Scott Rickenbach
TCU vs. Kansas
Play: TCU +13
Kansas is 13-2 since starting the Big 12 portion of their schedule in late December. However, the Jayhawks have only 1 win by more than 12 points out of all 13 victories. In fact, Kansas has seen 10 of those 13 wins come by 7 points or less. That said, there is great line value with the big number posted on this game as TCU looks to avenge a 6-point home loss to the Jayhawks earlier this season. The Horned Frogs are catching Kansas off of a hard-fought win at Baylor. Even though TCU is only 6-9 SU since late December, more than half their losses have been by a single digit margin. The Horned Frogs are 4-2 ATS (and 5-1 SU!) this season when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. The Jayhawks are just 2-9 ATS in home games this season and that includes an ugly 1-6 ATS mark when they are a home fave of 12.5 points or more. When off of a win against a conference foe, Kansas has gone 3-8 ATS this season. Of course I expect the Jayhawks to get the win here but look for this game to be decided by single digits as the Horned Frogs catch Kansas a little "complacent" after that big win over the Bears in Waco.
Wunderdog
Fordham @ Duquesne
Pick: Over 136
Duquesne has gone OVER four games in a row after its 77-70 loss to George Washington on Sunday when Mike Lewis II led the Dukes with 22 points. Duquesne has allowed an average of 82 points over its last six games with five of them going OVER. The Dukes won the first meeting 75-72 on Dec. 30 and the game went OVER by 13.5 points even though both teams shot under 40 percent. Emile Blackman scored 17 points for the Dukes and JaVontae Hawkins scored 18 points for the Rams. Duquesne has gone OVER six of its last eight home games and eight of the last 10 meetings have gone OVER. The linesmakers have posted a low total but Duquesne allows 75.1 points per game while scoring 71.6. Also, Fordham gives up an average of 71.3 points on the road.
Ken Thomson
East Tennessee St -7
I'm convinced that East Tennessee State is ready to take over the number one spot in the Southern Conference tonight. The Buccaneers play host to the current top seed, Furman tonight. The Paladins currently hold a half game lead over ETSU.
The Bucs come off a rout of Chattanooga as they swept the Mocs, the preseason media pick to win the Conference. Furman and UNC-Greensboro have been the two big surprises and it was UNCG that went to Furman on Saturday and dismantled the Paladins and short circuited their 10-game winning streak. I see East Tennessee State grabbing that baton tonight and running Furman out of the building in a double digit win. TJ Cromer scores ( 19 ppg ) and should have a big game as the Bucs look to stay hot, winners of eight of their past nine games since getting pummeled at Furman early January.
Also note the stat when teams have a streak snapped after double digits in wins or losses, the same result usually happens the next time out. With Furman winning 10 straight and then losing on Saturday they fall into this category, that of course is straight up and not vs. the number but I'm convinced ETSU will roll in this game and get the crowd into it big time!
Art Aronson
Boston vs. Anaheim
Play: Anaheim
Since Boston made the move to insert Bruce Cassidy as the interim coach, the Bruins have been on quite the tear, coming into this one having won four straight, most recently a hard-fought and extremely satisfying 2-1 OT win over San Jose. The Ducks are currently tied in second in the Pacific, but they come in off a listless 3-2 road loss to Arizona. With a game tomorrow night in LA though, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors also getting caught looking ahead to this difficult part of their schedule. From a trend based stand point, this one does indeed also set up very well for the home side, as note that Boston is in fact a poor 13-16 (-6.9 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and just 1-4 (-3.2 units) following a three-game unbeaten streak, while Anaheim is 2-1 (+1.2 units) this year after playing to three consecutive “unders.” All things considered, we think that the DUCKS are definitely worth a second look in this matchup.
Mark Franco
St Bonaventure vs. St. Joe's
Play: St Bonaventure -5
The St. Joseph's Hawks are ranked 273 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 42.2% while attempting 58.9 shots per game. The Hawks shooting percentages include 65.6% for free throw percentage and 32.7% for three point percentage so far this season.The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are ranked 117 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 45.2% while attempting 58.5 shots per game. The Bonnies shooting percentages include 77.0% for free throw percentage and 36.3% for three point percentage so far this season.
Jesse Schule
Boise State vs. Nevada
Play: Nevada -4½
The Nevada Wolfpack host the Boise State Broncos in a battle for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. Both teams are tied with a 10-4 record within the conference, and the winner will move into a first place tie with Colorado State. Nevada was the favorite coming into this season, and they've failed to disappoint at home. They are 11-1 on their home floor, averaging 81.7 points per game on 47.3 percent shooting in those contests. They've led by double digits at halftime in each of their last two home games, and I think they'll get off to a good start here against Boise State. The Broncos lost their last road game at New Mexico, and they trailed the Lobos by double digits at the half in that game. The Wolfpack have been a cash cow at home over the last few seasons, going a stellar 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.
Teddy Davis
Minnesota vs. Maryland
Play: Minnesota +4½
We already know that the betting public will be all over Maryland here. Maryland did win the first meeting between the two, but they shot nearly 60% from three! They are now getting a Gopher team who is red hot and playing with a ton of confidence as they have won 5 straight. Minnesota wants revenge in the worst way, plus a win here would really go a long way toward the tournament.
Chip Chirimbes
Oregon vs. California
Play: California +4.5
No. 6 Oregon has been a buzz-saw just cutting up Pac-12 opponents winning their last three and eight of their last 10 both straight-up and ATS. The Ducks are now just one-game behind Arizona. California won seven of eight before dropping their last two and were dismantled by the Ducks 86-63 in Eugene last month and are looking to repeat last year's 83-63 home win over the Ducks. Even though Oregon is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall they are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Revenge is sweet.
JINKS Picks
Thanks to all who followed along last week as we dished out another outright winner and went 3-2 in matchup plays. We are coming to you live this week from Palm Beach Gardens, where we will personally be in attendance at the Honda Classic. Enough already of the brutal weather that plagued the west coast swing and led to extensive delays, unpredictable conditions, and 36 hole Sundays. Cheers to 80 and sunny all weekend…hopefully.
The par 70 Champ Course has consistently played as one of the hardest on tour. Everyone loves to play up the impact of the Bear Trap, but in all honesty, 2 of those 3 holes are par 3’s that should be easy pars if you avoid the water. From year’s past, I’ve noticed the Par 4’s leading up to the trap often determine the winner (number 14 is very tough). Previous tournament experience is important, but keep in mind that a ton of the field lives within a few miles of PGA National and regularly tee’s it up on the Champ. Water comes into play on 16 holes and there are over 100 bunkers out there so Greens in Reg., ball striking, and strokes gained tee to green are my top indicators of success this week. Here we go!
Casey over Woodland -115 : Simply a power-rating play here with minimal juice. In terms of statistical indicators for success, they are pretty close but I have Paul rated a good 10 spots higher than Woodland. He has made 3 straight cuts with 2 finishes inside the top 12 here. Casey is also a much better putter. Scrambling and avoiding bogeys are also his strong suits which come into play as birdies are always tough to come by at the Champ Course.
Dufner over Molinari +105 : Duf always plays well after a long layoff. He hasn’t played on tour in over a month but he possesses the craftiness around the greens that will be required at PGA National. He also has a solid tournament history here and Molinari has only played this event twice (65th last year, and MC in 2015). I think the wrong player is the favorite in this matchup.
Horschel over O’Hair -115 : I’ll be honest, this play scares me a bit, but most of the best plays do. Billy has that "go for broke" attitude that can definitely get you into trouble at the Champ. That said, he loves FL courses and the native understands the Bermudagrass. An 8th place finish last year should give him good vibes heading into Thursday and he ranks 2nd on tour the season in Greens in Reg. Billy Ho FTW!
Kisner over Grace -110 : Grace is coming off a hectic travel schedule and a missed cut at this event last season. Kisner seems to have finally got his mental game under control and has 2 top 10’s so far in the season. I have him ranked 2nd on tour in strokes gained tee to green. He has squeaked by the cut line the last 2 years but should have better course knowledge this time around. That combined with current form calls for a play on Kisner this week.
Scott over Fowler -140 : Yes I know, that’s a hefty price. The juice is worth the squeeze on this play. Scott played very well last week and he loves tearing up the Florida swing. The defending champ seemingly hit every green last year and has finished 1st and 12th the last two times playing the Honda. Rickie is a great player, but I always feel his overall popularity inflates his lines in these matchups. He too has a great history at the Honda, but Adam Scott is simply the best golfer on the course this week and everyone knows it.
Outright Winner : Russell Knox – 28/1 – best value on the board. Has finished in the top 3 for 2 of the last 3 years. Always plays well in high winds. If he can drop some putts, his name will be up there near the top and should make for a fun Sunday sweat at these odds.
Longshots I Like : Lingmerth 90-1 and Wes Bryan 120-1
Brandon Lee
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Play: Oklahoma State +4
The Cowboys are worth a look here as a road dog against the Wildcats. Oklahoma State lost at home 88-96 to Kansas State back on 1/18. That just so happened to be the turning point of the season for the Cowboys. Since that loss, they have gone 8-1. That was also a turning point for K-State, who has gone just 3-6 since that win over Oklahoma State. I know the Wildcats are strong at home, but we just saw them lose badly at home to ISU and also fell at home to TCU earlier this month. I'll take the team playing their best basketball of the season getting points in a big time revenge spot against an opponent that's slumping any day of the week. Keep in mind that Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog this season.
John Martin
Oregon vs. California
Play: California +4
The Oregon Ducks have only had seven true road games this season, going just 4-3 in them. Now they head to Cal, where the Golden Bears are 14-2 at home this season, only losing to Virginia by four and Arizona by five. I like this Cal team that ranks 1st in the Pac-12 in both scoring defense and field-goal percentage defense. The Bears are also second in the conference in rebounding margin at plus-7.3. They beat Oregon 83-63 at home last season and are 14-4 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Ducks.
Jimmy Boyd
Oregon vs. California
Play: Oregon -3
I really like the value here with the Ducks as a short road favorite against the Golden Bears. No disrespect to Cal, who is 18-8 overall, 9-5 in the Pac-12 and 14-2 at home, but they are outclassed against an elite Oregon team. Note that the Ducks already smoked Cal 86-63 at home earlier this season. I just don't believe that a change in venue is going to be enough to propel the Golden Bears to an outright win, which is basically what it would take with this short line. Keep in mind that Cal's two home losses were both against elite teams in Virginia and Arizona. Oregon is every bit as good as both of those teams, if not better.
The Ducks enter off a 101-73 win at home against Colorado and in doing so shot 16-29 (55.2%) from behind the 3-point line. Oregon is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 off a conference home win, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a conference win by 20 or more points, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 75 or more points in 4 straight games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they shot 50% or better from behind the 3-point line.
Jack Jones
Providence vs. Creighton
Play: Providence +7
The Providence Friars need to keep winning if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. They are doing a good job of it with back-to-back victories over Butler and Xavier at home. In fact, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall as they've clearly been an undervalued commodity.
Now Providence will be out for revenge from a 64-78 home loss to Creighton in their first meeting back on January 7th. The difference is that the Bluejays had star PG Mo Watson Jr healthy for that game, but now he's out for the season.
We've seen Creighton lose at home to both Marquette and Xavier without Watson Jr. I wouldn't be surprised if they get upset here, too. Creighton is at a big disadvantage in rest after playing on Sunday, while Providence has had a full week to prepare having played last Wednesday.
Providence is 11-3 ATS as an underdog this season. The Friars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Providence is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog. The Friars are 8-1 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
Dave Price
Louisville vs. North Carolina
Play: Louisville +8
The Key: This is a big number for a team that caliber of Louisville to be catching tonight at North Carolina. The Cardinals are 22-5 SU on the season, but the evidence of them being undervalued is in the fact that they are 17-8 ATS in lined games. UNC is being overvalued here off its 65-41 blowout win over Virginia, but that was a Cavaliers team that is really struggling right now. Louisville will fight you tooth and nail for 40 minutes and won't be a pushover here. The Cardinals are 11-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season. UNC is 6-15 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who score 84 or more points per game this season.
Black Widow
DePaul vs. Georgetown
Play: DePaul +13
Bets on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off six or more consecutive losses in Wednesday games are 44-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. This situation's record is 6-2 this season alone. The Blue Demons have actually lost 10 straight now, but are 4-2 ATS in their last six games. Oddsmakers are overadjusting for this losing streak knowing that the betting public wants nothing to do with them. I think this is a flat spot for Georgetown off its 17-point loss at Creighton. The Hoyas now have virtually no chance of making the NCAA Tournament unless they win the Big East Tournament. They will just play out the string at this point.