Free Picks for Wednesday, April 5th, 2017from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
MARINERS AT ASTROS
PLAY: ASTROS -114
Last April, one of the more surprising early season developments was old pro Charlie Morton throwing harder and racking up lots of K’s for the Phillies. Morton’s injury prone tendencies once again showed up and he ended up going down for the count with a shredded hammy.
New season and the apparently new and improved Morton is coming off a really nice spring with his new team. Incredibly, he was actually touching 97 (!!!) in Grapefruit League action! This is a guy who prior to what I thought was a blip last April had been throwing his four-seam at 91-93 for several seasons.
I think Morton could be a really nice value investment early on. He’s going to be facing plenty of guys who’ve never seen him previously, as his entire big league career has been in the National League. I don’t mean to sound like I’m going overboard on Morton. But I gotta tell ya, if this guy is gonna throw this hard and still pound the lower regions of the strike zone, he’s going to shock some observers.
Seattle southpaw James Paxton has big time heat and he’s certainly capable of shutting down the Astros. But the Mariners have come out of the gate looking very sluggish with the sticks. Seattle has scored only one run in 18 innings to start the new season.
With the Mariners not in good form on offense and my feeling Morton could be an early season stunner, I’m going with the Astros to pick up another win over the Mariners.
Bruce Marshall
Raptors +1.5
Recent 2-9 SU skid has put Detroit on the brink of playoff elimination. The early stages of that slump included an 87-75 home loss to Toronto on St. Patrick's Day when Pistons could only shoot 34.9% from the floor and wasted a 22-rebound effort from Andre Drummond (partly because Drummond scored only 8 points and, as is his bent, missed all four of his FT attempts). Looking for another reason why Detroit is slumping? Since the All-Star break, the Pistons have been outscored by an amazing 36 points per 100 possessions in the first six minutes of the first quarter, as none of their various starting lineups has worked. No wonder Stan Van Gundy is looking like a condemned man in recent weeks.
Scott Rickenbach
Kansas City at Minnesota
Play: Kansas City -114
Look for the Royals to bounce back after an embarrassing 7-1 loss in the season opener at Minnesota Monday. In that game their bullpen did them in but, let's not forget, the Twins went 59-103 last season and the Royals are still a respectable team. That said, clubs like Kansas City are known for bouncing back off of ugly losses and they've had an extra day to prepare for it. Speaking of that extra day, the Twins are 13-28 the past two seasons when playing with a day off between games. Minnesota is also 93-131 against right-handed starters the past 2 seasons. The Royals are 90-63 in divisional games and 56-38 in day games. Kansas City will have Ian Kennedy getting the start and he's 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA in starts versus the Twins while Minnesota will have Hector Santiago on the mound. The southpaw has been rocked for 15 earned runs on 20 hits in less than 9 innings of work spanning his last two starts versus the Royals. Look for more of the same this afternoon.
Ray Monohan
Pirates / Red Sox Under 8
This play just missed out on our premium card. Chris Sale makes his much anticipated debut for the Red Sox, which means the under has a lot of value. Sale has been one of the most dominant pitchers the last few years, and that will continue this year. I expect Sale to get in grove early and pitch deep into this game.
Even with how good the Red Sox offense is, I don't expect them to put up a ton of runs in this game. The first game between these two teams ended 5-3 on Monday. Some trends to note. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Under is 14-3-1 in Red Sox last 18 overall. Under is 5-1-1 in Pirates last 7 road games.
Red Dog Sports
Middlesbrough vs. Hull City
Play: Hull City +100
Hull City and Middleborough are near the bottom of the table in the England Premier League. Hull City is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home matches and their last loss was against Manchester City. Middleborough is 0-3-2 in its last 5 matches. Take the home team as both battle relegation.
Marc Lawrence
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Blue Jays -110
Edges - Blue Jays: Happ 5-2 last seven team starts in April and 1.76 ERA with 059 WHIP this spring… Orioles: Bundy 7-11 ERA this spring. With Happ in commanding KW form this spring with 10 K’s and zero BB’s, we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.
Matt Josephs
Angels vs. A's
Plat: A's +104
Jharel Cotton looks to build off last year's finish as the A's host the Angels. Cotton went 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA in five September starts with one of those wins coming over these Angels at home in a game where he held them to one run and two hits in just over six innings. He allowed one run in five of his six starts during the spring and was able to keep the control in place outside of one short outing. Outside of Trout and Pujols, the Angels offense isn't that scary. Plus, the A's bullpen is underrated with a couple of solid arms. Garrett Richards is coming off a lost year due to Tommy John surgery. The righty is 2-4 with a 4.91 ERA in 10 career outings against Oakland. Richards had a rough Spring giving up seven runs and 12 hits in 12.1 innings of work. The Oakland lineup is pretty bad themselves, but I don't like Garrett's first start off TJ in 2017. LAA's bullpen is mighty shaky in it's own right. I like the home team to get the win.
Mike Anthony
Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets
Play: Charlotte Hornets -2
Frank Kaminsky can utilize the high post and get great looks when they swing the ball around for good shots - and with Kemba Walker shooting 40% from behind the arc - it causes a huge problem for opponents. The Charlotte frontcourt has size and weight over the Heats - they will be able to take advantage of their matchup down low repeatedly, even though Kaminsky is only gets the Hornets 5 reb/game - he gets important loose balls when needed. Miami needs to keep the Charlotte defense honest more often, take the open jumper when Charlotte isn't predicting it. But Erik Spoelstra keeps to his gameplan - Miami gets into a set and stays with it. Charlotte knows this as well, the Miami team fully goes through Goran Dragic every night. Miami hasn't been able to score with enough confidence for Charlotte to get too worked up over. Charlotte wins by 8 points
Alan Harris
John Rahm (+100) As Top Spaniard at The Masters
This is a fairly common prop that you will be able to find at most offshores and a few of the books in Vegas (Westgate, William Hill and South Point).This is really a three-horse race as to who will come away as the top Spaniard at the 2017 Masters despite the fact that there are four players listed in the prop. Jose Maria Olazabel is in the field, but he's listed at 65/1 in this prop, and let's be honest here, there's a very good chance that he's not going to be playing into the weekend. As for the other two golfers in the prop, Sergio Garcia is listed at +160 while Rafael Cabrera Bello checks in at +325. Two reasons why we like Rahm here even though it will be his first time at Augusta. The first being that he in coming into the tournament as probably the hottest golfer on the planet other than Dustin Johnson. The 22-year-old already earned his first PGA Tour win this season at the Farmers and he's finished T16, T5, T3, 2 and T10 in his last five tournaments coming into the Masters. The other thing that has us on Rahm here is that anytime we get a chance to bet against Sergio in a big-time event, we try and do it. He's never won a major and he tends to come up small when the spotlight is on him, which it will be this week once the "best player to never win a major" talk starts to pop up. We actually think that Cabrera Bello could be more of a challenge to Rahm here since he finished 17th here last year, but he's been in awful form coming in as he has gone T37, T38, T17 and CUT in his last four tourneys leading up to this week. We would have made Rahm around -140 or so based on his current play, so we'll take him at the even money or so price here as the Newsletter Free Play to finish as the top Spanish player at The Masters this weekend.
DAVE COKIN
MICKELSON VS. STENSON
PLAY: MICKELSON -110
Phil Mickelson heads to Augusta in solid form. Lefty didn’t have a good tournament at Houston, but his prior two events were each top 10 finishes. Mickelson always gets revved up for the majors, but I have to think he’ll be especially intent on performing well at this year’s Masters after missing the cut in 2016.
Henrik Stenson is playing some of the worst golf of his career right now. He has missed back to back cuts in his last two tournaments and the week prior to that, he started off with a -7 and finished the weekend still at -7. Prior to that was the unfortunate episode in Mexico where Stenson had to withdraw after 11 holes, due to what I’ll just call illness.
Augusta is also not a layout that has brought out the best in Stenson. He has zero top tens in this event, and unless he suddenly relocates his stuff, that streak figures to continue. The big problem for Stenson of late has been poor iron play, which is certainly not the norm for this immensely talented player.
I don’t know if Lefty can make one more serious run at another green jacket, as he isn’t getting any younger and at this point, he’s just not as good as the top guys on the tour. But I do feel we’ve got a good chance to cash a ticket with Mickelson this weekend in a matchup wager against the slumping Stenson.
Wunderdog
Colorado @ Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee +110
This is the third straight road game for Colorado, and the team is on an 8-20 run away from home. Colorado's 2016 team ERA of 4.91 was the fourth-worst mark in the majors, and its relievers were worse with a 5.13 ERA. Rockies starter Tyler Chatwood threw poorly in spring training with a 4.09 ERA, as he allowed batters to hit .295 against him. The Rockies are also just 15-31 against the NL Central. Milwaukee has veteran Wily Peralta going, who had a 2.92 ERA over his last 10 starts last year. Colorado went 1-5 against Milwaukee last season - its lowest win total against any National League club.
Jim Feist
San Antonio at Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles
San Antonio is pretty much locked into the #2 seed in the West. Coach Gregg Popovich has kept quiet about whether he will rest players or not, but it's hard to see this team going all out the last week. San Antonio plays a pair of games this week in the second of a back to back starting with this one, then games Friday and Saturday. The Spurs are 3-7 ATS against a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Spurs played last night, while the young Lakers are rested with two full days off. They come off a win over Memphis as a +7 dog.
Brad Wilton
Wednesday's comp play is the Texas Rangers to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians.
After coming back on Monday to win it 8-5, the defending American League Champs took last night's game 4-3 over Texas.
I have to believe that the Rangers avoid the sweep with veteran southpaw Cole Hamels on the hill tonight.
Hamels has been the "money man" at home, as the Rangers have won 18 of his last 22 starts in Arlington, and he did defeat the Indians in his last start against them last August, working 8 scoreless innings with just 2 hits allowed, and 8 strikeouts.
The Rangers have not started the season at 0-3 in 10 years, and I don't see it happening tonight.
Texas to get to Cleveland starter Danny Salazar, as they avoid the sweep.
2* TEXAS
Alex Smart
Hornets -2
The Miami Heat went on a 24-6 run during the middle part of this season, before falling back down to earth of late , losing four of their L/6 overall. It seems since Guard Dion Waters went down with a ankle injury the Heats offensive flow has diminished, and is effecting the the Heats overall efficiency, especially in transition. Meanwhile, Charlotte after some wild inconsistencies this season, are currently in top form winning 7 of their L/9 and must be respected here on their own home floor, in a game that is important to both sides because of post season aspirations. Note: The Hornets won the first two meetings this season before dropping a 108-101 decision to the Heat on March 8, but considering the matchup systems, analysis I have done using current lineups Im betting on the Hornets. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.