Larry Ness
Minnesota vs Cleveland
Pick: Minnesota
The 19-29 Minnesota Timberwolves play at the 32-15 Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday. The standings show that the Cavs own the East's best record and that the T-wolves are no better than 10th among Western Conference teams, 2 1/2 games back of the West's final playoff spot. However, the Cavs stumble into this game having won just FOUR of their last 11 contests while conversely, the T-wolves have won EIGHT of their last 11!
LBJ first had a back-and-forth with Phil Jackson, then called out his own team and most recently, finds himself in a war-of-words with Charles Barkley. Is LeBron taking out his frustrations for the Cavaliers' 7-8 January on anyone he can find? Cleveland just finished off LBJ's first losing month since 2006 and is searching for answers as a new month begins. "I've had worse months in my career," James told reporters. "Never get too high or too low about it, stay even-keeled. Just get better and make the next game or the next month better than the last one." Cleveland still sits atop the Eastern Conference but is only returning home for one game before embarking on another four-game road trip while dealing with the prospect of Kevin Love (back) sitting out several games.
Minnesota had playoff expectations this year but got off to a horrible start, despite the presence of Towns,Wiggins and LaVine plus the addition of highly-respected head coach Tom Thibodeau. The Timberwolves will try to take advantage of the struggling Cavaliers as they continue a steady climb up the standings in the West. Minnesota battled through a 111-105 overtime triumph over the visiting Orlando Magic on Monday, as Ricky Rubio stepped up with 22 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. Rubio (8.3-8.0 APG) continues to be the subject of trade rumors but he's averaging 12 points and 11.1 assists in his last 10 games. Then there is the trio of Towns (23.0-11.9), Wiggins (22.1-4.2) and LaVine (19.1).
Love (19.9-11.0) had an MRI exam reveal no structural damage but will miss at least Wednesday's game (against his former team) before being evaluated again. Shooting guard J.R. Smith (8.6) has been out since undergoing surgery on his thumb in late December and is not expected back until late March. Of course, the Cavs still have LBJ (25.6-8.0-8.5) and Irving (24.4-5.7 APG) but no Love or Smith. Then there is PF Tristan Thompson (7.3-9.6), who posted back-to-back double-doubles in wins over Brooklyn and Oklahoma City over the weekend but then did not attempt a shot on Monday in the loss to the Mavs, finishing with zero points and eight boards in 26 minutes. I'm taking the points with Minnesota.
Will Rogers
Charlotte vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State
The set-up: The 41-7 Golden State Warriors responded to a Jan. 6 home loss to the Grizzlies with five consecutive wins at Oracle Arena. The most recent three have been routs of the Cavaliers (35 points), the Thunder (21) and the Clippers (46). The 23-26 Charlotte Hornets come to Oakland tonight but come into the contest on a five-game losing streak while also losing 10 of their last 13.
Charlotte: The Hornets began a tough five-day, three-game Western swing with 115-98 loss at Portland last night. Charlotte has now lost eight straight on the road, last winning away from home back on Dec. 28th, winning at Orlando.The Warriors won the past five meetings between the two teams, including a 113-103 victory last week (Jan. 28) in Charlotte. Kemba Walker (23.3-4.1-5.5) is an All Star and seven other Charlotte players contribute between 9.0 and 14.9 PPG. That group is led by Batum, who averages 7.4 RPG and 6.0 APG along with his 14.9 points.
Golden State: Curry pleased fans in his hometown of Charlotte with a 28-point, six-assist performance when the Warriors beat the Hornets 113-103 in Charlotte back on Jan. 28. The homecoming included being honored by both his high school (Charlotte Christian) and college (Davidson). Curry (2.0-4.3-6.1) has scored 20 or more points in 13 consecutive games before sitting out Golden State's win at Portland on Sunday due to an illness. The 13-game stretch included 40- and 43-point games. KD (26.3-8.4-4.7) and Thompson (21.1) give Golden St. three 21-point scorers and then there is the do-everything Green (10.4-8.4-7.4).
The pick: The Warriors rank first in the league in points scored (118.0) and FG percentage (50.1) and in going 21.3 SU here at Oracle Arena, are averaging 122.1 PPG. The Hornets gave up 113 to the Warriors back in Charlotte and won't get away that easily, here. Meanwhile, the Warriors also rank first in defensive FG percentage (43.4) and three-point percentage (32.1). Yes, the Hornets have loads of depth but note that starting center Cody Zeller (10.9 & 6.6) missed his fourth straight game Tuesday at Portland after sustaining a deep thigh bruise against Washington back on Jan. 26. He's expected to miss again here and that's bad news, as Charlotte is 1-10 this season when Zeller has sat out.
LV Traders
Baylor at Kansas
Pick: Baylor
Baylor Bears travel to Lawrence for a Big 12 battle. The 1st of 2 meetings, and Head Coach Scott Drew n co. look to steal one in Kansas. They will be looking for their Defense to lead the way. They've been tested, they have one of the toughest schedules in the country. They only home allow opponents to shoot 39% FG, and are good at running teams off the 3 point line. A close game is expected, and Baylor will need to get off to a good start. This one could come down to the wire, and if it does FTs will be important. Baylor knocks down 72% (93rd), Jayhawks only 62% (337th).
Buster Sports
Cincinnati at Tulsa
Play: Tulsa 10.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats are the class of the AAC this year and they have not lost in Conference play going 8-0 so far. Tonight they go to the Donald Reynolds Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma to take on the Golden Hurricane who has been the surprise team of the AAC. Tulsa sits 3rd in the Conference with an 6-2 record and they have come a long way as most pundits had them picked for 8th or 9th in the 11 team conference. Tulsa had a nice win on Saturday against an up and coming Central Florida club and we believe they will be competitive tonight against the number 1 team in the conference. Early in the morning we noticed Cincinnati was a 7 point favorite at some sites we use. Now at the time of this writing they are a 10 1/2 point favorite. We know Cincinnati is the better club but the Conference road can be tricky and with our number at 8 it was a no play for us. There still are a couple of variables that will keep it from being a premium pick, but we will however now grab the generous points and make it our freeplay.
Oskeim Sports
Northwestern at Purdue
Play: Purdue -10
Northwestern is coming off its most impressive win of the 2016-2017 NCAA Basketball campaign - a dominating 68-55 win over Indiana on Sunday. The Wildcats are 2.6 points per game better than average offensively (75.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 72.4 points per game) and 10.2 points per game better than average defensively (63.7 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.9 points per game).
Despite standing at 18-4 SU this season, the Wildcats remain grossly underrated by the betting market. Indeed, Northwestern is 15-4 ATS overall, including 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games and 7-2 ATS in its last nine Big Ten Conference battles.
The Wildcats are also 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a win and 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games. Those results are certainly compelling, but Northwestern will be without leading scorer Scottie Lindsey, who has been ruled out due to mononucleosis. The talented guard is averaging 15.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game this season.
Purdue is enjoying a very strong season under head coach Matt Painter, entering tonight's game with a 17-5 record. The Boilermakers are 11-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at home this season where they are averaging 82.5 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field. Purdue is also limiting opponents to a mere 61.9 points per game on its home floor (37.7% FG%).
Purdue possesses a significant advantage in almost every important category, ranking 17th nationally in offensive field goal percentage (49.1), 5th in three-point field goal percentage (41.9), 24th in three-point field goals per game (9.6), 2nd in assists per game (19.7), 3rd in total assists (433) and 16th in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.45).
Purdue's defense is 8.1 points per game better than average (66.8 points per game to teams that would combine to average 74.9 points per game), and the Boilermakers are ranked 13th nationally in personal fouls per game (15.5) and 23rd in fewest fouls (341).
From a technical standpoint, Purdue is a profitable 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games, 12-4 ATS in its last sixteen games as a favorite, 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 conference affairs and 10-4 ATS in its last fourteen games overall. Purdue is also coming off a disappointing 83-80 loss at Nebraska, which snapped a three-game SU and ATS winning streak.
"We don't want to repeat the same thing," Purdue forward Vince Edwards said. "Guys come out with more of an edge after a loss. Every game has to be a big game for us, because we are trying to build an NCAA resume and win a Big Ten championship."
Mike Rose
Syracuse at NC State
Play: Syracuse Pk
We’ve entered the final month of the regular season, so it’s time for the contenders to start separating themselves from the pretenders. Syracuse’s offense looks to be coming around, while Tyler Lydon continues to distinguish himself as one of the ACC’s best defensive enforcers. He just blocked six shots against the Seminoles. NC State’s Abdul-Malik Abu has the frame and game skills to frustrate him a bit, but for how long? Abu has been whistled for a team-high 71 personal fouls, and if he’s forced to leave the game, the Wolfpack have nobody else to body up Lydon. Advantage Syracuse.
While there’s some nice pieces to N.C. State’s puzzle, it’s nothing more than an NIT team in my opinion. Syracuse is a regular participant in the Big Dance, but for it to keep its streak of getting an invite intact, it must start winning some games on the true road. I expect them to do just that in this spot, and then return home for a huge clash with Virginia on Saturday.
Andrew Lange
Austin Peay at Eastern Kentucky
Play: Under 154.5
Eastern Kentucky has been forced to play at a much slower pace this season due to lack of depth and talent. In nine OVC games, the Colonels have topped 70 possessions only once. They rank dead last in the league at 0.92 points per possession. And their average game score in those nine league games is only 133. Despite that, tonight's total against Austin Peay has been bet up to as high as 155. The reason is because Austin Peay doesn't play much of any defense. The Governors currently rank 345 out of 351 in defensive efficiency. In non-conference play, Austin Peay went seven of eight games allowing 96 points or more. Things haven't been nearly as bad inside league play as they've surrendered a more modest 78.7 ppg in regulation. Their average game score in OVC play is 153.8; a lower mark than tonight's total despite the fact they face the league's worst offense that generally plays at a slower than average pace. EKU enters on a two-game winning streak; both games fueled by solid defense. And like a lot of middle of the road mid-major teams, they tend to play better defense on their home floor. In 10 true home games, the Colonels have allowed only 67.4 ppg. This game actually has some meaning as the OVC Tournament takes only the top eight teams. Will need to have both offense and pace to top this number. I'm not sure we get both as we look to play it under the total.
Alan Harris
Philadelphia / Dallas Under 205
Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet when the Philadelphia 76ers hit the road to take on the Mavericks at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX on Wednesday night. The Sixers have posted an 8-3-1 record to the under in their last 12 games where they were playing with one day of rest and they have gone an excellent 17-8 to the under in their last 25 games versus a team from the Western Conference. The Mavericks have been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Wednesday as they have gone under the number in seven of their last eight games following an ATS win and they are a perfect 5-0 to the under in their last five games against a team from the East. The Mavs are also a lights out 9-4 to the under when facing a team with a losing record and they are 20-8 to the under in their last 28 following a straight up win. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 8-3 to the under in their last 11 head-to-head meetings at the AAC and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both teams to struggle on the offensive end in Dallas on Wednesday night.
Stephen Nover
Magic +2.5
I'm not buying into the Pacers as road chalk. Indiana not only has failed to cover the past seven times in that role, but lost straight-up each time.
Orlando has shown signs of improvement beating the Raptors on Sunday and falling to the improved Timberwolves in overtime on Monday. Both of those games were on the road. Now the Magic are home. It's Frank Vogel's first home game against the former team he coached.
Evan Fournier, the Magic's leading scorer, also is back after missing seven games with a foot injury. He played 23 minutes against the Timberwolves and should be less rusty here.
Vegas Butcher
Los Angeles Clippers -2.5
While the rest of the world is predicting 'gloom and doom' for the Clips, I'll back them in tonight's spot. They're still a very good team even without Chris Paul, and good teams don't like to get embarrassed like they did in their last outing. I know they have the rematch with Golden State tomorrow, but LA needs to start winning games, and I doubt they'll overlook this poor Phoenix team. The Suns' front-court will have a tough time with LA's and I like that advantage to translate on the court. Way too few points in this one, and I'll grab the Clips tonight.
Boston Celtics -6
After a 45 minute outing, I expect some serious regression from Lowry tonight. Given the fact that he has to face off against Isaiah Thomas, his job becomes even more difficult. Playing in a b2b and 3in4 spot, I expect fatigue to be a factor. Boston is on double-revenge here and they're playing their second consecutive home game (no travel) with a day off yesterday. I like them to pull away in the 2nd half.
Brooklyn Nets +2.5
Major 'fatigue' spot for New York. They're on a b2b and 3in4 spot, after playing a quadruple-OT game 3 days ago. Nets are fresher and of course younger. While they have nothing to play for, I'm sure these guys will be amped up to play their neighbors. I see a close game in this one.
GoodFella
St John's +2 1st Half
I would play this down to St. John's +0.5 fwiw. I see solid value on St. John's catching a bucket for the 1st half on their home floor this evening. Marquette is just (1-3 SU) their last 4 games when playing on the ROAD & they have struggled guarding the 3 pt shot on the road. The Red Storm can be very dangerous beyond the arc and I look for them to come out strong in the 1st half this evening. I also lean to St. John's for the full game as well, fwiw.