Free Picks for ,Wednesday, February 1st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
CLIPPERS AT SUNS
PLAY: SUNS +4
Once upon a time, early in the current NBA campaign, the Los Angeles Clippers looked like a true force to be reckoned with. Then came the injuries and in the process, the Clippers have seemingly been reduced to rubble. They’re clearly not very good without Chris Paul, and even worse, there have been way too many games where they’ve seemed resigned to their fate before the game even gets underway.
On paper, the Clippers should be able to handle the lowly Phoenix Suns, and that’s even without the aforementioned Paul. But if you watched even a couple minutes of the Clippers epic disaster against Golden State last time out, I don’t see how a wager on this team can be considered at this point.
The downside is Phoenix is just plain lousy and the Suns have also lost four in a row. But that’s only marginally worse than the Clippers, who’ve dropped four of their last five and have not shown much energy in most of those games.
The NBA regular season is more about effort than anything else, and I actually trust Phoenix more than the Clippers at this point. If that sounds like a dismissal of the job Doc Rivers is doing in motivating his team, so be it. It’s sure possible the Clippers will wake up and play well tonight, but I’d rather not bet on that taking place. My choice in this game will be the Suns plus the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Clippers -3½
The Clippers are not only off of a loss, it was their worst defeat in a very long time. Los Angeles got crushed at Golden State on Saturday by a margin of 44 points! They have had 3 days off since then and you can bet that they'll be ready to go here. Even though the Clips have a rematch with the Warriors set for LA tomorrow night, there is no way they're going to look past this game. When professionals lose a game by a 142-98 final, they respond and this is especially true when you're a team that entered that game with a 30-17 record on the season. The Clippers are use to winning and, even though Chris Paul is out, Los Angeles did recently welcome back Blake Griffin. Additionally, big man DeAndre Jordan is likely to own the paint tonight against the Suns Tyson Chandler. The Phoenix big man just got dominated by Memphis center Marc Gasol on Monday and I expect more of the same here. The Suns just are not a very good team. They are 15-33 on the season and only 8-15 at home. As you can see from those records, home court hasn't been a huge benefit for Phoenix this season and the Clippers come in with a fire burning inside them after having to wait a full three days off before having this chance to atone for Saturday's extremely ugly loss. In terms of additional support for this play, note that LA is 16-6 ATS the last 3 seasons and 49-20 ATS long-term when they are a road favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, this is a very small number for the Clippers to cover here so any straight-up win is likely to also be an ATS win and the Suns are only 1-7 SU this season and 13-27 SU the past three seasons combined in divisional games. The past two years in February games Phoenix has gone 4-17 and I don't expect this one to get off to a good start for them either.
Jim Feist
Clippers vs. Suns
Play: Over 220½
The shorthanded Clippers are getting killed on defense, allowing 144, 121, 105 and 123 the last four games. They end a five-game road trip here and the Over is 15-7 in the Clippers last 22 road games. They face a bad Phoenix defense, #28 in field goal shooting defense, #29 in points allowed (112 pg), on a 35-17 run over the total. They are 16-5 over the total and home and the over is 23-6 in the Suns last 29 vs. the Western Conference. And the Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.
Tony George
Marquette vs. St. John's
Play: Marquette -4
Always tough to lay points on the road in conference action as we enter February and the noose gets tighter for road teams in conference play as every game now is ultra important, but willing to lay the 4 points here with Marquette whose offense is clicking and bear in min Marquette is a team who beat Villanova and then lost by 1 point to Providence after celebrating too much, and they also managed a road win against Creighton this season as well. I like this Marquette team guys, they can compete with anyone.
The offense in their last 5 games has matched their season stats as well scoring 83 ppg on offense and they are playing St Johns here on the road, who is allowing 78 ppg their last 5 games. Speaking of the last 5 games, any team in the nation would love to be shooting 52% from the floor in FG% and 44% from beyond the arc, and hitting 73% from the charity stripe as well, which Marquette is.
St Johns does have an advantage on the boards here, but at days end, Marquette has balanced scoring, are well coached, and better than their overall record would represent with some big wins under their belt, and I am willing to lay this on the road.
Scott Spreitzer
New Mexico vs. UNLV
Play:New Mexico -1½
We have played against UNLV at home a few times this season with success. They are in a tough spot in this particular case. The Lobos will be in revenge of a horrible loss at home on January 10. New Mexico led 37-31 at the half and while looking a little sluggish, it still appeared they'd win going away over the final 20 minutes. But UNM had two long cold streaks in the second half, including scoring just 11 points over the final 10+ minutes of game time allowing the Rebels to pull off the 71-66 upset as an 11-point dog. New Mexico has won four of five since then and will have to go without Tim Williams, who is sidelined by a foot injury. I do believe that's a loss that could certainly haunt them later, but tonight, I expect Williams' absence to pull the team together against a beatable opponent. The Lobos are off a loss at Reno, a game where the Wolf Pack couldn't miss a shot. That's not likely going to be the case from a UNLV team that ranks 332nd in FG percentage and 241st from behind the arc. UNLV is nearly as bad on the defensive end, while the Lobos have made more than 47% of their FGA. UNM aims well at the FT line and that should be a plus for us, also. New Mexico has covered seven of the last 10 meetings in Las Vegas, while UNLV has covered just five of their last 21 conference games.
Stephen Nover
Knicks vs. Nets
Play: Nets +2½
When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that. Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks. New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating. It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January. This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's. The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards. The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times.
Matt Josephs
Seton Hall vs. Xavier
Play: Seton Hall +6½
Xavier plays their first full game without Edwin Sumner as Seton Hall comes to town. Sumner was the PG which means a freshman takes over meaning the Muskies have two in the starting lineup. This is a group that will be searching for scoring without him. Trevon Bluiett and JP Macura are still leading the way but Sumner represented a nice chunk to the offense. Tyrique Jones averages just 2.9 points per game while Quentin Goodin adds 3.5. Seton Hall has four double digit scorers and is led by Khadeen Carrington and Angel Delgado inside and out. Their depth isn't great either, but they still have the veterans to play tough on the road. Seton Hall has lost four of their last five games as they struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Xavier though has also lost four of their last six including a home contest to Creighton. I think the road team is worth a look.
David Banks
Chicago @ Oklahoma City
Pick: Chicago +3.5
Having to carry the Oklahoma City Thunder has got to be tiring for Russell Westbrook. The Thunder are currently sixth in the latest Western Conference standings, but a recent loss to Cleveland proved that Westbrook just cannot do it alone. On a day when the star guard didn’t shoot particularly well (7-of-26), Westbrook scored 20 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, and dished out 10 assists. Despite his efforts, Oklahoma City lost 107-91. If his teammates don’t step it up, the Thunder will be in trouble on Wednesday night when they host the Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls are a game under .500 and in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. Recently, there has been some turmoil surrounding the Bulls. Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler called out some of their younger teammates questioning their dedication. Then, it was Rajon Rondo who questioned the leadership of both Wade and Butler. The drama led to consecutive losses to Atlanta and Miami before the Bulls regrouped and beat the Sixers 121-108 on Sunday.
Butler and Wade lead the Bulls scoring 24.5 and 18.9 points, respectively. Taj Gibson (11.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and C Robin Lopez (9.4, 6.9) handle the front court and head coach Fred Hoiberg is getting quality minutes from Doug McDermott who averages 10 points a game. The Thunder will again be without C Enes Kanter, who fractured his right foreman after hitting a chair. Kanter will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Kevin Rogers
Marquette at St. Johns
Play: Marquette -4
St. John's rallied late against Xavier on Sunday, but fell short in a five-point home loss. The Red Storm hosts Marquette tonight, as the Eagles had their two-game winning streak snapped by Providence on Saturday after they beat Villanova and Creighton. Marquette won all three meetings with St. John's last season, although the Red Storm cashed in each loss. However, the Red Storm was listed as a 5.5-point underdog or higher in each game.
Wunderdog
Virginia Tech vs. Virginia
Pick: Virginia Tech +11.5
This game has a lot of conference and postseason implications for both teams. At 16-4 and 6-2 in the conference, the Cavaliers share the top of the ACC standings with North Carolina, each with just two conference losses. At 16-5, Virginia Tech is in a log jam with four conference losses - a mark shared by five other teams, so this is a huge game for them. Virginia Tech has won at Clemson, Michigan, and Nebraska, and with a high focus here I think they hang tough vs. Virginia. The Cavaliers are off a tough, hard fought loss at Villanova, 61-59, and may have exhausted a lot of physical and emotional energy in that one, leaving the door open for the Hokies.
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Wednesday night is on the Marquette Golden Eagles minus a small number against the St. John's Red Storm. I was prepared to lay -4 points, but will take the cheaper number at -3, since the line has moved.
I get it, the Red Storm can be pretty good at home. But Marquette (14-7) is the better team, and has a high-scoring attack that put up 85 on a good night. The Eagles went 3-0 against St. John's last season - twice in the regular season and then in Big East Tournament play.
This year the Eagles are just as good, if not better. They beat then-No. 1 Villanova on Jan. 24, and come in off the obligatory letdown loss, a 79-78 setback to Providence.
Eagles bounce back, win and cover in this one.
4* MARQUETTE
Jack Brayman
After hitting my freebie on Denver last night, as the Pioneers demolished Oral Roberts 93-69, I'm playing another road team tonight with Texas Tech over Texas. The overnight line was a pick. It is now Texas Tech +1.5.
Nothing can sway me from this choice, not even a line move that is clearly a sharp move. Sometimes the wise guys are dumbfellas, and this game is one of those situations.
The Red Raiders are wrapping up the first half of their Big 12 campaign in Austin, and I think they have a good shot at winning this game.
Texas Tech (15-6, 3-5 Big 12) finished its nonconference home schedule undefeated for the third straight season following a 77-64 win over LSU. Texas Tech recorded a season's best 12 3-pointers - 10 in the first half - against the Tigers.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns (8-13, 2-6 Big 12) were served a 59-57 loss at Georgia on Saturday. And it's not as if Texas is threatening at home this season, as it split its Big 12 home games thus far, topping Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, while losing to then-No. 10 West Virginia and TCU.
The Red Raiders have won 10 of their 12 games when at least four players reach double figures this season, and it could happen tonight against Texas' sketchy scoring defense, which ranks 96th in the nation.
Take the road team here
5* TEXAS TECH
Chris Jordan
Throughout this season I've been high on the Kansas Jayhawks - still am, for that matter - giving them out randomly in spot situations. But tonight, against the Baylor Bears in a huge Big 12 battle, I'm afraid the oddsmakers are a bit off on this game. I made the line 2, maybe 3... but 6' points?
I'm taking the underdog.
Kansas returns after a huge win at Kentucky, and it could be a momentum push for the Jayhawks. It also could prove detrimental. Winning a game like that, at Rupp Arena, could supply too much confidence.
In comes No. 2 Baylor (20-1, 7-1 Big 12), which shares the conference top spot with No. 3 Kansas (19-2, 7-1), as this game will conclude the first half of league play. Point blank, the Bears are a dangerous team that can hang with any other team in the country.
Baylor is long up front with its bigs and its depth up front, it employs a zone defense that is probably better than it has ever been, and I've said this about "my Jayhawks," all season - they have a problem putting together 40 minutes of basketball. That won't bode well against a Bears team that ranks ninth nationally and first in the Big 12 by stifling opponents to 38.3 percent shooting.
Baylor has never won in Allen Fieldhouse, while Bears coach Scott Drew is 0-9 in games at Kansas.
The motivation for a win tonight will be on high, and I don't know if the lead will get bigger than five on either side.
Baylor has covered 14 of its last 17 with a suitcase in hand, while the road team is on a 19-7 run in this series. Take the road pup, as the Bears challenge for the outright win.
3* BAYLOR
Brad Wilton
Wednesday comp play release will be the Cavaliers to dump the Timberwolves.
I have a feeling that all of the talk between Charles Barkley and LeBron James is going to manifest itself of the hardwood tonight at Quicken Loans Arena.
Minnesota is playing their best basketball of the season, winners of their last pair and 5 of their last 6 overall. That fact keeps this line respectable, and should serve as motivation enough for the Cavaliers.
Cleveland is just 2-4 straight up their last 6 games, and King James has not been happy in his kingdom for quite some time. That's all fine and dandy, but I have a feeling tonight LeBron plays like a man on a mission, and the fact the Cavs have claimed 4 straight in this series, covering in 3 of the 4 wins tells me that the Cavaliers are ready for action tonight.
Play on Cleveland.
4* CLEVELAND