Jim Feist
Astros at Mariners
Pick: Under
Safeco Park is big, great for pitchers, and the Astros are No. 14 in baseball in on base percentage, No. 17 in runs scored. Houston is 7-2 under the total when starter Collin McHugh is working on four days of rest. Seattle is No. 16 in baseball in runs scored, No. 23 in on base percentage. Starter Hisashi Iwakuma has only pitched one game at home this season and the last three years he has a 3.29 ERA at home. Seattle is on a 6-2 run under the total at home and on an 8-2-1 run under overall.
Wunderdog
Portland @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles +3.5
The Los Angeles Clippers are home underdogs in Game 5 due to the crippling injuries of Blake Griffin, who is out for the playoffs, and Chris Paul, who will miss about a month with a broken bone in his hand. Injuries aside, the Clippers have been two different teams in this series. They won two blowouts at home and then lost both games in Portland. The Clippers shot only 35.7 percent in Game 4 while the Trail Blazers made just 40.9 percent of their field goals. Jeff Green scored 17 points in a reserve role on Monday, and along with Austin Rivers, will probably fill in for the injured starters. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum were a combined 10-of-28 from the floor in Game 4 and it was Al-Farouq Aminu who was the leading scorer with 30 points. The Clippers have covered five home games in a row and are 4-1 ATS after a loss, and even without two starters they still own the edge in playoff experience.
David Essler
Colorado +105
This is as much of a fade of Niese as it is a play on Colorado. Niese at Coors Field has pitched 11 innings the last three years (easily sortable) and given up 20 hits and a .417 batting average against. One might think it's just one park, but he was hammered just the other night in Arizona (small park) and gave up to bombs in his only other road start - at Detroit, another reasonable hitters park. In fact, looking up and down the list that doesn't appear to be a new thing by any means. When someone like Mark Reynolds, a low-average hitter who K's a lot - has 8 hits in 15 at bats and two of them leaving the park, there's a problem. Many of the Rockies have seen him and fared well on more than one occasion. So am I a huge fan of Gray? Not really, but he is making his SECOND start so he ought to be far more comfortable than his first start against the Dodgers. He did give up a couple of long balls, but only two walks and struck out TEN in five innings. Of course the Pirates haven't seen him and the Rockies are tying to avoid losing three straight to Pittsburgh. The Rockies pen has been "better" lately and just looking at the last week, I'd give the bullpens here a wash. I don't see this game staying under but the early bettors do, and actually that's probably better for us if it does - because I don't see how the Rockies don't get plenty here, and either Gray just out duels Niese, who we are fading, or Colorado simply goes off, which I do see as a likely scenario.
Vegas Butcher
San Diego Padres +178
Both Cashner and Samardzija have started out the season as similar pitchers with an e-ERA (expected ERA) of 3.8 and 3.9 respectively. Cashner though has a higher K-rate (21% to 17%), while Samardzija has been a little ‘luckier’ with his actual ERA so far. Coming off a 117-pitch outing, I’d expect a decline in efficiency out of him here. In addition, this being a day-game, and with Posey playing in 5 straight (last 2 at catcher), I’m hoping he gets a day off. This should cause the odds to drop of course. In any case, my model has this one at +150 SD, but with an expected decline in Samardzija’s efficiency and potential rest-day for Posey, I’ll grab the value in this one.
GoodFella
Oakland TT Over 3.5
I would play this up to over 4 runs fwiw. Bet on line has 3.5 at -130 fwiw, so shop around for the best number you can get. These A's are hitting the ball well right now & they have had success vs Verlander. Of course Verlander is not what he once was, with a major drop off with his velocity. I do think these A's get to him eventually and then we get into that poor Tigers bullpen. IMO, there are just way too many ways that these A's plate at least 4 runs & I am on their Team Total going OVER this evening.
Greg Shaker
Seattle -127
Houston was projected to be a lot better than they have been and I suppose they will turn it around eventually. Hopefully for them before it's too late. But we have to play against them here. McHugh not performing and this Astros Pen is getting way too much work. Seattle has now won 6 of their last 7. Much better pitching splits here as well + Astros as usual hitting the Lefties, not so much the Righties. Easy choice here despite the larger than usual number to lay for us.
Teddy Davis
White Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -141
I really look for a strong performance as the Blue Jays will be motivated here to not get swept @ home. They were dominated yesterday by Chris Sale who is no doubt a terrific pitcher. Both of the pitchers in tonight's game are off to a good start, but I really like what Marco Estrada did in his only home start vs Boston going 7 innings and giving up 0 runs! The Blue Jays are 9-2 when Estrada starts game 3 of a series and are 8-0 last 8 games after losing the first two of a series. That shows how rare and hard it is to sweep this Blue Jay team.
Ray Monohan
Detroit Tigers +100
The Tigers and Athletics send their aces out on Wednesday and getting Justin Verlander at this price is worth the look. Justin Verlander has dominated the Athletics in his career. The RH has gone 9-6 with a 2.51 ERA in 16 starts. The 6 losses doesn't justify how good he's been against Oakland, as he's been on the wrong end of some tough losses.
Detroit has the offense to overcome Gray too. Miguel Cabrera had a pair of home runs in the series opener and with Cabrera and both Victor and JD Martinez in the middle of this order, this offense can explode on any night.
Some trends to consider. Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 Wednesday games. Tigers are 6-2 in Verlanders last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
At this price, Detroit is worth the look. Verlander can shut any offense down when he is on, which makes him valuable at this price.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays -141
The Toronto Blue Jays have lost the first two games of this series to the Chicago White Sox. It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight at home to avoid the 3-game sweep, especially after blowing a 5-1 lead in Game 1.
I like their chances of salvaging this series with a victory with Marco Estrada on the mound. He has gone 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts, including 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his lone home start. Estrada gave up 3 earned runs and 8 base runners over 7 innings in his lone career start against Chicago, which came last season.
Jose Quintana is 2-10 against the money line after giving up 2 earned runs or less in two straight outings over the last two seasons. Toronto is 23-6 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday over the last three seasons. The Blue Jays are a perfect 8-0 in their last eight games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
Brandon Lee
Yankees vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -128
Texas is worth a look here as a small home favorite in Wednesday's series finale against the Yankees. The Rangers won 10-1 last night and I look for the offense to stay hot against C.C. Sabathia, who comes in with a 5.28 ERA and 1.825 WHIP in 3 starts. Texas crushed Sabathia in the two games they faced him last year, scoring 11 runs on 16 hits in 7 1/3 innings. The Rangers will send out Martin Perez, who has a 4.50 ERA and 1.375 WHIP overall, but a strong 3.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP over his 2 home starts. Texas is 21-12 in their last 33 after scoring 8 or more runs.
Jimmy Boyd
Angels -125
Los Angeles is showing some decent value here as a small home favorite against the Royals on Wednesday. The Angels have taken each of the first two games of this series by 5 runs a piece. The offense has really come to life in those two wins, scoring 15 runs on 22 hits. They should be able to keep the bats going against the struggling Chris Young of the Royals.
Young is 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in his first 4 starts of 2016. He's especially struggled on the road, where he's 0-2 with an awful 10.38 ERA and 2.422 WHIP in 2 starts. The Angels should have a big advantage here on the mound, as they counter with Nick Tropeano, who has gotten off to a strong start. Tropeano has a 1.69 ERA in 3 starts, as he hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in a single outing this season.
Kansas City has lost 4 straight on the road and are 0-4 in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing record. Angels on the other hand are 5-2 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning record.
Mike Lundin
Marlins vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -173
Don Mattingly's return to Dodger Stadium has been a great one so far as he has led the Miami Marlins to victories in each of the first two of this four-game set. I like the Dodgers in Wednesday's matchup though as they send Scott Kazmir (1-1, 6.63) to the mound.
The 32 year old southpaw tossed six innings of one-hit ball in his season-premiere but has been roughed up for 14 runs through 13 innings in three starts since. He has however had good success through four career starts against Miami, going 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and Giancarlo Statnton is 0-for-3 with a strikeout in previous at bats against Kazmir.
The Fish hand the ball to another left-hander in Justin Nicolino (2015: 5-4, 4.01 ERA) who was recalled to start in his 2016 debut Wednesday. Nicolino posted a 4.01 ERA in 12 starts in his 2015 rookie season and he allowed five runs in four innings of a 7-1 loss to the Dodgers last year.
Miami is 4-10 in its last 14 road games vs. a left-handed starter while Los Angeles is 7-2 in its last nine. Marlins are 1-6 in their last seven games with Todd Tichenor behind home plate while Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine.
ASA
Yankees vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -128
CC Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees and the aging veteran has seen his better days. Coming into this year the southpaw had been hit at a clip of .272, .301, .and .285 the past three seasons. It should come as no surprise that he's getting hit at a .308 clip this season. Making matters worse he's been laboring through his starts and has been unable to complete the 5th inning in his past two starts. Sabathia now faces a tough Rangers lineup in a hitter-friendly park and this one could ugly for him early. That's bad news for Yankees fans because their own lineup is unlikely to get much here. The Rangers will have southpaw Martin Perez toeing the rubber and he is seeking revenge against the Yankees for a very ugly outing the last time he faced them. Since that start in July of last year, Perez has gone 3-0 with a 2.31 ERA in his last seven home starts. The Yankees are averaging just 2.7 runs per game on the road this season while the Rangers are averaging a solid 5.1 runs per game at home. The Yankees are 3-5 this season against left-handed starters while the Rangers have feasted on struggling teams so far this season with an 8-3 mark against teams with a losing record. As a home favorite of -125 to -150 the Rangers are 3-0 this season and 18-9 the past three seasons. We’ll grab the very reasonable small favorite price with the Texas Rangers at home on the money line Wednesday!
Teddy Covers
Royals +123
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Here’s an excerpt that I’ve been cutting and pasting when betting on Chris Young games for the last two seasons. It’s (obviously) still pertinent and valid:
“Young is a veteran hurler – he’s been in the majors since 2004 – and a bright guy, a Princeton graduate. He’s also extraordinarily tall at 6-10 with a tendency to throw high strikes, resulting in awkward angles for many opposing batters as they try to take him deep.
“This bright, experienced veteran now has a CAREER xFIP of more than a full run higher than his career ERA. Two years ago, it was more than a run and a half higher. Last year it was close to a run and a half differential between xFIP and ERA. Over one season, this would be an anomaly. Over a decade, it’s a clear pattern. Young’s fairly unique skill set allows him to leave high fastballs over the plate and still get fly ball outs. The advanced metric numbers don’t see the method behind the stats, which leaves Young as a perennially undervalued commodity.”
This Ned Yost quote after Young’s start in Oakland speaks volumes: “He’s not at his best right now, but he’s getting really, really close.” And after a rough start to that game against the A’s, Young made a mechanical adjustment with his slider: “My slider got sharper and had more depth to it.” Lo and behold, Young pitched his best game of the season against Baltimore in his last outing.
Behind Young is one of the best bullpens in baseball, in sharp contrast to the Angels pen that is ranked among the bottom half of MLB bullpens in ERA so far this season. That matters a lot with Nick Tropeano on the hill for LA tonight. Tropeano is no innings eater -- he has lasted into the seventh inning only twice in his 14 previous big league starts.
I want KC as an underdog off an ugly loss like the one they suffered last night; a squad that hasn’t lost three in a row yet this season. And I want no part of the Angels off back-2-back wins, something the team had managed to do only once prior to last night’s victory.
Martin Griffiths
Atlético MG vs. RACING CLUB AVELLANEDA
Play: Under 2½
An interesting game in the Copa Libertadores between Argentinian side Racing Cub and Brazilian outfit Atletico Mineiro tonight in South America's premier club competition.
These two sides have never met and so there are no head to heads to go on, but that does not mean that it is not possible to analyse the game.
For starters, this is a two legged affair where away goals are important and when you have two top teams from Argentina and Brazil you know that you are getting competitive teams.
Atletico will not want to concede that is for sure, they will have to curb their attacking instincts and make sure that they are well organised at the back, something I am confident they will do.
Racing Club will want to take an advantage to Brazil and will be looking for the win, while at the same time guarding against an away goal.
Atletico did better in the group stages than what Racing Club did, but the truth is they probably had an easier group to navigate.
I see a low scoring game here as long as both defences do their jobs and for me the best bet is to go with the unders.