Bryan Leonard
Astros vs. Mariners
Play: Astros +122
The Mariners took no prisoners against the slumping Astros yesterday in an 11-1 victory. But according to our friends at SportsDataBase.com Seattle hasn't followed up those extreme performances. The Mariners are just 14-41 after a home game in which it never trailed. Seattle is also 27-44 as a home favorite after scoring 6 or more runs. If that's not enough Seattle is 17-28 as a home favorite after allowing 6 or less hits. Usually these are all positive situations for a team. The hitters are confident after a big day and the bullpens are rested after a superior pitching performance. When the opposite is true of an individual team you must take advantage.
Dave Price
Baltimore Orioles +115
The Baltimore Orioles want revenge on the Tampa Bay Rays after dropping the first 2 games of this series. Now they'll be looking to avoid the sweep with a Game 3 victory. I think they get it done behind Chris Tillman, who is 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 4 starts this year. Tillman sports a 4.19 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 21 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay. He only allowed 1 run in 5 innings of a 6-1 victory over the Rays on April 8 this year. Matt Moore has allowed 13 earned runs in 17 innings in his last 3 starts against Baltimore for a 6.88 ERA. Tillman is a very profitable 24-15 (+14.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles are 4-1 in Tillman's last 5 road starts vs. Tampa Bay.
Matt Josephs
Indians vs. Twins
Play: Under 8
Jose Berrios makes his major league debut on Wednesday night and Twins fans are excited. Berrios went 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA in three triple-A starts this season giving up eight hits and two earned runs in 17 innings. He struck out 20 while walking eight. The righty will face a vulnerable Indians lineup that is averaging around three runs per game at night. Entering Tuesday night, Minnesota's bullpen is 4-1 with a 0.68 ERA and a WHIP of 1.025 at home. Josh Tomlin has won both of his starts giving up two runs and eight hits striking out 10 while walking one. Tomlin pitched well in Minnesota last year allowing two runs and five hits in just over six innings. Minnesota's offense is struggling big time this season. They were hitting .224 in their last seven games before Tuesday night. These two have played 12 unders in their last 20 meetings in Minnesota. I think the under is a good play.
Jesse Schule
Nashville Predators vs. Anaheim Ducks
Play: naheim Ducks -165
The Ducks got off on the wrong foot losing both Games 1 & 2 on home ice. A change between the pipes has flipped this series on it’s head though, as Frederick Andersen has come in and stymied the Preds in three straight games. He was great again in Game 6, giving up just two goals on 25 shots. There’s a lot to like about the Nashville Predators, and if it wasn’t for the fact that they play the Ducks in the first round, they might have been primed for a long playoff run. The Ducks finished with five more wins in the regular season, which doesn’t make a bit of difference here in the playoffs. What does make a difference though is that Anaheim allowed fewer goals than any other team in the league, and had by far the best special teams unit with the league’s #1 ranked power play and top penalty kill. he Preds are 1-for-23 on the power-play in the series, and it’s hard to win games in this league when you can’t compete in special teams play. Nashville is 0-8 when losing three of the first five games in a playoff series, and this will be the first Game 7 in Nashville's franchise history. I'll take the more experienced, more talented team at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLORADO (5 innings) -105
n Niese is 3-0 in four starts so he comes in with his stock higher than it’s been in quite some time. That means we are selling because Niese is very average. Last season, Niese stayed healthy for once but his skills were ill. His K-rate dropped drastically against lefties, but both sides swung less and his swing and miss rate sunk. Perennially hittable, he needs great control to avoid an awful WHIP. Niese was already fringe at his peak when he was in his prime with the Mets. Now he gets into a hitter’s park and the decline figures to be swift.
In his first start of the year, Jonathan Gray threw five innings against the Dodgers and was tagged for five runs. Gary was also taken yard twice but both bombs occurred in the very first inning. He subsequently settled in and struck out 10 batters in five frames against a team that doesn’t strike out much. That first outing does not look great on paper but everything was positive for Gray. He’ll have some growing pains for sure and this park is as nasty as they come but Jonathan Gray has the tools to overcome this unforgiving park. At the end of the day, Gray has much more value than Niese in an evenly priced game. Gray isn’t likely to go past five or six innings because he throws a lot of pitches while racking up those strikeouts, thus the five-inning wager.
TEXAS -1½ +155 over N.Y. Yankees
The Yankees have scored three runs or less in eight of their last 10 games. In the first two games here at this bandbox in Arlington, New York scored four runs in two games. This should come as no surprise, as this Yankees batting lineup is filled with rally killers. Now the Yanks will turn to C.C. Sabathia. Like many of his teammates, the only reason that C.C has a job is because the Yanks are paying him a fortune (24.2M) this season. In his 15.1 innings of work thus far, Sabathia has allowed 29 baserunners, which has led to a WHIP of 1.83. Luckily for Sabathia, a bunch of those did not score because his bullpen bailed him out. He has a BB/K split of 8/10. His fastball is at 88 MPH and he’s going on three years of being unreliable and not profitable. Sabathia will get the ball every five days until the Yanks just can’t take it anymore or until he checks himself into another rehab centre. If Sabathia wasn’t getting paid 24M to pitch this season, he would be released or put on waivers because he’s just no good anymore.
The market will see or read about Martin Perez’s 13 walks and 11 K’s in 24 innings this year and be concerned but we’re not. Perez has a strong first-pitch strike rate of 66%. His first-pitch strike rate last season was elite after returning from injury. Perez also has a heavy groundball lean and while we would like to see him miss more bats, his skills are aligning right. With 94 MPH heat and late life on his stuff, Perez is close to breaking out. He’s also a lefty with three quality starts in four tries this season that is facing a Yanks lineup that struggles versus lefties. Texas runs hot and cold offensively but after scoring 10 times last night, they are in warming up mode once again.
ARIZONA -1½ +169 over St. Louis
Adam Wainwright has been a huge disappointment so far in 2016 (7.25 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) and his underlying skills give no reason for optimism: 3.6 K’s/9, 4.0 BB/9, 39% groundball rate. With a four-seam fastball that is struggling to break 90 mph and a curveball that is no longer a punch-out pitch (8% swing and miss %), Wainwright has nothing left in his arsenal to turn to. He’s not even throwing strikes anymore and he’ll now face the majors highest scoring team. Arizona figures to eat well here.
Patrick Corbin has been very inconsistent over his four starts this season but he does own a 3.87 xERA. Corbin pitched very well at home en route to registering a 3.11 Chase Field ERA in 2015. He’ll be at Chase here and while the Cardinals own the league’s best OPS (.856), they’ve been just average against left-handed pitching and they were well below average against southpaws last season too.
Corbin’s skills are in fine shape. His typically good control was better than ever in 2015, and it came with Ball% support. A healthy swing and miss rate helped him rack up strikeouts at a better than league average rate. He was also able to maintain the groundball lean that he featured prior to his injury. He does not give up many bombs. Right-handed batters gave him trouble in 2015, but he has controlled them better in the past (2013). He spent the offseason working on his change-up, so if he can upgrade it and use it more often (10% in 2013; 6% in 2015), it should help him improve in that area.
Corbin returned last year after a 21-month hiatus to show even better skills than he did in his breakout 2013 campaign. With good health, there is reason to believe Corbin could post another season very similar to 2013. If the change-up develops into a legit weapon against right-handed batters, there’s a chance he could even top his 2013 performance. We’re buyers.
Chicago +130 over TORONTO
There are some pitchers that defy logic over an extended period of time but numbers do not lie when it comes to baseball. Eventually, a lack of skills catches up to everyone and it’s about to catch up to Marco Estrada too. Estrada keeps coming up with good pitching lines with awful skills. His high 84% strand rate is what is doing the heavy lifting this season (and last) but note his 1.44 WHIP. Nearly half of Estrada’s metrics are in steady decline, which includes his groundball rate (39%), his velocity (88 MPH) and his weak first-pitch strike rate (58%). There’s a dangerous level of disconnect between 2015 profits and xERA and someone's gonna overpay the price. It’s not going to be us. Estrada somehow managed to post a career-best ERA last year despite the worst skills of his career. Estrada had the second-largest gap between xERA and ERA among all starters in 2015. With a declining strikeout rate and extreme fly-ball tilt in a hitter-friendly yard, paying for anything close to Estrada's 2015 line would be a big mistake. You’ve been warned.
By contrast, Jose Quintana has great control, a 1.09 WHIP, five walks, 22 strikeouts and 93 MPH heat with life after four starts. Quintana is a strike thrower that wins games and his strong dominant start/disaster start split over four years is pure gold. The South Side took the first two games of this series with timely hitting and a great bullpen while the Jays pen is 0-7 this year and is only one of two teams without a bullpen win. Yeah, we'll bite.
SPS Investors
San Diego vs. San Francisco
Pick: Under
The San Diego Padres & San Francisco Giants conclude their 3 game set from AT&T Park this afternoon. The Giants have taken the first two games by just a single run apiece. It's been a closely contested series and we don't expect anything different today as Andrew Cashner squares off against Jeff Samardzija.
Both Samardzija and Cashner have been terrific on the mound in their most recent appearances. Samardzija is currently working on a string of three consecutive quality starts with his most recent being a 6 hit, one run gem against the Miami Marlins in this venue. He's 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA in six career outings (4 starts) against the Padres.
Cashner has also been performing well on the hill and has given up just a single run in each of his last two trips to the mound against the hard hitting St Louis Cardinals and Arizona DBacks. Cashner struggled against San Francisco a season ago so this will likely be his chance for retribution against the Padres neighbors to the North. He has had success against Hunter Pence as Pence is just 2 of 19 with 7 strikeouts in his career.
This game will be played during the day and a quick turnaround from last night's primetime game which could have an adverse effect on the hitters. Also, with the lighting changing from the bright artificial lights of the stadium to now having the natural lighting and glare of the sun, this could also play a role in the hitter’s ability to see the ball at the plate. With both pitchers hurling well from the mound, we expect the runs to be tough to come by this afternoon, resulting in this series finally going just Under the posted runs total.
Bruce Marshall
Rockets at Warriors
Play: Rockets +9.5
Houston's capacity for gutless performance is almost limitless, as indicated by the Game Four when outscored 65-38 by the Warriors minus Steph Curry. Therein however might lie the Rockets' chance to stay competitive tonight as they did win Game Three vs.a Steph-less Golden State. Enough cushion in this number for Houston to warrant a look before the offseason begins.
Steve Merril
LA Angels -132
Kansas City has lost the first two games of this series in Los Angeles, and we expect the Royals to get swept tonight. Kansas City will send Chris Young to the mound in this game. Young has given up 10 runs on 19 hits in 55 at-bats to the Los Angeles lineup in his career. The Angels are hitting .345 with a .991 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Young. My numbers project Young to have a weak 4.26 ERA with a lowly 1.7 strikeout/walk ratio in this game.
Los Angeles will start Nicholas Tropeano tonight. My numbers project a strong outing for Tropeano against Kansas City's lineup. Tropeano is slated to give up just 1.9 earned runs with a solid 3.20 ERA and a terrific 1.14 WHIP in this game based on my numbers. Tropeano has only thrown 6 total pitches to the hitters in the Royals' lineup, so that gives the right-hander a nice advantage in this game. He is also backed by an Angels' bullpen that has pitched better than their 3.12 ERA at home would seem to suggest as the relievers have an excellent 0.89 WHIP in those games. We'll lay the price with Los Angeles and Tropeano on Wednesday night.
Bob Balfe
Heat -6
The Hornets looked good in their home games to even up the series, but this series is all about the home court. The team at home limits turnovers which is all the difference in this series. The Heat shot 57% in both Game 1 and 2 and if they can duplicate that again tonight they will win with ease. We can’t look past the Hornets road struggles this year. Take the Heat.
Trailblazers -2
No Paul and no Griffin for the Clippers. You can’t get to this point in the season without those two and expect to win the basketball game. Portland has a golden chance to advance in this series because of the Clipper injuries. If L.A can win without those two superstars then so be it. Take Portland.
A’s -110
Two elite pitchers get together today to face off except Verlander has lost a little bit of his stuff since his injuries and it seems like he may be on the decline at least until he gets right which could take until next season. The A’s also have a great bullpen so I don’t expect many runs for Detroit tonight.
Harry Bondi
COLORADO +110 over Pittsburgh
Our Baseball "Steam Team" enjoyed another 2-0 sweep last night and one of the winners was the Pirates, but tonight we'll fade Pittsburgh and go with the Rockies. Some pitchers simply can't handle the high altitude of Coors Field and it appears Pittsburgh's Jon Niese is one of those guys. In three starts on this mound, the southpaw has compiled an ugly 7.94 ERA, allowing 36 hits in just 22 innings of work. That's enough evidence for us to take a shot on the home dog Rockies.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 48-34 run with complimentary plays: Baltimore at TAMPA BAY (-130)
The STORYLINE in this game today - I'm not sure how or why it is happening, but the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays are headed in opposite directions. The early luster of the Orioles has worn off, and they come into this contest in Tampa on a three-game slide. The Rays, meanwhile, are looking to return the favor of an early-season sweep by winning their fourth in a row.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Baltimore opened the season 7-0, behind an impressive lineup that averaged five runs through its first 16 games. But the Orioles have lost eight of 12, and have combined for a mere two runs in their last three, while being mired in a 1-4 slump to start this six-game road trip. Things just aren't the same, and being on the road doesn't help.
BOTTOM LINE is - Furthermore, carrying over those thoughts, Baltimore has plated just one run and tapped 14 hits in the first two games of this series after totaling 11 runs and 21 hits in a two-game home sweep of the Rays from April 8-10. Tampa Bay has to be chomping at the bit, after winning three straight and four in a row at Tropicana Field. The Rays are 7-3 since their 3-7 start. Don't list the pitchers, just play straight action.
1* TAMPA BAY
Brad Wilton
My Wednesday comp play will be for the Yankees and Rangers to post enough offense that we see an Over in the series finale.
CC Sabathia had a solid start to open the season, but over his last pair of starts, he has allowed 6 runs on 16 hits over his last 9-plus innings worked.
He will work against Martin Perez who is 0-2 thus far with an ERA of 4.50.
Texas was able to score 10 runs last night, and I expect them to be around that total again tonight.
New York should be able to help the Over cause with a few runs of their own.
Yankees-Rangers to go Over the total.
4* N.Y. YANKEES-TEXAS OVER
Scott Delaney
Atlanta (4-16) has lost seven straight after starting the season on a nine-game slide. All things considered, this might be the worst team in baseball, as the Braves are 12 games under .500 in 20 games or fewer for just the third time in franchise history. And despite all that, I'm taking the Braves with my free play tonight against the Boston Red Sox (11-9).
I don't know how many times I've emphasized this, but there aren't many teams that have extended streaks - win or lose - in the first half of the season, when they're shifting venues. Those with extended losing streaks are likely to snap them at home, and those with more than a five-game win streak will see it end if they're on the road.
Atlanta's 4.85 ERA is among the worst in baseball, sure, but much of it falls on the offense. Tonight I think we will see a rare explosion of the bats, because, well, that's what bad teams do. Occasionally they have big nights, and shock you when you least expect it.
So with a big number when everything points to the Crimson Hose, I will take the home pup, straight action.
5* BRAVES
Hollywood Sports
Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks
Take the money line with the Anaheim Ducks versus the Nashville Predators in their Game Seven showdown but be careful. I rarely recommend taking a money line favorite priced higher than -150 out of principle. And while I do think the Ducks exorcise some Game Seven ghosts on their home ice tonight, I don't they are worthy of the high price now inching towards -170 in some spots. I much prefer investing in a Two-Team Parlay with Anaheim along with my Totals' play (our 5* NHL First-Round Playoff Total of the Year) to lower the price of taking the Ducks while still producing a winning ticket in the final score lands on the Total of 5.
3G-Sports
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -5.5
Dwyane Wade has a lot of heart when the chips are down, Wade comes through each time they need him to. And with his leadership ability he will handle business as he has during this whole series so far. The Hornets just aren't good enough to score enough points here. They don't have the versatility that the Heat front court has. Kemba Walker is shooting just 39% during the series, and on the road, it will be just that much tougher. Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Miami wins by double digits.