Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017

DAVE COKIN

MINNESOTA AT MARYLAND
PLAY: MINNESOTA +4

This should be one of the best games of the night. It sure looks like both the Gophers and Terrapins will be a part of March Madness, and I think it’s fair to offer that these two teams have each exceeded expectations.

The public will be playing Maryland in this game, which isn’t difficult to fathom considering they’re at home and they’d been covering like crazy before getting stopped at Wisconsin last game.

My perspective is that there’s very little difference between these two teams. That brings the revenge motive into play and I tend to like road dogs in this scenario when they’re at approximately the same level as the team laying points.

It sure doesn’t hurt that the Gophers are very hot right now, and actually appear to be in slightly better current form than Maryland. The visitors are also starting to get better production from their bench. I think we get a really tight game tonight and getting more than one possession with Minnesota is a take for me.

Sleepyj

Tennessee -3.5

Projections say this line comes down, but I feel the situation here for this game really helps Tennessee....Vols are on the bubble right now and dropping this game derails any chances unless they win our in the SEC Conf tournament. vols have beaten Vandy this year already and that will bring in some confidence tonight at home...Vandy is 5-8 on the road this season...Vols at home are pretty good at 10-4....Stat wise Tennessee really has a lot of advantages...Vols take the PPG, Assists, Rebounds, TO's Blocks, Steals, FTA...Vandy wins a few areas..Fouls, 3pt & FT %, but on the road I doubt they get the calls tonight and it won't be easy shooting from deep here tonight...Last time these teams played rather even. Vols shot very good, but so did Vandy...Vols are the better team and I think the stats and situation helps them get over the hump here...They also know a loss can be disaster for big dance hopes....Vols have a chance to go 4-0 or 3-1 the last 4 games...This is almost a must win here tonight...Vandy isn't in the conversation right now, nor will they be if they win or lose this game...Vols get the win tonight.

Ken Thomson

Rider -6

Payback from last month's game in Manhattan where Rider led for 3/4's of the game- look for the Bronc's to blast the Jaspers by double digits. Jimmie Taylor & Kahlil Thomas combine for 29 points per game for Rider and they will both be focused for revenge!!

Scott Spreitzer

Northern Iowa vs. Indiana State
Play: Northern Iowa Pk

The Panthers are off the ugly loss at Wichita State, which ended a four-game winning streak. But Northern Iowa has won nine of their last 11 games and have covered seven of their last nine when the line has been in single digits. Once again, the Panthers play a deliberate brand of basketball, holding teams to 64 ppg. They couldn't hang with the talent the Shockers possess, but Indiana State is one of the worst shooting teams in college basketball, making less than 42% of their FGA. Northern Iowa generally takes care of business when they're supposed to, entering Terre Haute on a 12-3-1 ATS run against teams playing less than .400 basketball on the season. Meanwhile, the shooting-challenged Sycamores are on a 1-6 ATS slide against teams with a winning record.

Marc Lawrence

Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee
Play: Vanderbilt +3½

Edges - Commodores: 5-1 ATS as conference road dogs this season; and 3-1 SUATS with same season revenge in this series. Volunteers: 0-4 ATS home versus sub .600 opponents this season. With the Vols off a revenge win over Missouri, and with a revenge game on deck against South Carolina, we recommend a 1* play on Vanderbilt.

Mike Anthony

Louisville vs. North Carolina
Play: Louisville +6

Louisville has won six of seven entering Wednesday's huge game in Chapel Hill, N.C. While UNC is undefeated at home, this is too many points to give a Cardinals team that is shooting better from deep and plays with ferocious defensive intensity. Louisville has plenty of size and athleticism to handle UNC on the boards. Grab Louisville +6 here to at least keep it close.

Rob Vinciletti

Missouri State vs. Bradley
Play: Missouri State -2.5

The Bears have a big size edge in this game and are 7-1-1 ats in the series vs Bradley. They have won 8 of 10 vs losing teams. Bradley is 4-14 vs winning teams and 1-9 with road loss revenge. They are 0-11 with just 2 spread wins off a conference win and 0-5 after shooting 50% or higher which they did in their rare win last out over Evansville. Missouri St has won the last four games in this series and have outscored the Braves by 13.0 ppg in the last three meetings. Make it Missouri St tonight.

Jim Feist

Butler at Villanova
Pick: Under

These teams have plenty of scoring options, but don't ignore how great the defenses are. Butler is third in the Big East in points allowed, fourth in field goal shooting defense. Butler is 4-1 under the total on the road and 4-1-1 under against winning teams. Villanova is tops in the Big East in points allowed, second in field goal shooting defense. Villanova is on a 14-4 run under the total, 12-4 under in conference play. And when these rivals clash the Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Jeffrey James

Washington Capitals -150

The Capitals will be extra focused here since they enter this game off of 2 straight SU losses where their goal scoring was much lower than normal. Washington is 7-2 their last 9 games against losing teams and they are 14-5 on the road with a game total of 5.0. The Flyers enter off of a west coast trip and they are only 8-16 in their game after taking on a Western Conference opponent and 0-4 after playing 3 straight road games. Look for the Capitals to get back on the winning side of the ledger here at Philly.

SPORTS WAGERS

Omaha +5 over DENVER

The Denver Pioneers are 16-11 and in third place in the Summit and will now be gearing up for the conference tournament like the rest of the Conference. The only thing in question now is the seedings for the upcoming tournament, which is very much up for grabs, as four or five teams can improve their seedings. That aside, the Pioneers and Mavericks have similar records with the host holding both an edge in overall record and conference record but once again, records can be so misleading.

Denver is not the better team here. The Pioneers went into Omaha earlier this year and as a four-point dog, they lost by nine and now they’re spotting five points. Denver has played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country and are still just five games above .500. Its strength of schedule ranks 303rd in the country and it’s near impossible to point out its best win because they are all weak. It’s even difficult to point out Denver’s best opponent this year because there are none.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks have played USC, K-State, Pittsburgh, Iowa State and Iowa among others in their out-of-conference schedule. That schedule ranked 61st in the country in terms of strength, which is 242 positions higher than Denver’s SOS. The Mavericks lost by just 10 to USC, they actually beat Iowa and lost by just 13 to Kansas State. The competition level that these two have faced respectively is not comparable at all. Yeah, Omaha is on the road here but 16 of its 27 games this year have been on the road so it is something they are very comfortable with. We’re getting the battle tested, superior team plus some significant points in a game they can surely win outright.

Oklahoma St +125 over KANSAS ST

K-State is a 18 or 19 win team that appears to be headed to the Dance but there is also a good chance of them ending up in the NIT. The Wildcats had a huge win over Texas on Saturday that relieved some of the pressure they were feeling but pretty it was not. The Wildcats have lost six of their last eight games all in the conference. They have beaten up mostly on cupcakes all year with very their only signature win coming against West Virginia over a month ago. Despite the victory over Texas on Saturday, the Wildcats are still feeling the heat and there is a great chance that they’ll be the second most relaxed team on the court here. They are also the second best team.

On January 18th, K-State went into Oklahoma State as a 3-point dog and put up 96 points in a 96-88 victory. That was then, this is now. Regardless of outcome here, make a mental note to include Oklahoma State in some of your brackets because this is not the same team that started Big-12 play by going 0-6 after that aforementioned loss to the Wildcats. Oklahoma State will be a #10 or #11 seed in the upcoming main event regardless of what happens the rest of the way. However, they are taking nothing for granted and will once again very likely show up and play hard. No team in the country is having more fun than the Cowboys are now. In the past nine games — eight of them wins — the Cowboys have grown more confident while improving their defense and continuing to thrive offensively. In four of their past five wins, the Cowboys have trailed either at the half or at some point in the second half. In five of its six losses to start Big 12 play, OSU actually led at halftime before coughing up the lead. The difference? As the wins have kept coming, the Cowboys have the look of a team that knows it is good and they have a swag about them that is not cocky, it’s confident. OSU might have the best offense in the country and they’re a freight train right now that is not wise to get in front of. OSU is on a major roll, which is not a fluke and they are about to open some eyes very soon. Get on them before that happens. Cowboys outright is the call.

SPORTS WAGERS

The Honda Classic

This is probably going to be a good event to wager on in terms of a longshot hitting because three favorites in a row (Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama) have cashed in the past three weeks, respectively. The favorite this week is Justin Thomas. With that, the PGA TOUR now makes it annual leap to the Florida Swing at the testing PGA National course in Palm Beach, the 10th anniversary of the Honda Classic touching down at this famous stretch.

There’s no surprise to learn that only one former winner here in the last five years has reached double digits under par. The 7,158 yard Par 70 was initially designed by Tom and George Fazio, although it was given a going-over by Jack Nicklaus in 1990; a makeover which created the infamous ‘Bear Trap’ of holes from 15-17. Plenty of hopes have faded and dreams have been crushed at this treacherous trio. The fairways and greens are heavily bunkered and as we have made the switch from California to Florida, so, too, do we make the transition from Poa Annua to Bermuda grass – something for deep stat nerds like us to note down.

Despite the move from LA to Florida, the general feeling is that conditions will be Californian in their nature: breezy and with outbursts of rain. Those players who got stuck into the last few weeks should feel right at home. There’s also a sense that the golfing test will be similar to those of late: Pebble Beach and Riviera featured non-penal conditions off the tee but hard-to-hit greens, and although the change from Poa Annua to Bentgrass is of significance, recent form is also a huge factor. This being a Par 70 track there are only two Par 5s to attack, and boy you had better hope your picks make the most of them. Adam Scott played the longer holes at -6 last year in a string that read 4-4-3-4-4-5-5-5, so doing the business here early in the week is key. With four of the Par 4s measuring 450 yards or more, bogey avoidance will also become a key metric. Lastly, strong winds are expected again and PGA National is a fairly exposed track so expertise in gusty conditions is another key.

The following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.

The head to head match-ups will be bet at unless otherwise stated

Wesley Bryan 125-1

After finishing tied for fourth at Riviera you might think the cat is out of the bag regarding this outstanding young talent, but no, the Vegas sportsbooks have him available at a sweet price that we’re not about to miss. That’s very surprising, as even a quick bit of research will note that in his sole start at PGA National in this event Bryan finished a hugely impressive T9 as a rookie. The 26-year-old has had a pretty mixed start to life on the main tour, but his game looks ideally suited to shorter tests where greens are hard to hit. In gaining +1.36 shots from tee-to-green and +1.08 on approach last week, he served notice of that (risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

Note: There are no heads up match-ups available for Bryan

Daniel Berger 33-1

Here’s an impressive young talent who we expect to get back to winning ways in 2017, and what better event than the one he narrowly missed out on victory back in 2015. That playoff defeat started a fire in Berger and the Florida native (who also went to college in the State such is his love of the place) would claim the first title of his career at the St. Jude Classic in June of last year. It has been a mixed bag so far in 2017 but his best performance of the year to date came in his last outing at the WM Phoenix Open, where after an opening 71 he followed up with 66-66-68 to finish T7. Coming back to his home turf, Berger will surely be confident of making a decent fist of another shot at the title. Berger ranks 17th on tour in Scrambling and 23rd in Birdie Average, two key areas that figure to aid his quest here. Although we prefer odds higher than 33-1, this is a field and event that Berger figures to thrive in (risking 0.2 units to win 6.6 units).

Head-to-head matchups:

D. Berger +101 over D. Woodland (Risking 1 unit).

D. Berger +121 over P. Casey (Risking 1 unit).

Russell Knox 28-1

The more we look at Knox for this event, the more we like him. Scotsman Knox has played PGA National three times – 26-3-2 is an impressive run here by anyone’s standards, and you could get the sense that in wind conditions and on Bermuda surfaces, he is as likely as anyone to prosper. After bagging a pair of titles in 2016 and two runner-up spots, it has been a quiet start to the new term for Knox although a T3 at the OHL Classic back in November was an obvious highlight. A missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open has put the dampeners on a mini run of T17 (Tournament of Champions) and T11 (Sony Open), but having enjoyed plenty of time off of late expect a much-improves showing from the Scot this week. Knox is 5th on Tour in Birdie Average, 6th in Greens in Regulation and 10th in Par 5 Scoring Average (risking 0.2 units to win 5.6 units). 2.6

Head-to-head matchups:

R. Knox +127 over S, Garcia (Risking 1 unit).

R. Knox -122 over L. Oosthuizen (Risking 1.22 units to win).

Ollie Schniederjans 60-1

The 23-year-old has banked top-10s at Torrey Pines and Riviera this season already, so we know that he can handle the more difficult tracks and that experience should bode well for his third visit to the PGA National. He missed the cut last year but finished T9 as a rookie in 2015, and so at this kind of price he has to be worth a go. Schniederjans was one of the best tee-to-green exponents on show last week with +1.74 strokes gained T2G and +1.08 in approach, and it confirms our suspicion that this is a young man with an excellent short game. If he could get his putter going he could well claim the first PGA TOUR win of his career sooner rather than later (risking 0.2 units to win 12 units).

Head-to-head matchup:

O. Schniederjans +120 over E. Grillo (Risking 1 unit).

Luke Donald 66-1

The Englishman loves playing at PGA National, and so it has been refreshing to see him play himself into some kind of form over the past few weeks. A T23 at Pebble Beach was backed by a T17 at Riviera last time out, and those are nice numbers for a guy who has his name inscribed on the Honda Classic trophy and who recorded back-to-back top-10s here in 2014 and 2015. Statistically Donald is nothing special but sometimes players just fit courses, regardless of what the data is telling you. (risking 0.2 units to win 13.2)

Head-to-head matchup:

L. Donald -101 over M. Kayner (Risking 1.01 units to win 1 unit).

Will Rogers

Minnesota vs. Maryland
Pick: Over

The set-up: The 20-7 Minnesota Golden Gophers have gone a log way to securing NCAA at-large status by winning five straight games, upping their Big Ten record to 8-6. They will travel to College Park Wednesday night to face the 24th-ranked Maryland Terrapins, who are 22-5 overall, including 10-4 in Big Ten play after Sunday's 71-60 loss at now-No. 16 Wisconsin.

Minnesota. Richard Pitino took over at Minnesota for the 2013-14 season and won the NIT in his first year with the Gophers (Minnesota finished 25-13). Year 2 saw the team fall to 18-15 (just 6-12 in Big Ten play) and then came last year's disaster, when Minnesota finished just 8-23, including a woeful 2-16 in Big Ten games. This year's team opened 15-2 (3-1 in Big Ten) but suffered a five-game losing streak from Jan. 11 through Jan. 28, before rebounding to win five in a row. "They’re a very mentally tough group,” Pitino told reporters. “Maybe playing in those early (overtime) games has taught these guys. We’ve just found a way to tighten up those little things and make big free throws when we needed.” Five of Minnesota's 14 Big Ten games have gone to OT this season, so far. A quartet of guards are led by Mason (15.0 & 5.3 APG), joined by Coffey (12.3), McBrayer (10.4) and Springs (9.9). Forward Murphy (10.7 & 8.9) and center Lynch (8.3 & 6.4) are the best frontcourt players.

Maryland: The Terrapins are seemingly are a lock for the NCAA Tournament but where the team is seeded will be determined by how Maryland finishes the regular season and how it fares in the Big Ten tourney. Melo Trimble (17.6-3.6-3.5) won Big Ten Player of the Week after averaging 29.5 points in two games but it's been an uneven season for the player who came back to Maryland to improve his stock in the draft (not sure he's done that yet!). A pair of freshman, fellow guard Anthony Cowan (10.4 & 3.7 APG ) and 6-7 forward Justin Jackson (10.8 & 6.2) are also in double digits.

The pick:Minnesota has played four straight overs and Maryland had two straight overs before Sunday's game fell right on the closing total. Expect a high scoring game in this one.

Larry Ness

Oregon St. vs. Stanford
Pick: Stanford

Stanford fired Johnny Dawkins (Mr, NIT) after the Cardinal finished 15-15 last year (Dawkins' eighth). There was only one NCAA appearance in that run and while Stanford captured two NIT titles in his tenure at Palo Alto, enough was enough. However, Jerrod Haase's first season with Stanford has hardly been anything special, as the Cardinal check in at 13-13 overall, including 5-9 on Pac 12 play.

Oregon State visits Maples Pavilion tonight, 5-23 overall, including 1-14 in Pac 12 games. The Beavers' season ended for all practical purposes when 6-8 forward Tres Tinkle (20.2-8.3), the coach's son, broke his wrist after six games. Guards Thompson (16.8 & 4.4) and McLaughlin (11.1-3.1 APG) plus the 6-10 Eubanks (14.7 & 8.) are quality players but the Beavers just don't have enough talent. Oregon State opened the season by going 4-9 in non-conference play but lost its first 14 Pac 12 games, before breaking through this past Sunday. The Beavers rallied from a 13-point second-half deficit to record their first league victory, 68-67 over Utah. Stephen Thompson Jr. set career highs with five three-pointers and 31 points "Our guys deserve to taste some success. Not one of them has gone south on us. They bring it every day,” Oregon St head coach Wayne Tinkle told reporters

Speaking of "big wins," the Cardinal took down hated rival Cal in their last game, 73-68 this past Friday (only game that week). The 6-8 Reid (17.3 & 8.6) had 19 points and nine rebounds against Cal plus helped foul out both of the Bears’ centers, Guard Marcus Allen continued his late-season surge with 11 points but Pickens had a team-high 23 points. The 6-9 Humphrey (9.4-6.4) joins Reid up front with the team's best perimeter players being Pickens (12.5), Allen (7.2), Cartwright (7.1-3.5 APG) and Sheffield (7.0),.

Reid missed the first meeting between these two schools, a 62-46 Stanford win in Corvallis back on Jan 19, but Humphrey scored a game-high 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting in last month’s win over the Beavers. Stanford fired Dawkins because it wanted NCAA not NIT appearances but an NIT appearance in Haase's first season might be a welcome sight, after all. Stanford is 20-2 at Maples Pavilion against Oregon State since 1993 and the Beavers are 0-11 SU on the road this year, getting outscored 80.8-to-63.0 PPG in lined games.

Ken Thomson

Arkansas -4.5

The Razorbacks got their only signature win two games ago vs. #21 South Carolina. The Gamecocks however are not playing solid ball themselves and are an endangered species in the Top 25 polls. Therefore Arkansas must not take any chances and needs to pile up more wins down the stretch of the SEC schedule. If they can win out or go ( 3-1 ) in their last four Conference games they should be in the field providing they don't get blown out first round of the SEC Tournament.

After this game with the Aggies the Hogs take to the road at Auburn & at Florida before returning to Fayetteville to close out the regular season vs. Georgia.

The Razorbacks won a close game at College Station by a bucket in January and should get some early resistance from Texas A&M. The Aggies lost one of their starting five key cogs in DJ Hogg. He is a key piece of Billy Kennedy's squad.

Tonny Trocha-Morelos will need to pick up some of the slack for the Aggies. A&M was solid in their home rout vs. Auburn last time out but this road test should be more than they can handle. The Hogs have two sharp shooters in Hannahs & Macon who have combined for 109 triples at a 39% clip and strong man Moses Kingsley ( 12 ppg / 8 RB ) who mans the paint.

I like Arkansas to pull away down the stretch fo an 8-15 point home win!