Harry Bondi
LA LAKERS +9.5 over LA Clippers
Yesterday we "won ugly" with Philadelphia and tonight we will back another "ugly" team in the LA Lakers. Clippers have won 10 straight over the Lakers and crushed them last night 103-81. But I don't know why the Clippers would be interested in pounding Kobe and company again tonight, especially after last nights win locked them into the Western Conference's No. 4 seed. In addition, its Kobe's second to last game at the Staples Center test and the Clippers fly out to Utah after tonight's games. I expect Doc Rivers to rest give his regulars a lot of rest and maybe not even play Blake Griffin and Paul Pierce. Let's "win ugly" agin tonight take the Lakers.
Bob Balfe
Indians/Red Sox Over 7.5
I am not the biggest fan of Clay Buchholz pitching so when ever we get a low total I love the over plays, but this has more to do with the wind blowing tonight straight out of the ball park. The temps are not as cold tonight either so the ball will travel more and even routine balls could get caught up in this wind. These conditions are brutal for pitchers that lose any control they have. Look for both teams to plate the runs to send this to a high scoring game.
SPORTS WAGERS
To win the Masters
Paul Casey 79/1
Casey has been somewhat of a sporadic player both during his 2016 season as well as with his Masters performances. He has made it to the weekend in 7-of-8 attempts on the year, but has yet to crack the top-five after getting into the top-three four times in 24 outings last year. Paul has also failed to make the cut in two of his last five visits to this major, but is now coming off a few big days in 2015 when he finished in sixth behind a score of nine-under as he hit better than 67% of GIR (greens in regulation) and fairways. His length off the tee (296.5 yards per, 52nd on TOUR) certainly won’t hurt him this week, and the yardage he may lose to some of the elite mashers out there is made up for with his incredible ball striking. He is currently 10th in GIR% (72.22%) and has gained 0.921 strokes from tee-to-green (19th on TOUR) over his eight 2016 tournaments. That alone should give him an opportunity to put up some big numbers and if the putts are dropping it could be a nice finish for him.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello 110/1
Cabrera-Bello has been quickly making himself a household name with a stretch of strong performances on the PGA TOUR. He’s played on the TOUR a mere three times this season, but has placed in a tie for 11th or better each time with an 11th at the WGC-Cadillac Championship, a third at the WGC-Dell Match Play, and then a fourth place finish last week in Houston. The 31-year-old will be making his Masters debut but has participated in 10 majors in the past, going 6-for-10 in cuts made with his best showing coming at the 2013 Open Championship where he earned a tie for 21st. Over his three events in the U.S. this year, the Spaniard has been able to hit 70.83% of GIR and is better than most with the flat iron, gaining 0.676 strokes putting. Cabrera-Bello has shot up the world rankings to 33rd place and could be a dangerous under-the-radar-choice here.
Jimmy Walker 76/1
Walker was a late bloomer, but he has been borderline dominant at points over the past few years. His solid overall play has also translated to some great finishes in majors and the now 37-year-old earned top-10s at three of the four big events during the 2014 campaign; including a tie for eighth at The Masters that year. He has earned all five of his career victories since late 2013, and although none have come during this season, he has gone 9-for-10 in cuts made with three top-10s. His combo of power off the tee (299.6 yards per, 38th on TOUR) and putting (0.448 strokes-gained putting, 33rd on TOUR) give him an advantage over most in both areas and his all-around game will go far on this Augusta course. Walker is not often talked about with some of the other elite players, but he should get more credit for how well he has done—at these odds Jimmy is a great choice this week.
Bill Haas 115/1
Haas is backing up his top-30 OWGR ranking with a spot as the 25th-best in the FedExCup standings to this point in the season. The 33-year-old has four top-10s in his nine 2016 starts and has been playing some of his best golf of late with a playoff loss in the Valspar Championship and a tie for ninth in the WGC-Dell Match Play just a few weeks ago. He also has done better in The Masters than some of the other majors, getting a top-25 in each of his last three visits to the famous course while making it to the weekend in each of the last six years. Haas has improved his standing each time out since 2011 and had his best to date in 2015 with a tie for 12th behind four rounds at par or better. He currently ranks in the top-40 in driving accuracy (67.26%, 31st on TOUR), GIR (69.64%, 39th on TOUR), total strokes gained (0.796, 35th on TOUR) and scrambling (66.01%, 12th on TOUR) which should allow him to get out of most sticky situations. Look for Haas to make a run at his first top-10 in a major and quite possibly more this week.
Bruce Marshall
Houston at Dallas
Pick: Under
Crucial game in West playoff chase though we believe the real edge in this game might be on the "totals" side. Especially with Dallas playing lower-scoring games the past ten days sicne Virginia rookie Justin Anderson has been put into the lineup and helped the Mav defensive presence. Dallas games are well "under" four ina row since and expect the same tonight at Toyota Center.
Darryl Tucholski
Thunder vs. Blazers
Play: Thunder +3
OKC held their entire rotation under 30 minutes in their last game as they gear up for the playoffs. Expect that trend to continue, but they will still cover tonight. The Blazers have won 5 of their last 6. The Blazers will hit a wall tonight, they are not as aggressive in the post. The last game against the Thunder, they were out-rebounded 52-39. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Scott Rickenbach
Astros vs. Yankees
Play: Under 7½
Yesterday's game snuck over the total and burned me with my Premium Pick on the under. Early in a new season it is important to take notes from the things that happen and react properly. In this case, yesterday's game had no business getting over the total but a fluke play in the 8th inning opened up the floodgates on a game that, prior to the fluke, was destined to be a 3-2 game. Miraculously the game ended up with 8 runs even though the teams combined for just 10 hits. This is helping to give some line value today as this line has moved up from a 7 to a 7.5 even though it will again be a chilly game in the Bronx. The pitchers should enjoy plenty of success tonight as McHugh has one of the best curveballs in the game and can use that to keep the Yankees hitters off balance and Pineda has a hard slider with plenty of tilt that will fluster the Astros sticks in this one. Pineda is a true power pitcher and gives the Astros a tough match-up after facing Tanaka's offerings yesterday which feature more "hooks" than "heat". Pineda will keep the Astros off-balance and McHugh won 19 games for the Astros last season. These guys can turn this one into a pitchers' duel. For those of you that like "interesting" trends, the Yankees have played 50 Wednesday games the past two seasons and only 18 of those went over. As for the Astros, when off of a win (159 last two seasons), an over resulted in the next game just 68 of 159 times! These teams both have solid bullpens.
Vegas Butcher
St Louis Cardinals -102
Through 15 spring-training innings, Nicasio has registered 24K’s, 5 BB’s, and has allowed 0 ER’s. If only it was that easy. When he was turned into a reliever last year, Nicasio did pretty well. Actually as a reliever he has a 25% K-rate with a 3.4 FIP. As a starter though, his K-rate is only 17% and his FIP is 4.4, a full run higher. He’s not pitching at Coors anymore, which should help, but the point is that I’ll believe it when I see during games that count if he’s really turned the corner. I’m betting on NO. Leake is a solid starter, who will face a right-heavy lineup of the Pirates tonight. I like this chances of a solid outing and I’ll back the Cards in this one.
Brad Wilton
Wednesday comp play winner is the Pistons plus the basket at the Magic.
Detroit may have dropped 3 of their last 5 heading into this one, but the Pistons have reeled off 5 straight series wins and covers over Orlando dating back to 2014.
Orlando has been playing "spoiler" of late, as the Magic have won 4 of their last 5 games - 3 of them coming against teams in playoff contention - but that will only serve to keep the Pistons focused on the task at hand.
Detroit is currently holding down the last playoff spot in the East, so do not expect their skid to continue tonight, as they look to punch their ticket to the postseason.
Series numbers move to 6 in a row both straight up and against the spread as Detroit dumps Orlando one more time.
3* DETROIT
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Yankees over the Astros.
Middle game of this opening week three game set, and I expect Michael Pineda to step up big for New York in tonight's contest.
The Yankees were right there yesterday with Houston until the bullpen imploded in the 8th inning.
Tonight New York's bats fare better against Colin McHugh who won 19 games last season for the 'Stros. I doubt McHugh is going to duplicate those numbers this season, and his 4.61 ERA this spring suggests as much.
Houston has won 4 straight versus New York in the Bronx, and I have to believe the Yankees are simply due for a win at home over the Astros.
Play on New York.
1* N.Y. YANKEES
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is the over in the Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles contest in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
PITCHING NOTE: Every Run Line/Total play will list pitchers with the starting pitchers scheduled to go at the time of the wager. And tonight I am emphatic about who is starting for both teams. Thus, be sure that Kyle Gibson and Yovani Gallardo are the pitchers of record when making your play. If either one or these pitchers is not going, disregard this play.
It's cut and dry here, as I think both hurlers are about to have rough starts to their respective seasons.
Gibson, who was Minnesota's most consistent starter last season, posted a 3.84 ERA in a team-leading 32 starts. Yet he's been rewarded as the club's No. 2 starter. I understand the philosophy, as he's lined up to start in the home opener on April 11, but I also think he's going to get rocked in this one, now that the Orioles got the cobwebs out Monday in a 3-2 win, and had a day off yesterday.
Meanwhile, Gallardo will make his debut at Camden Yards today versus the Twins. He signed to a two-year deal with an option, and while it's easy to argue the right-hander has been a consistent force in the big leagues, he's also become a journeyman and his scouting report is getting passed around more than a hooker in Vegas on fight night. The Twins should chase him early.
He will struggle in this one.
3* Twins/Orioles Over