Brad Wilton
Wednesday's comp play release is the Lakers plus the points at Detroit.
Los Angeles is playing some competitive basketball right now, as the Lakers hit Auburn Palace with a win at New York over the Knicks under their belts.
The Lakers have now covered 6 straight and 7 of their last 8 with the points, so look for this generous impost to treat them kind once again versus the Pistons.
Detroit has been able to win and cover each of their last 3 at home, but in this series they stand at just 4-11 against the spread the last 15 series meetings.
The Pistons will face San Antonio on Friday night at home, so its easy to imagine Detroit doing just enough to get past Los Angeles tonight while leaving the "back door" wide open for another underdog cover by the pointspread-surging Lake Show.
Take Los Angeles.
2* L.A. LAKERS
STEVE JANUS
Wizards / Nets Over 222½
Play Over - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more. This system is 55-22 (71%) against the total over the last 5 seasons.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
California vs. Arizona State
Play: Arizona State +3
After opening up at a -1.5 yesterday, the Golden Bears are up to a 3 point choice as of mid-morning Wednesday. We are getting excellent line value with the home dog Sun Devils here. Arizona State has covered 4 of its last 5 games but they still are still flying under the radar due to their poor SU record. The Sun Devils recent schedule has been road-heavy and they will take advantage of home court here where they are 7-4 this season. Conversely, for Cal, this is just their 5th game away from home in the past two months! Look for that to be a problem for a Golden Bears team that is only 3-4 SU in road games this season and one of their two PAC-12 wins came by just a single point. Now they are laying 3 at Arizona State with much bigger game on deck as California is at Arizona next. This is clearly a lookahead spot for the Bears and I look for them to fall short. Cal is 6-12 ATS as a favorite this season. The Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 145 to 149.5 range and 12-1 SU in their last 13 home games with a total posted in that same range. Off of a confidence-boosting PAC-12 road win, look for ASU to keep the momentum building with a home here.
BRANDON LEE
Heat vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -3
Milwaukee is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Heat. Miami comes into this game having won 11 straight, but were fortunate to keep it going last time out in a 115-113 win at Minnesota. That was only the the 3rd road win during this recent run. It just so happens the last time the Heat loss was at Milwaukee back on 1/21. The Bucks won 116-108 as a 7.5-point home favorite. The fact that they are only a 3-point home favorite this time around, tells you how much love the Heat are getting right now. Milwaukee is a team I think could go on a big run and are fresh off a 25-point blowout win at Phoenix. Bucks will be welcoming back last year's leading scorer in Khris Middleton tonight, as well as their two new additions in Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes. Keep in mind Miami is only 9-17 on the road this season and just 15-29 ATS over the last 3 years off a road win.
JOHN MARTIN
Pacers +3.5
The Indiana Pacers are playing well enough right now to take down the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers. They have gone 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Pacers are a tremendous 20-6 at home this season and will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd tonight. The Cavaliers are in a letdown spot here after their overtime win over the Wizards on Monday. The Cavs are just 13-10 SU & 9-14 ATS on the road this season. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games when coming off three consecutive covers as a favorite.
MIKE LUNDIN
Suns vs. Grizzlies
Play: Suns +9
The Memphis Grizzlies have won five of their last six games, but I think they'll struggle with the motivation here coming off an 89-74 triumph against San Antonio, and with Golden State on deck on Friday. Tonight the Grizzlies will host a Phoenix side that has lost seven of its last eight, but the Suns put up a good fight in a 111-106 loss to New Orleans on Monday. The Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.
TONY GEORGE
Clippers vs. Knicks
Play: Clippers -1½
Clippers without Chris Paul is still a take here against the fading Knicks who have issues off the floor and quite frankly Phil Jackson as General Manager is killing them and dragging them down, and all this against their best player. LA has 2 huge roadies in front of them that they will struggle to win so this is a must win for them against a very beatable opponent.
DAVE PRICE
New Mexico vs. Air Force
Play: Air Force +1
The Air Force Falcons have played very well at home this season. They are 10-4 SU & 6-3 ATS in lined games. They are scoring 80.1 points per game at home on 47.3% shooting. This offensive juggernaut will be too much for a struggling New Mexico squad. The Lobos have lost 2 of their last 3 with a 17-point loss at Nevada and a 10-point home loss to San Jose State as 10.5-point favorites. The reason for their struggles is that they just lost second-leading scorer Tim Williams, who averages 17.8 PPG and 7.0 RPG on the season. Not to mention third-leading scorer Dan Duiper (6.7 PPG) is questionable with a concussion. The home team is 7-1 SU in the last 8 meetings. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss. New Mexico is 2-9 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Falcons are 9-2 ATS as a home underdog or PK over the last 2 seasons.
BLACK WIDOW
UC-Santa Barbara vs. UC-Irvine
Play: UC-Irvine -16½
Bets on home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (UC-Irvine) off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite, with a winning percentage between 45% and 55% on the season are 30-5 ATS since 1997. Look for the Anteaters to take out their frustrations on hapless 3-18 UC-Santa Barbara at home tonight.
TEDDY COVERS
Bulls vs. Warriors
Play: Bulls +14
Betting the Warriors off a rare loss was a real moneymaker last year. That has not been the case here in 2016-17. Golden State is coming off their eighth loss of the season, at Sacramento last weekend. Following their first seven defeats, the Warriors won their next game by 8, 10, 29, 8, 10, 11 and 10 points.
Note the lack of big blowouts – only once in those seven contests did the Warriors win by enough of a margin to cover tonight’s spread. And the Warriors 3-4 ATS mark in those contests must come with an asterisk. Two of the three pointspread covers came when Golden State was -9.5 in games they won by exactly ten points. And with Draymond Green dealing with a bum knee while Zaza Pachulia and David West are both out, this Warriors front court rotation is awfully thin right now.
My clients and I cashed a pair of Big Ticket winners with the Bulls last week, in their blowout win at OKC and their wire-2-wire spread covering loss in OT at Houston. And there’s every reason to think that the Bulls remain a ‘bet-on’ team again tonight as they continue their road trip, whether Jimmy Butler suits up or not.
Let me use an excerpt from my last write-up in support of Chicago:
‘The Chicago side of the equation screams ‘bet-on’. Every bettor in the world heard about the Bulls locker room meltdown last week, with Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler taking potshots at their teammates following an ugly blown lead at home against Atlanta. But from ALL indications – the players, the coaches and the local media – this ‘chemistry crisis’ has been overblown, and things have been just fine in practice and on the court. Clearly, there’s no irreparable fracture in this locker room.
Dwayne Wade: “Nothing needs to be repaired. Yeah, we're fine. We come in to play basketball and compete, and we've done a good job of that the last few days, with the exception of the Heat game when we laid a dud. But the last few days have been great competition, so we move on from there." I believe him!”
But the betting markets are lagging behind; unwilling to support a Bulls team that has gotten so much negative press of late. This is a value-laden team right now; quite capable of making a little run between now and the All Star Break.
BRAD DIAMOND
Wizards vs. Nets
Play: Nets +11
At first look it appears to be a no-brainer with the 30-21 Wizards visiting 9-43 Brooklyn up in New York. However, there are some key factors to consider, especially the line which has jumped to -11 Washington this morning. Washington is 30-21 SU but, just 11-11 ATS L22 on the road. And the Wizards come in with a lackluster 0-4 ATS mark on the road versus “losing” home units. Also, they bring emotion from a difficult 140-135 OT loss to Cleveland recently. Washington is 0-2 ATS after an OT encounter this season. The staggering Nets who are just 10-17 ATS at home, have lost by an average of 8.9 points per game in their L8 games, and show on a merciless ten game losing streak overall. They have played aggressive basketball the last six games, so they should be up for this battle with the Wizards. Granted Washington has won 5 straight in the series but, that mental frame of reference could have them looking past this frustrated unit. With the home team in this series 5-2 ATS, we’ll back the underdog to stay within ATS range.
JACK JONES
Wizards vs. Nets
Play: Nets +11
The Washington Wizards had their 17-game home winning streak come to an end in excruciating fashion Monday. Lebron James banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime, and the Cavs went on to win 135-140.
After losing to the defending champs that way, I expect the Wizards to suffer a hangover effect here against the Brooklyn Nets. The air has been lifted from under their sails, and they will fall flat tonight against Brooklyn.
The Nets are undervalued right now due to their current 10-game losing streak. However, they have been very competitive here of late. Seven of their last eight losses have come by 9 points or less, which is fewer than this massive 11-point spread.
Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (BROOKLYN) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1996.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Pacers +3½
Wow, do people realize that Indiana has won 12 of their last 13 home games against Cleveland. I didn't! The Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Both clubs enter this game on winning streaks with the Cavs winning the last three and the Pacers have won their last seven. The Pacers are 17-6 straight-up at home and while Cleveland is off that epic overtime road win against Wizards. The 'beat-goes-on.'
JIMMY BOYD
NC State vs. Florida State
Play: NC State +13½
I really like the value here with the Wolfpack catching a big number against the Seminoles. I think this line has been inflated due to Florida State coming in off a 48-point blowout win at home against Clemson, which followed a 18-point win at Miami. On top of that NC State enters having lost 3 straight. The key here is this Wolfpack team is a lot better than their 3-8 record in the ACC would suggest. We saw how good this team can be when they went on the road and beat Duke as a 16.5-point dog.
You simply can't count this team out with an elite player like they have in freshman guard Dennis Smith Jr. I look for him to show up here to not only help the Wolfpack end their 3-game losing streak, but make a statement against Florida State's elite sophomore guard in Dwayne Bacon. This is also a tough spot for the Seminoles off that huge blowout win against the Tigers and a much bigger game on deck at Notre Dame. Wolfpack are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games after failing to cover in 5 or 6 of their last 7, while FSU is 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons when facing a marginal winning team (WP of 51% to 60%).
ART ARONSON
Pacers +3½
The Cavs come in having won three straight and five of their last six, but could be poised for a letdown here after their 140-135 OT win on the road at Washington on Monday. The Pacers have won seven straight, most recently taking down OKC 93-90 at home. These teams met on November 16th and Indiana scored the 103-93 upset in front of the home town crowd. Would we bet on the Pacers in a seven game series against the Cavs? Probably not. But Indiana is playing its best basketball of the season right now and we think it can catch the defending champs a bit flat-footed tonight. Note that Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS win, while Indiana is 8-1 ATS in its last nine against the Eastern Conference.