Scott Rickenbach
Edmonton at Anaheim
Play: Edmonton +119
Layoffs can be tough on a hockey team and we saw that this season with the mandatory bye week causing all sorts of issues when teams came back from the bye and got clobbered. Certainly playoff time is not exactly the same situation as the way the new bye week worked in regular season action but, the point is, Anaheim may not be as sharp as they would like to be tonight as they have not played since last Wednesday! After a full week off, even though the Ducks were able to get a little healthier, the trouble is that they could be a little "off" in terms of their timing tonight after sweeping the Flames in Week 1. The Oilers were ultra impressive in the first round too as they got by the Sharks. The benefit for Edmonton as they have had some time off but certainly not too much as they enter this game off of 3 days of rest. That said, don't be surprised if the Oilers prove to be the sharper team tonight. Edmonton was 4-2 when playing with 3 or more days of rest this season and 19-8 when off of a win by a multiple-goal margin. The Ducks went just 10-14 this season when off of a win by 2 goals or more and, again, the full week off is likely to prove to be too much. Grab the underdog value here.
Andrew Lange
San Diego at Arizona
Play: Under 10
San Diego's Trevor Cahill is seemingly always in a state of "reinvention." Last year, he found his niche tossing out of the bullpen for the Cubs where he flashed a 2.74 ERA. This season, he's starting for the Padres and thus far doing a pretty good job. Like some of the highest priced pitchers in the game, Cahill is doing two things extremely well: miss bats and gardner ground balls. In three starts, he's posted 43 swinging strikes, 21 strikeouts and 28 ground balls. He's reportedly incorporated a new cutter/slider type pitch that compliments his main pitch, a sinker. Giving Cahill's history, an injury and/or regression is likely on the horizon but for the time being, he appears to be undervalued.
With Shelby Miller on the shelf, Arizona will turn to fringe arm Zack Godley. Godley doesn't have much of a track record but looked sharp in spring training and prior to his call-up from Triple-A Reno.
“There were some very good candidates that were throwing the ball in Reno,” Lovullo said. “But we trust and believe in their eyes, and that was their recommendation. He threw the ball very well at the tail end of spring training, and he left a very positive impression on myself and the rest of the staff.”
He walks into a favorable situation as San Diego's offense ranks near the bottom of the National League. And getting out of Petco hasn't yielded better results. In 13 road games, the Padres are averaging 3.2 runs per game and some dismal splits: .218/.278/.374/.652. In the first two games of this series, San Diego posted 28 strikeouts and only three walks. They plated four runs against fringe reliever Silvino Bracho who has since been sent down. Outside of that, Arizona's staff held San Diego to five runs in 17.2 innings.
Despite both starters not having much in the way of pedigree, current form and situation suggest there's some value on playing this game under the total.
Bob Balfe
Twins/Rangers Under 9
Texas is one of the worst teams in baseball at one base percentage against left handed pitching. If you can’t get on base you can’t score runs. I think the Rangers will be held in check on the scoreboard today and of course Cole Hamels is always delivers a solid performance on the mound. Look for this to be a low scoring game.
Stephen Nover
Giants +105
The Giants are banged-up, but the pitching matchup clearly is their favor making them worthy of being a home 'dog.
Dodgers starter Alex Wood is a borderline rotation starter. He didn't look good in his last start giving up four runs and seven hits while failing to finish the fifth inning this past Friday at Arizona. Lifetime against the Giants, Wood is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA. LA is 0-5 in Wood's last five starts.
By contrast, Johnny Cueto is an elite pitcher. He has a career 2.74 ERA versus the Dodgers in 13 starts, including going 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA against them last season.
Cueto is on his normal four days rest. The Giants are 17-4 the past 21 times Cueto has pitched on four days rest.
Brad Wilton
There have been four games played between the Hawks and the Wizards and in three of the four, BOTH teams have been able to crack the triple-digit mark. The Over is 2-1-1 officially through the four played, with the pair in D.C. seeing one Over, and one Under.
Since the Wizards scored 98 and 101 in their losses in Atlanta, I would have to believe that shooting back in their own arena will see the jump shots go through the net a little more often than they did at the Philips Arena.
That being the case, Iean to the Over being the way to go on Wednesday in D.C.
The Over is 5-1-1 in Washington's last 7 conference quarterfinal games contested, and right now they are playing an Atlanta team that they allowed to gain confidence with 116 and 111 points tallied in their Games Three and Four victories on their home court.
Offense dictates play tonight. Hawks and Wizards Over the total.
1* ATLANTA-WASHINGTON OVER
Jack Brayman
My complimentary winner is on the streaking Detroit Tigers, who have won three in a row. And even with the winning, the oddsmakers are making the Seattle Mariners a favorite.
I like the home underdog here, as Detroit boasts one of the top offenses thus far, hitting .256, which ranks seventh in the league. Its 103 runs scored this season is fifth-best in the bigs.
And, the Tigers' .284 home batting average is fourth-best by teams in their own ballpark.
On the other hand, Seattle is hitting a paltry .225 on the highway.
Take the home pup.
5* TIGERS
INFO PLAYS
Bulls / Celtics Under 203
I'm taking the Celtics UNDER tonight. Here are some systems supporting our pick. Play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 when one of the teams is after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days. This system is 70-31 (69.3%) over the last 5 seasons.
CHASE DIAMOND
Philadelphia +105
This game has the 10-8 Miami and the 9-9 Phillies. Phillies have been playing good baseball lately winning 4 straight and will take on a Miami team first game back from a west coast swing. Velasquez has good stuff but has yet to put together a good start and I think tonight will be the night love the value of the line in this one. We will back the Phillies for a 15* winner tonight.
Power Sports
Atlanta vs. New York
Pick: Atlanta +1.5
In the interest of full disclosure, I was set to play Julio Teheran and Atlanta, but that game got rained out. Teheran gets a bit of a "bad break" as a result, now pitching opposite Noah Syndergaard rather than Robert Gsellman. Thus, the Mets are far bigger favorites on money line. But that creates a situation where the RL is now a heck of a lot more affordable.
Teheran, dating back to the start of last season, has been arguably the most hard-luck pitcher in all of baseball. His 10-20 TSR in '16 was nowhere near indicative of the way he pitched as he had a 3.25 ERA and 1.053 WHIP for what ended up being a 68-win ballclub. Eight of the times the team failed to win w/ him on the bump last year, the final margin was just one run. Run support was generally putrid. Sadly, Teheran's team start record is only 1-3 so far this season. But it's also true that he'd allowed just 2 ER (in three starts) prior to a rough outing last time out vs. Washington.
This will be the second matchup of Teheran and Syndergaard this season. The first was a classic pitcher's duel that saw neither starter allow a run over six respective innings of work. But the Braves' bullpen ended up costing the team the game in a misleading 6-0 loss. Syndergaard, like Teheran, had a strong first three outings before getting rocked his last time out. Despite a 10-0 KW rate vs. Philadelphia last Thursday, he was tagged for five runs. My plan is to stick w/ Teheran, whose poor luck is "due" to turn, through thick and thin. He and the Braves do no worse than a one-run loss here.
Bruce Marshall
Chicago at Boston
Pick: Under
Do not recall a series turning around so completely based upon the availability of one player who is normally not the most important component for his team. But minus Rajon Rondo for the past two games, and , apparently, for tonight's Game Five, Chicago has been lost offensively. The Bulls had to scramble just to get to 95 points in Game Four, and note the Celtics are "under" 18-10 their last 28 games and Bulls "under" 16-10 their last 26 (most of those with Rondo).