Free Picks for Wednesday, January 18th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Dave Cokin
Montreal -110
It's never a snap to fade the powerful Penguins, but I think I have to do that here. Pittsburgh is off one of the craziest wins I've seen in ages. The Pens rallied from a 3-0 deficit, then blew 5-3 and 7-5 leads before getting the overtime win against the Capitals on Monday night. That game was absolutely insane, and wheeling back on the road 48 hours later doesn't figure to be easy. On the flip side, Montreal should be pretty geared up for this game. They came out on the short end of an overtime thriller the last time they faced Pittsburgh. In that game, the Habs were up one goal before the Penguins tied it with less than one minute to play in regulation. In the overtime, Montreal got tagged for having too many men on the ice when they botched a change while trying to prevent a 2-0n-1 break and Pittsburgh skated away with the win on a power play goal. There's no such thing as a perfect storm in handicapping, but I think this one is pretty good. I'll play the Canadiens at close to even money on Wednesday night.
BEN BURNS
Penguins vs. Canadiens
Play: Canadiens -110
These teams have met twice this season. The home team won both games. Thats not surprising, given their home/road records. The Canadiens are 16-6 at home, including a perfect 5-0 when the O/U line was 5.5. The Pends, on the other hand, are 8-12 on the road. That includes a 6-9 mark when the O/U line was 5.5. In fact, they're now an ugly 21-32 (-19.2 vs. the moneyline!) the past 2+ seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. While I won with the Penguins last time out, this should be a good spot to go against them.
BEN BURNS
Penguins vs. Canadiens
Play: Canadiens -110
These teams have met twice this season. The home team won both games. Thats not surprising, given their home/road records. The Canadiens are 16-6 at home, including a perfect 5-0 when the O/U line was 5.5. The Pends, on the other hand, are 8-12 on the road. That includes a 6-9 mark when the O/U line was 5.5. In fact, they're now an ugly 21-32 (-19.2 vs. the moneyline!) the past 2+ seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. While I won with the Penguins last time out, this should be a good spot to go against them.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Coyotes vs. Jets
Play: Over 5½
The Coyotes struggle to score goals. There is no doubt about that. But Arizona may have found the perfect host to get their struggling offense back on track. Winnipeg comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak where they have allowed a total of 19 goals in the 4 games! Not surprisingly, none of these 4 games resulted in an under. The Jets have now allowed 4 goals or more in 7 of their last 10 games! The Coyotes have also had trouble keeping the puck out of their own net. Arizona has allowed at least 3 goals in 12 of its last 13 games! There is hope for the Coyotes do get some goal production going again here as they have averaged 3 goals per game in their last 4 games against Winnipeg. 3 of those 4 games have gone over the total and I expect another one here. The Jets are 16-10 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Look for the recent Winnipeg struggles in their own end to bring out the best in the Coyotes offense while the Jets continue to score well (47 goals in their last 15 games).
SCOTT SPREITZER
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Kansas State +4
The Wildcats have dropped their last two games, losing by one point at Texas Tech and at home to Baylor. The Wildcats led the Bears midway through the second half, but a rare poor shooting night led to the loss. I do believe the 'Cats are getting "just what the doctor ordered," tonight in Stillwater. K-State is one of the better shooting teams in the country, while the Cowboys have been horrible on the defensive end. OSU has allowed the opposition to make 46.6% of their FGA, including 36% from behind the arc. Those numbers rank 307th and 251st, respectively. The Cowboys have lost five straight games, giving up 83.6 ppg on 49% shooting and they can't stay out of foul trouble with their last five opponents averaging 30.4 FTA per game. Kansas State has five players averaging in double-digits in scoring and are 1-point per game away from a 6th member joining the club. The Wildcats have covered four straight on the road and we'll back them here.
MATT FARGO
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -11
Georgia Tech is off to a surprising 3-2 start in the ACC after losing a ton to graduation and being picked to finish second to last in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets lost their top four scorers from the team last year that went to the NIT but they have responded with some big wins over VCU and North Carolina. Most recently, Georgia Tech produced victories over NC State and Clemson but it is just 1-3 this season following consecutive wins and has not won consecutive road games thus far. Virginia Tech opened the season 12-1 and got its way into the Top 25 but has since faltered as the schedule has not been on its side. The Hokies defeated Duke by 14 points for their 12th win and that produced a letdown for their next game at NC State. They have also lost two of their last three games after that but those were against Florida St. and Notre Dame which are a combined 32-4 and the loss to the Irish was their first home loss of the season. This is a very efficient team that should bounce back as Virginia Tech is 22nd nationally in effective field goal percentage, 24th in free throw rate, 26th in three-point percentage, 28th in two-point field goals, 31st in raw offensive efficiency, 33rd in two-point field goal percentage defense and 38th in offensive turnover percentage. Going back, the Hokies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning straight up record.
JOSEPH D'AMICO
Loyola-Chicago vs. Northern Iowa
Play: Loyola-Chicago +3
The Ramblers took both meetings in this series last season when the Panthers were a force to be reckoned with. They have also covered the L3 matchups. They enter this contest covering their L4 overall (3-1 SU) while Northern Iowa lost 3 DD scorers, including their on-the-floor captain, they are certainly not the same squad, going 1-8 ATS their L9 and 1-7 SU their L8. L-Il hits a remarkable, 51.2% (4th nationally) as UNI is having trouble just putting points on the board (64.6 PPG). The ramblers are 7-3 ATS the L10 meetings in this series and 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. MVC foes.
BRANDON POWELL
Thunder vs. Warriors
Play: Under 228.5
When these two teams get together the under cashes in at a great rate, which we will continue to ride tonight. 7 of the last 8 games in Golden State have gone under, and 7 of the last 9 have gone under between these two. I am expecting Golden State to win by double digits and continue their stretch of winning, but also see this being somewhat low scoring.
JIM FEIST
Bucks vs. Rockets
Play: Bucks +7½
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS against the Western Conference and rested. Houston is home had to play last night at Miami. It's their third game in four nights and the Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. And the Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
JESSE SCHULE
Toronto vs. Philadelphia
Play: Over 210
Don't look now but the Philadelphia 76ers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Sixers have won six of their last eight overall, and they've scored an average of 104 points per game during that span. They will need all the points they can get if they want to upset the Raptors at home tonight, Toronto ranks third in the NBA in scoring averaging over 111 points per game. They've scored at least 110 points in six straight games, and they've scored more than 120 points in each of their last three games against the Sixers. The over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams, and I expect another high scoring affair here in Philly tonight.
CAJUN SPORTS
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +3
The Memphis Grizzlies are on the road in Washington to take on the Wizards Wednesday night. The Grizzlies are coming off a home loss to the Bulls on Sunday 108 to 104 which was their second loss in their last three outings. The Grizzlies have matched up well against this Wizards team in certain situations they are a perfect 3-0 ATS against the Wizards in the current price range. The reason for that success against the Wizards in the current price range is nothing new the Wizards are 39-54-2 ATS as a favorite in the current price range and 25-37-2 ATS when installed as a home favorite in this price range. We want to play ON non-conference road teams coming off a SU/ATS win as a home favorite in their last game because these teams are 135-94-6 ATS. We look for the Grizzlies bounce back here against the Wizards on Wednesday night.
SPORTS WAGERS
VA TECH -11 over Georgia Tech
Very seldom will you see us spotting this many points with a recognized 13-4 program because they are almost always overpriced but that is not the case here. You see, Georgia Tech is coming off two outstanding double digits wins against Clemson and N.C. State respectively with the latter coming on the road. The Yellow Jackets also have a recent win over #9 North Carolina by double digits. Aside from playing that aforementioned trio and beating them, the Jackets played Louisville and Duke in between. Georgia Tech has had a ton of exposure lately because they have played some marquee names and they have looked pretty damn good in doing so. This market is not anxious to be giving this intruder double digits when they have been winning by double digits and that’s the basis for this play. Sell high my friends, which is precisely what we are doing here.
Buy low. Va Tech has dropped three of four and lost its ranking in the process. Not only have the Hokies dropped three of four, they lost 104-78 to the same team (N.C. State) Georgia Tech just beat by 10 points. The result of their three losses in their last four games and getting smoked by Florida State and N.C. State in the process, is that the general consensus is that the Hokies are an overrated bunch. That said, basketball is all about matchups and this is not a good one for the Jackets. The Jackets are an incredibly offensively challenged bunch that is about to play one of the finer defenses in the country. Georgia’s offensive efficiency ranking is 207th, and their possessions per 40 minutes is even worse at 237th. What all this translates to is that the Jackets are going to have to hit a very high percentage of their shots to cover this number and that is extremely unlikely to happen. The Jackets lost to Duke, 110-57 and they lost to Louisville 65-50, which gives you an idea of the type of numbers they put up against top defenses. Va Tech enters this one in a foul mood and this is the perfect victim to take their frustrations out on.
WASHINGTON ST +9½ over Utah
The Cougars have about as much appeal as rush hour these days. Wazzou has dropped three straight, which included a 19-point loss to Oregon and a 30-point loss to Stanford. The Cougars have zero notable wins this season to go along with some disturbing losses. A 12-point loss to San Jose State and a 26-point loss to Creighton are among them. Frankly, it is near impossible to make a case for the Coogs and we’re not going to try to. They are a weak Pac-12 team that could easily finish last in the conference. However, this wager is not about backing the Cougars. It is all about fading the Utes, who are not only an average team to begin with but that is also in a difficult spot too.
Let’s begin with the good. The Utes are 12-5 and just beat #25 USC by 22 points. That’s all the good you’re going to get. Utah has played one of the weakest out-of-conference schedules in the country that ranked 334th. Among its victims in its 12 wins were NW Nazarene, Concordia OR, Coppin State, Utah Valley, Prairie View A&M, San Francisco and Montana State. That’s seven of Utah’s 12 wins right there and some of them were lopsided victories, thus skewing the Utes offensive and defensive numbers. In terms of scheduling, Utah is coming off games against #17 Arizona, #25 USC and #4 UCLA in three of its last four contests. The Utes intensity level figures to be much lower here on the road against a team they are expected to beat. The Utes went toe-to-toe with the Bruins on Saturday and eventually lost by just one point. Utah’s good showing against UCLA increased its market value, which means you are paying a higher price to back them here than if they would’ve been blown out. We’re not putting much weight on any team that has a good showing against any other Pac-12 team because the conference is a weak and grossly overvalued one. Utah is more than capable of losing to any Pac-12 team, especially when they travel and the Cougars are no exception. Huge value in this inflated price.
St. Joseph’s +6½ over UMASS
Last Wednesday most of the country faded the Minutemen when Dayton came calling and when it was over, they were all ripping up their tickets. One week later and the Minutemen go from a 6½-pooch to a -6½-point favorite and therein lies the overreaction. While Dayton is obviously a better team than the Hawks, there is also a big difference from being expected to lose to expecting to win. UMass finds itself in those contrasting roles here and we wouldn’t trust them for a second. The Minutemen have been favored a mere five times this season in 18 games and they have covered twice. They played a bunch of marshmallows in their out-of-conference slate and had some close call against some of them, which included a six-point home victory over North Carolina A&T and a seven-point victory, also at home, against Wagner.
St. Joe’s is coming off a four-point home loss to Richmond, which doesn’t do anything to booster its credentials but it’s actually better than it seems. You see, the Hawks lost by just four points after shooting a mere 34% from the floor and missing nine free throws too. Bad shooting days happen but this market usually sees results and nothing else. That the Hawks didn’t lose by 20 after such a poor shooting performance reveals how good their defense played and also how determined they were. The Hawks have also had to transition after they lost junior point guard Shavar Newkirk for the year on December 30. St. Joe’s has four games under their belt since that devastating blow but don’t count them out. Phil Martelli is in his 22nd year at St. Joe’s and knows exactly how to get the best out of every player. The Hawks went 28-8 last year and while they lost some serious talent, Martelli has restocked the lineup with an athletic four-man group that is getting better with each passing game. The Hawks are very likely going to shoot much better here than they did against the Spiders and should that come to pass and they play with the same intensity level, they’ll have a great chance to not only cover but to win outright. We’re calling the upset but will take the points.
Will Rogers
Memphis vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The set-up: The 25-18 Memphis Grizzlies have their work cut out for them when they visit Washington tonight, as the 21-19 Wizards have won their last 12 games at Verizon Center.
Memphis: The Grizzlies suffered a 108-104 home loss to the Chicago Bulls on Sunday night and have dropped two of three and six of their last 11 games, with all but one of those setbacks coming on the road. Veteran power forward Zach Randolph held his own in Chicago and recorded 15 points and 16 rebounds off the bench to mark his fourth double-double in the last five games. Randolph (13.8 & 5.2 on the season) has lobbied for more playing time alongside center Marc Gasol (19.4-6.1-4.2) and is thriving in extended minutes while posting 17 points and 11.8 rebounds in an average of 29 minutes in the last five contests. That inside duo joins PG Conley (19.0-3.7-5.2) as the team's lone double digit scorers.
Washington: Meanwhile, all five Washington starters score in double digits. The backcourt duo of Wall (22.9-4.5-10.1) and Beal (22.5) lead the way, while up front, forwards Porter (14.0 & 6.4) and Morris (13.4 & 6.3) surround center Gortat (11.4 & 11.6). The Wizards stumbled badly out of the gate at 2-8 but the team is 15-7 since Dec. 5 (12 straight home wins began on Dec. 8 ).
The pick: The Wizards are 11-1 ATS during their 12-game home winning streak, so why buck them here?
Larry Ness
Indiana vs. Sacramento
Pick: Sacramento
Sacramento had hoped that a two-week homestand of seven games would help solidify the team as a playoff contender in the Western Conference with six games completed, the Kings have managed just ONE victory! That lone win came 100-94 over the Pistons, who squandered an 18-point third quarter lead. It's safe to say, things haven't gone as planned this homestand for the Kings. Tonight, it's a game against the 21-19 Indiana Pacers, then the Kings head out on the road for an EIGHT-game road trip over 12 days!
The Pacers begin a three-game Western Conference trip with this contest and have struggled to close games this season. Away from Indiana, the Pacers are just plain have trouble winning, sporting a 5-14 SU record, also going 5-14 ATS (more on that, later). The Pacers come in having won six of their past seven and can move three games above .500 for the first time with a victory, but FIVE of those seven games were played at Indiana. SF Paul George (22.0-6.1-3.3), center Turner (15.6 -7.7) and PG Jeff Teague (15.6-4.1-8.0) are the pacesetters for an Indiana offense that has shot at least 50 percent in five of its past six games.
The poor homestand has been disappointing to both players and coaches, and the repeated miscues and breakdowns have been alarming. "We're not a good team right now -- plain and simple," small forward Matt Barnes told reporters. "We have what it takes but we're undisciplined. We're not consistent and we lose our focus too much." However, the Kings are still just one game out of the West's final playoff spot. Also, Indiana's woes on the road are real, as the team has failed to cover in ANY of its 14 SU losses on the road this season! Kings head out on the road off a win.