Scott Rickenbach
Philadelphia +10½
Big points here considering that Boston just got back from a tough road trip where they played 4 games in 6 days where all the games were played west of the Mississippi. Additionally, the Celtics have another road game on deck at Chicago before finally settling in for the All Star break. That means this game is part of a 6 game stretch in 9 days for Boston with all 6 games being played in a different city! Tough stretch for sure for the Celtics and, even if they do get up big here they are likely to start resting guys late in the game as they get ready for tomorrow's game with the Bulls. That said, the Sixers have great backdoor cover potential too because this is simply a team that will not quit! Philadelphia is off of a big road win at Charlotte on Monday and the 76'ers have now covered 18 of their last 24 games. The Celtics have failed to cover 6 of their last 8 home games including 4 straight. Also, Boston has gone 2-9 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Sixers are 13-6 ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog and there will be no let-up from the 76'ers here as they look to get one more upset before the All Star break. Philly is off tomorrow, Boston is not, grab the big dog here!
Brandon Lee
Creighton vs. Seton Hall
Play: Creighton -1½
The Bluejays aren't the elite team from the beginning of the season with Mo Watson sidelined, but I think this team is flying under the radar right now because of the injury. There's a lot more talent on the roster than Watson and Creighton has won 3 of 4 with the only loss coming to Xavier by 2-points. During this 4 game stretch, the Bluejays have shot 56% or better in 3 of the games and 48% in the other. That's the offensive efficiency we were seeing earlier in the year. I believe they have made the adjustments to not having Watson. Seton Hall is 9-1 at home, but are a mere 5-7 in Big East play and their home wins in conference play are against Providence, St. John's DePaul and Marquette. All teams that are worse than Creighton without Watson.
Mike Lundin
Blazers +8½
The Utah Jazz have dropped three on the bounce and put up a really pathetic performance in Monday's 88-72 loss to the Clippers. The Jazz recorded a season worst for points and shooting percentage (32.2) and are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
Tonight they'll take on a Portland Trail Blazers side that hasn't played well lately either, dropping four of its last five games. The Blazers are 0-5 ATS during that span, but they've won three straight head-to-head meetings with Utah the they're 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Vivint Smart Home Arena. This is way too many points to give the Blazers, and I think they'll keep this a close game.
John Martin
Blazers vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -8
Off three straight upset losses, the Utah Jazz want to wipe away this bad taste with a win in their final game before the All-Star Break tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers. The Jazz will be up against a Blazers team that just traded away Mason Plumlee, signifying that they aren't too interested in making the playoffs. And they're without two key contributors due to injury in Evan Turner and Al-Farouq Aminu. This team simply doesn't have much help outside of their star guard duo of Lillard and McCollum, and that has been a glaring weakness all season. Portland is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Jack Jones
Timberwolves +6
This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Denver Nuggets tonight. They made an NBA-record 24 3-pointers in a 132-110 win over the Golden State Warriors on Monday. Now they are going to have a very hard time coming back from that performance to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves by a margin tonight.
After all, the Nuggets are a mess right now in the health department. Wilson Chandler, Darrell Arther, Mason Plumlee, Emmanuel Mudiay and Kenneth Faried are all questionable to play tonight. Not to mention, Danilo Gallinari is out with a groin injury.
This has been a closely-contested series to say the least, which is why 6 points is a ton of value. Indeed, each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 4 points or less. Since this is the final game before the All-Start Break for the Timberwolves, I'm not concerned at all about their effort in this back-to-back situation.
Denver is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 home games off a double-digit win as an underdog of 6 points or more. The Nuggets are 9-19 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons. The road team is 36-15-1 ATS in the last 52 meetings. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Jimmy Boyd
Northwestern -2
I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a short home favorite against the Terrapins. Northwestern will once again be without leading scorer Scottie Lindsay, which I believe is playing a big part into this line. The Wildcats didn't have Lindsay last time out when they went on the road and knocked off Wisconsin 66-59 as a 11.5-point underdog. Northwestern is a team on a mission, as they are trying to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history and are going to bring everything they have at home, where they are a dominant 12-2 on the season.
The Terps aren't exactly rolling into this contest. While they won 86-77 at Ohio State in their last game, they caught a big break playing the Buckeyes without point guard JaQuan Lyle. Prior to that they had dropped their previous two, including a 64-70 defeat at Penn State. I also think Maryland could have a tough time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown at Wisconsin.
Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 with a line of +3 to -3, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 following a SU win, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite of 6.5 or less and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite.
Brad Diamond
La Salle vs. St Bonaventure
Play: Over 151½
Realize, in conference, late in the season, the defenses have a better idea of the opposing units which should help mitigate long scoring streaks. LaSalle is highly challenged on the defensive side of the equation and plays tonight looking for starting PG Powell to at least participate. He has been out quite some time with a nagging injury. No matter, we seem to have accrued some line value with the public perception via the above number, outlining the mindset of a lower-scoring game. Whether Powell plays or not, would expect a scoring out burst by the Bonnies who are averaging almost 79 points per game in the A-10. Just as important, if SBA does craft a lead in this encounter, expect the Explorers to be overly aggressive on defense, stopping the clock, while placing the Bonnies in an enviable position which will highlight their foul shooting abilities. They rank #19 (76.5%) in the nation on the charity stripe. Finally, SBA has gone OVER the 90-point line 5 times this season, and with this being a revenge game we should see a higher scoring game than projected by the Vegas brain trust.
Matt Josephs
San Diego State vs. Utah State
Play: Utah State +4
The Aztecs have split their last six games and have lost five of their six conference games so far this season. Their trademark defense has abandoned them outside of their own building allowing several teams to score over 70 points including San Jose State who put up 76 in a five point win for the Spartans. The Aggies have won three of their last five games including three straight at home. They are led by Jalen Moore and Koby McEwen who should get Shane Rector back in the lineup if he passes one more test. Utah State has always been a tough place to play. The Aggies have covered six of their 10 lined home games all season.
Ken Thomson
North Carolina St. +11
BOTTOM LINE- you SHOULD get NC State's BEST effort- Unless these kids don't like head coach Mike Gottfried, they know their head coach has his job on the line.....he needs to close strong or he is out at season's end and word has it, if the Pack gets pummeled again tonight at the hands of the Heels he could be out by week's end!
The 107-56 beat down at Chapel Hill last month set this season on a downward spiral for the Wolfpack and after an OT loss in Raleigh followed by a 5-point home loss to Miami things got bleak for Gottfried. Two blow-out roadies at FSU ( by 24 ) & at Wake Forest ( by 30 ) and the writing is on the wall.
NC State may also catch a break as both Isaiah Hicks ( hamstring ) and Kenny Williams III ( lower body ) could both be held out of this one. PG Dennis Smith ( 19 ppg/ 7 apg ) of NC State is a legit first rounder and should set the tone tonight if the Pack is to hang somewhat close. Terry Henderson, Maverick Rowan, Abdul-Malik Abu & Torin Dorn are all double digit scorers and need to dig deep tonight and play their "A" game. UNC is by far a better team and we will find out whether or not NC State is going to be any type of factor down the stretch or whether or not they have mailed it in, I think they are up for the game and if they can get some shots to drop early they will get the crowd behind them at PNC Arena. Remember, NC State was Pre-Season number 23 according to the CBB Bible, the Blue Ribbon- if the Pack wins outright, it won't shock me!
Nevada -5.5
Coach Mussleman should have Nevada re-focused to get their 20th win after getting worked by San Diego State. The Wolfpack put so much into their last home rout of rival UNLV that they didn't mentally or physically show up vs. the Aztecs.
Cameron Oliver will play despite minor foot injury for Nevada. Air Force has dropped their last two home games to Wyoming & New Mexico by 9 & 7 points respectively.
Word has it Coach Mussleman is not happy after two successive road loss blow-outs at Utah State & at SDSU and the Pack should be focused tonight.
Dave Essler
Maryland / Northwestern Under 139.5
Northwestern at home has totally been able to control the pace - and they play slow. From memory they've only had one home game eclipse this number (and I see we got it right). Maryland is super young, so I don't have the faith that they can continue to replicate their offense they've had, and in fact only scored 64 at Penn State in their last road game. Northwestern doesn't (hasn't been ) turning the ball over, so they're shouldn't be quick points for the Terps - and the Terps HAVE had some issues turning it over - if that happens, NW isn't likely to run. Both defenses are better than both offenses - so if this is in fact a close game that means both teams need to get near 70 points to lose this bet, and I don't see it.
JINKS Picks
The PGA Tour makes its annual commute up the coast to Riviera this week. Picks went 2-1 last week and had JB Holmes not went 4 under in his last 8 holes at Pebble, we would have taken home another winner instead of a wash with Pat Reed. Bets were somewhat limited last week, as the format is just awkward and throwing a bunch of amatuer hacks into the field makes it even tougher to gauge. We are back with a traditional format at one of the players favorite stops on tour this week, and the field is quite loaded. Some of the key attributes we look for this week include driving distance, greens is regulation, and par 5 scoring based on recent history. Let's go!
DJ over Spieth -115 - Dustin's name has been consistently at the top of the boards in this event but is yet to take home the trophy. The course undoubtedly sets up perfect for his game. Jordan's form is as good as it has been, but I usually like to fade players coming off a win. Public perception is high and it's just extremely difficult to repeat on tour as history has proven time and time again. The par 5's at Riviera typically decide the winner in this event...advantage DJ. He also has the added motivation of the chance to become World #1 with a win, something he has been chasing for a long time.
Sergio ov Day +120 - The current world's #1 player had his best showing in month's last week. That said, his game just doesn't seem to be all there yet. I was surprised to see his putting let him down last week, and still just doesn't seem comfortable off the tee like he used to be. I see indecision between him and his caddy far too often. Sergio, in my opinion, may be in the best place as a golfer he has ever been. His life is in order, he seems to have gone from hated Spaniard to lovable character, plus he just ran away from a talented field in Dubai for the win. He has 2 top 5's in the past 5 years and I am all aboard this week. Does Sergio finally get the major this year??? I think The Claret Jug may finally see his name inscribed this season.
Pieters ov Hadwin - +110 - The powerful Belgian is poised for a breakout year. He was one of the breakout stars of the Ryder Cup and showed me a lot. Plays mostly on the Euro circuit but is slated to play more events over here this season. I actually threw a couple bones on him 90-1 to win this week. Pieters is a former NCAA individual Champion, and he won that event at.....you guessed it, Riviera. Hadwin has been playing great golf lately but I believe there is a vast discrepancy in talent here, and you are getting the more talented player at + money.
Leishman ov An -130 - Leishman is a bomber and a very underrated quality scrambler, which is a unique combo. Australians have had a great track record on the west coast and particularly on familiar Kikuyu grass courses. Riviera and Torrey are the only stops on tour with this type of grass on the fairways and rough I believe so that is in his favor. An has never played a professional event at Riviera and Leishman finished in 5th place last year. He is my horse for the course this week as it sets up for his game nicely and much the opposite for An.
Steele ov Haas -115 - We have rode Steeley to a couple matchup wins so far this year and I am keeping the train on the tracks. Bill Haas is a former champion and has great history at Riviera, but that said, he is coming off back to back missed cuts. Steele hasn't missed a cut all season and has finished inside the top 20 in 4 consecutive events. He also had a big advantage in distance which will suit him well. Not sure exactly where Haas stands in terms of form as he hasn't played in the last 3 tournaments, but I know where Steele has been lately and it's on the first 2 pages of leaderboards.
Outright Winner : DJ 8/1 - primed for his first win of the season this week. I honestly don't love the odds so only playing this small, but out of the top contenders he would be my pick to win this week.
Longshot Winners : In terms of value, I think all three of these are worth a few chips.
Steele 55/1 , Pieters 90/1 , Leishman 66/1
Bob Balfe
Providence -5.5
Trevon Bluiett is out tonight, Davis left the team and Sumner is out for the season. Things could not be looking any worse for this Xavier team. Xavier crushed providence earlier in the year and tonight it’s time for payback. Look for the Friars to build on their win against top ranked Butler tonight.
Temple -5.5
Temple has had better rosters in the past, but never count out a Fran Dunphy coached team. I can’t get over ECU losing to USF. South Florida has to be one of the worst teams in the country with that line up and there is just no way I can trust a team like the Pirates who can’t make a foul shot or a three pointer for the life of them. This team is without their best scorer and things are not looking good for them.
San Jose State +7.5
San Jose State held Fresno to a season low 62 pts the last time they played and turned them over 23 times. Fresno is just running on fumes as the had a quadruple overtime game, players who had the flu and their top two players Edo and Russo in and out of the line up with suspension and injury. This is a team that just is not firing on all cylinders right now and its’ hard to get healthy in the middle of the season. Look for the Spartans to have a chance for another win.
Bruce Marshall
Dallas +5
Detroit kept the recent road-oriented series trends vs. Dallas very much alive with a 95-85 win at AmericanAirlines Center on Dec. 14. Mavs were stumbling at that time, however, still minus Dirk Nowitzki, while Detroit got a rare good game from PG Reggie Jackson, who scored 20 after being reactivated a short time earlier. Dallas was on 11-3 spread uptick into last Thursday vs. Utah, however, as Rick Carlisle appears to have emerged thru an ongoing pile of injuries with lineup combos that are working. Not sure we want to lay points with Pistons, because their defense has been suspect and because the aforementioned Reggie Jackson has averaged just 8.8 points on 30 percent shooting over a recent four-game stretch.
Eric Schroeder
While my big play tonight is in Big 12 play, my complimentary winner is in Atlantic 10 play, as I like the Massachusetts Minutemen (13-12, 3-9 Atlantic 10) over the Duquesne Dukes (9-16, 2-10).
I know UMass is on the road, at Pittsburgh, for this one, but Duquesne is in last place in the league and stumbling through a disappointing and rebuilding season. How bad has it been for the Dukes? Their top four scorers were gone coming into the season, and just one month til the postseason, their two most productive returning players - Darius Lewis and Eric James - are playing fewer minutes than they had been earlier in the campaign.
Four of Duquesne’s top six players in minutes played are freshmen or sophomores, and that youth has yet to mature.
I think early-season mistakes will have matured the Minutemen, who suffered costly losses to Saint Louis and Fordham. They are in after a win over Saint Joseph's, and should carry the momentum into this one.
Take UMass as my free play.
1* MASSACHUSETTS
Chris Jordan
Tonight, though, I want you playing the Creighton Blue Jays over the Seton Hall Pirates in Big East play.
It's a cheap number because of the injuries the Jays have been dealing with, but they've had plenty of time to adjust and battle to a 21-4 mark this season. Creighton is 8-4 in conference play, and 10-1 in games away from Omaha. The Jays have also covered seven of eight with a suitcase in hand.
Tonight on the road, I like Creighton to use its offensive prowess to blow past the Pirates, who have allowed nearly 70 points per game over their last five outings.
When these two met earlier this season, back in December, Creighton won 89-75, covering the 7' in Omaha. The Jays have their momentum going again, since losing two straight, as they've won three of four - including their two road games in that span.
Let's play the road team in this near pick'em game, as Creighton is the better squad and will win this one with ease.
3* CREIGHTON