John Martin
Thunder/Grizzlies Under 202
Both the Thunder and Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. The Thunder beat the Bucks 110-79, while the Grizzlies lost to the Spurs 89-95 in overtime. I think with both teams being on tired legs that this game will be played at a snail's pace tonight, and both teams will be hampered offensively. The UNDER is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 7-2 in Thunder's last nine games overall. OKC is 12-2 UNDER in road games off a home game this season. The UNDER is 21-10 in Thunder last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Brandon Lee
Reds -105
Cincinnati is worth a look here at home against the Phillies. The Reds lost their home opener 3-4 and just aren't a popular team to back being in rebuilding mode. I believe it has them showing decent value on their home field. Cincinnati will send out promising youngster Brandon Finnegan, who is one of the promising young pieces on this roster. This could very well be a breakout season for him. Phillies will counter with Jerad Eickhoff, who had a solid year in 2016, with a 3.65 ERA over 33 starts. However, he posted a 3.32 ERA at home and had an ERA over 4.00 on the road. This is still a very potent Reds offense led by Votto.
Info Plays
Angels -115
I have a few systems backing our pick. LA Angels are 769-689 (+73.8 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997. LA Angels are 596-472 (+85.5 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games without a stolen base since 1997.
Jimmy Boyd
Orioles -116
I really like the value here with Baltimore as a short home favorite against the Blue Jays. Last year the Orioles were one of just six teams to win at least 50 games on their home field and I just don't feel they are getting the respect they deserve here. A lot of that has to do with Toronto's starter J.A. Happ, who is coming off a career-year that saw him go 20-4. In his previous 9 seasons his best win total was 12 and that was back in 2009 with the Phillies. I'm not saying he's going to take a major turn for the worse, I just feel he's getting a little too much love having never put together back-to-back elite seasons.
Baltimore will counter here with talented youngster Dylan Bundy, who was the 4th overall pick in the 2011 draft. He didn't have the best spring, but that's nothing to worry about. The 24-year-old is poised for a breakout season. He joined the rotation in the 2nd half last year and the Oriole won 7 of his last 11 starts.
Jack Jones
Clippers -11.5
The Los Angeles Clippers sit just one game behind the Utah Jazz for the 4th seed in the Western Conference. They want to finish strong to try and earn home-court advantage in the first round of that series.
They have done just that so far by winning three straight coming in. Now they will be fresh and ready to go tonight considering they haven't played since Saturday, giving them three days off in between games. Expect one of their best efforts of the season tonight as a result.
The Dallas Mavericks are just going through the motions now. They have gone 1-5 in their last six games overall, including an 87-98 loss to lowly Sacramento last night. Now the Mavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days tonight.
Playso n favorites (LA Clippers) - revenging two consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite, off a home win are 143-88 (61.9%) ATS since 1996. Los Angeles will also be out for revenge from two straight losses to the Mavericks by a combined four points.
Dave Price
Rays +131
Alex Cobb is working his way back from 2015 Tommy John surgery. Cobb has owned the Yankees throughout his career, going 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA in 12 lifetime starts against them. Michael Pineda hasn't fared nearly as well against the Rays, going 2-4 with a 4.63 ERA in 12 lifetime starts against them. The price is clearly right to back the Rays at home tonight as +131 underdogs.
Black Widow
Rangers -101
Bets on all underdogs (Texas) after two or more consecutive losses, first 12 games of the season, a playoff team from last season who lost their last three games are 31-13 since 1997 and gaining +24.3 units. Look for the Rangers to get their first win of the season behind Cole Hamels today.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia -104 over CINCINNATI
Here’s the thing – the Reds are likely going to lose 100 games this year or more and therefore, the math is simple. When the Reds are evenly priced against almost any team in the majors, especially when the pitching matchup does not favor them, they are to be faded and that applies here. Brandon Finnegan is a converted reliever that turned starter last year and he did show signs of growth. Are we buying? Ah, NO! Relievers turned starters rarely have long term success, which is why they are relievers in the first place. No pitcher on this planet starts out by wanting to appear in relief. They are simply not good enough to be a starter and eventually end up in the bullpen. Major-league hitters study pitchers and now that the league has seen exactly what this stiff has to offer, doom is inevitable. Finnegan is a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter’s park. All those fly-balls led to major HR problems, especially vR (27 HR allowed vR). Finnegan may be worth watching for signs of further progress if he’s being offered a big price but gopheritis is a stubborn stain right now and so is that 4.78 xERA he posted last season.
Jerad Eickhoff made 33 starts and posted a respectable 3.65 ERA in his first full MLB season. While Eickhoff needs more polish, this is a solid skill set. His superb command is a definite plus. While Eickhoff doesn’t light up the radar gun (91 mph), he has an excellent curve and above-average slider. His swing and miss rate indicates he should continue to be decent strikeout source. Left-handed batters have feasted on Eickhoff but it’s worth pointing out that his curve has been highly effective vL (.180 BAA and 1 HR in 2016), so perhaps a tweak to his pitch mix could be in order. He has also had problems with the long-ball (1.4 hr/9), which were exacerbated by a 10% rise in fly-ball% in the second half. However, it’s not unusual for rookies to regress as the season wears on. Hitters learn and adjust but good pitchers with high baseball IQ’s will also make adjustments. Eickhoff is a student of the game that spends hours in the film room, which figures to serve him as well as all the others that have made a commitment to excellence. Eickhoff has shown the ability to be a durable starter, completing at least five innings in 31 of his 33 starts. His capacity to make necessary adjustments will determine whether or not he can squeeze a little extra out of this skill set but for now, we’re willing to roll with him at this reduced price against the Reds.
BALTIMORE -104 over Toronto
PECOTA is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. It is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. We mention that because this is not the section that concedes that the 2017 iteration of the Charm City squad will have finally, once and for all, murdered PECOTA (in the warehouse, with a baseball bat). No, PECOTA would have died a gruesome death years ago if that were going to happen. The Orioles defy logic, which means they are supposed to lose way more games but they don’t. This Orioles season is sure to have a great many things like another dominant season for the bullpen and timely hits from Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo (why anyone throws Trumbo a strike is mind-boggling). Those things are par for the course with this squad, and not particularly distinguishable from the past few seasons. So no, the 2017 team will not be remembered for such feats. Rather, they will be remembered for breaking the streak between ace-level performances that has rendered the Orioles' rotation the butt of jokes, and they’ll do it with a home-grown starter or two. With Kevin Gausman and a healthy Dylan Bundy on the roster, the O’s have two high-octane arms that could anchor the front of a rotation. Gausman is most of the way there, and likely the better bet of the two guys to do it but don’t count out Bundy.
Bundy is a former fourth overall pick so let’s not discount his pedigree. This is a pitcher that still managed over 94 miles per hour on his fastball in August and September, as he was pushed past 100 innings despite tallying a mere 22 innings in 2015. It’s possible the exhaustion of an extended season played a significant part in Bundy’s home run woes, given that he surrendered half of the 18 homers he allowed on the season over the course of his final eight starts. Finally on the road back after elbow and shoulder issues derailed his development, that second half last year gives a glimpse of his upside, as strikeouts surged behind his swing and miss uptick while he got stretched back out as a starter. This kid can pitch folks and this might be your last chance to buy low on Bundy.
J.A. Happ gave back small velocity gains from Pittsburgh but maintained a new mix with a heavy fastball/slider combo and he sprinkled in curve/change. However, outside of Happ’s wacky win total, not much else changed. Age, ERA/xERA gap, decline in skills, and just average command should temper anyone’s expectations. Happ is priced like a #2 starter here when he’s a four or five. He’s priced high because he was one of the better starters in the AL in 2016, at least on the surface (3.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). Still, his collection of base skills was more average than good: 6.5 K’s/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 42% groundballs. Credit a 27% hit rate and 77% strand rate for his shiny surface stats. Happ is an average pitcher that you can bank on coming back to the pack. There's some significant regression coming here and we’ll be all over it until the market adjusts.
Seattle +107 over HOUSTON
A hamstring surgery ended Charlie Morton’s 2016 season abruptly after four April starts. A big groundball %, the ability to keep the ball in the yard and decent control have compensated somewhat for a sub-par strikeout rate, and teased at moderate value as a bottom-of-the-rotation starter. But health always seems to intervene, and Morton offers more value in the real game than he does in betting markets. The Astros’ willingness to pay him (14 million over two years) speaks to both the poor free agent starting pitching market and suggests that Morton is in line to replace free agent Doug Fister in their rotation. Morton has a career xERA of 4.54, which is not in a range we’re interested in, especially considering all the time that he’s spent on the DL over the years. Rarely is Charlie Morton fresh.
James Paxton enters 2017 as one of the best breakout targets in the game. He has multiple swing-and-miss pitches in addition to a fastball that sat at 97 mph in 2016. In addition, RH bats had no chance against him. Paxton’s remaining bugaboo is lefties, as he hasn't put up great nymbers against them and his command waivers a bit when facing them in each of the last two years. With a tweak there and good health, Paxton could develop into one of the AL's best pitchers in 2017. We also like that the Astronauts feature a heavy right-handed batting lineup other than Josh Reddick and Norichika Aoki. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and rookie sensation, Yuli Gurriel all bat from the right side.
SPORTS WAGERS
The Masters
Augusta National is one of the most iconic courses in golf, and home to some of the sport’s most unforgettable moments. This 7,435 yard, Par 72 stretch was the baby of Rees Jones and originally opened in 1933, but to keep The Masters as competitive and as unpredictable as possible, the course has undergone all manner of reboots and overhauls in that time.
In 2002, Tom Fazio was commissioned to give some TLC to this beloved track, and he did just that by lengthening holes, tightening fairways and overseeing a change from the old Bermudagrass greens to their current Bentgrass composition. It is upon these greens that champions are made and dreams crushed: they typically run at a rapid 13.5 on the stimpmeter. Built on the site of an old nursery, Augusta remains heavily tree-lined to this day, and each hole is named after a species of tree. The stroke average is generally over par most years, and we can understand more about the unique contours of Augusta by looking at each hole in detail:
Hole 1: Tea Olive (Par 4, 445 yards) – With a stroke index of 4.36 in 2016, the first hole was the second hardest on the course 12 months ago and it is easy to see why: your tee shot has to be threaded through overhanging trees, while the contoured green features brutal run-off areas. With nerves likely on the first tee, a par here is a decent way to start.
Hole 2: Pink Dogwood (Par 5, 575 yards) – The first Par 5 of Augusta and the easiest hole on the course, so it is one that players must take advantage of. The scoring average here 12 months ago was just 4.64, and that’s because there are no demons; just keep your tee shot to the right and enjoy a fantastic line in to the green.
Hole 3: Flowering Peach (Par 4, 350 yards) – This is a tough Par 4 that played at 4.14 in 2016, and that is largely because of the risk and reward approach in place: an iron off the tee can yield a secure par, while a long drive *can* yield results for those taking on the huge fairway bunker. The front of the green is capped by a huge slope, so pitching in well is key.
Hole 4: Flowering Crab Apple (Par 3, 240 yards) – A beastly Par 3, this was the third hardest hole on the course last year and it’s not hard to see why with that heavily sloping green and long yardage. This is where many dreams have been shattered early on Championship Sunday.
Hole 5: Magnolia (Par 4, 455 yards) – Sign for a par here and you have done a pretty good job. A scoring average of 4.22 this time last year tells its own tale of a hole that requires a pretty hefty draw off the tee for ideal position.
Hole 6: Juniper (Par 3, 180 yards) – With its huge slope downhill to the green, the sixth has become iconic as players have to hit over spectators’ heads off the tee! A small green and huge downslope requires optimum distance judgment and club selection, especially if the wind is swirling.
Hole 7: Pampas (Par 4, 450 yards) – One of Augusta’s tightest fairways, a long, straight hit will get you in prime position off the tee. Anything wayward can be catastrophic however: this was the fifth hardest hole last year. Five greenside bunkers enhance the challenge yet further.
Hole 8: Yellow Jasmine (Par 5, 570 yards) – Another Par 5, another chance to score. Danny Willett played this hole at just -1 a year ago, but on average it was the third easiest on the course. Steeply uphill, the tee box was moved back as part of one of the more recent overhauls and a tactically placed bunker can negate the advantage of the bombers. But, clear the sand and there is the outside chance of finding the dancefloor in two.
Hole 9: Caroline Cherry (Par 4, 460 yards) – One of the easier Par 4 stretches at Augusta, a devastatingly sloping green requires sensible course management; approach shots have been known to roll more than 50 yards away if pitching on the downslope. One of the few holes at Augusta where long-drivers hold a significant advantage.
Hole 10: Camellia (Par 4, 495 yards) – The start of the back nine and a well-shaped draw here can propel the ball towards the optimum landing area at a rate of knots. The trees on the right-hand side are where Bubba played his miraculous escape shot to win his first Masters in 2012.
Hole 11: Magnolia (Par 4, 455 yards) – Here we go: Amen Corner. And what a way to start with the hardest hole on the course. The scoring average in 2016 was 4.52, and you sense that most in the field would be happy to take a five and move on. To get to the top of the fairway hill a huge drive is required, while guarding the left-hand side of the green is a huge water feature that has provided the backdrop to many a collapse over the years. Willett played the 11th in level par last year, which will have helped his confidence no end.
Hole 12: Golden Bell (Par 3, 155 yards) – If you get through Magnolia unscathed don’t rest on your laurels just yet. The 12th was the ultimate undoing for Spieth 12 months ago with his quadruple bogey, and while the yardage is short the approach from the tee box is tricky.
Hole 13: Azalea (Par 5, 510 yards) – One of the few holes to play under par last year, you can sense the pressure is on the players to really make their mark here after the Magnolia-Golden Bell double header. A decent drive sets up a mid-range iron over Rae’s Creek, and a birdie here really is a must.
Hole 14: Chinese Fir (Par 4, 440 yards) – Willett played this in -2 last year, and while that does do a disservice to its difficulty, the sense is that Chinese Fir can be attacked. There are no bunkers or major hazards here, just a multi-shelved green that can be overcome with a decent approach.
Hole 15: Firethorn (Par 5, 530 yards) – The last of the Par 5s and another to play under par; helped by the expansive landing area off the tee. There is a water hazard at the front of the green and the downward sloping nature of the putting surface has seen many a ball roll off and into oblivion.
Hole 16: Redbud (Par 3, 170 yards) – Perhaps the easiest Par 3 at Augusta, but with nerves jangling as the finishing line approaches and water and sand framing the green, it is anything but a gimme. Willet’s Sunday birdie here kept his title challenge alive.
Hole 17: Nandina (Par 4, 440 yards) – One of the most wildly undulating greens in world golf plays out some putting disasters on the course’s penultimate hole, and if your approach pitches badly then you can once again be 50 yards or more from immortality.
Hole 18: Holly (Par 4, 465 yards) – The final hole of a torturous 18 and this played some 0.24 over par 12 months ago. It looks fairly nonthreatening to the naked eye, but carefully placed bunkers and overhanging trees can make life a misery. But a decent iron in that catches the right slope (this green goes off in crazy directions) can lead to a mid-range putt for birdie. And who knows, perhaps the title of Masters champion 2017!
So what will transpire in the 2017 edition of The Masters? Who knows, but one thing is for sure: there will be plenty of ups and downs as part of this exhilarating thrill-ride in a small town in Texas. The numerous sub-plots are in place. Has any golfer in history been in better form heading into a Masters renewal than Dustin Johnson? This is a guy who has won the last three tournaments he has entered, and is helping to take the sport into a whole new stratosphere. A first try on of the Green Jacket would be a fitting epitaph to a wonderful year for DJ.
As for Rory McIlroy, it’s now nearly a year since he won anywhere and two-and-a-half years since he triumphed in a major. You sense that the Ulsterman is desperate to get back in the saddle. Questions remain around the psychological wellbeing of Spieth as he returns to Augusta for the first time, as well as the mental and physical health of Jason Day too.
So, could this be the year that an outsider wins The Masters? That was certainly the case last year when Danny Willett romped home at a sportsbook price of 125-1 and while he is the longest-priced winner for a number of years, Augusta still throws up some surprises. Matt Fitzpatrick, the English rookie, marked his second trip to Augusta – and his first as a pro – with a T7 finish after an error-free Sunday round of 67. In 2014, young upstart Spieth had a chance of glory in his first trip to the course, as did wily old veterans Miguel Angel-Jimenez, Jonas Blixt, and Thomas Bjorn. Bubba Watson would eventually seal his second Masters triumph with a steady final round of 69. Those at longer odds with the Vegas books must not be ignored, as they often have a part to play in the destination of the Green Jacket and that will be our focus here.
The beauty of The Masters is that it is played at the same venue year in, year out, and the upshot of that is we have a huge raft of stats and trends to work with. For example, in the last 20 years we know that only four players have missed the cut the week before they triumphed at Augusta. That suggests an 80% chance that the likes of Spieth, Stenson, Scott, and Patrick Reed won’t get the job done this week. Of course, these patterns are there to be broken, but some of the evidence is so compelling that it would be foolish not to consider these points prior to making your bets or drafting your fantasy players. All of the below stats were correct at the point the champions in question won their Masters title:
2016: Danny Willett
How many times in Masters: 1
Masters finish the year before: T38
Best Masters finish: T38
Form heading in: 28-23-3-45
Past three major appearances: 54-6-MC (PGA ’15, The Open ’15, US Open ’15)
2015: Jordan Spieth
How many times in Masters: 1
Masters finish the year before: 2
Best Masters finish: 2
Form heading in: 2-2-1-17
Past three major appearances: MC-36-17 (PGA ’14, Open ’14, US Open ’14)
2014: Bubba Watson
How many times in Masters: 5
Masters finish the year before: 50
Best Masters finish: 1
Form heading in: WD-9-2-1
Past three major appearances: MC-32-32 (PGA ’13, Open ’13, US Open ’13)
2013: Adam Scott
How many times in Masters: 11
Masters finish the year before: 50
Best Masters finish: 2
Form heading in: 33-3-30-10
Past three major appearances: 11-2-15 (PGA ’12, Open ’12, US Open ’12)
There are a few anomalies to consider, but really the clues are here in neon Technicolor. Each of the past four winners of The Masters were in good form heading into their triumphant appearance; which might sound obvious, but each of this quartet had recorded a top-five finish in their four tournaments prior to Augusta. Bubba had won (Northern Trust Open) and finished second (WGC Cadillac), while Spieth has been a winner (Valspar Championship), lost in a play-off (Houston Open) and recorded another podium place at the Texas Open. Form and confidence heading to Augusta is a necessity.
You’ll note that each had played reasonably well in The Masters the year before; a high finish isn’t essential, but the stats would suggest at least making the weekend is: each of the last 10 Masters champions had made the cut the year before they slipped into the Green Jacket. Three of the last four Masters champs had recorded a top-20 in their prior three major appearances as well, and the anomaly – Bubba – can perhaps be forgiven seeing as though he is a multiple-time Augusta victor. And finally, each of the last 10 Masters winners had all played Augusta at least once prior to their triumph. Sorry, Mr Rahm! Other Masters stats that are of interest:
Each of the last 10 winners was aged 40 or under at the time of their win.
Eight of the last 10 were ranked in the world’s top 30 at the time.
Nine of the last 10 winners were non-European; 5x American, 2x South African, 1x Argentinean, 1x Australian.
No world number one (at the time) has won The Masters in the past decade. Can Dustin Johnson break that cycle in 2017? As for what kind of players we should be looking for this week? Driving distance has typically been more important than accuracy: Spieth and Willett ranked just 52nd and 32nd for Driving Accuracy in their winning efforts. A natural accomplice of the above is that a decent week of Scrambling is essential to rescue position, while clearly putting well on these fast and cruelly undulating greens is essential. Finally, here’s how the last 10 champions combined have played the course:
Par 3s: -4
Par 4s: -12
Par 5s: -90
Little else needs to be said about that.
While guys like DJ, McElroy, Spieth, Matsuyama, Day or Fowler can certainly win this event, we’re not interested in short odds because there is no value whatsoever in a guy like Dustin Johnson at 5 or 6-1. For fantasy players, it’s different so at the bottom of this page, we’ll add our “high priced” FANTASY golfer favorite. From a betting standpoint, however, we’re looking for a sweet payout and hopefully one or more of the following will be in contention on Sunday. Enjoy this wonderful event
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:
Louis Oosthuizen 50-1
The South African has enjoyed himself at Augusta over the years, and it really is a course that suits his game. Not the most accurate off the tee, Oosthuizen comes alive in the final third of a hole and as long as his putter is hot, there is no obvious reason why he can’t go close again. A run of 15-19-25-MC-2 speaks for itself. At 50-1, we are getting a major winner (2010’s Open) who has also finished runner-up in three other ‘biggies’. That experience could prove to be crucial down the back nine on Sunday. Oosthuizen is also in form this season including a third at the Phoenix Open, a T21 at the Honda Classic and T28 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. One thing is for sure, in a nerve-racking finale, Oosthuizen is a man to have onside. (Risking 0.2 units to win 10 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
L. Oosthuizen -108 over B. Snedeker (risking 1.08 units to win 1)
Kevin Kisner 100-1
Given the fragility he showed with victory at his mercy at the Arnold Palmer Invitational just a couple of weeks ago, we have to be cautious when talking up the chances of Kevin Kisner. But then, to even get into a position of such authority, you have to be playing great golf, right? Kisner led by four strokes at one point during the back nine of his title assault, and his subsequent collapse was something of a concern. However, that decent showing came on the back of almost top-10s at the WGC Mexico (T11), AT&T Pebble Beach (T10), and the Sony Open (T4), so we know that the University of Georgia graduate is playing great golf right now. He made his one-and-only Augusta appearance last year, finishing T37. Where did Danny Willett finish in his sole start here prior to winning the championship? T38. Kisner is worth a bet. (Risking 0.2 units to win 20 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
K. Kisner -118 over Z. Johnson (risking 1.18 units to win 1)
Hudson Swafford 175-1
The Shell Houston Open is deliberately placed in the PGA TOUR calendar to fall a week prior to The Masters and the reason for that is that the Golf Club of Houston offers plenty of similarities to Augusta. It’s eye-catching then that Swafford fired three rounds in the 60s on his way to a T6 finish, which extends his fine run of form to three top-10s in his last seven starts; including that maiden victory at the CareerBuilder Challenge. Two Georgians have won the Masters – Larry Mize and Bubba Watson – and Swafford, an honorary Georgian after studying there and setting up home in St. Simon’s, will be looking to join the distinguished club. Nice overlay here. (Risking 0.2 units to win 35 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
In the head to head matchups, Swafford is -148 over Sullivan and while it`s tempting, we don’t lay that price in anything, especially at a course like this where things can turn sour so quickly.
Bill Haas 80-1
Haas is as close to a Mr. Dependable as you can get at Augusta: he’s a perfect seven-for-seven here, and at a decent rate of 24-12-20-20-37-42-26 too. He should make the cut and could very well be in contention on Sunday. The form is in place, and a really impressive showing at the WGC Match Play locked Haas in place for us. He’s made eight cuts from as many starts this campaign and only finished outside the top-30 twice. 17 of Haas’ last 25 rounds of golf have been in the 60s so this is a guy currently at the peak of his powers. Haas has some key stats working too, as he’s ranked 4th on TOUR in Shots Gained Around-the-Green, 16th on TOUR in Shots Gained Tee-To-Green and 19th on TOUR in Greens in Regulation. Rarely will you get a pro in this fine form at these long odds. (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
B. Haas -125 over JB Holmes (risking 1.25 units to win 1)
Emiliano Grillo 125-1
The majestically talented Argentine is another who seems to save his best golf for the big tournaments. He delivered three top-20 finishes in four major starts in 2016, including T12 at The Open, T13 at the PGA Championship and T17 at The Masters. The 2017 campaign hasn’t gone that well for Grillo, but timing – being the darling that it is – reveals that he delivered his best finish in his last strokeplay start: T7 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. But for a third round of 78, he might well have clinched his second PGA TOUR title. Grillo’s natural game is well suited to Augusta, and the majors seem to bring out the best in a prodigiously talented young man.
(Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
E. Grillo -117 over B. Grace (risking 1.17 units to win 1)
Brooks Koepka 66-1
There was genuine concern for the golf game of Brooks Koepka recently, who seemed to be spending more time snapping clubs than making birdies. But a decent showing at the WGC Match Play, where he beat the likes of Reed, Dufner, and Kisner, suggested the old magic had returned, and for a fine young talent that has developed a taste for the majors (4-DNP-13-21-5-10) that is timely indeed. A lack of any real stroke-play form may just see Koepka slide under the radar this week, especially in FANTASY and so whether you are betting this event or playing DFS, Koepka is someone that shouldn’t be ignored. He ranks 5th on TOUR in Driving Distance, 22nd on TOUR in Shots Gained Putting and 32nd on TOUR in Birdie Average. Those are some impressive numbers that could certainly catapult him into contention on Sunday. (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
C. Koepka +104 over M. Leishman (risking 1 unit to win 1.04 units)
FOR ALL FANTASY PLAYERS, OUR TOP PICK THIS WEEK HAS TO BE DJ:
While it’s true that no world number one at the time has ever donned the Green Jacket, if anybody can break that voodoo its DJ, whose form in PGA TOUR events in recent weeks reads a ridiculous 1-1-1-3-MC-6-3, which is basically binary code rather than a formline of a professional golfer. When making our draft, we ask ourselves who is likely to pick up the most points this week? Johnson, who ranks first on tour for Strokes Gained: Total, SG: Tee-to-Green and Greens in Regulation, is surely that man. The improvement in his wedge and short iron game speaks for itself in his results. Is DJ well suited to Augusta? You bet: 4-6-MC-13 is as competitive a formline as you will read here, and don’t forget that he was still yet to get the major monkey off his back until the US Open last year, and so now he can play The Masters with less pressure on his shoulders. Dude is in a Jack Nicklaus/Tiger Woods-like zone right now and it’s for that reason, we simply have to draft him if we’re going to play DFS.