DAVE COKIN
PIRATES VS. ROCKIES
PLAY: ROCKIES +107
The Pirates are starting to rake, and Pittsburgh fans have to be thrilled at the breakout night enjoyed on Tuesday by Andrew McCutchen. There’s no question about which team is superior here, as the Bucs are likely playoff contenders yet again, while the Rockies will probably be lucky to win 70 games.
Nevertheless, I’ll be on the Rockies tonight. I liked what I saw from emerging righty Jonathan Gray in his first start of the season, even though he gave up a bunch of runs in his five innings of work. But Gray flashed some dominant stuff along the way, and I like his chances of getting me some good innings tonight, even against the potent Pirates.
Jon Niese is throwing more fastballs than in the past, and that is likely due to now working with pitching guru Ray Searage, who’s one of the best in the business. Searage builds on strengths and based on the mix of two and four-seamers Niese is featuring, it looks like the coach feels that’s the best way for Niese to attack the opposition. But the lefty has put up rather pedestrian numbers thus far, he’s in a ballpark that hasn’t exactly been a haven for him previously, and I would expect Colorado to have some success with the sticks tonight.
The Pittsburgh bullpen did well on Tuesday night, but that unit has been surprisingly porous so far this season, so what should look like a commanding edge over what Colorado has to offer isn’t that lopsided right now.
I made the Rockies -112 for this game, and they’re catching close to that as a home underdog. That’s not spectacular value. But when I can catch what I think is an edge and it also happens to be in direct opposition to what will be the public betting side, I don’t have a problem making the play. Put me down for a call on the Rockies to get this one.
Sleepyj
LA Clippers +3
The Clippers won't be winning the title this year, but they can win this game...One thing we like to use in handicapping is the star players (s) being out..How many times have we seen the line drop or increase because a stars out?...More than I care to remember, but often times the star player(s) being out increases the urgency of the remaining players on that team...This is a big game here for the Clippers...They get to come back home and silence all the critics of how they are now gong to lose to Portland..Sure the Paul and Griffen injures are season crushers, but it doesn't mean we can;t back the Clippers to make money here...Is the news of the two stars being out casing this line to be over-adjusted?....I'd say no for the the simple fact that these are two monster injuries...I believe the Clippers still have enough with the bench players to beat Portland in a 7 game series even without Paul and Griffen...Crawford will step up big time..He is a baller, but his defense is his down side...Clippers have Green, Rivers, Aldrich, Prigioni, Johnson and Pierce..Plenty of guys they can mix into the game..Doc Rivers will be just fine figuring this all out at home...Portland on the road struggles against bad competition often..Now you bring them into a hostile environment after all this news of stars being out...Clippers entire team will be at max effort here..Portland might just press a little too much...Call me crazy but I think the Clippers win outright...I'll grab the 3 just in case.
Chris Jordan
The New York Mets are rolling right now, and I think they're better than the Cincinnati Reds. So for the third night in a row, I'm riding the Mets to a run line win. This time, however, it's my free play, while I lace up my high-tops in the NBA, with the biggest release of my entire career!!!
It's amazed me how many people have forgotten the Mets are the defending National League champs. They did play in the World Series last season, and because everyone is talking about the Cubs and Nationals, it's been pure motivation for this team.
And yes, strong starting pitching has the Mets rolling, but make note they're going for their 11th straight win over the visiting Reds tonight. Tonight continues a nine-game homestand for the Mets (12-7), who are looking to improve on their 4-4 record in Queens.
Yesterday's 4-3 victory over these same Reds was New York's fifth straight and 10th in 12 games, while Cincinnati (9-12) just lost five of six. The Reds were outscored 33-1 in three losses to Chicago, no-hit by Jake Arrieta in last Thursday's series-opener and have now suffered through two disappointing losses in Queens.
With New York, the Reds have to face the league's fourth-best ERA (2.95). Making matters worse, the Reds are 1-7 away from home and have lost 15 of 17 against the Mets, including seven of eight in New York.
Take the Mets on the Run Line in this game.
2* METS -1.5
Ben Burns
Houston vs. Seattle
Play: Seattle -125
Given the way that both teams are currently playing and given the pitching matchup, I believe this line could easily be higher.
The Mariners check in as the much hotter team. Yesterday's 11-1 destruction brought the M's to 6-1 their last seven, while dropping the Astros to 1-7 their last eight.
While he did give up a couple of longballs, Iwakuma is off a solid outing at LA. He'd finish with just two runs allowed through eight complete innings. He's gone progressively deeper each time out, going five, six, then seven innings, prior to his eight-inning effort. He gives the M's a chance to win almost every time he takes the mound and his lone home start was of the "quality" variety.
McHugh hasn't been nearly as good, as he simply hasn't been able to get batters out. Last time out, he allowed 10 hits in just four innings. In his previous start, he allowed 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Overall, he's 1-3 with an ugly 7.56 ERA and 2.101 WHIP.
The last time that the M's saw McHugh they rocked him. In just three innings, they had nine hits (2 HR's) while tallying eight earned runs. Seattle won 8-1.
While the Astros average less than four runs per game vs. right-handed starters, the M's are putting up a respectable 4.8 r.p.g. vs. right-handers. Their bullpen has also been considerably better than Houston's bullpen. As I said, this price could easily be higher. Take a look at Seattle.
Chase Diamond
Oakland at Detroit
Play: Detroit -115
This game has the 11-10 Oakland at the 9-10 Detroit Tigers. This is one of those head turning games that make you wonder why the Tigers are favored. I usually fade pitchers live Verlander guys who are older and on their way out but this game just has trap written all over it. Tigers are in desperate need of a win tonight and Verlander really needs a good outing. Money is riding 50/50 on this game but the line seems to really be shifting people away from the Tigers. I will back Verlander and the Tigers here.
Rob Vinciletti
Braves vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -180
Boston Blasted the Braves 11-4 last night and now plays them at home. Home favorites in this range are 9-0 since 2004 off a -140 or higher road favored win scoring 10 or more runs vs an opponent off a home loss. The Braves are 2-12 vs right handers and 1-9 vs winning teams. The Braves are an unfathomable 0-25 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last 2 games. They have Norris and his 7.84 road era taking on Wright for Boston who has been stellar and has a 1.40 Era this season. Play on Boston.
Scott Spreitzer
Houston vs. Seattle
Play: Seattle -129
After spending several seasons mired at or near the bottom of MLB's standings, the Astros broke through last year in a dream season that many felt was a year or two away. Going into 2016, many thought Houston had a chance to dethrone the KC Royals as AL champs. In fact, the Westgate in Las Vegas opened Houston's win total at 88.5, the highest total in the American League at that particular joint. Things have not gone well for the Astros, both on the mound and at the plate. Houston's pen ranks 22nd in ERA and 21st in BAA. Astro starters and relievers rank 3rd-worst in ERA when opponents have runners in scoring position (RISP). But it doesn't stop with pitching. Houston's offense ranks dead last, 30th in MLB with a .185 team batting average with RISP. They're also near the bottom of the league in team batting average and OBP, overall. I expect more struggles tonight against Seattle hurler Hisashi Iwakuma, who has pitched well in his last 10 starts against Houston. Iwakuma has exhibited outstanding control in 43 starts at SAFECO heading into this season, sporting a 0.96 WHIP in more than 240 IP. The right-hander finished with 7 Ks and just 1 BB in his lone start at home this season, a six-inning effort against the Rangers. His counterpart tonight, Collin McHugh has been a disaster in three of his four starts this season. Take away one good home outing on April 11, and McHugh has been tagged for 14 earned runs & 26 base runners in his other three starts, spanning just 9 2/3 IP.
Marc Lawrence
Orioles vs. Rays
Play: Rays -118
Edges - Rays: Mike Moore 3-0 with 2.95 ERA and 0.98 home team starts this season; and 9-3 last twelve team starts during April. Orioles: Chris Tillman 0-3 career team starts in this park. With Moore in great KW form with 20 K’s and 3 BB’s, along with the home team 4-0 in Moore’s starts and the visiting team 0-4 in Tillman’s starts this season, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.
Aaron Toller
Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
Pick: Over 2
Champions league semifinal leg 1 from Spain. Tuesday we saw a pretty uneventful matchup but this one promises to be a good one for Wednesday. How power Bayern Munich take on the defensive Athletico Madrid squad. I like the over 2 goals as I see this one having plenty of scoring opportunities giving Bayern attack 1st method and style and look for Athletico to counter attack when they get the chance.
Red Dog Sports
Sarpsborg vs. Stabaek
Play: Sarpsborg +1100
Value play on Sarpsborg as they are big underdogs but have scored 4 goals in their last two matches. I hope to see them score quickly and play like they have recently.
Scott Rickenbach
Rockets vs. Warriors
Play: Rockets +9½
Stephen Curry is out for this game. When the Warriors star has been out this season Golden State has still managed to win the game most of the time but they have suffered a few losses without him and the wins have been by much shorter margins than they usually when by with him on the floor. Now I am certainly well aware of the fact that the Warriors blew out the Rockets in Game 4 in Houston after Curry got hurt just before the half. However, there was a bit of "shock value" there and the Warriors rallied while the Rockets basically fell apart after the surprise that Curry was out for the second half. Now that Houston has had extra time to recover from that plus has game planned for how to deal with a Curry-less Warriors team in Game 5, I expect this to be a very tight game. The Rockets are 29-13 ATS the past three seasons combined when playing with 2 days of rest between games and they are playing for their playoff lives in tonight's game. Houston may indeed fall short of the upset here but, even if that's the case, it should be a game decided by single digits.
Will Rogers
Rockets vs. Warriors
Play: Under 211½
The Golden State Warriors can close out this Western Conference Quarterfinals series against the Houston Rockets with another win Wednesday night. The Rockets have however already upset the Warriors once to earn a win in the series, and they held Golden State to just 96 points in Game 3. I expect to see a low scoring battle in this elimination game.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Steph Curry's Absence - The reigning MVP has struggled with an ankle for quite some time and will now sit for at least two weeks with a sprained MCL in his right knee sustained in Game 4. The Rockets must surely be extremely encouraged by his absence as the Warriors have averaged 10.2 fewer points in their five games without Curry this season.
2. Situational - The Warriors defeated the Rockets 121-94 in Game 4 of the series but are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. The under is 4-1 in the Warriors last five games when playing on two days rest.
3. X-Factor - The Rockets have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight road games.
Larry Ness
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
The White Sox went 41-56 (-$1,500) in Quintana's starts from 2013-15...
The sudden retirement of Adam LaRoche during spring training created a rift between Chicago White Sox players and management, including a threat by players to boycott a spring game. However, that was then and this is NOW! As MLB's opening month is nearing a close, the 15-6 White Sox own the AL's best record and are tied with their crosstown rivals (Cubs) for the most wins in MLB (Cubs are 15-5).
The White Sox have won five in a row, moving NINE games over .500 for the first time since late September 2012 after crushing Toronto 10-1 on Tuesday. Chris Sale pitched eight innings to win his fifth straight start (5-0, 1.66 ERA), as Chicago set season highs for runs and hits with 15. Jose Quintana (2-1, 1.82 ERA) will make his fifth start of 2016 and in seven career starts vs the Blue Jays, he's delivered a quality one each time.
However, despite a 1.88 ERA, Chicago is just 4-3 in those starts. Quintana has been a "poster child" for the hard-luck pitcher these last three seasons. He's made 33, 32 and 32 starts from 2013 through 2015 and despite solid ERAs of 3.51, 3.32 and 3.36, he's won just NINE games each season, His overall record is 27-28 and the White Sox are a woeful 41-56 (.423) in those starts, minus-$1,500 vs the moneyline!
Toronto will send Marco Estrada to the mound tonight, hoping to avoid the dreaded home sweep.Estrada had a solid first season with Toronto last year (came from Milwaukee), going 13-8 with a 3.13 ERA in 34 appearances, including 28 starts (team was 16-12, plus-$396). He made one start against Chicago in his first season with the Blue Jays last year, yielding three runs in seven innings on May 27 without factoring in the decision (Jays lost the game).
Estrada has made three starts in 2016 and while he allowed four ERs in an outing at Boston, he's allowed just one ER in his two other outings (12 IP and 17 Ks), giving him a 2.50 ERA after three starts. NO sweep here!
Power Sports
Chicago vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
On the heels of another dominant start from Chris Sale (won 10-1), the White Sox have raced out to the best record in the American League and have outscored their opponents by 25 runs in the process. Wednesday sees them going for a sweep North of the border, but I don't see it happening. Back the Jays in this spot.
I have to admit that Chicago has the "look" of a team set to make a major transformation this year. Their success (so far) has been predicated on their pitching staff, which is allowing a MLB-low 2.5 runs per game. Incredibly, last night saw Sale hold what was MLB's best offense a year ago to just one hit over seven innings. Sale can't pitch every day, however, and I see the Toronto bats having more success against lefty Jose Quintana. This lineup came into yday averaging a healthy 5.2 rpg at home.
No team wants to get swept at home and provided it's not some bottom-feeder (like an Atlanta or Milwaukee), they are more apt to bounce back off the kind of loss Toronto suffered loss Tuesday. Additionally, the Jays will be sending Marco Estrada to the bump. Estrada allowed just one run in five innings his last time out while striking out a season-high nine batters. The only other time he's gotten to start here at home this year saw him toss seven scoreless innings against Boston. I anticipate the Toronto offense bouncing back from its worst showing of the season and Estrada to take care of the rest.
Oskeim Sports
Houston at Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Seattle right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma is one of the most consistent pitchers you'll find in baseball, and he boasts elite command and control. In fact, the 35-year-old owns a career 1.07 WHIP as a starter and has the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.4% GB% in 2015). The veteran hurler posted a 3.54 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 3.27 xFIP and 3.36 SIERA last season, and there is nothing to suggest that similar results will be achieved in 2016.
Iwakuma is coming off his best start of the season, allowing two runs over eight innings in a 5-2 win over the Angels. He now faces a scuffling Houston team that is 3-13 (-12.4 units) at night and 0-5 (-5.8 units) versus division opponents this season. The Astros are also 16-39 in their last 55 road games, 1-5 in their last six games following a loss and 1-5 in their last six during game 3 of a series. Houston has also dropped four of its last five games in which Colin Mchugh was on the mound.
McHugh is off to a disappointing start to the 2016 campaign, going 1-3 with a 7.56 ERA and 2.01 WHIP. The right-hander also toes the rubber in poor form, yielding a combined nine earned runs and 20 hits in his last two starts (9.3 IP). And, the 28-year-old struggled the last two times he faced Seattle, allowing a combined 12 earned runs on 15 hits over ten innings of work. Another concerns for Houston has been its bullpen, which owns a 5.91 ERA on the road and a 4.24 ERA at night this season.
While McHugh is off to a slow start, he is in no way as bad as his surface statistics suggest. McHugh has been victimized by an unsustainable .455 BABIP and 59.5% LOB%, and actually has a 2.92 FIP and 4.38 SIERA. With that said, it's highly unlikely that McHugh will ever match his 2014 breakout campaign where he posted a 2.73 ERA and 3.11 FIP, together with a 9.14 K/9 rate. With Houston standing at 2-11 in its last thirteen games with umpire Mike Dimuro behind the plate, take the streaking Mariners.