SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +115 over CLEVELAND
Carlos Carrasco’s ERA doesn't show it, but he had a strong encore to his 2014 breakout. Carrasco handled innings pitched jump just fine and his high groundball rate and swing-and-miss stuff are now well-established. Carrasco hit the DL late in the year with a sore shoulder, but returned with 15.1 K’s/9 in September. It’s hard to find a flaw in these metrics but this isn’t about fading Carrasco as much as it is fading the Indians because this is a team in trouble.
The Indians may have the best starting pitching in the AL but you need more than pitching in this game to win consistently. Cleveland is a team that is going to struggle miserably to score runs and that makes them a big risk when spotting a tag. Have you seen this collection of stiffs? Rajai Davis leading off? Marlon Byrd, Jose Uribe and Collin Cowgill batting 7, 8 and 9 respectively? Carlos Santana in the middle? As a premier catching prospect in the minors, the Indians were expecting plenty of MLB success from Santana but that's yet to fully materialize in his six-year career. Now a full-time 1B/DH, Santana is coming off another ho-hum 2015 season and there is little hope for improvement because he has nothing but warts on his weak hitting profile. These current stiffs on the Tribe have scuffled against Clay Buchholz to the tune of a (.663 OPS) and with cold weather in the offing, it’s hard to imagine a lot of fireworks from them.
Buchholz had a good year in 2015, demonstrating all the assets that Boston has been waiting for, along with the obligatory injury (elbow this time) so Red Sox fans wouldn't enjoy it too much. You can see the evidence of skill throughout and Buchholz’s first-pitch strike rate validates his control gains (47 BB in 160 innings). The checklist: buy low, be pleasantly surprised.
It’s only one game in but we liked what we saw from Boston yesterday, that being an aggressive team that is loaded with speed. Boston’s young players (Bradley Jr, Xander Bogaerts, Travis Shaw, Brock Holt and Mookie Betts) all look ready to break out and have big years. They beat the Indians 6-2 in the opener and they’re likely to beat them again here.
Minnesota +106 (5 inning wager)
Because most of our wagers are based on the starting pitchers, we are going to play many of these games in five innings only. The Orioles are projected to have one of the better pens in the league also, which is just another reason to leave the pens out of this one. Yovani Gallardo’s career-best ERA last season suggests he rekindled his glory days but his career-worst xERA quickly refutes it. Gallardo lost another mph on his fastball (now -2.3 mph since 2011), while his meager swing and miss rate further supports his strikeout rate’s downward spiral. A repeat of last seasons’ ERA is slim to none and if his second half skills collapse is any indication, it’s going to get real ugly fast. This is one of the worst free agent signings of the season that is going to cost the Orioles games and a boatload of money. Gallardo will start his season (and Baltimore career) with a Camden Yards turn against a Twins squad that has hit him hard in the past (.346/.393/.519). That success and Gallardo’s spring (15 runs allowed in 13 IP) adds to the Twinkies appeal here.
Kyle Gibson has been a slow work in progress but this could finally be the year that this former first round pick puts it all together. Last season, Gibson gave the Twins plenty of what you hope to see from a young pitcher, which was cultivating swing-and-miss skills to augment his strong groundball profile (61%). Gibson’s swing and miss rate rose monthly as his slider and changeup produced more whiffs as the second half progressed. Gibson’s strikeout rate is still only "acceptable", but if he can pair it with his second half command, we could be looking at a 15-win pitcher with an ERA in the 3.50 range.
Houston +115 over N.Y. YANKEES
Michael Pineda was sailing along with a very nice spring in Tampa before being rocked in his final Grapefruit League turn. Pineda will face a solid Astros offense, one that can hit for some power and hit well against RHPs and perform well on the road. The Yankee right-hander yielded 16 jacks in 90 home innings a year ago. Pineda is a pitcher on our radar because he’s going to offer up some value down the road but that will be when he’s offered a price. We’ll elaborate on that when warranted but that doesn’t apply here. What we know for sure is that the Astros are the much better squad loaded with youth and talent while the Yankees are a veteran club with a slew of ugly contracts that are forcing them to use players that otherwise would be pinch hitters and utility players. The Yankees posted a league-worst .640 OPS in the spring.
Collin McHugh’s ERA slippage in 2015 now casts 2014 as a career year but there are four reasons why he should get back under a 3.50 ERA: 1) turned line-drives into grounders. 2) swing and miss stability and 2nd half K-rate recovery suggest he can hold 8.0+ K/9 tier. 3) First-pitch strike gains now confirm his solid control. 4) 2nd half dominant start/disaster start split shows a new level. Collin McHugh is a strong buy pitching for the Astronauts and we’re on it.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +115 over DETROIT
OT included. You certainly don’t need us to tell you that is playoff hockey. The Red Wings can secure a top-three Atlantic Division seed, a Wild-Card spot or end up watching the playoffs from home, depending on how they fare in their last three games against the Flyers, Bruins and Rangers.The Flyers, Bruins and Red Wings are in a tight battle for the final Wild Card, with Detroit and Philadelphia tied at 91 points. The Red Wings have won three of their past four games, all by one goal, against Buffalo, Minnesota and Toronto. In fact, the Red Wings have won 27 one-goal games this season so they are a bounce or deflection away in so many games from having one of the worst records in the NHL. The Red Wings continue to give up quality scoring chances in droves. In a huge game against Toronto on Saturday night, the Red Wings won 3-2 but were outshot 34-26 and did not deserve the victory. In two recent games against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Detroit went 0-2, was outscored 11-5 and was outshot 41-23 and 46-37 respectively. The three toughest games that the Red Wings have played over their last 10 (Tampa, Philly and Pittsburgh), they are 0-3 with a 6-2 loss and a 7-2 loss. The Red Wings have beaten up on the weak all year with the 24th ranked schedule in the league. Against top-10 competition, Detroit has 10 wins in 26 games and against top-16 competition they have 17 wins in 40 games.
The Flyers on the other hand have played the 12th ranked schedule in the league and they have more victories than Detroit against both top-10 and top-16 competition. Since mid-January, the Flyers have been one of the NHL’s hottest teams. Philadelphia had a three-game winning streak snapped Sunday with a 6-2 loss at Pittsburgh but everyone is losing to the Pens these days. What we are absolutely sure of is that the Flyers are in better form than Detroit. They are a better puck-possession team too. Steve Mason had gone 5-1-1 with a 1.67 GAA in his previous seven games prior to the Pens loss so he’s been more reliable than Jimmy Howard or Petr Mrazek. Lastly, Philadelphia is 13-4-2 in its last 19 games overall and they have also owned the Red Wings lately by winning the first two meetings this season for three in a row and six of seven. Can Detroit win here? Of course they can but there isn’t a single reason in the world not to bet the better team taking back a price.
Larry Ness
Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic
The 41-37 Detroit Pistons have failed to reach the playoffs for SIX straight seasons (matches a franchise record set from 1977-1983) but the team is close to ending that drought this season, as the Pistons are currently eighth in the Eastern Conference with a two-game advantage over idle ninth-place Chicago with four to play. Detroit can't clinch a playoff spot until at least Thursday at the earliest due to tiebreakers but the Pistons can at least clinch their first winning record in EIGHT seasons by beating the Magic in Orlando on Wednesday.
Detroit has owned Orlando lately, winning FIVE in a row SU and ATS, including both meetings this season by scores of 115-89 and 118-102. However, Detroit is facing an Orlando team which has wins and covers in FOUR of its last five, averaging a WHOPPING 118.6 PPG. "I think we're getting a lot of simple buckets, as in transition and finding the open man and getting good looks or getting open shots," said guard Victor Oladipo (16.1-4.8-4.0), who had 22 points Sunday. "We're just hitting shots at a high level right now. We just gotta continue to keep moving the ball, keep defending and let the defense create for the offense." Getting center Nikola Vucevic (18.0-8.9) back has certainly helped. He is averaging 23.7 points over the last three games after missing 13 with a right groin strain. Swingman Fournier (15.0) and PG Payton (10.6-6.3 APG) are also having solid years.
A trade-deadline deal sent Tobias Harris from Orlando to Detroit, with Harris fitting right in, averaging 16.7 & 6.2 in 24 games with the Pistons. PG Jackson (18.5-6.2 APG) is Detroit’s leading scorer plus center Andre Drummond leads the league with 14.8 rebounds per game, the highest average for the Pistons since Ben Wallace's league-leading 15.4 in 2002-03 (he chips in 16.5 PPG). The Pistons have dominated the Magic lately but this team is in uncharted territory (looking to secure a playoff berth), while the Magic are just having fun (note that 118.6 PPG average).
Power Sports
Houston vs. Dallas
Pick: Dallas
The latest odds favor the Rockets, and not the Mavs, making the playoffs in the Western Conference and given the remaining schedules for both, it's easy to understand why. But the fact is that Dallas actually rates as the better team in my book, making them a solid value at home tonight, plus the points, on ESPN.
The Mavs enter tonight w/ a one-game lead over the Rockets in the standings (In between the two is 8th place Utah). After being pretty terrible for much of March, Dallas has turned it around recently by winning four straight (3-1 ATS) and key to the turnaround has been holding those opponents to an average of 86 points per game. Any similar type effort here would be huge because as you know Houston is awful defensively; they are allowing 108.7 PPG on the road this season.
Now the Rockets are off an outright win (at home) over Oklahoma City on Sunday, another TV game, one that saw them prevail 118-110 (were +3.5) in a back and forth type affair. But they are just 4-8 ATS this season coming off a SU dog win and being favored here as the road team seems like dangerous territory considering a 17-27 ATS mark when laying points in any situation. They last posted consecutive victories on March 9th-11th. My own power rankings say the wrong team is favored here and I'm inclined to agree.
Teddy Davis
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
Play: Philadelphia +126
This is a great price to back the dog here with the Phillies. I actually believe they have the better pitcher in this game. Nola had a great rookie year last year going 6-2 with and ERA of 3.59 in 13 starts. Also take in to fact that he is on the Phillies it makes it more impressive to me. Brandon Finnegan is taking the mound for the Reds and his coming off a terrible spring where he in six games he had an ERA over 10! This is a live dog here tonight grab the Phillies at a great price.
Matt Fargo
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
Play: Philadelphia +126
Philadelphia lost the opener of this series on Monday as it blew a 2-1 lead by giving up five runs in the eighth inning. We will back the underdog in this matchup as these teams are pretty even all around and the home field edge is far from strong. Last season, Cincinnati finished with its worst record since 1982 at 64-98, while MLB-worst Philadelphia was just one game worse at 63-99. The bullpen let the Phillies down Monday and they are hoping to get another strong outing from their starter, this time from Aaron Nola. He had his Major League debut last year and was very solid as he went 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 13 starts. He had only two poor outings as nine of 13 starts resulted in allowing three runs or less, six of which he allowed one run or less. Brandon Finnegan counters for the Reds and while he was decent in a handful of starts for Cincinnati last season after coming over from Kansas City, he had a horrendous spring. He allowed six runs in each of his last two outings to post a 10.05 ERA over six starts. As mentioned, there is little home field advantage as going back to last season, the Reds are 7-23 in their last 30 home games.
Jimmy Boyd
Yankees -118
After dropping the opener yesterday, I look for the Yankees to bounce back and even up the series with a win tonight. Not only is this a great price to back New York at home, but I look for them to have an edge on the mound.
Houston will send out Collin McHugh, who is getting a lot of respect from the books after winning 19 games a season ago. What gets overlooked is McHugh's 4.09 ERA in 18 road starts. It's also worth nothing that McHugh didn't look good in spring training. He posted a 4.61 ERA and in his last start against the Brewers was shelled for 4 runs in just 5 innings of work. I'll take my chances that the Yankee's put up enough runs to spot Michael Pineda for the victory.
Jack Jones
Miami Marlins -147
The Miami Marlins started Wei-Yin Chen over Jose Fernandez on Opening Day against the Detroit Tigers yesterday. That isn't sitting well with Fernandez, who will be chomping at the bit to prove that he should have gotten the Opening Day start by shutting down the Detroit Tigers.
When healthy, Fernandez has been one of the most dominant starters in the game. He has gone 22-9 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.014 WHIP with 336 strikeouts in 289 innings over three big league seasons. He went 6-1 with a 2.92 ERA in limited action last year after returning from Tommy John surgery.
Anibal Sanchez is coming off an awful year in Detroit. He went 10-10 with a 4.99 ERA in 25 starts, including 3-6 with a 5.19 ERA in 10 road starts. Fernandez has yet to lose at home, going 17-0 with a 1.40 ERA in 26 career home starts.
Ray Monohan
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
Play: Philadelphia +123
The Phillies get set to take on the Reds Wednesday night and it's Phili who has value at plus money here. They'll send rookie Aaron Nola to the mound, a pitcher who had such great success in his 2015 campaign. Nola started 13 games last year and finished 6-2 and dominated down the stretch. Over his final 7 games, he allowed 1 run or less in 5 of those.
They'll be going up against a Reds team who did win on Monday, but they don't have many threats on their team offensively. Aside from Votto and Phillips this team isn't deep and lacks a lot of average. The Reds go with Brandon Finnegan, who is a turned starter from reliever. Finnegan doesn't have much starting experience and that will certainly be an issue with how far he can go in the game here.
Some trends to consider. Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Brandon Lee
White Sox vs. A's
Play: A's -127
After being forced to skip his first two starts with the flu, Sonny Gray is finally set to take the mound for the first time in 2016. Gray was one of the best starters last year and I look for him to come out strong to start this season. Oakland will also be extremely motivated to get a win here after dropping the first. The A's haven't started 0-3 in 20 years and I'm not expecting that streak to come to an end. Oakland won 5 of Gray's last 7 home starts including 4 straight against a team with a winning record.
Will Rogers
Detroit vs. Miami
Play: Miami -145
The Miami Marlins rallied to score three runs in the bottom of the ninth to force extra-innings against the Tigers last night, but Detroit went on to win by a score of 8-7. The Fish send their ace to the mound here today though, and I think they have an excellent chance of avenging last night's defeat. My money is on Miami.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - To say that Jose Fernandez has been good at home would be an understatement of epic proportions. He's 17-0 with a 1.40 ERA in Miami since 2013. He started just six games at home last year, going 5-0 with a 2.57 ERA. The Tigers will hope that former Marlin Anibal Sanchez can bounce back from a brutal showing in 2015, as he was just 10-10 with a 4.99 ERA last year. He was particularly bad on the road, going 3-6 with a 5.19 ERA in 10 starts.
2. Giancarlo Stanton - The 26 year old hit a two-run homer in yesterday's game, and his numbers at Marlins Park over the last three seasons are just ridiculous. He's hit 88 home runs over the last three year, and 52 of those came at home.
3. X-Factor - The Tigers are 1-5 in their last six inter-league games versus a right-handed starter.
Bill Biles
Rockets / Mavs Under 208.5
This should be a great game to watch. Both these teams are battling each other for a playoff spot and this game is huge for the standings. I expect a close game throughout and for it to have a playoff feel. Since this will have a playoff feel scoring wont be as easy to come by for these to teams so take the under.
Dave Price
Brooklyn Nets +14
The Washington Wizards are essentially eliminated from playoff contention now after losing 5 of their last 7 games coming in. They had a realistic shot of making the postseason before this run, but now they are 3.5 games back of the No. 8 seed with 5 games to play. They know they squandered their chance, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight because of it. That's why they have no business being 14-point favorites over the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets are 29-16 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days rest.
Drew Martin
Los Angeles at San Diego
Play: Los Angeles -130
Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda will make his major league debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers today as they close out their series against San Diego. The Padres will send Andrew Cashner to the hill in hopes of avoiding the sweep. The Dodgers outscored the Padres 18-0 the first two games of the series.
The Padres only managed one hit and a total of only two base runners through seven innings against Clayton Kershaw on Opening Day. They didn’t fare much better last night against Scott Kazmir who held San Diego to just one base runner through six innings of work. Maeda was an elite arm in the Japan Central League for eight years, only twice logging an ERA north of 2.60. He is already being compared to Seattle’s Hisashi Iwakuma, with scouts stating, “Maeda will succeed where most Japanese pitchers have not in the transition to American baseball by maintaining his low walk rate. His command is really impressive, and even when his stuff isn’t at its peak he can get guys out with superior location.” He posted a 15-8 record with a 2.09 ERA last year playing for the Hiroshima Carp.
Cashner has not fared well against the Dodgers with an .871 career OPS against and there have been rumblings his stuff during spring training wasn’t sharp. San Diego’s lineup is built to hit lefties but as we saw the last two games, the offense is limited. Tonight they face a right-hander who they’ve obviously never seen. Foreign pitchers often have a big advantage the first time through the league. We’ll support Maeda at the modest road chalk price.
Dwayne Bryant
Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -2.5
Double same-season revenge for the Magic, as they lost both earlier meetings this season. But those two were in Detroit with Orlando being in a "third road game in four nights" scenario both times. Tonight, it's the Magic that is rested, while the Pistons lost in Miami last night.
Detroit also has the added pressure of trying to secure the East's #8 playoff spot. Orlando has no such pressure.
Brandon Jennings was a Piston when Detroit beat the Magic the first time this season, scoring 17 points in the win. Jennings is a member of the Magic now.
Center Nikola Vucevic missed Orlando's most recent loss in Detroit, but he is back now and playing well.
The Magic have been playing better at home, and the situation looks solid for the Magic to avoid the season sweep.