BRANDON LEE
Syracuse vs. NC State
Play: NC State Pk
I'll gladly back the Wolfpack at a pick'em at home against the Orange. NC State is primed for a big effort here after an ugly 25-point loss at Louisville, which wasn't a big surprise off that surprising upset win at Duke. I think we are going to see Syracuse suffer a similar letdown here, as they hit the road off a 82-72 win at home over Florida State. The big key here is the Orange are simply not the same team on the road. In fact, Syracuse hasn't won a single game all season away from home, as they are 0-7. On the flip side of this, the Wolfpack are 11-2 at home. NC State is also 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games after a loss, while the Orange are a mere 8-18 ATS in their last 26 after winning 2 or of their last 3. Syracuse is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's shooting 45% or better from the field.
ALEX SMART
Bruins vs. Capitals
Play:Capitals -150
The NHLs top team the Washington Capitals prepare to bounce back against the Bruins tonight after a loss to the resurgent NY Isles last night. The Capitals have played their best hockey at the Verizon Center, where they have won all seven of their contests in January and are 8-0-1 L/9 on the moneyline there. Note: Capitals All-Star G Braden Holtby, owns a 9-0-1 record over his last 12 starts, is expected to be between the pipes Wednesday.The Bruins have lost 7 straight in this series, and I am betting on another loss tonight vs a superior side.
JOHN MARTIN
Wolves vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -6½
After going just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall, I believe the Cleveland Cavaliers are finally starting to show some value tonight as only 6.5-point home favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves. The betting public has been burned by the Cavs time and time again and is finally starting to lay off of them. The Timberwolves are starting to get love from the books after winning 5 of their last 6 games coming in. But the wins have come against some of the worst teams in the NBA in the Nuggets, Suns, Nets and Magic. They also beat the Clippers without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin during this stretch. The Timberwolves' luck runs out tonight against a motivated Cavs team that has won four straight meetings by an average of 17.5 points per game.
MIKE LUNDIN
Bucks vs. Jazz
Play: Bucks +8
The Milwaukee Bucks are slumping big time, winning just one of their last nine games. Here they'll visit a Utah Jazz team that had won six on the bounce before dropping three of their last four, and I think the Jazz are asked to cover way too many points here.
Milwaukee played well its last time out and forced overtime in a 112-108 loss to Boston on Saturday, despite playing on the second night of a back-to-back set. The Bucks will come into this contest well rested and looking to build on that performance.
Utah is a low-scoring team, and it's tough to cover large spreads averaging fewer than 100 points per game. Take the points on the visitors.
BLACK WIDOW
St Bonaventure vs. Duquesne
Play: St. Bonaventure -7
Bets on favorites in a game involving two poor defensive teams that give up 74 to 78 points per game after 15 or more games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games are 42-13 ATS since 1997. The Bonnies will get going offensively tonight against a Duquesne team that allowed 101 points to Richmond last time out.
DAVE PRICE
Bucks/Jazz Under 198.5
The Key: Utah is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Jazz have held opponents to just 93.5 points per game on 42.7% shooting at home. The Bucks are only scoring 99.3 points per game on the road. The recent head-to-head history in this series suggests that this will be a defensive battle that stays well UNDER the posted total of 198.5 tonight. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with combined scores of 179, 165 and 157 points.
BRAD DIAMOND
George Mason vs. St. Louis
Play: St. Louis +6½
The Bills show off a 78-76 win at UMass on Saturday night, not an easy task. But, they are running in a 9-game cycle of win, loss, win, loss. They do have revenge on their mind, however, after STL knock them out 63-56 on their home floor back on the 14th of January. George Mason has covered 6-of-7 road games, but they come with a perfect 0-5 ATS road mark as a favorite. St. Louis (6-15) who has struggled this season does possess the home court edge with George Mason (14-7) traveling in back-to-back encounters. With St. Louis 5-0 ATS after a SU loss and 6-1 ATS in conference, we’ll TAKE THE POINTS in a value-added situation!
CHASE DIAMOND
Houston -7½
Big clash in the AAC as the 14-7 UCF and the 15-7 Houston Cougars square off. It's been awhile since I have seen such a square play. UCF is playing some bad ball losing 3 straight games Houston has won 2 straight games and is playing with revenge from a loss at UCF 77-70. This is a must win statement game for Houston and this line is set high for a reason Vegas knows this will be a blowout and wants as much UCF action as possible.
BOB HARVEY
Clippers vs. Suns
Play: Over 220
The Clippers (30-18, 23-25 ATS) have lost four of their last five games including a 144-98 beat down at the hands of the Golden State Warriors.LA has been without point guard Chris Paul (thumb) for the last five games and just recently got Blake Griffin (knee) back from an 18-game absence. Griffin scored 20 points in 23 minutes on Saturday against the Warriors in his second game back.
The Suns (15-33, 24-23 ATS)suffered its fourth straight setback on Monday dropping a 115-96 decision to the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday. The defense has struggled allowing 119.3 points during the stretch. One bright spot for the Arizona ballers has been the play of Devin Booker. The former Kentucky suffered through a porous 6 of 30 shooting night against Memphis but still scored 22 points for his 13th consecutive 20-point outing.
The two teams are a combined 59-37 to the OVER. Los Angeles is 16-8 to the high side on the road while Phoenix is 14-7.
The Clippers are 15-7 to the OVER in their last 22 games overall. The Suns are 5-1 to the OVER in their last six against the Pacific Division, 16-5 to the high side in their past 21 home games, and 23-6 last 29 against the Western Conference.
Los Angeles are 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall and 2-10 ATS last 12 overall. Phoenix is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games but just 6-16-1 in its last 23 vs. the Western Conference.
JIMMY BOYD
Clippers vs. Suns
Play: Suns +3
I'll back Phoenix as a short home favorite against the Clippers. Most will see this as a bounce back spot for Los Angeles after getting embarrassed 98-144 at Golden State this past Saturday. Typically it would be, but this is a unique situation, as the Clippers get a chance at revenge on the Warriors tomorrow at home. With this being the final game of a 5-game road trip, I have to think LA's only focus here is getting this one over with and getting home and ready for Golden State. It certainly doesn't help matters that they are still without their most important player in point guard Chris Paul.
Phoenix comes in having lost 4 straight, including a 96-115 defeat at home to the Grizzlies last time out. The fact that they are only a 3-point dog, really tells the whole story here, as the public will overlook the situation with LA and back the Clippers regardless. While the Suns haven't won much lately, they have been playing some competitive basketball, which is evident by their 8-4-1 ATS record over their last 13 games.
Clippers are just 6-14 ATS this season in road games against up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots/game, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 or more points in 3 straight games.
JACK JONES
Pacers vs. Magic
Play: Magic +1.5
The Orlando Magic are starting to play better now that they have gotten healthy with the return of leading scorer Evan Fournier to the lineup. They beat the Raptors 114-113 on the road as 11-point dogs before taking the Timberwolves to overtime as 8-point road dogs in their last two contests.
Now the Magic find themselves as home underdogs to the Indiana Pacers tonight. The Pacers are clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to going 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games coming in.
But the Pacers have done most of their damage at home this season. They have been a terrible road team, going 7-16 SU & 7-16 ATS on the season. They are giving up 110.9 points per game on 47.2% shooting on the highway this season.
Indiana is 2-15 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last two seasons. The Pacers are 2-11 ATS in road games off a win this season. Indiana is 1-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.
MATT FARGO
Hawks +1½
The hottest team in the NBA is certainly a surprise as Miami owns an eight-game winning streak and has not lost since January 13. The Heat do possess some signature wins over Houston and Golden St. over this stretch but prior to this, they were on a 1-10 run so which team should we expect tonight? The offense has been held to fewer than 100 points only once over the last eight games so the production is there but tonight presents a bad matchup. Atlanta is coming off that epic four-overtime game against the Knicks but the Hawks have had two days off since then so any fatigue is no longer there. After alternation wins and losses for nine games toward the end of January, the Hawks have won 13 of their last 17 games so while they have not been quite as hot recently as Miami, they have been player better for a longer stretch. Atlanta has been solid on the road at 14-10 and is one of only two teams in the Eastern Conference with 14 wins both at home and on the road. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning percentage below .400.
3G-SPORTS
Hawks vs. Rockets
Play: Over 222
Atlanta Dwight Howard is an exciting player who makes things happen when he is on the court doing what he does, rebound and get above the rim. His ability to get separation from his defender is excellent - the Hawks will keep him involved from the start matched up vs the 25th ranked defense of Houston. Howard is hitting his stride and will have himself a day. Houston needs to get their rim protection game going in the right direction, because they have struggled defending the rack this season - it isn't going to be enough. They have not attacked the paint as well as they would like to be, as the numbers indicate. Houston have also struggled with staying focused getting easy looks at the bucket, at times - with just a 29th ranked 2 pt shooting attempts this season so far, putting them in the bottom half of the league. Considering the Hawks play on Wednesday and the Rockets make 3's at an unbeleivveable clip,
SPORTS WAGERS
Evansville +4 over INDIANA STATE
We are in the buy-low, sell-high business so now would be the most appropriate tine to be buying up some Evansville because its stock has crashed through not only the cellar but the foundation, itself. Evansville has gone 1-9 SU in their previous 10 and are currently riding a nasty eight-game losing streak. On the road this year, the Purple Aces are 1-6 and they appear to be a team that cannot win at all. Teams of this caliber are often ignored by the market because not many want to get behind a team that isn’t winning. For Evansville, this is the opportune time to end the travesty and get its season going in the right direction again. Let us not forget that the Purple Aces were sitting at 9-4 at one point and were in the discussion for Missouri Valley Conference credentials. That time has come and gone, as the Purple Aces now sit in the basement of the league standings at 1-9. Despite their difficulties, the Purple Aces remain a strong defensive team overall even with their present snide. The Purple Aces are ranked 31st nationally in defending the three-ball (31.2%), 52nd in opponent field goal percentage (40.9%) and 40th in scoring defense (65.4 PPG). Evansville is also one of the most unlucky teams in the country, as their luck quotient sits at 331st. We have already covered this narrative in greater detail, but summarily we can proclaim that Evansville is actually better than its record indicates.
For the Sycamores, their offense has stumbled mightily in particular when faced defenses comparable to that of Evansville. Indiana State’s offensive efficiency rating sits at 242nd. Evansville has generated their defensive prowess against teams with stronger offenses than the Sycamores, as Indiana State ranks 241st in scoring and 301st in field goal percentage. What this essentially creates is an opportunity for the Purple Aces to display their strength on a Sycamores’ club that is very likely worse than they are. Indiana State has joined the Purple Aces on that icy cold floor with a matching conference record and an even worse overall record at 7-15. The Sycamores have also gone 1-9 SU in their previous 10 and have lost their previous four. The only reason the Sycamores are favored is because they are at home but it’s not warranted. Spotting points with weak teams is bad strategy too. With Evansville looking to get out of the doldrums and finish with a winning season, this is a quality chance for them to strike down the class clown of the Missouri Valley Conference. Evansville is in line for some wins and this situation sets up perfectly for that to occur. When you toss in some points, we must step in.
ILLINOIS ST -7½ over Northern Iowa
The Redbirds of Illinois State are quietly 18-4 but aren’t getting the credit they deserve because the market does not recognize them as a mid-major threat. The reason is because they’ve never been a mid-major threat before and they haven’t made the NCAA tournament in 18 years. Furthermore, the Redbirds do not have a signature win this year. With an RPI of 34 but no top-60 non-conference wins, the Redbirds are being sold short here and we’re on it. Not often do we get an underpriced 18-4 team but that’s the case here. The Redbirds win games but they don’t usually blow out teams’. Illinois State’s last two victories were by 10 and five points over Indiana State and Evansville respectively, the two last place teams in the conference. The Redbirds will now take a step up in class and lay significant points to a recognizable program that is warming up.
The Panthers have won five straight. They played a much tougher out-of-conference schedule than Illinois State, which included games against Oklahoma, Xavier (twice), Iowa and North Carolina. Not only does that give the Panthers more credibility, it also gets them more exposure because North Carolina, Oklahoma and Iowa games are often televised on ESPN. Bettors have seen Northern Iowa play while they have not seen the favorite. We often play underdogs that have played a tougher schedule, citing that it serves them well but we’re not so sure that applies here. The Panthers lost to Xavier by just eight the first time out but that only woke the Musketeers up into taking them seriously and then Xavier pounded them by 22 points six days later. The Panthers also lost to Iowa by 23 and to North Carolina by 43 but it does not stop there. NIU also lost to George Mason and Wyoming before losing five straight when conference play opened. The Panthers went 0-5 against Evansville, Missouri State, Wichita State, Bradley and Loyola Chicago. They lost by 12 to Evansville, 11 to Bradley, 14 to Wichita and 11 to Loyola-Chi.
Since taking over first place in the Valley with a convincing 76-62 victory Jan. 14 against the conference’s most successful program, Wichita State, the Redbirds mission is real. This is an outstanding defense that their coach, Dan Muller insists is one of the best he’s ever been a part of. That defensive accountability and high standard is part of the culture Muller, who spent 12 seasons under Kevin Stallings at Vanderbilt, brought to the program. The goal is the Big Dance but one loss will quickly end that unless they win the MVC and get an automatic bid. That’s possible but the Redbirds also have a chance to earn an at-large bid if they can keep it rolling and we highly doubt that this very average intruder will get in its way here.
LA SALLE -5 over UMass
The Explorers stand at 8-2 at home this season and own an overall record of 11-8 on the year. In addition, La Salle finds itself right in the thick of the hunt for the Atlantic 10, owning a 5-3 record in conference, which is far more impressive to that of Massachusetts who stands at 2-7. Regardless, there is some sort of prejudicial presumption that the Minutemen may be easy money here with points because the Explorers are perennial losers and have lost their last three. Much of the UMass appeal here could be derived from some of its previous results, most notably, its recent win over Dayton. We say that victory over the Flyers was nothing but fool's gold.
The analytics agree with us and further reinforce the notion that La Salle is short priced in this market. First off, La Salle has been one of the most efficient offenses in the country (28th according to Ken Pom) while playing the 76th toughest schedule in terms of strength. Most notably, La Salle accrued these numbers against a defensive strength of schedule that sits at 80th overall in America. This is a team that owns wins against contenders Rhode Island and Davidson while also owning wins over conference frontrunners and tournament hopefuls such as Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Southern and Bucknell.
While the Minutemen have had some bitter losses against some excellent teams, La Salle has the body of work that suggests they can hang with the best of the mids. Nevertheless, the Minutemen have won six of their last seven against the Explorers and this further supports the notion that the points here are a must play. However, we insist this La Salle team bares more of a resemblance to the 2011-12 and 2012-13 teams that made runs as far as the Sweet Sixteen rather than the usual .500 team that UMass has beaten up on most recently. In addition, UMass is a team with a lackluster offense that is quite inefficient (226th overall). It may be inferred that the Minutemen have had some misfortune come their way but this is also a team that played the 294th ranked schedule in terms of non-conference strength. This now sets up as an opportunity to take a plunge on a short-priced favorite with tremendous upside that is sick of losing to this team and now they have the superior team to do something about it.
SPORTS WAGERS
Waste Mngmnt Phoenix Open
The PGA TOUR waves goodbye to its Californian jaunt and heads east to Arizona this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, a tournament which has become a firm favorite among golf fans specifically for its TPC Scottsdale home. The famous ‘Coliseum’ 16th hole has become the stuff of legend, and it will be interesting to see how many more dreams of glory will be shattered in front of a packed auditorium come Sunday.
Three of the world’s hottest golfing talents will do battle in Arizona, with Hideki Matsuyama defending the trophy he won at the expense of a heartbroken Rickie Fowler in a playoff last year. Hoping to wrestle the silverware away from the Japanese sensation will be Justin Thomas, incredibly looking for his fourth win of the season already, and Jordan Spieth, JT’s great friend, who you suspect wouldn’t mind some of the limelight back.
TPC Scottsdale is one of the jewels in the PGA TOUR’s crown, and with some 500,000 visitors to the course each year it can also lay claim to being one of the most populated (and loudest!).
Measuring 7,266 yards for its Par 71, Scottsdale is a fairly tough test of credentials; barring Phil Mickelson’s outlier victory in 2013 of -28, the last four victories have come at either -15 or -16, so the players can expect another war of attrition in the desert.
The focal point of the course has to be those closing three holes, however. The Par Three Coliseum (16th) is wholly surrounded by grandstands with some 20,000 cramming in to create a heart-racing atmosphere. The 17th is a driveable Par 4 but with water lurking menacingly on the left of the green – many will remember this hazard as the ultimate downfall of Fowler 12 months ago. Some 37% of attempts resulted in a birdie last year, so this could be where prospective champions get themselves in front. A notoriously tricky Par 4 ends proceedings, with 86% of players getting around the eighteenth in par or worse in 2016. As a shortish Par 71, it won’t come as any surprise to learn that hitting greens – and lots of them – is key to victory. That’s one our focal points this year in trying to pick a winner but regardless, this is a great time to be wagering on golf because parity in the sport is high and any one of a number of longshots can win it. We just missed with Tony Finau at 60-1 last week but here are this week’s choices:
The following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.
The head to head match-ups will be bet at unless otherwise stated
Kyle Stanley 100-1
The 29-year-old returns to the scene of his only PGA TOUR win to date and he does so in fine form after an eye-catching T14 at Torrey Pines. In truth, Stanley hasn’t really done the business at Scottsdale since his victory, but he’s made the weekend in five of his last six starts in a form line that reads 14-36-21-MC-7-22. That T7 came at Shriners, which has often been touted as a decent pre-cursor tournament to this one, and Stanley’s seasonal make-up – he ranks inside the world’s top 30 for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, GIR and Proximity so far this term, is outstanding for a low-tier pick. Stanley is tied for 18th on tour in Par 4 scoring and ranks third in Greens in Regulation (GIR). At these odds, dude is worth a bet (risking 0.2 units to win 20).
Head to head matchup
K. Stanley -106 over R. Streb (Risking 1.06 units to win 1)
Scott Piercy 70-1
Piercy qualifies as a fully-fledged sleeper this week courtesy of his absent form – T41 and T57 are hardly going to set bettors hearts a-fluttering – but he’s a great buy low candidate. Piercy finished T4 at Mayakoba in November and bagged top-10s at the CIMB Classic and Safeway Open just prior to that, so it’s not as if he is stinking the place out. Here’s a guy who finished second in a gusty, Links style test at the US Open last summer and the stats suggest he will come alive this week. He’s gaining lots of shots off the peg (13th for Shots Gained: T2G) and on his approach to the dancefloor (17th for SG: ATG), plus there’s his penchant for shooting low numbers (1st for Total Birdies). Add into the mix a decent return from Scottsdale (45-MC-15-3-50-8-6-15), and we’re hopeful that Piercy will outperform his sleeper status. He can win (risking 0.2 units to win 14).
Head to head matchup
S. Piercy -110 over M. Laird (Risking 1.1 units to win 1)
Andrew Johnston 250-1
We are not interested in 8-1 or even 15-1 shots in these events because they do not pay off enough to make them worthwhile. We’re interedste din a small investment for a big payout and only need to hit one every year to make it worthwhile. We hit Jonathan Vegas last year at 100-1 and plan on hitting more big ones this year. This could be the week to get some Beef. You know the man, the beard, the legend: but do you know his game? Johnston was raised on English-style Links tracks and as such has become a fantastic GIR merchant; it was this unmistaken knack for finding greens that has catapulted him to success. He made the cut at both the ghoulish US Open and the PGA Championship, and bagged the first major top-10 of his career at The Open as well. In picking up his first title, the European Tour’s Open d’Espana, 2016 was something of a tranquil year for the 27-year-old. What does 2017 hold for the Beef? Key Stats included finishing T8 at The Open last year and he made the cut in his two other major appearances. Johnson also Gained +1.29 T2G strokes on the field on his sole PGA Tour start this season. Man, these are great odds on a guy that nobody is paying attention to.
NOTE: There are no heads-ups matches offered on A. Johnston.
Keegan Bradley 60-1
Three rounds in the sixties at Torrey Pines is a nice marker for how well Bradley is playing at present, and ahead of a trip to a course he has generally done the business on, that is eye-catching indeed. After an eagle at the 14th, he might have fancied getting his hands on the trophy last week but it wasn’t to be – nonetheless Bradley scores highly in many of our key metrics this week, especially his ability to hit greens (75% found so far this season) and his Tee-to-Green performance last time out (+1.89 strokes gained), and having gone four-from-five at Scottsdale in a chain that reads 24-17-MC-24-15 he has a chance, that’s for sure (risking 0.2 units to win 12).
Head to head matchup: NOTE: This bet is being made at BET365 72-Hole Match Betting
K. Bradley -133 over M. Leishman (Risking 1.33 units to win 1).
Emiliano Grillo 66-1
A return to a more forgiving track than of late will suit Emiliano Grillo down to the ground, a fantastic young talent left in the shade recently with the likes of Hudson Swafford and Jon Rahm bagging their maiden Tour titles. Perhaps this is finally the Argentine’s week to shine? Five cuts made in six starts this term and three top-25s suggest his game is there or thereabouts, and while it may seem like a long time ago, Grillo is a PGA TOUR title winner; earned at the Safeway Open in 2015. Strong showings at The Open (T12), PGA Championship (T13), and The Masters (T17) in 2016 suggest he should have an eye for Scottsdale and we’re on it (risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head to head matchup
S. E. Grillo -124 over P. Perez (Risking 1.24 units to win 1)