SPORTS WAGERS
OKLAHOMA ST -1½ over Baylor
Oklahoma State is quietly on a tear while being one of the hottest teams in the country. The Cowboys have ripped off four straight including a huge 82-75 win at then #7 West Virginia as a 10½-point road dog. They also crushed Arkansas 99-71 in the Big 12/SEC Challenge and disposed of the Sooners in a big instate rivalry game. OSU has played the toughest schedule in the nation so we can overlook their sluggish start in Big 12 play. With the wheels back on the wagon, the Cowboys are now the #1 scoring team in the conference and the #7 scoring team in all of college hoops. OSU has one of the best free throw shooting guards in the Big 12 in Juwan Evans. That's a big deal, as many of these games come down to both teams trading shots from the line in the final minute. Evans is second in in the Big 12 in attempts and is shooting 79.6 percent from the line. He's been a huge reason for the Cowboys recent success by averaging 21.3 points per game over the last four games. Evans' aggressive play could be the difference.
One situational play we are always aware of is when a ranked team is slightly favored over an unranked team. It's natural to be enticed by a small line and scoop up the seemingly superior favorite but what we have here is something a little different. We've got the #6 ranked Bears getting points against an unranked foe but a closer look reveals that we actually have two teams headed in opposite directions. The Cowboys are shooting lights out while the Bears are in the middle of a tough schedule that has them coming off losses to both Kansas and Kansas State and that has seen tem drop to second in the conference. As Baylor has found out, there are no easy wins in the Big 12 and now they must travel again to face a team that is heating up. The Bears swept this season series last year and outlasted the Cowboys 61-57 a month ago in Waco but those losses should only fuel this determined host. We trust we’re getting a cheap price on this up and comer because of misleading records that has influenced the market. Pencil us in for that.
SPORTS WAGERS
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
The host course is one of the most famous in world golf, with its spectacular ocean vistas belying what is a pretty tough test of skill. A short track at just 6,828 yards for its Par 72, the complexity comes in finding its tiny greens; among the smallest on the PGA TOUR. The host of five majors in the past, there is plenty of room off the tee at Pebble Green but finding those greens – especially in typically Californian conditions – can be a testing assignment.
This really is a strange and challenging tournament to predict. Prior to 2016, the previous champions had been Mickelson, Snedeker, and Walker, so we might assume that the ‘cream rises to the top’ at Pebble Beach but then 12 months ago, Vaughn Taylor ended a 10-year wait for a trophy, Lefty threw away a commanding lead, and Hiroshi Iwata was second heading into Sunday before finishing T4. Iwata was a 1000/1 bet in Vegas. Sometimes with wind-affected golf, it is simply better to expect the unexpected.
Remember, these three tracks are all similar in nature: comfortable off the tee with plenty of room, but tiny of green – making Greens in Regulation (GIR), Proximity and all those other stats so important. Taylor hit 75% of greens and gained +5.05 and +4.67 strokes on the field from Tee-to-Green and on the approach, and he was even afforded the luxury of putting like a drain (-0.45 SGP). His Off-the-Tee numbers of +0.07 confirm that strong work off the peg is almost inconsequential.
Only three non-US players have won this event since it began way back in 1937. The last was Vijay Singh more than a decade ago, so perhaps drafting an all-American roster is smart this week. Another unexpected and possibly inconsequential correlation is between Singh, a Fijian, and Snedeker, both a champion of Pebble Beach and the Fiji International tournament. On weeks as tough as this to make accurate predictions, we’ll take any help we can get.
You would think there is a correlation between the Farmers Insurance Open and this event, given that both are held at a similar time of year in California on rotational, Poa Annua courses. There is a link there certainly, with both Freddie Jacobsen and Jonas Blixt recording top-10s in both in 2016 and other signs from Kevin Streelman (T4 at Farmers, T17 at Pebble Beach), Jimmy Walker (T4 to T11) and JB Holmes (T6 and T11) to suggest our instincts are correct. So form at Torrey Pines is of key concern to us too.
This is a tough field so a short priced player like Jordan Spieth (8-1) or Justin Rose (12-1) could pop but we are not in the business of playing short prices when there is so much value on players at 50-1 or more. This year, we’re seeing so many longshots in contention on Sunday and hopefully we found some in the following:
The following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.
The head to head match-ups will be bet at unless otherwise stated
Cameron Smith 90-1
Smith is on record as saying he prefers shorter courses in general and particularly the triumvirate he will tackle this week. A T11 finish here in 2016 suggests that he isn’t bluffing. At just 23, Smith hasn’t quite made his breakout yet but you sense it might be coming. He’s made cuts in 7/8 starts this term and has a trio of top-30 finishes to his name already, with T10 at Shriners and T11 at Sanderson Farms. He stuck to his task manfully at Torrey Pines to finish T33, and while his T42 at the WM Phoenix Open was less inspiring he did finish just four shots off another top-20 finish. Smith continues to improve and with a ranked 32nd on tour in one-putt percentage, he could be a nuisance come Sunday if he’s near the top. (risking 0.2 units to win 18).
Head-to-head matchup:
C. Smith +104 over W. Simpson (Risking 1 unit).
Chris Kirk 60-1
Kirk is one of those neat-and-tidy players whose game is ideally suited to shorter tests where landing areas are minimal, and while his T36 return from the Phoenix Open last week might not have been eye-catching, his closing salvo of 66 certainly was. He will have a spring in his step this week. The 31-year-old had chances to win earlier in the season at Sanderson Farms and the Safeway Open, and while he couldn’t get the job done at least it showed that he could handle slightly breezier conditions than normal and still hit plenty of greens. He plays Par 4s well too, and that’s a handy angle in this week (risking 0.2 units to win 12).
Head-to-head matchup:
C. Kirk +103 over C. Reavie (Risking 1 unit).
Henrik Norlander 200-1
You may recall Norlander participating in that epic playoff at the RSM Classic, and his appearance at such a heady stage of the tournament was due to his exceptional green-hitting ability. He followed that up with T20 at the Sony Open, and while he missed the cut at Farmers, his scores of 73-72 are hardly the end of the world. The Pro-Am format suits guys like laid back Norlander, and one only needs to look at his stats below to confirm that he is an underpriced gem here:
Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 9th
Strokes Gained: Total – 13th
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 24th
Jonas Blixt 125-1
Another West Coast specialist is Jonas Blixt, who connected top-10s finishes at the Farmers and Pebble Beach last year, and he might well achieve something similar given that he was T20 at Torrey Pines just last month. The Swedish star showed nicely at the Phoenix Open in patches, with that second round of -7 showcasing his excellent scoring power when in the mood. We expect him to go well around Monterey in particular. His stats might be awful, but don’t be fooled because Blixt can go top-20 at any time and looks to be rounding into the right state of mind and form coming into this week. Always be mindful of Blixt (risking 0.2 units to win 25).
Head-to-head matchup:
J. Blixt +123 over R. Castro (Risking 1 unit).
Zack Cimini
VCU vs. George Washington
Pick: George Washington
Blowout losses stay fresh in the mind of a team no matter how poor of a season they're having. Tonight George Washington will aim to rectify a thirty point loss on January 11th to VCU. For the Colonels the issue all season hasn't been their offense, it has been their defense. Tonight, expect a higher level of effort from a unit that has revenge on their mind to thwart conference leader VCU.
Will Rogers
Providence vs. Seton Hall
Pick: Seton Hall
The set-up: Providence is 14-8 (4-6 in Big East) and will travel to South Orange, NJ to take on the 14-10 Seton Hall Pirates, who are 4-7 in Big East games. The Friars won 65-61 at home over against Seton Hall back on Jan. 14.
Providence: The Friars opened the season 10-2 but have lost eight of 12 since (4-7 in league games). The team has lost twice in its last four games (1-3 span) to Villanova, including 66-57 at home in its most recent contest (last Wednesday). A week off could help and the Friars are hoping that freshman Alpha Diallo (4.5 & 2.5) is finally finding his game, with two 18-point efforts in his last three. The 6-8 Bullock (16.9 & 6.0)and the 6-7 Holt (12.4 & 5.8 ) have been the team's top-two frontcourt players so far, while PG Cartwright (10.7 & 6.8 APG) and 6-7 guard Lindsey (10.5 & 4.) have taken care of the perimeter.
Seton Hall: The Pirates have watched the 6-10 Delgado (15.0 & 13.1) dominate lately, as he's averaged 15.1 & 16.1 over the last seven games but Seton Hall owns just two wins in that span. However, led by his 26 points and 17 rebounds at Georgetown this past Saturday, the Pirates earned their first Big East road win of the year, edging the Hoyas 68-66 in OT. The 6-6 Rodriguez (15.7 & 5.5) joins Delgado up front, while Carrington (16.6) and Powell (10.1) give Seton Hall a solid backcourt duo.
The pick: Seton Hall finally got off the schneid on Big East road game and now it's a home game against Providence (just 2-6 SU on teh road), where the Pirates are 8-1 SU, outscoring opponents on average, 79.7-to-64.9 PPG. Lay the reasonable price.
David Banks
Chicago @ Golden State
Pick: Chicago +13.5
The Bulls get an opportunity to gain on Indiana, which is currently sixth in the Eastern Conference standings, when they travel to Golden State to face the NBA’s best. The Warriors are 43-8 entering the new week, but head coach Steve Kerr’s team is coming off a 109-106 loss to Sacramento. Whether or not Chicago has a real chance in defeating Golden State at the Oracle Arena is likely up to Jimmy Butler. The Bulls leading scorer (24.6 ppg) may miss Monday’s game against Sacramento with a heel injury. If he plays Wednesday, Chicago will be much better off.
Still, the Bulls will have to face the best lineup in the league. Kevin Durant continues to lead the Warriors scoring 25.8 points a game. Steph Curry adds 25.6 and Klay Thompson scores 21.4 per game for the NBA’s top scoring team. The Warriors can score on the offensive end and are big up front with C Zaza Pachulia and PF Draymond Green. Chicago has lost three of its last five games and will have to defend well to have a chance against Golden State.
The Bulls are the NBA’s top rebounding team and they are tied for sixth in points allowed per game (102). If Chicago can get a great defensive effort and get scoring from Butler, they may have a shot at pulling the upset. Chicago is a game below .500 (25-26) and in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. Wednesday’s game is the second of four that the Bulls will play on the West Coast.
Buster Sports
Stanford vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -13.5
Really bad timing for Stanford to come to Arizona as the Wildcats just received a beatdown in their biggest game of the year so far as Oregon beat them 85-58. Arizona did nothing right and they will come out tonight and put the hammer down against a club they beat at Stanford on January 1st, 91-52. Arizona is just too big for Stanford to handle and they are still in the hunt for first in the Pac-12 even with the bad loss to Oregon. So we believe the focus will be there after playing such a horrific game on Saturday. Stanford comes into Arizona off of a nice upset win against Utah but they are only 1-6 on the road this year. Very seldom will we lay this many points anytime, but our numbers have this at 16 1/2 and we are only laying 13 1/2 at the time of this writing. Backing our selection is the fact that Stanford are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings between the clubs.
Mike Rose
California at Arizona State
Play: Arizona State +4.5
I’m surprised to see the stance the betting public has taken with Cal in the visitor’s role this evening with the betting line opening at 2 and shooting up to 4.5 before you could blink. The Golden Bears currently reside in 4th place within the Pac-12 standings, and with it, has taken on much fanfare for this tilt with the Sun Devils who’ve managed just four wins through 11 conference tries. However, ASU has been a much better investment at home where its won 7 of 11 and enters having covered four of five and each of its L/2 as underdogs. Arizona State played Cal real tough in Berkeley up until the 5 minute mark of the second half. All most will see is an 81-65 win and cover for the Golden Bears, but it was a 61-60 game before Cal pulled away late. Now on its home floor, I expect ASU to compete all the way through and possibly hand the Golden Bears their third loss on the true road. Hurley’s kids just missed the cut of being tonight’s Rabid Dawg.
Executive Sports
Mississippi at Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -6.5
Vols have been rebounding extremely well. They have over 40 rebounds in each of the past 3 games and in 5 of the past 6. They are averaging 44 rebounds per game over the past 6 games. Now coming off their last game where they only shot 39% from the field, they return home to bounce back off their first loss in the past 5 games. They are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in games following them shooting less than 40% from the field in their previous game.