Free Picks for Tuesday, Wednesday, December 7th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
PEPPERDINE AT LONG BEACH STATE
PLAY: LONG BEACH STATE -6.5
I really don’t know why Dan Monson continues to overschedule every November and early December. I guess the Long Beach State coach believes it toughen his team up for Big West play against what is literally much softer competition. Problem is, the 49ers haven’t won the league tournament since 2012. Maybe it’s time for a new strategy as this team takes so many lumps early on they might actually be wearing out come tournament time.
Regardless, Long Beach State has faced what amounts to a murder’s row already this season. Five road games against Top 20 neighborhood teams is a bit much for any Big West entry, at least in this observer’s opinion. Consequently, the 49ers are returning to Long Beach saddled with an ugly nine-game losing streak.
If the 49ers aren’t too discouraged, they should have great opportunity to take out some frustrations on tonight’s opponent. Pepperdine isn’t exactly sizzling to start the season, and the Waves could be in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.
Pepperdine will also now be minus the services of senior guard Amadi Udenyi, who is lost for the season with an Achilles injury. Udenyi was hardly the most important guy on the Waves roster, but it’s still a significant loss. It likely means more minutes for freshman Elijah Lee, who has been a turnover machine early on in his maiden voyage as a collegian.
Another problem for Pepperdine is straight off the stat sheet. This team is absolutely atrocious at the foul line. The Waves are converting less than 60% of their free throws, which is absurdly awful.
The oddsmakers know the score here, as they’ve installed the 49ers as substantial chalk in spite of that nasty looking record. I feel the same way, and also believe that if they get a chance to make a statement here, they’re going to. Look for Long Beach State to crack the win column tonight by more than enough to cover the spread.
Ben Burns
Cavs vs. Knicks
Play: Cavs -7½
These teams met on Opening Night, the Cavs winning big. The Knicks, who have been playing well in recent weeks, would surely love to avenge that 29-point loss. However, that figures to be easier said than done. The Cavs are well-rested. They had Tuesday off, after beating Toronto on Monday. Prior to that, they had both Saturday and Sunday off. Not so for the Knicks. They're off a Tuesday game at Miami and playing their third game in four days. They were 0-4 SU when playing the second of b2b games in November, losing by a minimum of five points each time.
Bob Harvey
Warriors vs. Clippers
Play: Warriors -4
Two of the top teams in the Western Conference square off in Los Angeles where the Clippers host the Golden State Warriors. Tip-off is set for 10:30 PM ET at Staples Center where Golden State is favored by -4. The total
The Warriors (18-3, 10-10 ATS) are coming off a 140-106 blowout of the Indiana Pacers. Klay Thompson set a Golden State franchise record, scoring a career-high 60 points on 21 of 33 shooting in just 29 minutes. Thompson averaged 26.3 points while burying 53.8 percent of his 3-point attempts in four games against Los Angeles last season.
The Clippers (16-6, 12-10 ATS)dropped three in a row on the road but seemed to turn things around with impressive wins at Cleveland and New Orleans. However the Clips’ stumbled in their return home falling to the Pacers 111-102. They had more turnovers (20) than assists (19) in the loss to the Pacers and were outscored 35-17 in the third quarter. Blake Griffin was the lone bright spot with 24 points and 16 rebounds giving him three straight double-doubles.
Golden State is 9-1 SU on the road, 5-4 ATS. LA is 7-3 at home and 5-5 ATS.
The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. The Warriors are 4-1-1 in their last six road games.
The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven series meetings while the OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles. The OVER is 11-3 in the Clippers last 14 overall.
Rob Vinciletti
Nuggets vs. Nets
Play: Nets +5
The Nets are 13-5 in this series and have won the last 4. This is a solid spot for them tonight taking points against a Denver team that is under .500 and has lost 7 of 11 on the road. In fact road team with 1 exact day of rest with a total that is 190 or higher that won and covered as a road favorite of 4 or less, while scoring 100 or more are 1-15 to the spread vs a team like the Nets that scored 100 or more as a home dog last out. Look for a tight game here with the Nets cashing out.
Jim Feist
Warriors at Clippers
Pick: Under
A high total as both teams can score, but don't overlook the defensive capabilities. Los Angeles is No. 7 in the NBA in points allowed, sixth in field goal shooting defense. The Clippers are 23-10 under the total after a loss and 8-1 under at home against a team with a team with a winning road record. Golden State is No. 3 in the NBA in in field goal shooting defense. The Under is 19-9-1 in Warriors last 29 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. And when these teams clash the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Greg Smith
Indiana at Phoenix
Play: Indiana -4
Indiana was simply crushed in their last game by the Warriors. They shot only 40% from the field and Clay Thompson had one of the best performance in NBA history with 60 points in only 3 quarters. Tonight the Pacers put that behind them and give a pissed off effort against the Suns. The Suns are the perfect team to get back some pride as they are one of the worst teams defensively.
David Banks
Warriors @ Clippers
Pick: Clippers +4
Golden State, 17-3 thus far this season, travels down the coast to take on the Clippers (16-6). The Warriors have the best record in basketball thanks, in large part, to an offense that leads the NBA in scoring (119.1 points per game). Kevin Durant leads Golden State averaging 27.3 points per game on 56 percent shooting from the floor. If there is a team in the West that can challenge the Warriors, it may very well be the Clippers. First, they will have to snap out of their funk.
Los Angeles has lost four of its last six games and had a stretch where they lost three straight to Eastern Conference foes Detroit, Indiana, and Brooklyn. The Clippers have two legitimate superstars in leading scorer Blake Griffin (21.1 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and guard Chris Paul (17.8 ppg, 9.1 apg). Add in center DeAndre Jordan (11.0 ppg, 12.9 rpg) and the play of J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford and you have the makings of a strong playoff contender. The Clippers will have to keep Griffin healthy though.
Any hopes of beating the Warriors starts with defending the Big Three – Durant, Steph Curry, and Klay Thompson. Curry scores 26.9 points per game and Thompson adds 20.7. The Warriors lead the league in assists too, averaging over 31 per game. The Warriors lost last week to Houston, a 132-127 setback to Houston. Prior to that game, Golden State’s previous loss was on Nov. 4. The Warriors don’t lose many games and it will take a complete effort from the Clippers to pull out a victory.
Alex Smith
Minnesota at Toronto
Play: Toronto 115
The Minnesota Wild wrap up a five-game road trip tonight as they head into Toronto to hook up with the Maple Leafs. Both clubs have been trending downward as of late with the Leafs losing their last two game as part of a quick three-game road swing. Expanding even further, Toronto has now dropped five of their last its last contests overall. The Wild have lost four of their last five road games with the lone victory coming in a 2-1 overtime decision at Edmonton. Minnesota's inconsistent special teams has once again been on display during this trip with their penalty-killing unit yielding four goals while being held scoreless on the man-advantage. This after they netted six power play goals over their previous four games. While Toronto has lost five consecutive meetings in the series, including a tight 3-2 loss in St. Paul back on October 20, the Leafs have been stout at home with wins in eight of their 11 contests at the Air Canada Centre this season. In addition, Toronto has cashed in six of their last eight games as a favorite while Minnesota is just 2-5 as an underdog. Price is right to fire on the short home favorite tonight.
Andrew Lange
Missouri St at So Missouri
Play: Over 144.5
Southeast Missouri is your typical up-tempo, no defense low mid-major. The Redhawks appear a bit improved over last season's 5-24 disaster with three wins already over DI competition. Of 2015's 27 games against DI teams, on only seven occasions did SEMO net better than a point per possession. This season, they've done in four times and have a shot to do it again on their home floor this evening. Missouri State is another team that looks much improved on the offensive end. They hung 96 against Alabama A&M and 91 against Jacksonville State to kick off the season. Not exactly stiff competition but SEMO isn't either as the Redhawks rank near the bottom nationally in a number of defensive categories. The Bears saw more resistance in their last three games against DePaul, North Dakota State and Air Force but still averaged a respectable 67.7 ppg with all three games at 68 possessions or less. There's also an injury to be aware with Missouri State's Obediah Church unlikely to play due to an bum knee. He's a strong "under" player with limited offensive ability and a big impact on the defensive end. Despite playing around 20 minutes per game, Church averages over five rebounds to go with 17 blocks. He didn't suit up against Air Force and the Falcons shot 56% from the floor and outrebounded the Bears by 13. Pace should be in the low-to-mid 70's with the over in play.
Wunderdog
Indiana @ Phoenix
Pick: Indiana -4.5
It has been a tough start for Phoenix, and it won't get easier with T.J. Warren out. The Suns are limping out of the gate with a 6-15 start to the season. Over their last eight games, they are just seven points away from being 0-8. Their last four games have seen absolutely no effort on the defensive end, as they have allowed opponents to score just shy of 120 points per game, on just shy of 50% shooting. Indiana is showing some signs of playing at a higher level, as they have won three of their last five, and when you consider that they beat the LA Clippers twice in the stretch as well as Portland, and lost to Golden State, there is certainly a positive takeaway. Indiana is 10-1 ATS on the road after a 15+ point loss in their last game. Look for a response here from the Pacers, so make the play on Indiana.
Bob Balfe
Seton Hall +1
Seton Hall is one of the more athletic teams in the country. This is a unit that won’t allow the big bodies of Cal to bully them. You saw Cal just get by Princeton last night because they grabbed every rebound. This Golden Bears team does not shoot the ball well enough to beat a Seton Hall team that can get to the rim.
Rocketman
Detroit vs. Charlotte
Play: Charlotte -5.5
The Detroit Pistons travel to Charlotte to take on the Hornets on Wednesday night. Detroit is 12-11 SU overall this year while Charlotte comes in with a 12-9 SU overall this season. Detroit is allowing 102.7 points per game on the road this season. Charlotte is scoring 105.3 points per game overall this year, 105.1 points per game at home this season and 103.8 points per game their past 5 games overall. Detroit is playing here with no rest tonight as they played Chicago last night. Detroit is 4-9 ATS last 13 road games. Charlotte is 10-4-1 ATS last 15 games against the NBA Central. Charlotte is 9-4-1 ATS last 14 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Favorite is 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings overall in this series. Home team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings in this series. Looking for Charlotte to be focused on a huge win tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Charlotte tonight!
Brett Atkins
My Wednesday comp play will be to take the generous points with Valparaiso as they take on Kentucky at Rupp Arena.
Kentucky suffered their first straight up loss of the season on Saturday when they lost to the high-scoring UCLA Bruins, and while Coach Cal's team will be able to get back into the straight up win column here tonight, I don't think they will be able to just "name it" against a Valpo team that comes in sporting a 7-1 straight up mark.
The Crusaders have recorded straight up wins over Rhode Island, BYU and Alabama already this season, and they did also tangle with Oregon (in a blowout loss), so they should not be too intimidated by playing in the Bluegrass State this Wednesday night.
Kentucky will want to get the blowout cooking here, but I say they leave the back-door open.
Take the points and Valparaiso.
1* VALPARAISO
Brad Wilton
No hesitation in laying the road wood with the visiting Cavaliers as they take on a Knicks team that just played last night at Miami and won. New York has won 4 in a row, and 7 of their last 9, but they may also be without D. Rose for this game as he left with back spasms last night.
Cleveland hasn't been lighting it up of late, as they just ended a 3 game losing streak with a road win and cover at Toronto their last time out.
The Cavaliers do have some pretty convincing series numbers though on their side as they play at Madison Square Garden this Wednesday night. Cleveland opened the season with a 117-88 demolition of New York at Quicken Loans Arena, as they increased their series winning streak to 7 in a row, and they covered their second straight.
With Cleveland playing some so-so hoops, and New York playing a little better than expected of late, the line value tonight rests with the rested visitors.
Go ahead and lay it with the Cavs.
3* CLEVELAND