Chris Jordan
Last night I gave you the New York Knicks as my free winner, and they got it done in Miami, with a rather easy win over the Heat. Now on a 12-4 run with my complimentary plays, I'm rolling with the Cleveland Cavaliers, who visit New York and catch the Knicks on the second of back-to-back nights.
New York, which is 0-4 on the second night of back-to-backs, would make the playoffs if they started today and they're playing very well. In resurgent mode, the Knicks are over .500 this late in the season for just the third time in 12 years. I still don't think they can hang with the Cavaliers tonight, even if they're without guard J.R. Smith.
Cleveland is looking for its eighth straight win over the Knicks, who played a rather emotional game last night in South Beach, and may have blown their wad in a 114-103 win.
I'm also skeptical about Phil Jackson's comments about Carmelo Anthony, call him a ball hog, and that he holds the rock too long. That could get into Melo's head with immediacy, as nobody wants to piss off the Zen-master. His sentiments about the team's face and superstar comes at the wrong time.
Cleveland arrives with the best record (14-5) in the Eastern Conference, and in 45 games against the Knicks, LeBron James is averaging 27.2 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. Go back to opening night, when James recorded the first of his three triple-doubles this season: scoring 19 points, dishing 14 assists and grabbing 11 rebounds in a 117-88 win at Cleveland.
This is going to be a rout, mark my words, as the Knicks will come out flat, and the King will reign in the Mecca.
1* CAVALIERS
Bob Valentino
Let's play the Indiana Pacers as my free winner tonight, as they get a look at one of the worst defensive teams in the league one night after it lost in Salt Lake City, the Phoenix Suns.
This a game that pits one of the league's best shooting teams - Indiana is shooting 45.5 percent from the field - against one of the league's worst defensive clubs - Phoenix allows 46.4 percent.
The Pacers arrive in Phoenix after facing three of the Western Conference's elite teams, and now take a step down in class during this five-game Western swing. And make note, Indiana is going to be on a rampage after a humiliating, 142-106 shellacking at the hands of the Golden State Warriors on Monday night in Oakland, where Klay Thompson torched the Pacers for 60 points.
Indiana sandwiched a win between losses during this trip, as it was drubbed at Portland, 131-109, last Wednesday before rebounding to take down the Los Angeles Clippers 111-102 on Sunday.
But here's the real motivation for tonight: revenge. Indiana is looking to avenge a 116-96 defeat handed down by the Suns when the clubs met Nov. 18 in Indianapolis.
The Pacers are not only 7-3 following a defeat this season, but are also on a 4-1 ATS runs after failing to cover the number.
Phoenix is 1-3 in the second game of consecutive nights this season, and will struggle in this one tonight.
3* PACERS
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for tonight is on the same game I have a 30 Dimer on - Golden State at Los Angeles - as I like these two division rivals to soar past the number in a shootout.
Golden State has the best record in the league, and has the best offensive game in the NBA. If the Clippers want to stay with the Warriors tonight, especially on the Staples Center floor, offense will be prevalent at both ends.
The Warriors, who are averaging 120.2 points per game, have gone over in seven of nine Western Conference showdowns. The Clippers, who score an average of 108.7 points per contest, have gone high in 11 of 14.
This series has gone high in nine of the last 13 meetings. Take this one over tonight.
5* Warriors/Clippers Over
STEPHEN NOVER
Blazers vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -117
The Bucks are a below-the-radar team at home with maybe the most versatile player in the NBA, Giannis Antetokounmpo. The guy is a top-10 fantasy player and he's helped spark the Bucks into respectability. Do you know which team ranks No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and defensive 3-point percentage? It's the Bucks. That's an important key here because the Trail Blazers are heavily reliant on their perimeter shooting. Their top three scorers are guards Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and small forward Maurice Harkless. They've helped Portland rank among the top quarter teams in 3-points attempted and made. If the Bucks didn't blow a big lead to the Spurs at home two days ago in a 97-96 loss they would be riding a five-game winning streak. The Bucks are among the leaders in points in the paint. Portland gets very limited scoring from its big men. So the Bucks hold a frontcourt edge here and Antetokounmpo greatly reduces Portland's backcourt advantage. Jabari Parker, the No. 2 overall pick from a couple of years ago, also has been elevating his game. Portland has a losing road mark. The Trail Blazers lost during their past two visits to Milwaukee failing to cover in four of their last five road games to the Bucks. Milwaukee has covered eight of the last 10 overall games in the series. Since Nov. 12, the Bucks have posted home victories against the Grizzlies when they still had Mike Conley, Magic, Nets and Cavaliers by an impressive 17 points. Their home losses during this span came to the Warriors by three points, Raptors by four and Spurs by one. The Trail Blazers aren't in the class of the teams the Bucks lost to at home.
GAMEPLAN
Pepperdine vs. Long Beach State
Play: Long Beach State -7½
Ok, this is the "trap" line of the year so far in college basketball. Long Beach State sits at a shocking 1-9 straight up and just 1-5 against the number. Pepperdine is a respectable 4-4, but not playing as well as many expected. So how in the world is Long Beach State favored by 6.5 points?
Very simple. While they are off to a dreadful start, Long Beach is one of the most talented teams in the Big West Conference and many people's pick to win that league this season. The 49ers have been off to a slow start as an experienced team tries to work talented transfers Gabe Levin and Evan Payne into the lineup without upsetting the chemistry. It hasn't always worked in the early going, especially with Payne who has looked out of place and shot just 37 percent from the floor.
But you need to remember that the 49ers played EIGHT of their first nine games on the road as these kids should file charges against their Athletic Director who made this early-season schedule that had Long Beach State flying all over the country for unfavorable road matchups.
But now this team returns home where they have been very tough historically and even tougher historically against in-state rival Pepperdine. In fact, Long Beach has covered the number against Pepperine in 8 of their last 10 contests.
Look for Long Beach State to get the job done. The bookies are BEGGING you to bet Pepperdine plus the points. Do NOT fall for it.
BRANDON LEE
SMU -3.5
I like the Mustangs as a small home favorite here against what I think is an overrated TCU team that is getting way too much love for starting out 8-0. This will be just the 2nd true road game for the Horned Frogs and they squeaked out the first one 63-59 at UNLV, who just lost to an awful Arizona State team by 24-points. This is by far their biggest challenge away from home and I think SMU could turn this into a blowout. The Mustangs are a perfect 5-0 at home this season and 37-3 over their last 40 home games. SMU is really getting after it on the defensive end, as opponents are shooting just 39.9% from the field against the Mustangs on the year and just 33.6% on the season. Keep in mind the Horned Frogs only shot 36.2% in their win at UNLV.
DAVE PRICE
Lakers/Rockets Over 222.5
This is a matchup between two fast-paced teams who like to shoot the 3-ball. The Lakers and Rockets both rank among the top 12 in tempo. The Rockets are 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Defense has been a problem area for both teams as the Rockets are 25th in defensive efficiency, while the Lakers are 28th. These teams met in the season opener with the Lakers winning 120-114 for 234 combined points. They also combined for 240 points in their previous meeting. I think we see another shootout here that easily exceeds the 222.5-point total.
JIMMY BOYD
Kings -3½
I really like the value here with Sacramento laying a short number on the road against the Mavericks. Dallas is tied with the 76ers with a league-low 4 wins on the season and should be a much bigger dog here. The Mavs will be without both starting center Andrew Bogut and power forward Dirk Nowitzki, which really limits their options inside against the Kings. That's a problem, as Sacramento has arguably the toughest big man in the league to guard in DeMarcus Cousins. Dallas will have no choice but to double-team Cousins, which is going to leave the Kings other players shooting wide open shots all night long.
I also expect the Kings to be all business here, as they will be motivated to close out their 5-game road trip with a win after dropping the last 3. Sacramento is also going to be fresh, as they have had the last 2 days off. This has proven a great spot to back a poor team like the Kings in this spot. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, who have only won between 25% to 40% of their games and playing a team with a losing record are 22-7 (76%) ATS over the last 3 seasons.
BRANDON SHIVELY
Knicks +9
The Cleveland Cavaliers are not near the form they were in when they won the NBA Finals last year. The Cavs are only 7-11 ATS this year with 4 of those covers coming at home and the other two against Toronto. After losing 3 straight, Cleveland found a way to outscore Toronto Tuesday night in a 4 point victory. They have not given up 108 points or more in their last 5 games. Their only road win this year by more than what this spread is tonight was by 9 points at Washington. The Cavs are 1-3 ATS this year as a road favorite of 6 or more points and only 9-17 ATS since last year as a RF of 6+ points.
The Knicks have been playing good ball at home this year and have enjoyed an early advantageous heavy home schedule. They will be back in the Garden tonight winners of 4 straight and winners of 8 of their last 9 home games. Offensively the Knicks have scored 102+ points in their last 11 games.
New York is playing with revenge from an embarrassing 29 point road loss to begin the season against Cleveland. The hype is on LeBron and Kyrie coming to play in the Garden and that’s what the public is entertaining. I am seeing an inflated line and one that needs to be taken advantage of as we have a team in the Knicks that is playing good ball and winning at home at a high rate.
JACK JONES
Knicks +8½
The New York Knicks are playing as well as anyone in the Eastern Conference right now. They should not be 8.5-point home dogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers here. They will be out to prove that they can contend in the East by beating the Cavaliers here tonight.
The Knicks have gone 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. I realize that they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their 114-103 win in Miami last night, but playing the Cavaliers here helps them recover quickly on adrenaline alone.
The Cavaliers have been an overvalued commodity all season. They are just 7-11 ATS on the season, and they are actually getting outscored on the road this season 103.5 to 104.7. The Knicks are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents 106.5 to 103.6 on the season.
New York is 32-10 ATS in its last 42 after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games coming in. The Knicks are 8-1 ATS in home games vs. up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game this season. The Cavaliers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.
TEDDY COVERS
Pistons vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets -5½
Let me start with the basic concept here. Yes, Detroit got their starting point guard Reggie Jackson back on the floor for their last two games after Jackson missed the first six weeks of the season due to injury. But while getting Jackson back running the point is a good thing for Stan Van Gundy’s squad in the long term, in the short term it does NOT make them a better squad. For at least the next few games, while Jackson gets re-acclimated with his teammates, the Pistons base power rating number must be lowered, not raised. Yet the markets have moved in the opposite direction.
Van Gundy, following Jackson’s first game back on the floor, a loss to Orlando: “We were terrible defensively, terrible. We didn’t put enough into it to win the game. They deserved to win. I think most nights we bring a decent effort. But we’ve been just too up and down defensively. We looked really slow tonight.” Jackson’s quote: “It's going to take some time to get acclimated with my teammates again, but (the knee) felt good. I just wished we came out with a win. I felt like I was behind others in game shape and little aspects like that. I think in defensive coverage and rotations, I was a little rusty, and then just finding guys a little bit quicker (on offense).”
It’s no sure thing that Jackson is going to suit up at all this evening, still awaiting clearance to play on the second night of back-2-backs after the Pistons blew a 17 point lead against the Bulls last night, but rallied in the fourth to win and cover. If Jackson doesn’t play, it’ll be Ish Smith back as the starter with Beno Udrih coming off the bench. But anytime we’re talking about point guard transitions on an NBA team playing on the second night of back-to-backs off a win, I’m probably going to look to the other side.
And there’s a LOT to like about Charlotte right now. The Hornets were real moneymakers for my clients and I last year, finishing with the #6 seed in the East. They are exactly what I look for out of squads primed to retain their pointspread value, a smaller market squad without ‘name brand’ superstars that doesn’t get many TV games to attract a public following.
And Charlotte is in a great spot tonight – they’re rested, they’ve been getting practices in during a relatively friendly scheduling stretch, and they’ve got something to prove against the Pistons. Due to a quirky schedule, Detroit played here just last week, in a LOUSY spot for Charlotte, and they rolled the Hornets 112-89, Charlotte’s worst home loss of the season.
With big man Marvin Williams back in the lineup, Charlotte head coach Steve Clifford sure sounds confident moving forward: "That's why you'll see teams in these first 20 games not do as well (and then) will take off, because they'll develop that mentality that you need. Every team has a different intensity level, and they have to find it before they can play well consistently. Sometimes it takes 20 games, sometimes 15, sometimes longer." Clifford, talking about the win at Dallas earlier in the week: “The thing I liked is even when things weren't going our way on the road, they were very locked in and positive with each other in the huddles. That's the way it has to be."
Charlotte’s a ‘bet-on’ team right now. I have no hesitation laying the points with the Hornets tonight!
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +180 over SAN JOSE
OT included. The Sharks have won three straight and have not allowed more than one goal against in any of those three victories. The Sharks are now 15-10 but they have played only one road game since November 19th, (in Los Angeles) and they didn’t even have to leave the state to play it. San Jose has played six of seven at home and it is not beneficial to play at home for such a long stretch. Players go home after practice with a sense of complacency setting in. The Sharks will play in Anaheim on Thursday. What sticks out to us more than anything is San Jose’s difficulty with the Penguins. Pittsburgh abused the Sharks in last year’s Cup final and defeated them twice against this year by a combined score of 8-2. We mention this because Ottawa plays a very similar style to the Pens. They are a quick, aggressive and talented team with several sharp-shooters capable of burying a puck anytime. The Sharks have difficulty playing against this style.
The Senators attack and they attack well. They went into Pittsburgh on Tuesday and buried five pucks but Craig Anderson was brutal and their coach, Guy Boucher decided to yank him too late (after the eighth goal). Mike Condon will get this start and he might be the most underrated goaltender in the game. Condon is strong on his feet, his positioning is outstanding and he almost always gives his team a chance to win. The Sens (15-11) have almost the exact same record as the Sharks but they’re getting a fraction of the credit. The Senators have won five of their past eight games and have picked up points in six of those. At the end of the day, the Senators are simply too strong a team to be taking back prices like this and therefore we must continue to play them.
SPORTS WAGERS
SMU -4½ over TCU
TCU is 8-0 and received 33 votes in Monday’s Associated Press poll. If the poll extended past a Top 25, TCU would be #29 nationally. TCU’s average win margin has been 17 points. The Horned Frogs have brought attention to themselves by being one of 11 teams in the country without a loss and now they’re getting points against a team with a modest 6-3 record. There is a right time to attack teams with a great record that are not that strong and now that the market has taken notice of the Horned Frogs, this would be that time. TCU has defeated a bunch of weak teams on their home court. They nearly blew a 17-point lead against Washington. They have five freshman getting minutes and their leading scorer is sophomore guard Alex Robinson, a transfer from Texas A&M. What we’re seeing is a bunch of skewed numbers from an average team and now we’ll attempt to take advantage of a short-priced favorite who is fully aware of TCU’s 8-0 record and would like nothing more than to be the first blemish.
The Mustangs are a modest 6-3 thus far. Their last two wins occurred against Delaware State and Cal State Bakersfield. Before defeating those two, SMU played a very average Boise State squad and lost, 71-62. However, we pay little attention to results because they cause market over and under-reactions and pay more attention to performances and strength of schedule. The Mustangs went into USC against the 8-0 Trojans and lost by just five. They also lost to Michigan and has an impressive nine-point victory over Pitt. Semi Ojeleye, a transfer from Duke leads the team in scoring (17.2) to go with his 7.7 rebounds per game. Jarrey Foster had a very good freshman campaign and is another one of those big guards who can attack the basket and play solid defense. Ben Moore is monster in the paint that does a lot more than just score points. Shake Milton started 23 games as a freshman and averaged 10.5 points and 2.7 assists. Milton is a great scorer that can also handle the ball and set up his teammates. The Mustangs feature a very good rotation with balanced scoring. You may remember that the Mustangs won 25 games last year but was banned from playing in the post-season. This year, the Mustangs are eligible, they’re determined to get there and they're so much more than 4½-points better than this intruder.
Power Sports
Minnesota vs. Toronto
Pick: Minnesota
Though only 4th in their own division (Central), I actually have the Wild rated as the top team in the Western Conference right now. After concluding a three-game trek though Western Canada w/ a 2-1 win over Edmonton on Sunday, I believe the team has been severely mispriced as they get set to hit the other end of the country
Ironically, Toronto also just concluded a three-game trip through Western Canada. Like the Wild, they beat Edmonton, but lost to Vancouver and Calgary. Unlike the Wild, the Leafs' trip started in Edmonton and worked its way West. Though 10-9-5 overall, Toronto still finds itself in last place in the division as the Atlantic is shaping up to be quite challenging this year. While they've been far better at home than on the road, the Leafs still don't deserve to be the ML favorites in this matchup. They are just 5-11 SU playing w/ three days rest by the way. They are 28th in goals allowed plus were shutout in Calgary last week. The goaltending they'll face here is far stiffer.
What I like about Minnesota is the fact they are 2nd in the league in goals allowed and first in save percentage. Paced by Devan Dubnyk (league leader at .948), the Wild have outscored opponents so far by 15 goals. Dubnyk already has four shutouts and his GAA is 1.63. It's a massive edge for him over Toronto's Frederik Andersen. The Wild have won all five meetings with the Maple Leafs the last three seasons, including a 3-2 home win back in October. Great value here on the better team.