Free Picks for Tuesday, Wednesday, December 14th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Spreitzer
Wisc-Milwaukee vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio -15
Most expected this to be a tough season for a Milwaukee team that finished 20-13 a season ago. HC Rob Jeter left to become an assistant at UNLV and former Michigan assistant LaVall Jordan was named the Panthers' new coach. Jordan was faced with putting together and entirely new starting five. Three of last year's starters transferred and two graduated. They're hurting badly on the defensive end, allowing opponents to make 48% of their 3-pointers, among other issues. This plays right into Ohio's strength, which is deep perimeter shooting. The Bobcats rank 19th in the nation, making 41% of their treys and we note Milwaukee has covered just 4 of their last 19 against teams that make at least 37% of their 3-pointers. Ohio suffered a tough loss last time out, but we expect the Bobcats to bounce right back into the win column with a spread-covering win tonight.
Ben Burns
Pacers +1½
The Pacers have yet to win three in a row this season but they should have an excellent shot at accomplishing that feat on Wednesday. Off back-to-back victories, the Pacers (13-12) have climbed back above the .500 mark. I played on them in their last game and I believe that they're better than their record indicates. They've got a number of winnable games against Eastern Conference opponents coming up, which provides an opportunity to gain some ground before the year closes out.
While the Pacers typically aren't as good on the road, Miami has been one of the less intimidating venues in the league this season. Even off a rare win last time out, the banged-up Heat are still only 3-8 here, 0-2 SU/ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points. Note that they're also just 2-5 SU/ATS when coming off a victory this season, 1-4 SU/ATS when off an "upset" victory and 1-5 SU/ATS after scoring 105 or more points.
The Pacers are 6-2 ATS against the Heat the past couple of seasons. If they're serious about being a team that challenges in the East this season, this is the type of game they need to win.
Ricky Tran
Lightning vs. Flames
Play: Flames -116
Recent Games: The Flames are going for a seventh consecutive win while the Lightning have dropped seven of their last eight games.
Johnny Gaudreau: The Flames forward has eight points in four games since getting back in the lineup following an injury.
Most Recent Meeting: Calgary defeated Tampa Bay 3-1 here at the Saddledome on Dec. 1 in the last matchup between the two teams.
Bob Harvey
Los Angeles at Brooklyn
Play: Over 227½
The Los Angeles Lakers look to snap a seven-game losing streak when they visit the Brooklyn Nets. Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center where Brooklyn is favored by -1. The total is 227.5.LA earned a 104-98 win at Brooklyn last season as D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle combined for 30 points.
The Lakers (10-17, 11-15-1 ATS) were on the wrong of a rout on Monday, falling 116-92 in Sacramento 116-92. D’Angelo Russell missed 11 games with a knee injury before returning in Sunday's 118-112 loss to the Knicks and was strong enough to play on the second night of a back-to-back on Monday. He delivered 17 points on 6 of 10 shooting in 20 minutes against the Kings.
The Nets (6-17, 12-10-1 ATS) have dropped 12 of its last 14 overall including a 122-118 loss at Houston on Monday. There was one positive- the return of Jeremy Lin who had 10 points and seven assists in 20 minutes off the bench after missing the last 17 games with a hamstring injury. Brooke Lopez scored 26 points on 9 of 17 shooting but had just one rebound in Monday's loss.
The Lakers are 2-0-2 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 11-2-3 in the past 16 meetings in Brooklyn.
Tonight’s game is proof that it doesn’t have to be a marquee matchup, to be a solid moneymaking opportunity.
Don’t expect much in the way of defense. The Lakers are allowing 111.1 points per game (27th) while the Nets are last in the NBA allowing 115.6 points per game. On the flip side, both teams can score in bunches. Brooklyn is 9th with an average of 106.5 per game while LA is 13th at 104.7 ppg.
Those statistics would point to a shootout tonight in Brooklyn and why I recommend a play on the over.
Mike Lundin
Lakers vs. Nets
Play: Nets -120
The reeling LA Lakers have dropped seven straight games, and I don't like their chances of ending that skid as they travel east to take on the Nets at Brooklyn Wednesday night. The Nets are coming off back-to-back losses at San Antonio and Houston, but they played the Rockets hard at Houston on Monday losing by just four points as a 13.5-point underdog. Point guard Jeremy Lin returned from a hamstring injury and collected 10 points and seven assists in 20 minutes off the bench, a nice boost for the Nets after him missing the last 17 games.
The Lakers are just 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall while the Nets have covered the spread in four of their last five.
Jim Feist
Pacers at Heat
Pick: Under
Indiana is 20-8 under the total after a spread win, plus 7-3 under playing on one day of rest. Miami plays its best defense at home and the team is 12-5 under the total when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Andrew Lange
UL-Lafayette at Georgia
Play: Over 152.5
UL-Lafayette is one of the more talented mid-major teams in the country offensively led by the trio of Bryce Washington (15.3 ppg), Frank Bartley (19.1 ppg) and Jay Wright (14.5 ppg). And what I like best about the Ragin Cajuns is most of their point production comes from 2-pointers and the free throw line. When mid-major teams that rely heavily on the three-point shot go on the road to face power conference competition, the offense is vulnerable to struggles. Head coach Bob Marlin's attacking style is proven capable against a better class of opponents. Last season against Miami (FL), Alabama, and UCLA, ULL scored 77, 93, and 80 respectively. To open up 2016, they had difficulty knocking down shots at Minnesota but still posted 74 points thanks to a fast pace and 30 free throw attempts. From a totals perspective, Georgia has always been tough to figure under Mark Fox. Some games the Bulldogs will run up and down and score while others are low scoring fist fights. Earlier this season they faced UNC Asheville and Furman; two somewhat similar teams pace and ability wise. Against Asheville, UGA won 60-46 and three nights later topped Furman 84-78. And I do worry about the rust factor with Georgia not having played in 10 days. But tonight's opponent sets up well for a fast-paced game and the home side to top 80 points. ULL has played a very soft schedule (309th SOS) and is still allowing nearly 40% from three and 54% from two. I would prefer 149 but still feel the current market price to be playable.
Vegas Butcher
Charlotte Hornets Pk
I’ve backed the Hornets a few times off a ‘losing streak’ and they haven’t disappointed. Going to do it again here. They are simply a better team in this matchup. Washington doesn’t beat many teams that are superior to them. Their wins lately have come against PHX, ORL, SAC, BKN, DEN, and MIL. None of those teams are the caliber of the Hornets. The biggest factor is on D, where Charlotte ranks 4th while Washington is 22nd. I expect the Hornets to avoid a 3-game losing streak after tonight’s game.
Ken Lowden
Raptors vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +8½
The 76ers are beginning to play great basketball as of late and are getting too many points in this matchup against a Toronto team who hasn't beaten a team on the road by more than 7 points since the 23rd of November.
Scott Rickenbach
Raptors vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +9
The 76'ers SU record this season is certainly still "ugly" but this is a nice spot for them. Not only has Philly won back to back games, they also have covered 8 of their last 12 at the betting window. They continue to be undervalued and Joel Embiid, a key big man for Philadelphia, is listed as probable for tonight's match-up. The Sixers catch the Raptors off of a big win over Milwaukee and Toronto has a big game with Atlanta on deck. Both the Bucks and Hawks are perceived as more "dangerous" opponents than the 76'ers so it's rather easy for the Raptors to overlook this game at Philadelphia. After all, Toronto has won all 9 games (and covered 7 of them) against the 76'ers the last 3 seasons combined. Most of the wins have come by huge double digit margins. You can bet (literally!) that the Sixers want some revenge tonight for those embarrassing losses. Overall, as a road fave of 6.5 to 9 points, the Raptors are on a long-term run of 7-11 ATS. The Sixers are 10-5 ATS at home this season and they've had two off days to prepare for this one. Philly will be rested and ready.
Jimmy Boyd
Celtics +7½
I like the value here with Boston catching a decent number here on the road against the Spurs in a prime time matchup on ESPN. The Celtics come in having lost their last two, but were competitive in both, losing by just 7 to the Raptors and 3 at OKC. They are going to be primed for a big time effort here to avoid their third straight loss and will also have some revenge on their mind from a recent 103-109 loss at home to the Spurs back on 11/25.
San Antonio is doing what they do, as they come in having gone 14-2 in their last 16, but I think this is going to prove to be a bit of a flat spot for them. The Spurs only game in the last 5 days was a 29-point blowout win over the Nets, as they have had a full 3 days off. I look for them to come out rusty here against a motivated Boston team.
San Antonio has struggled to cover at home against quality team, as they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 after a SU win by more than 10 points and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference. Celtics on the other hand are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Will Rogers
Boston vs. San Antonio
Pick: Boston
The set-up: The only surprising thing about San Antonio’s 19-5 start is the fact that the Spurs have struggled at the AT&T Center, going 6-4 (Spurs are an amazing 13-1 on the road). The Spurs welcome the 13-11 Boston Celtics to San Antonio tonight with the Celtics arriving having lost 10 straight to the Spurs dating to the 2010-11 campaign.
Boston: The Celtics come to San Antonio off back-to-back losses, 101-94 at home to Toronto on Dec. 9 and 99-96 at Oklahoma City on Sunday, a game in which the Celtics led in the final minutes but let it get away. "That's a frustrating loss, because we played really hard on the defensive end for most of the night," Celtics coach Brad Stevens said of loss against the Thunder. "We had critical turnovers throughout the game. We screwed up a few coverages throughout the course of the night, but not very many." The Celtics finally have center Horford (15.6 & 6.3) and SF Crowder 913.2 & 4.9) back healthy, pairing with the team’s excellent backcourt duo of Thomas (26.0 & 6.1 APG) and Bradley (17.9), who is also the team's leading rebounder at 7.5 per game.
San Antonio: The Spurs head into the contest against Boston off a 130-101 romp over the Brooklyn Nets in which San Antonio led by at least 13 points over the final 2 1/2 quarters. The Spurs established season-highs for points in a game, points in a quarter (41, in the first), assists (38) and 3-point baskets 14 (out of 26 attempted). It was just the 11th time all season that the Spurs' preferred starting five -- Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge at forward, Tony Parker and Danny Green at guard and Pau Gasol at center -- played together. Leonard (24.7 & 6.0) and Aldridge (16.5 & 6.7) have established themselves as the “Bigf 2” but Gasol (11.6 & 7.3) and reserve guard Mills (11.6) have been steady all season. The Spurs would love to see Parker (9.5 & 4.6 APG) and Green (7.3) stay healthy and begin contributing more.
The pick: I mentioned at the top that the Celtics have lost 10 in a row to the Spurs and I’ll add that since Feb. 11, 1992 the Spurs are 38-9 against the Celtics. However, this has not been a typical year for the Spurs, who are just 3-7 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a profitable 9-4-1 ATS on the road.
Dave Essler
Niagara/Youngstown St. Over 156
Yes, it's a lot of points and in games with these smaller schools anything can, and often does, happen. With that in mind a game in the 60's is possible, as is one of these teams getting to 90. Obviously I think the latter has a better chance of happening. Youngstown will push the pace and as the home team has a better than average chance of controlling it, so there's that. These two played to 158 last year at Niagra - and this season Niagra's offense is better and their defense is worse. Youngstown's defense has been far worse this season. From a matchup perspective neither team has been turning the ball over and neither team has been creating them, meaning we should see more meaningful possessions. Niagra has been getting to the line a fair bit, and shoot 75% from it. That's a good thing, especially given that Youngstown's interior defense has been bad, so Niagra should attack that, even being undersized. Niagra's interior defense (in conjunction with their size here) hasn't been stout, and Y-State also shoots well from the line. So, we're relying on the defense sucking more than the offense being great - and if Y-State can grab some missed shots, they'll run. That "if" is because they haven't been - so like last nights' free winner, this is just another one with more chances to get there than not.
David Banks
Boston @ San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio -7.5
The Celtics big excitement last week was a bomb threat that had targeted the team’s plane. It was found out to be a complete hoax. Boston made it safely to Oklahoma City where they faced the Thunder on Sunday night. The Celtics are 13-10 (as of Sunday) and hold the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference standings. A win at San Antonio on Wednesday would be a big feather in the Celtics’ cap.
The Spurs are now 19-5, the second-best record in the Western Conference. They have won five of their last six games including a 130-101 win over Brooklyn on Saturday night. Leading scorer Kawhi Leonard dropped in 30 points in the win. Leonard averages 24.7 points per game to lead the team. LaMarcus Aldridge adds 16.5 points and 6.7 rebounds per game for the Spurs, one of the NBA’s best defensive teams. San Antonio gives up 97.8 points a game, fourth-lowest in the league.
The two teams met Nov. 25 in Boston. Leonard led the Spurs to a 109-103 win by scoring 25 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. Guard Patty Mills added 19 points for the winners. The two teams shot fairly well – San Antonio hit 46.9 percent of its shots, Boston 46.2 – but the Spurs out-rebounded Boston 55-42. If that happens again, the Celtics will be in for another long night.