Free Picks for Wednesday, February 15th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
KNICKS AT THUNDER
PLAY: THUNDER -7
Nice win Sunday to temporarily stop the bleeding for the Knicks. But I don’t think it was anything more than a band-aid, and not for one minute do I think the problems are suddenly in the rear view mirror for NY.
The Thunder have struggled as i suspected they might after the Kanter injury, winning just three of nine since he got hurt. But I like this situational spot for OC. They’ve actually been quite good home off a loss this season, while the Knicks have been pretty bad on the road off a win.
Ok City also got their butts kicked at Washington and they’re 5-1/4-0 this season off a 20+ point loss. The number seems reasonable to me, so I’ll go ahead and lay it with the Thunder.
Scott Spreitzer
Knicks vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -7
OKC is off two ugly losses, but gets "just what the doctor ordered," tonight. The Thunder obviously put a lot of energy into the home contest with Golden State and didn't recover from the beatdown in time before taking on and losing badly to Washington. But I expect Westbrook and company to bounce back against the lowly Knicks. Yes, New York slammed the door on the defensive end in the impressive win over San Antonio on Monday, but I'm not buying. The Knicks have dropped seven in a row SU and are 1-6 ATS off an outright win, allowing 118 ppg. Even when we remove the 4-OT's against ATL, the average is still a hefty 113 ppg. Too often this team "dogs" it on the defensive end and we expect the Thunder to take full advantage. OKC has covered eight of their last 10 at home and they're on a 13-3 ATS run against teams with a losing record.
Bryan Leonard
San Antonio vs. Orlando
Play: San Antonio -10½
Spurs are a veteran team who knows the importance of these games before and after the break. After blowing a big halftime lead two games back you know coach Pop will be all over this team to extend here.
Meanwhile Orlando is off an upset win over in-state rival Miami. That broke a four game losing streak for the Magic. The last time these two got together was in San Antonio where Orlando shocked the Spurs 95-83 as a 12 1/2 point underdog. It's revenge time here for San Antonio.
Braxton Myles
Arkansas vs. South Carolina
Play: Arkansas +9½
South Carolina almost seems to be struggling right now at this point in the season and are only 5-7 ATS in home games this season. Arkansas is 5-4 ATS in all games played in South Carolina since 1997 and 2-1 ATS in the last 3 seasons. South Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and are only averaging 8 more PPG than their opponent in their last five games. I love Arkansas in this one and am going all in on them myself. Good Luck and go Razorbacks!
Braxton Myles is 45-23 in his last 68 CBB premium packages and is second on this weeks leaderboard. Enjoy this free pick and don't miss your chance to get in on Braxton's 5 OVER-UNDER picks tomorrow where he is 19-7 since February 4th!
Marc Lawrence
Iowa State vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -3½
Edges - Wildcats: 14-2 SU and 12-3-1 ATS at home as a favorite of less than 8 points off a previous home loss… Cyclones: 3-10-1 ATS away versus revenge in this series, including 0–5-1 ATS when the Wildcats are off a loss. With KSU 17-8-1 ATS with same season loss revenge against foes off a win of 16 or more points, including 7-1-1 ATS as a favorite, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas State.
Sean Murphy
Hawks vs. Clippers
Play: Over 213
I'll back the 'over' in Los Angeles on Wednesday night. The Hawks have certainly been involved in their share of high-scoring games lately although last time out they were involved in an overtime result against the Blazers, and that one still stayed 'under' the number. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday.
The Clippers won by an 88-72 score in Utah in their most recent game, wrapping up a successful 3-2 road trip. Keep in mind, the first four games of that trip were all track meets. That's been the norm for the Clippers this season. Here at home they're averaging just under 109 points per game.
The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled 220 points, easily eclipsing the posted total. We're dealing with a higher number this time around but it's warranted in my opinion.
Red Dog Sports
Varzim vs. Sporting Lisbon B
Play: Varzim +200
Varzim is #5 at 11-7-8 while the home team is #21 of the 22 teams. They are 7-16-6 (-11). Varzim has won their last four on the road by 2-1, 2-1, 2-1 and 2-0. The stadium that Sporting CP uses only seats 3000. Varzim beat them 3-0 at home back in September. I do worry about a draw but see nice value at +200.
Jim Feist
Duke at Virginia
Pick: Under
An ACC rivalry game and both teams know how to bring the defense. Duke is 5-2 under the total on the road following three or more consecutive home games. Virginia is strong on defense, shutting down Louisville two games ago allowing 55 points. The Under is 17-8-1 in the Cavaliers last 26 vs. the ACC.
David Banks
Knicks @ Thunder
Pick: Thunder -7
After four straight losses and the whole Charles Oakley incident, the Knicks pulled together for a much-needed 94-90 win over San Antonio on Sunday, a game in which Carmelo Anthony surpasses Charles Barkley for 25th place on the NBA’s all-time career scoring list. New York has been somewhat of a mess lately as one of the team’s former greats, Oakley, was arrested while attending a home game. That came on the heels of team president Phil Jackson calling out Anthony. The Knicks haven’t been to the playoffs in four seasons and likely will not make the postseason this year.
On Wednesday, they travel to Oklahoma City to face MVP candidate Russell Westbrook and the Thunder. Westbrook is seeking to become only the second player to average a triple-double for an entire NBA season (Oscar Robertson was the other). The Thunder guard scores 31.2 points, averages 10.5 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. The problem for Westbrook is his supporting cast. Center Enes Kanter is out with a broken arm though Steven Adams (12.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg) has performed well. Other than guard Victor Olapido, the Thunder lack dynamic offensive talent. Plus, they aren’t as good defensively now that Kevin Durant is in Golden State.
The Thunder (31-24) just lost a 130-114 decision to the Warriors on Saturday and will face Washington on Monday night before facing the Knicks. Anthony, who averages 23.2 points a game to lead New York, has been the subject of some trade rumors. Kristaps Porzingis, the 7-foot-3 power forward, is the future of the franchise and Jackson will likely try to build around him. Porzingis averages 18.5 points and 7.1 rebounds a game. Derrick Rose, while not the player he once was, is a solid point guard averaging 17.5 points and 4.5 assists.
Wunderdog
Samford @ E. Tennessee St.
Pick: Samford +11
Samford is a big dog but is having a fine season, including a winning road record. Samford boasts four players averaging double figures in scoring in Demetrius Denzel-Dyson (15.8 ), Wyatt Walker (12.7), Christen Cunningham (10.9) and Alex Thompson (10.8 ). In Southern Conference games this year, Samford is averaging 81.5 points per game, shooting 47.3 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from three-point range. Samford is 9-1 ATS as a road dog, 11-3 ATS away from home and 21-8 ATS away against a team with a winning home record. They are also 40-19-1 ATS on the road vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. East Tennessee State is home and a big favorite, but the team is 4-9 ATS as home chalk of 7.0 to 12.5.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto -1½ +392 over COLUMBUS
This may seem like a “hipster” play after the Maple Leafs put a 7-1 beatdown on the Islanders but we’re on record as saying the Maple Leafs are contenders and that was on full display last night. In what was one of the more important games of the year for both teams last night, Toronto’s dominance was no laughing matter. Mike Babcock continues to work players into his lineup that make Toronto better every week. The Leafs four lines are as good as any team in the NHL and if the defense can progressively get better, look out. What we like about Toronto here is the price, the determination they showed last night and the fact that Curtis McElhinney will face his former team. Every player on that Maple Leafs bench knows how important this game is to their backup and we trust they’ll dig down deep in support of him.
The Jackets have not scored more than two goals in regulation in five straight. That includes a 3-2 OT win against the sieve-like Red Wings, not once but twice. The last time the Blue Jackets scored a PP goal was on January 22 against Ottawa, 10 games ago. Meanwhile, the Jackets have allowed at least one PP goal in five of their last six games. Another positive nugget is that the Jackets have not seen the Maple Leafs yet this season. Having not seen this completely different version of the Leafs makes them difficult to prepare for. Remember that 17-game Columbus winning streak? They have not won consecutive games since over a span of 15 games.
Once again, we are breaking this down into two bets. We’re playing the Leafss -1½ +392 for 1 unit and +152 for the other unit to make up our traditional two-unit wager.
Therefore the bets are as follows:
Toronto -1½ +392 (Risking 1 unit)
Toronto +152 (Risking 1 unit)
Philadelphia -1½ +337 over CALGARY
Coming off their bye, the Flames lost 5-0 to the Coyotes on Monday night, which isn’t the end of the world considering they had won four or five right before their bye week. What’s most concerning is that Flames Coach, Glen Gulutzan decided to go with Chad Johnson in net and subsequently yanked him after four goals in favor of Brian Elliott. Instead of sticking with Johnson tonight, Gulutzan will now turn to another rusty goaltender in Elliott and his .895 save percentage. Elliott’s save percentage ranks 40th out of 40 goaltenders that have played enough minutes to qualify. That’s panicking. As almost all teams have been coming off their bye, Calgary was flat too but instead of allowing his lines to work it out and try and get some flow to their game, Gulutzan was mixing up lines like a madman and even had Johnny Gaudreau playing on the fourth line in the third period. That’s also panicking. Gulutzan said afterwards that putting Gaudreau on the fourth line was punishment for his lackluster effort. Gulutzan may have some credentials as a hockey guy but his techniques in handling losses are abhorrent. Imagine how the fourth line players feel after hearing that. Imagine how Johnny Hockey feels about being “punished” like a 10-year old. If you do not have the players’ backs, they are not going to bust their asses for you and right now, this idiot coach is putting the blame on everyone else in a desperate move to save his job. Yeah, Calgary can win but they do not have the makeup of a team we want to get behind right now. Successful coaches NEVER publicly throw their players under the bus.
Philadelphia has outshot 13 of its past 17 opponents. The Flyers are coming off a 2-1 win over the Sharks but lost three games in a row prior to that. However, it was a case of poor luck puck and not poor performances that prevented the Flyers from winning. In those aforementioned three losses in a row, Philly only allowed six goals against combined. They badly outshot St. Louis, 26-16 but lost 2-0 and outshot the Islanders 35-30 and lost 3-1. The Flyers have allowed tw0 goals or less in seven of their last nine games and one goal or less in five of those. They are playing outstanding defense but the puck is not going in for them. An early goal here and the floodgates could open up because they are loaded with firepower. Perhaps the best news for Philly is that Michal Neuvirth has found his form and has posted save percentages of .958, .964, .938, .964, .922 and 1.000 in six of his last eight starts. Give a big edge in net to the Flyers here, which is reason enough to back them but when you throw in all the other intangibles, it becomes a must play. Philadelphia is primed to make a playoff push while the Flames are getting a hate on for their coach.
Once again, we are breaking this down into two bets. We’re playing the Flyers -1½ +337 for 1 unit and +117 for the other unit to make up our traditional two-unit wager.
Therefore the bets are as follows:
Philadelphia -1½ +337 (Risking 1 unit)
Philadelphia +117 (Risking 1 unit)
Florida -1½ +400 over SAN JOSE
The Sharks return home from a four-game, East Coast trip after going 1-4 on said trip. They blew a three-goal, third period lead in the opener of said trip and ended it with a 4-1 victory over New Jersey on Sunday. However, the Devils were coming off their bye week so they were flat as a pancake. The Sharkies have lost four of their past five games with losses to Arizona, Philadelphia, Buffalo and Boston. At some point the Sharkies will likely turn up the heat again but returning from a trip is not favorable and they’re not in the best of form either.
The Florida Panthers are extremely high on our radar. We’re playing them here and we’re playing them next up in Anaheim too. As long as prices are being offered on the Panthers, they are worth a bet because when they’re healthy, they are as good as anyone. Our only concern about the Panthers is goaltending because we don’t trust Roberto Luongo or James Reimer but that’s not going to prevent us from backing this profit machine. Florida is coming off a 7-4 victory in Nashville. They have won four of five with only loss over that span occurring against the Kings in the return from their bye week. Incidentally, Florida outshot L.A., 39-26. We’ve said it before and will say it again that no team plays or works harder. No team has a greater desire to win and few teams can match the talent of Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Nick Bjugstad and Vincent Trocheck all on the same team. Huberdeau is Patrick Kane-like talent. The Panthers remain very under the radar because few in the market follow them but oddsmakers know how dangerous and good they are and so do we. Buy, buy and buy some more.
Once again, we are breaking this down into two bets. We’re playing the Panthers -1½ +411 for 1 unit and +137 for the other unit to make up our traditional two-unit wager.
Therefore the bets are as follows:
Florida -1½ +400 (Risking 1 unit)
Florida +137 (Risking 1 unit)
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTHWESTERN -2 over Maryland
Northwestern has been the Big 10's whipping boy for nearly 65 years. The Wildcats have never won a conference tournament and they are the only Power Five conference participant that's never made it to The Big Dance. To say the Wildcats have very little pedigree in the market would be flattering. Northwestern has been without leading scorer Scottie Lindsey for the last three games, but they didn't need him Sunday night when they got a signature win over then #7 Wisconsin. Lindsey will be absent again tonight when the Wildcats host Maryland. There was some chatter that the 'Cats could make the polls this week but we're glad they didn't because it means they are still under the radar and spotting deflated points. Slights like that may seem silly on the surface but coaches and players love the “us versus them” attitude. Northwestern won 20-games last season and failed to qualify for both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. This team certainly has a chip in its shoulder and now Northwestern has a great chance to get another short-handed signature win at home tonight and we trust they’ll respond.
Maryland is coming off their worst week of the season after going 1-2. We can forgive the 73-72 heartbreaker they lost at home to #16 Purdue, but it was the follow up that has us concerned. In a home game that a top team just shouldn't lose, Maryland dropped a 70-64 decision to middle of the pack Penn State. 'Terps head coach Mark Turgeon said his team took “silly fouls” late and it cost them. On paper, it might look like the Terps rebounded with a win over Ohio State on Saturday but it’s not impressive at all. A win over a name program like OSU may sound good to some, but with a 5-9 conference record, the Buckeyes aren't going anywhere. That win over OSU was the 'Terps biggest offensive output this season but that storyline only inflates their value tonight. Maryland is in third place in the Big Ten behind Wisconsin and Purdue. The 'Terps have a big date with the Badgers on deck Sunday in Madison, which is going to be their last chance to take a shot at a ranked team before the end of the regular season. Since they joined the Big 10, Maryland has owned this series with Northwestern by winning all four meetings. That has influence over the market and so does taking back points with a ranked team against an unranked opponent. There is a reason the oddsmakers make the Wildcats a favorite and it is to entice you into playing the wrong side. We'll play the right side.
SETON HALL +108 over Creighton
Seton Hall is on the bubble after losing to St. John last Saturday, but it’s quite possible that the Pirates we're looking ahead to this crucial home stretch. Seton Hall welcomes #20 Creighton, #2 Villanova and Xavier over the next three games. Their tournament hopes will surely rest on those results. Seton Hall has the best big man in the Big East, with 6-10 junior Angel Delgado. Delgado is the country's best rebounder, averaging 13 boards a game. That's 6.3 more rebounds per game than anyone else in the conference. That helps big time to make the Pirates a force on the glass. Seton Hall ranks second in the Big East in rebounding margin (6.9), defensive rebounding percentage (74.9) and offensive rebounding percentage (35.7). Controlling the boards could be a key against a 3-point shooting team like the Bluejays and the winner of the boards is very often the winner on the scoreboard too.
Creighton's work is nearly done with their ticket to the Madness all but punched. The second place Bluejays have a very favorable schedule to finish the season with five of their last six opponents having losing conference records. The team that does not is first place and #2 ranked Villanova. 'Jays coach Greg McDermott isn’t likely to squeeze these guys against the dregs of the Big East, especially with that huge game at 'Nova in 10 days from now circled on the calendar, which sets this one up perfectly. Creighton has bigger fish to fry than the Hall and it’s not like they’re killing it. The Bluejays already have recent losses to Xavier, Georgetown and Marquette in three of their last six games and this is another game in which they have no decided edge but are favored on the road because they're ranked, they have a better pedigree and a better record than the Pirates but it’s not warranted. Hall outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
2017 Genesis Open
We have three players in red-hot form coming into this one. First, there is Jordan Spieth for obvious reasons, Hideki Matsuyama after his WM Phoenix Open triumph two weeks ago and Sergio Garcia, who took down the European Tour’s Dubai Desert Classic. Add into the mix DJ and Day, who both found varying degrees of form at Pebble Beach last time out and it makes for a top-heavy field with great odds on some outstanding players should one of those five not get there.
The Riviera Country Club is a bit of beast of a track for its Par 71 mark at 7,322 yards, and is home to some outstanding features in golf course construction. There is that the bunker that resides in the middle of the sixth green and the driveable Par 4 10th offers up eagle opportunities galore too.
The make-up of the course is unusual too with Poa Annua greens once again the focus alongside the Kikuyu surfaces of fairway and rough. These are commonly found in South Africa, and can prove a particularly menacing threat when wet. Like Pebble Beach, the greens are small at Riviera and thus hard to hit, and with some fairly daunting run-offs and gradients, putting the ball near the flag is going to be as difficult as ever. So finding the right lines off the tee – plus accurate iron play – is essential. Once again, we’re looking for longshots of odds at 40-1 or better and here’s what we’re playing:
The following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.
The head to head match-ups will be bet at unless otherwise stated
Francesco Molinari 80-1
With a rather indecent run of form, we’re expecting Francesco Molinari to go under the radar somewhat this week, but try not to miss out. He’s ranked 29th in the FedExCup standings and 31st in the Official World Rankings, which makes his Vegas odds here rather offensive. The Italian Stallion has gone 6-4-12-14 this season and rank inside the top-20 on Tour for so many key metrics this week it hurts including Strokes Gained: Approach – 3rd, Total Driving – 5th and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 10th. Molinari also stands 10th for Scrambling and 11th for Par 5 Scoring (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
F. Molinari -149 over K. Chappell (risking 1.49 units to win 1)
Camilo Villegas 250-1
We’re absolutely going to take a shot on Camilo Villegas, a player with a round of 63 at Riviera under his belt. Okay, so the rest of his round in 2016 didn’t quite go as well and he ended up in T37, but that backed up a T30 from 12 months prior to that so we’re willing to go on record as saying this is a stretch that suits him. The Colombian really prospers with his irons, ranking 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 44th for Shots Gained: T2G this season, so he could – theoretically at least – improve on his previous Riviera best. There’s a certain amount of form in place too. He was embroiled in that lengthy playoff at the RSM Classic earlier in the season you may recall, and has largely carried that form through with a T24 at the WM Phoenix Open. What we love about Villegas is that he ranks ninth on Tour for Back 9 Scoring Average and 28th for Birdies or Better. Do we expect to cash this ticket? Of course not but we wouldn’t be a bit surprised either if he’s near the leader board at some point and possibly on Sunday too. At this price, Villegas is worth a bet (Risking 0.2 units to win 50 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no heads up matches for Villegas
Patrick Reed 40-1
If you can get Patrick Reed at 40-1 for any event, he is worth getting onside with. We trust that 2017 will be the year that he really comes of age; yes, he was awesome at the Ryder Cup, but we mean in terms of winning tournaments on the scale of Spieth, Day etc. Reed certainly has the short game to excel at Riviera, and while he hasn’t caught light here in the past, this could be his time. Remember, a T68 at the WM Phoenix Open is an aberration on a form line that reads 10-6-12-23, which culminated in three rounds under par in the Pebble Beach National last time out. Dude is consistently a threat and has a great shot to be in the mix on Sunday. (Risking 0.2 units to win 8 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
P. Reed +101 over JB Holmes (risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units)
Shane Lowry: 66-1
There are a lot of great golfers on tour and it is not difficult to overlook someone but after our friend @gfienberg17 pointed out Lowry last week, we had a closer look. It’s not hard to admire Lowry’s work from afar of late. His T14 at Pebble Beach more than justifies his elevation to our main team at Riviera. It’s not a course he has played at before and so there is an element of risk attached here, but Lowry’s game seems purpose-built for the stretch given that his iron work has been exemplary of late. His gains were huge last time out – +2.46 for shots gained and +2.05 for Approach play – and that was in those horrendous conditions particularly across the opening two rounds. The Irishman’s upbringing in the windy Emerald Isle clearly stands him in good stead for these West Coast jaunts. The big man is playing with a smile on his face again after a torturous couple of years, and with a form line reading 33-16-14 we wouldn’t be at all surprised if that pattern continued into a strong performance again. Some other key stats include: Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 9th, Total Driving – 9th and Strokes Gained: Approach – 17th. (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head-to-head matchup (Played at bet365 72-hole match betting):
S. Lowry +100 over B. Steele (risking 1 unit to win 1 unit)
Branden Grace 66-1
You would expect the South Africans to have some kind of advantage this week given that they were born and raised on these Kikuyu grasses, and Grace is in good enough form to capitalize. His last start State-side came at the Sony Open where he finished T13 with four rounds of 68 or lower, and in 2017 he has also bagged a T13 in the HSBC Championship in Abu Dhabi in his only other start this year. Grace is fresh, well rested and will have been working meticulously on his game ‘behind closed doors,’ and like Reed he is another who should really be winning more often. Perhaps the Genesis Open will be a starting point (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head-to-head matchup (Played at bet365 72-hole match betting):
B. Grace +105 over K. Bradley (risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units)
LV Traders
Maryland at Northwestern
Pick: Northwestern
The Cats are coming off a strange week where they lost at home to lowly Illinois, before going to the hostile environment at the Kohl Center and defeating the mighty Wisconsin Badgers. Northwestern has acclimated to playing without junior shooting-guard Scottie Lindsay (out with mono). Evanston, IL is buzzing with the possibility of this team going to its first NCAA tournament in school history. This team is legit and now has a favorable match-up with Maryland. The Terps are led by superstar point-guard Melo Trimble but have struggled to find consistent rhythm on both ends of the floor. Maryland has benefited from a weak schedule and doesn't have enough offensive options to thrive against the solid NW team defense. Get ready to dance Evanston.