Wunderdog
Chicago State @ Northwestern
Pick: Chicago State +26.5
Chicago State is playing its first lined game of the season. The team is getting a ton of points, even though the Cougars lost by just two points to Saint Louis on Sunday (45-43) as both team shots nearly 34 percent from the field. Trayvon Palmer led Chicago State with 16 points while the Billikens' leading scorer had only 11 points. Northwestern has won four straight after beating New Orleans on Sunday as Nathan Taphorn led the Wildcats with 18 points and Scottie Lindsey added 16 points. Vic Law leads the Wildcats with a 15.7 scoring average followed by Lindsey with 15.4 points per game. Chicago State actually finished last season 4-1-1 ATS in non-conference games and Northwestern has Dayton on deck on Saturday. Grab the big points with Chicago State.
Buster Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder +7
The OKC Thunder play their last game of their quick two games in two nights road trip in Utah tonight. OKC got manhandled last night by Portland and seemed a bit disinterested in the game being down 90-65 late in the 3rd quarter and eventually losing 114-95. Russell Westbrook only scored 20 points well off of his 31.1 season average. As for the Jazz they are in the midst of a 5 game homestand but haven't played since Saturday night. They have won 4 out of their last 5 games but we believe the break will give OKC a jump on them from the start tonight. The oddsmaker has this line at 7 at the time of this writing and we are more than happy to take the points with the underdog here, who we believe will be ready to play tonight after throwing in a bad one last night. OKC has won the last 4 games OR over the Jazz, which just adds to the backing of our selection.
Scott Rickenbach
Sacramento at Houston
Play: Houston -9.5
The Rockets are off of a non-covering win versus Brooklyn Monday. The significance in this is the fact that it was the 25th game for Houston this season and they have yet to have back to back ATS losses. Every time the Rockets have come off of an ATS loss they have covered their next game and I look for that trend to improve on the 7-0, 100% ATS mark on the season with another cover tonight. Houston is 9-2 ATS against teams with a losing record this season and they also have gone 11-2 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The Kings are off of a rare win as they had lost 5 of their 6 prior games. The rare victory sets Sacramento up perfectly to get blown out here. When the Kings are off of a win by 10 points or more this season, they have gone 0-4 ATS! Also, in December games the past 3 seasons, Sacramento is on a combined 9-23 ATS run. Note the perfect trends above combine to make this an 11-0, 100% perfect ATS spot to play on the Rockets and against the Kings.
Bruce Marshall
Brooklyn -1.5
Lake Show won shootout by 7 over Brooklyn at Staples Center on Nov. 15, but that was when LA was in a nice groove and when D'Angelo Russell (scored 32 that night) and Nick Young were still in the starting lineup. Both Russell and Young have returned from injuries but Lakers slipped alarmingly in interim and were flattened on Monday at Sacto even with Russell and Young back in the lineup. Defense has collapsed in LA during 7-game losing streak.
Brett Atkins
Wednesday comp play goes late-night tonight on the UCLA Bruins to blowout the Gauchos of Cal Santa Barbara.
This one should get out of control early, as the Gauchos are just 1-6 this season and the lone win comes against Sonoma State. Cal Santa Barbara is winless against the spread thus far in their lined games, failing all 5 against the spread.
UCLA continues to be a wrecking ball, as Steve Alford has his team off to a 10-0 start, with 8 covers in their 10 wins. As long as the Bruins stay focused, this one should be no-contest, as they did win and cover against Cal Santa Barbara back in 2013 as the double-digit home favorite.
The high-octane Bruins get the job done minus the big number.
Lay it!
4* UCLA
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 17-7 run with free picks, as I jump into the NBA for Wednesday's free pick, after hitting the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Memphis Grizzlies last night.
My free winner for tonight is on the Miami Heat laying the cheap number against the visiting Indiana Pacers.
As frustrating as this Heat team has been all season, you can't hold the rash of injuries it's had against it. And this team is in fact getting healthier. Justise Winslow is listed as out, but I've got insiders telling me he may still play tonight against the Pacers.
Miami is in after a 112-101 home win over the Washington Wizards two nights back, and so there might be a spark of momentum to feed off of here.
Couple that with the fact the Pacers have a history of enjoying Miami nights a little too much when they come to town, and the Heat might be catching their guests at the right time. Add in Indy has traveled a lot this month and it may have been looking forward to this trip "to unwind."
I know Indiana has won two in a row, but its defense has softened up a little, allowing 111 points in two of its last three and an average of 112.1 points over its last seven games.
I'll cautiously take Miami here.
1* HEAT
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Hump Day is on the Houston Rockets, who should blast the Sacramento Kings in a mismatch of Western Conference foes.
Houston is looking for its eighth straight victory, after knocking off the Brooklyn Nets on Monday. The Rockets have looked good since mid-November, when their 12-2 run began with a 126-109 win over the Trail Blazers.
Along the way, the Rockets went into Sacramento and won 117-104 on Nov. 25. That's a 13-point win, in Sactown, over these same Kings. Now the Rox are are at home, for a third straight game, and rolling.
The Kings arrive after blasting the struggling Los Angeles Lakers on Monday, but this is also Sacramento's eighth road game in 10 contests, since Nov. 27. Let me do the math for you: eight roadies in 18 days.
The Kings have gone from Brooklyn, Washington D.C., Philly, Boston, New York City, Dallas, home for the Knicks, Salt Lake City, back for the Lakers and now to Houston for the start of a three-game junket.
Sacto is too tired. Houston will roll.
2* ROCKETS
Brad Wilton
Comp play release for Wednesday is Boston plus the points in their game at San Antonio.
The Celtics are the type of team that plays to their level of competition, so expect Brad Stevens' team to take this one down to the wire.
San Antonio is looking for their 20th win of the season tonight, and they should get it since they are a perfect 10-0 straight up the last 10 times they have faced the C's, but Coach Popp's team is on a 2-5 spread slide their last 7 games played, and the Spurs are also just 2-7 against the spread their last 9 at home in this series against the Celts.
Boston to keep it inside of the impost tonight.
2* BOSTON
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets going Over tonight, as I'm banking on both defenses to continue their struggling ways.
Since Nov. 13, the Lakers have allowed 114.2 points over 17 games. And since Nov. 14, the Nets have allowed 111.0 points over 14 games.
The Lakers come into this one havong gone over in five of six, while the Nets have soared in five straight against Pacific Division champs and four of five at home.
Brooklyn has also gone over in 20 of 28 at home, so it will force a fast-paced game and the Lakers will respond.
Play this one high.
5* Lakers/Nets Over
Brandon Lee
Pistons -5.5
I believe the fact that Detroit is just 5-9 on the road is playing into this line not being larger and thus creating some value here on the Pistons. Detroit has been much better on the road of late, winning 4 of their last 5. The key here is the Pistons are going to take the floor looking to make a statement after an ugly 22-point loss at home to the 76ers. Dallas comes in off a 20-point home win, but simply can't be trusted with their injury issues. The Mavs are 4-14 in their last 18 games for a reason. As for the Pistons, they are starting to turn the corner and a big reason for that is the return of point guard Reggie Jackson. This team is simply better than they are getting credit for right now.
Dave Price
Sacramento Kings +9.5
The time to fade the Houston Rockets is now. They have won a season-high 7 straight games coming in. They started showing signs of being overvalued last game as they only won by 4 as 13.5-point favorites over the Nets. Now they are laying 9.5 points to a more talented team in the Kings here. The Kings are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 116-92 home victory over the Lakers on Monday. Sacramento is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 road games off a home win against a division opponent. Houston is 14-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Kings are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia 76ers +8.5
The Philadelphia 76ers come into this game playing their best basketball of the season. They have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They only lost to Memphis by 5 as 7.5-point road dogs, while beating New Orleans by 11 as 6-point road dogs and Detroit by 18 as 12-point road dogs.
Now the 76ers are rested and ready to go tonight. This will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. They will also be motivated because they just lost to the Raptors 95-122 on the road on November 28th. But that was an awful spot for the 76ers as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They had just played Cleveland the night before, too.
Toronto is about as overvalued as it is going to be all season. That's because the Raptors have not only won nine of their last 10 games overall, but they have also gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games. The betting public is all over this team now, which is why they are laying a hefty 8.5 points on the road here.
The Raptors are 32-54 ATS in their last 86 games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games. The 76ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Brandon Shively
Western Kentucky vs. St. Mary's
Play: Under 135
Western Kentucky is a team that is going to play defense under new coach Rick Stansbury. He teaches defense and teaches his kids to move their feet and not to pick up silly touch fouls. Including this year, Stansbury’s last 6 years as a head coach have seen his teams finish in the Top 30 in the nation in opponents lowest free throw rate. This year, the Hilltoppers rank 9th in opponents free throw rate. That’s is good for the under here with fewer free throws being attempted. Western Kentucky ranks towards the bottom in offensive rebounding so they don’t get a lot of 2nd chance points.
Saint Mary’s is a team that loves to dribble the air out of the ball, especially with a big lead. Only Virginia plays at a slower tempo than the Gael’s this year. Defensively, opposing team's average possession is 18.9 seconds which ranks 347th in the nation. Saint Mary’s doesn’t shoot a lot of free throws either, ranked 313th in free throw attempts to field goal attempts.
Look for a game played at a slow tempo and not a lot of fouling. The Gael’s have one of the lowest free throw rates the last 2 years and defensively have been good also and not fouling a lot, which is the same thing that Stansbury coaches at Western Kentucky. Look for a final score in the 74-54 range.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -½ +107 over Boston
Regulation only. Boston wanted desperately to defeat its most hated rival on Monday and they accomplished that goal with a 2-1 OT victory. Not allowing the Habs to get any points would have been more satisfying but it is what it is and now the B’s will head to Pittsburgh to face the greatest show on ice. Boston has trouble with speedy teams. They have recent losses to Toronto, Colorado, Philadelphia, Ottawa and Calgary. After a strong start with some very good above and below the surface numbers, the Bruins are regressing badly. Boston has one win over their last four games. They have scored two goals or less in seven of their past 10 games. The Bruins are also 3-9 against top-10 teams and 5-10 against top-16 teams. Boston has defeated the weaker competition in the league thus far and take a massive step up in class when facing these Penguins.
Matt Murray is 11-2-0 with a 1.84 goals-against average and a .936 save percentage. The Penguins have won six in a row and has outscored the opposition 36-14 during that span. In their last game, a 7-0 breeze over the Coyotes, 13 players recorded at least one point. The Penguins are very simply playing at a different level than every other team in the league right now and it’s not just Sidney Crosby, who has 48 goals and 42 assists since Jan. 1 of last year. It’s everyone. If you stop Crosby, there are 15 other guys that can bury the puck or produce. Furthermore, when a team is on a run like the Penguins are now, they can’t wait to get back on the ice and play again. The mindset is to keep it going. The Penguins are peaking right now and we highly doubt the Bruins will get in their way. Most importantly, when Pittsburgh is playing this well and we can back them at home to win in regulation and not spot anything in the process, you can pencil us in immediately.
CALGARY -½ +138 over Tampa Bay
Regulation only. While the betting world waits for the Bolts to wake up and turn things around, we’ll continue to aggressively attack them because they are so beatable. Tampa has scored one goal or less five times in their past 10 games and two goals or less seven times. The Lightning have one victory over its last eight games, which was a 2-1 OT victory over Washington. The Bolts are coming off a 4-3 loss to the Penguins, which looks pretty good on paper but they were dominated and only the great goaltending of Andrei Vasilevskiy prevented that score from being 6-3 or worse. The Bolts were outshot 37-23 and out-chanced too. The Bolts are spending more time in their own end than most because their defense is weak under pressure. In 13 games against top-16 teams, Tampa Bay has three wins. Then there’s Ben Bishop, a stiff we told you about last year that we insisted was more lucky than good. Bishop doesn’t stop pucks, instead pucks hit him and don’t go in. He’s slow, he allows a ton of weak goals and only his size keeps him employed. Ben Bishop makes Pekka Rinne look like Carey Price.
It took some time to get used to a new system under a new coaching staff but right now the Flames are thriving with six wins in a row. Perhaps the most noteworthy accomplishment is that they h3eated up before Johnny Gaudreau returned. Only once over their past seven games have the Flames allowed more than two goals against. Chad Johnson can no longer be regarded as a “back-up” goaltender. During this current six-game winning streak, Calgary has outscored the opposition 24-9. The Flames defense is one of, if not the best collection of puck-moving defensemen in the game. They’re good in keeping the puck out too. Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano have been paired up for 15 games and just might be the best duo in the game right now. Hamilton has four goals, 11 points, and a plus-14 rating over that 15-game span while Giordano’s numbers are almost exactly the same. You could spot 15 cents with OT included but why would we even wager on this game if we didn’t trust the Flames to win it comfortably. Incidentally, the Flames have the NHL's best power play in December (38.9%). They've scored 7 goals on 18 PP chances. Play the value in regulation and play it with confidence.
Please note: This wager will only stand if Ben Bishop is confirmed, otherwise we’re going to pass.
Zack Cimini
East Tennessee St. vs. Mississippi St.
Pick: Mississippi St.
A team sliding a bit ATS has been East Tennessee State. As mentioned in prior write ups it's not the lineup that is causing them problems. It's their depth. Until the Bucs square things away there, they are going to be susceptible to deep lulls offensively and runs from opposing teams. The lines continue to be small versus the Rams, but once again we'll play the other side with the Bulldogs here.