DAVE COKIN
PHILADELPHIA AT CINCINNATI
PLAY: PHILADELPHIA +120
It’s a battle of likely also-rans this evening in Cincinnati, as the Reds play host to the Phillies. Cincy came out on top in the Monday opener as they rallied against a Phillies bullpen that has a good chance to be the worst in baseball.
I like the Phils to break their 2016 maiden here. Aaron Nola doesn’t have ace stuff, but he’s certainly got ace mentality. I really like this guy’s bulldog approach. Nola looks to me like a pitcher who will grind out quality starts on a regular basis. The wow factor will probably never be there, but there’s sure nothing wrong with a pitcher who can churn out quality starts on a regular enough basis to give his team a legit chance to win.
Brandon Finnegan will start for Cincinnati, and whether he has a good outing or not will likely be dependent on his control. Throwing strikes on a consistent basis has been an issue for the southpaw ever since he turned pro, and that has not yet changed based on what I saw during spring ball. I don’t think there’s any question Finnegan can be a successful major league starting pitcher. But he has to stop putting himself in position to get beat with those walks.
In looking at the Phillies roster, it’s my take that this team is going to be able to do some damage against lefties. Darin Ruf will likely supplant Ryan Howard in these matchups, which I consider an upgrade. The rally returns as a big leaguer indicate switch hitting Cesar Hernandez is better from the right side. Maikel Franco exhibited substantial sock against lefties last season, and we’ve only seen the top of that iceberg.
The bad news is that Nola isn’t going nine innings and that Philly bullpen is really bad. But I feel there’s a good chance the visitors will at least have the lead late in this one, and with a decent dog price tag being offered, I’ll take my chances with the Phillies tonight.
Sleepyj
Giants / Brewers Under 8.5
I think we see a pitchers duel in this one today....We all know the giants have gone all in for this season...A potent lineup and the pitching on paper looks great...Only thing is the Giants arms late in the season is a question for me...Early SF should be strong and a pitcher who takes the mound in Samardzija should benefit from nice off season....He really struggled later in the year and he was getting hit left and right..His innings pitched last year were rather high and I expect them to limit his pitching throughout the year as much as possible...He will be strong early on and that has been his MO....I strongly believe he can silence the bats of the Brewers here today....Milwaukee will counter will Jungmann...Not a bad pitcher at all and I think he is on the rise....Early on in the year the arms are much stronger and the bats tend to lag a bit...I think that's the case here today and both guys have decent success..I think we see a decent amount of strikeouts and the long ball may struggle here..The forecast is for cold weather and the warmest guy in the game will be the pitcher and catcher on both sides...The cold weather will affect the flight of the ball in this one..I don't think we see any bombs in this pitching duel..Should be a great game with this one being the first game on tap today....This one may hit 5 or 6, but asking for 9 runs looks a bit steep to me...I think this line comes down.
Rob Vinciletti
Brooklyn at Washington
Play: Washington -14½
The Wizards have covered 3 of the last 4 in the series and should coast in this game as they have covered in 20 of the last 26 April games. Brooklyn has shot under 40% in 3 straight games. Road teams with rest that lost as a 4 or less point home favorite allowing 100 or more and scoring 90 or less have failed to cover over 85% long term vs an opponent that covered on the road like Washington and scored 100 or more. Play on the Wizards.
Don Anthony
Clippers vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +12.5
Going to take a shot here with the Lakers as they were crushed by their rivals, the Clippers, last night. I expect them to bounce back here as I don't see the Clippers going all out in this one. It's extremely tough to blow out the same team on consecutive nights. We've seen it happen all the time in these home-and-home games that the teams split. Although, I don't expect the Lakers to win this one, they should be able to keep it within single digits given the fact the the Clippers don't have much to play for (being locked into the #4 seed) and they have to travel to Utah after this game.
Scott Spreitzer
Pistons vs. Magic
Play: Magic -2
The pressure is certainly on the road team tonight as the Pistons look to hold off the Chicago Bulls for the 8th and final playoff spot in the east. Detroit leads the Bulls by two games. But Detroit will have to beat a suddenly hot Orlando squad looking to play the role of the spoiler. The Magic have won and covered four of their last five games, turning things up on the offensive end. Orlando has averaged 118.6 ppg in their last five contests, riding the hot play of Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier, and Victor Oladipo. Orlando has actually played a decent brand of basketball at home this season where they're 21-17 SU and have covered five in a row. I mentioned the uptick in Orlando's offensive tempo, something Detroit has struggled against. The Pistons have covered just eight of their last 26 against teams averaging at least 83 shots per game. The Magic fit the bill this season.
Mike Lundin
Nets vs. Wizards
Play: Under 208
The Washington Wizards are desperate for a win as three defeats in their last four games have seen them drop 3 1/3 games back of the eighth placed Pistons in the East. It think they'll play hard on defense to ensure beating the Brooklyn Nets Wednesday night.
The under is 18-8 in Wizards last 26 home games and 9-3-1 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Five of the past six meetings in the series have gone under the total and the Wizards won 111-96 at Brooklyn on Dec. 26 in the most recent meeting.
The Nets have found it extremely hard to motivate themselves offensively lately and have scored 87, 91 and 87 points in their last three games. Under is 4-1 in the Nets last five overall.
Marc Lawrence
Rockets vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +1½
Edges - Mavericks: 6-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins in this series, the last a DD victory; and 23-7-1 ATS home in division game during the final 6 games of the season. Rockets: 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS away during the final 6 games of the season. With the Mavs playing with double revenge and holding down the 7th spot in this year’s NBA playoff chase, one game ahead of Houston, we recommend a 1* play on Dallas.
Jim Feist
Pistons vs. Magic
Play: Under 209
A pair of teams tied for No. 17 in the NBA in points scored. Detroit is playing some defense down the stretch, and the offense is weak, No. 23 in field goal shooting and dead last in three throw shooting (66%). It's the second of a back to back spot for the Pistons, so they won't look to run, 8-2 under the total on the road. Orlando is home where they play their best defense, holding Indiana to 94 points in a win two games ago.
Art Aronson
Brooklyn at Washington
Prediction: Washington
It’s do-or-die for the Wizards, who will look to keep their playoff hopes alive with a convincing victory over the patch-work Nets. Brooklyn has been eliminated from postseason contention for quite some time, but Washington still has a mathematical shot, needing to win out its remaining games and also get some additional help. A date vs. the hapless Nets is just what the doctor ordered to keep their dreams alive, as Brooklyn has lost five straight by an average of 19.5 points. Promptly after losing 106-87 at New Orleans on Sunday, the team announced that it was shutting down starters Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young. Washington will look to take advantage of a Nets team that has allowed a league-worst 112.8 points per 100 possessions over its last ten games. This one means the world to the home side, we’ll highly recommend a second look at the Wizards in this matchup.
Jesse Schule
San Francisco vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +1.5 -147
We saw a pitcher's duel at Miller Park last night, as Jeff Nelson came out on the wrong end of a 2-1 loss opposite Johnny Cueto. We could see another close, low scoring game here in the series finale, with Taylor Jungmann making his season debut opposit Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija will be making his first start for the Giants since coming over from Chicago, and he didn't have a great showing this Spring. The right-hander was 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA in seven appearances. He did manage 21 strikeouts over 30 innings, which was encouraging, but he also gave up 20 hits and six home runs. Jungmann wasn't much better this Spring, but he was fantastic at Miller Park in his rookie season. He went 5-2 with a 2.21 ERA in nine starts in Milwaukee last year. He also has favorable day/night splits, going 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA in seven starts in the afternoon. Samardzija hasn't fooled the Brewers lineup, as Milwaukee has hit .342 over a combined 79 at bats. Ryan Braun has comletely owned him, going 10-for-20 lifetime with three home runs.
Cajun Sports
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -119
The Baltimore Orioles play host to the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday evening first pitch is set for 7:05 PM Eastern Time. The Twins and Orioles play the second of three after a weird off day on Tuesday. The Twins will send right hander Kyle Gibson to the bump on Wednesday. He had his best year of his short three-year career in 2015. He lowered his ERA by half of a run from his 2014 season ERA, although he could only manage to produce an 11-11 SU record. Gibson is not a strikeout pitcher with only 281 K’s in 425 major league innings. Gibson will need the Twins’ defense to play solid behind him when he is on the bump. The O’s will send new acquisition Yovani Gallardo to the hill for his first start. Gallardo is coming off a strong 2015 campaign with the Rangers. Baltimore is 5-0 their last five following a victory. The Orioles are 51-29 SU when playing at home off a victory in their last game. The Twins Gibson is 7-20 SU his last twenty-seven trips to the bump taking on a team with a winning record. Finally we note the Orioles when playing at home and facing a right-handed starter have posted a record of 62-30 SU.
Big Al
Seattle vs. Texas
Pick: Texas
The Rangers' leader in wins last season was surprisingly RH Colby Lewis with 17. And Lewis reached that mark despite an unsightly ERA of 4.66 in his 33 starts. This means that Lewis was obviously well supported and in fact he ranked second in run support in the American League with right around 5.8 runs scored per start. Lewis certainly hopes that incredible support continues this season, and there is no reason to think that it won't as the Rangers return pretty much the same lineup as they had in 2015. The Mariners will go with LH Wade Miley, who was extremely inconsistent last season in Boston, posting an 11-11 record and 4.46 ERA in 32 starts when all was said and done. Miley is hoping that his pitcher-friendly new home ballpark will help him improve this year, but that won't help him today, on the road in this hitters paradise in Arlington, TX. And he's making his M's debut in a park in which he is 0-2 with a 4.63 ERA in two career starts. The Rangers are 28-12 in their last 40 home games while the Mariners are 2-10 in their last 12 on grass.
James Manos
Cardinals at Pirates
Play: Cardinals
Back to the well with the Cardinals in this series. The Pirates have dominated this series so far but now with a chance to get the better organzition, and team, at a dog price we're interested. Leake does not have the upside that Nicasio has but he can eat innings and pitch well enough to keep his team in games. Nicasio shouldn't be a favorite here and we'll side with the value in Leake's St. Louis debut.
Nelly
Orlando Magic - over Detroit Pistons
Miami shot the lights out on Tuesday night to win by 18 hosting a Pistons team still clinging to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Chicago also lost last night to remain two games back but this looks like a dangerous game on a second straight night ahead of season-making home games with the Wizards and Heat coming up. Orlando looks ready to play spoiler, winning four of the last five with wins over three teams in the playoff picture and the Magic own a very respectable 21-16 home record with one of the NBA's strongest ATS records. Detroit is just 3-5 in the last eight road games as the strong March run that has Detroit in the postseason picture featured a long home stand. The Magic should be fresh coming off consecutive off days and the scoring for the Magic has been impressive with five straight games reaching 110 points, with Detroit held below 96 in each of the last five games. Detroit won by 16 in late March hosting the Magic as a six-point favorite, outshooting the Magic 54% to 40% to hide turnover and rebounding issues for the Pistons in this matchup. Orlando is actually 13-3 ATS this season as a favorite of fewer than five points and while a better showing from Detroit last night was expected this looks like a difficult follow-up spot for a team with an inflated recent run built on a home heavy month of March.
Wunderdog
San Francisco @ Milwaukee
Pick: San Francisco -134
San Francisco is off to a 2-0 start, looking like the postseason contender it is supposed to be. They've smoked the rebuilding Brewers by a 14-4 count in the first two games and go for the sweep today. They come off a 2-1 win last night as Brandon Crawford homered for the Giants and saved another run with a sharp defensive play. The Giants trot out another strong arm in newcomer Jeff Samardzija, off a dominating performance in his final spring training start. Milwaukee is 24-54 when their opponent scores two or fewer runs in their previous game, plus they are 12-28 against the National League West. Brewers' righty Taylor Jungmann walks too many batters (47 in 119 innings last year) and the team is now on a 1-10 run at home. The Giants are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, 5-0 in this park. Take the Giants.