @ St. Louis
Pick: Nashville +102
Nashville and St. Louis are evenly matched, finishing 3-4 in the Central Division with the Blues at +17 in goals for the season, the Predators +16. Nashville has excellent balance at #11 in goals scored, #15 in goals allowed and penalty killing, and are coming off a 4-0 blitz of the favored Chicago Blackhawks. They outscored Chicago 13-3. The offense has a dynamic forward line of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson, while newcomer P.K. Subban has strengthened the offense and the defense. Goalie Pekka Rinne allowed just three goals on 126 shots for a .976 save percentage against the speedy Blackhawks. The Predators are hot at the right time, at 19-7 against the Western Conference. The Predators edged the Blues 3-2 during the season, so grab the dog in Game 1. B
Chip Chirimbes
Nationals at Rockies
Play: Rockies -108
You can expect more offense tonight as these two clubs combined for 27 runs in Tuesday's slugfest as the Nationals won for the seventh time in eight tries on their current road trip. Colorado has won four of their last five scoring 46 runs in the process as they are tied for the most wins in baseball and Washington with 14. The Rockies will start Tyler Chatwood (2-2, 4.10 ERA) who has allowed just 23 hits in over 26 innings of work while the Nats will send Tanner Roark (2-0, 3.65) who has enjoyed receiving 6.5 runs support per start. This time he gets caught.
Dave Price
Atlanta at New York
Play: Atlanta +183
I like the price we are getting with the Atlanta Braves today as underdogs considering they have their ace on the mound tonight. Julio Teheran is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA in 4 starts this year, including 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 road starts, pitching 13 shutout innings away from home. Teheran is 7-3 with a 1.89 ERA in 15 lifetime starts vs. New York as well. Noah Syndergaard is a stud, but surprisingly he's never beaten the Braves. Syndergaard is 0-1 with a 3.92 ERA in 4 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta. The Braves are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings in New York.
Tony Stoffo
Athletics vs. Angels
Play: Angels -136
Oakland has sputtered producing one run in back last two loses after having won previous five. Sean Manaea, with a 1-1 record and a 4.43 ERA will take to the hill. The Athletics are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss and 3-9 in Manaea's last 12 road starts.
Los Angeles will send out Matt Shoemaker who owns a 4-2 record and 3.49 ERA in 10 career starts and one relief appearance against the Athletics. The Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 5-0 in Shoemakers last 5 home starts.
Mark Franco
Edmonton at Anaheim
Play: Anaheim -127
After making short work of one Alberta representative, the Pacific Division champion Anaheim Ducks would love to take the first step in repeating the feat against the other on Wednesday as they begin their second-round series against the visiting Edmonton Oilers. Anaheim is riding an 18-game point streak (15-0-3) and collected a point in four of five encounters (2-1-2) with Edmonton.
Although Anaheim's defense received a jolt from the offensive contributions of rookie Shea Theodore (two goals, three assists) in the first round, the back line is expected to be strengthened all the more by the potential returns of All-Star Cam Fowler and top-four Sami Vatanen.
Oilers are 17-40 in their last 57 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Ducks are 15-2 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.
Black Widow
Chicago at Pittsburgh
Play: Chicago -153
Bets against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (Pittsburgh) with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game, with a cold starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.000 or higher over his last 3 starts are 48-9 (84.2%, +34.6 units) over the last five seasons. We'll gladly back Jon Lester (2.66 ERA) over Tyler Glasnow (7.94 ERA) tonight.
Jack Jones
Houston at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -105
The Cleveland Indians have lost two straight and will be motivated to get back in the win column tonight. I think they'll do just that behind Trevor Bauer, who is coming off his best start of the season in which he allowed two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings with 7 strikeouts in a 6-2 win at Minnesota.
What stood out to me most about this game is that Bauer has never lost to the Astros. Indeed, he's a perfect 5-0 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in five career starts against them. Look for him to improve to 6-0 tonight.
The markets are high on Lance McCullers, but he's not nearly as effective on the road. He is 3-8 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in 17 career road starts. McCulleers gave up five runs and two homers in 4 1/3 innings at Oakland in his lone road start this season.
The Astros are 4-12 in McCuller's last 16 road starts. The Indians are 7-3 in Bauer's last 10 home starts. Cleveland is 36-17 in its last 53 games vs. a right-handed starters, including 11-4 in its last 15 home games vs. righties.
Mike Menase
Royals vs. White Sox
Play: Under 8
This play may seem 'unlikely' given the fact that these two teams have combined for 28 runs in their previous two games. The White Sox dominated those affairs and the score became inflated once the affair was already decided. The White Sox dominated because the Royals were starting left-handed pitchers, against whom the White Sox are producing a .815 ops. Today, we have a different kind of match-up.
The White Sox have an ops of just .600 against right-handed pitchers, .507 against right-handed starters. They did rough up the last right-hander that they faced, Salazar, in a 6-2 win over the Indians that still managed to go under the original total of 8.5. But even in that affair, Salazar's FIP was only 1.74, meaning that he actually pitched a high-quality game, but just got unlucky in terms of the largely spontaneous direction that a pitched ball takes when it makes contact with the opponent's bat. In the previous two games vs Cleveland, led by right-handers Carrasco and then Kluber respectively, the White Sox managed zero runs. I expect from them today a similarly low-scoring output.
Nathan Karns is pitching for the Royals today. His ERA is a not-too-glimmering 6.35 so far on the season. He did, however, enjoy one very good outing, which was against the Angels, in which he gave up just one ER in six innings. This outing is telling because the Angels really struggle against power pitching. Karns is most effective against lineups that struggle with a pitcher's power stuff. Karns has generally been relying more on his velocity. Last year, he threw his very hard knuckle curve at a career-high 36% time and his firm change at a career-high 23% of the time. His fastball averages at 93 mph. I expect Karns to have success with his power stuff today against a White Sox lineup that is managing a mere .470 ops against power pitchers. Karns has been doing a great job this season of producing ground balls, particularly with his curve. Against ground ball pitchers the White Sox are producing a mere .651 ops. I expect Karns to have a great outing today. In a closer game, the Royals can also rely on Soria and Alexander to pitch effectively out of the bullpen. I expect sparse production from the White Sox today.
Quintana is pitching for the White Sox today. The Royals' career batting numbers against him are inflated because of a horrific outing that Quintana put forth in Kansas City last September. But his other three outings against them last season display much more promise: in Kansas City he gave up one ER in 7.1 innings, in Chicago he gave up three ER in 8 innings and in Chicago he gave up four ER in 6.1 innings. The last outing was unlucky as his fip was actually a mere 1.57. Quintana is slowly settling into this season. He gave up three in six in his last outing vs Cleveland. He gave up two in 6.1 innings vs Minnesota before, and gave up six in 5.1 innings vs Detroit, in the home opener that was postponed, and five of those runs were in the second inning. Quintana's current ERA, as little as that of Karns, should be substantially alarming. The Royals have not been hitting much, especially on the road, where their ops is a paltry .560 compared to .626 at home. The Royals also really struggle against southpaws, managing a mere .505 ops against them compared to .612 vs right-handed pitchers. Quintana is at his best at home, where his ERA was 2.77 last year, compared to 3.58 on the road. I expect Quintana to put out anther quality performance today, and behind him he has one of baseball's best bullpens, measured by ERA.
Runs should be sparse today, as both starting pitchers are in a good spot to enjoy a high-quality outing, and both bullpens have reliable relievers who should keep this game low-scoring. The public expects another shoot-out, but decisive match-up considerations say otherwise.
Brandon Lee
Seattle vs. Detroit
Play: Seattle -138
I'll take my chances with Seattle here, as the books are making it pretty clear who think has the edge with the Mariners a pretty big road favorite after losing to the Tigers by 10 runs yesterday. It all comes down to the respect they have for Mariners starter James Paxton, who is primed for a big bounce back start after a rough outing last time out at Oakland. Even with the poor showing against the A's, Paxton owns a 1.78 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 4 starts. While Detroit is red-hot at the plate, they are only scoring 3.7 runs/game and hitting .207 as a team against left-handed starters this season. It's also worth noting that Seattle is swinging the bats well, having scored 20 runs in their last 2 games and will be facing Daniel Norris, who has an ugly 1.529 WHIP in 3 starts (9 walks to just 11 strikeouts in 17 innings).
John Martin
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -1½
The Toronto Blue Jays are just 6-14 this season. They are playing without two of their best hitters AND defenders in Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki right now. Mat Latos has been awful over the past couple seasons. He went posted a 4.95 ERA in 2015 and a 4.89 ERA in 2016, and he's off to a 7.20 ERA in 2017. Carlos Martinez is the ace of the Cardinals' staff. He went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA last season. Latos is 5-6 with a 5.76 ERA in 13 starts against the Cardinals. Expect St. Louis to win by multiple runs tonight.
Alex Smart
Reds vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9½
The Brewers starting hurler,Wily Peralta (3-1, 4.71 ERA) allowed six runs and nine hits in four innings and failed to register a single strikeout, last time out . The Brwers D, and pitching has been weak allowing 5 runs or more in 5 of their L/7, and could easily get tagged again today. Meanwhile, the Reds , Davis (0-0, 6.43 ERA) looks to be an extension of how bad his teams pitching has been so far this season, as is evident by ,The Reds dropping six of their last seven while allowing five or more runs in each of the last five trips to the diamond for a total of 43 rus. (ouch). Everything points to this game going over the total.
Milwaukee is 12-4 OVER against division opponents this season.MILWAUKEE is 10-2 OVER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season and is 15-4 OVER in home games vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last few seasons.CINCINNATI is 13-2 OVER revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 8 or more runs and is 30-9 OVER (+21.1 Units) with triple revenge - 3 straight losses against opponent.
PERALTA is 12-2 OVER L/14 in home games in the first half of the season. Reds Manager, PRICE is 17-4 OVER L/21 off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival. Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 overall.Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 8-1 in Brewers last 9 overall.Over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee.