JIMMY BOYD
Texas Tech -4
I like the value here with the Red Raiders laying a short number at home against the Horned Frogs. Texas Tech has alternated wins and losses in Big 12 play, as they come in at 2-3 in the conference and fresh off a 75-84 loss at Oklahoma. All 3 losses have come on the road, as the Red Raiders are a different team at home, where they are a perfect 11-0 this season.
I believe we are getting a favorable number here due to the fact that TCU is fresh off a 84-77 win at home over Iowa State. I see this is as a tough spot for the Horned Frogs to match the intensity of the Red Raiders off that big win and with an even bigger home game on deck against Baylor this Saturday.
TCU is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games off a home win, while the Red Raiders are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite of 6.5 or less.
JACK JONES
Oklahoma State -3
The Oklahoma State Cowboys will be highly motivated for their first Big 12 victory of the season. They have started 0-5 this season with some tough road losses to Texas (by 3), Baylor (by 4) and Kansas (by 7). They have shown they can play with the league's best, but they just haven't been rewarded with a win yet.
I look for them to get that win tonight against a Kansas State team that hasn't been all that impressive in conference play, either. The Wildcats are 2-3 with their only two wins coming at home over Texas (by 3) as 8.5-point favoites and Oklahoma (by 11) as 11.5-point favorites. The Sooners were playing without their best player in that game.
Home-court advantage means more in this series than perhaps any other in the Big 12. The home team is 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings. Oklahoma State is 11-1 straight up in its last 12 home meetings with Kansas State. The home team is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
The Cowboys are 40-16-3 ATS in their last 59 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Wildcats are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.
3G-SPORTS
Toronto vs. Philadelphia
Play: Over 215
Philadelphia Joel Embiid is a player with a load of confidence in his scoring abilities. Embiid has been shooting the ball at a 46% clip for Philadelphia. The Sixers have been playing better with their deep ball game. Philadelphia at home play with more gusto at they will score more than expected. Toronto needs Jonas Valanciunas, more than the 10-12 pts he has been putting up, and his sub 1 block/game. Toronto has been carried by their scoring for the majority of the season. Toronto D has to pick it up. Jonas's basket defense is not good enough for this team either - let alone, here on the road. Easy buckets down low will be abundant. Both teams played last night so I think the OVER is the play in this one tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +160 over WINNIPEG
OT included. Michael Hutchison was a great goaltender when he first came up to the Jets and now his head is spinning. Connor Hellebucyk was also a great goaltender when he first came up and now his head is spinning too. Andrej Pavelec’s head isn’t spinning because the Jets are paying him four million a year to play minor league hockey.
Winnipeg has dropped four in a row and five of six. They have allowed 19 goals against in their last four losses. Coach Paul Maurice is blaming weak goaltending on his teams’ woes. Don’t blame Michael Hutchison and don’t blame Connor Hellebucyk. Blame the Jets’ idiot coach for not sticking with one guy for an extended period of time instead of alternating them whenever one had a bad game. Getting constantly yanked and/or benched ruins one’s confidence. Without confidence, you cannot succeed in pro sports. Now Maurice has two mentally damaged goaltenders on his hands. Instead of picking one or the other, Maurice summoned for Andrej Pavelec, a goaltender that he did the same thing to. Pavelec will now play in his first NHL game since last April. Pavelec’s numbers were horrible last year and he’ll now come in and try and save Winnipeg’s season under heavy media and fan scrutiny. The Jets return home from a three-game trip through Arizona, Los Angeles and San Jose to face the Coyotes in front of their “tired of waiting” fans. Paul Maurice has ruined this team and the players aren’t responding to him anyway. The Jets are wasting a ton of talent and while it would be damn foolish to think they can’t win here, we’ll gladly take our chances because Winnipeg is fragile and on the verge of a coaching change.
Arizona is fragile too but in a different way. The Coyotes don’t have the talent that the Jets have so they struggle to win games and that plays on their minds. However, they have a great coach, they’re on the right track and they’re playing better as of late without the results. Arizona has held five of its last seven opponents to 27, 23, 28, 24 and 24 shots on net. The Coyotes have picked up points in three of its last five games. Arizona’s talented defense and its work ethic make them very worthy of a bet in certain situations and this is one of them. The bet here is a fade against Winnipeg, who cannot be favored in this range. Damn straight the ‘Yotes can win here.
EDMONTON -1½ +180 over Florida
The Panthers played in Calgary last night and lost 5-2 but that was a flattering score to the Panthers, as they probably should have lost 7-0. Florida’s first two goals came on their first nine shots and both were by Vincent Trocheck in virtually the exact same spot. Calgary had two goals overturned in the third period that were both coaches’ challenges for offside. Both offsides were by a fraction of an inch (if that), which took the refs quite some time to determine in both instances.
Florida had 12 shots about midway through the third period last night before the Flames took a series of penalties that resulted in four minutes of power play time. The Panthers also pulled their goalie with 3 minutes remaining and a man advantage so it was a 6-on-4 situation. The 11 shots on net by the Panthers in the third period looks prettier on paper than it did on the ice. With that loss last night, Florida is now 5-18 against top-16 teams. The Panthers were running around (badly) in their own end last night and that’s tiring. Playing the second game of back-to-backs against the speedy Oilers is not a recipe for success. The Panthers are laboring miserably.
Edmonton has allowed 22, 25, 19, 18 and 20 shots on net in five of its last six games while dominating the time of possession, scoring chances and shots on net. Edmonton has won three in a row and five of seven but the puck is not going in for them like it should be. Edmonton has either run into some hot goaltending of its luck around the net has been poor. Incredibly, the Oil has scored three goals or less in 16 of their last 17 games but they are not going to be contained much longer. Edmonton creates a ton of high quality scoring chances. In that regard, they rank sixth in the league and somebody is going to pay. The Oilers rank top-6 in several other analytical categories too so their lack of goals scored recently is in line for a major correction. This visitor could provide that correction.
SPORTS WAGERS
CareerBuilder Challenge
From Hawaii, we say hello to the West Coast and Coachella Valley for the first celebrity Pro-Am of the calendar year. The CareerBuilder Challenge will once again be sponsored by the Clinton Foundation. This course is one of those tricky rotating course events with three different tracks hosting the first trio of rounds and it is an excellent test of mettle for a field slightly low on quality with the elite seeking their fortune elsewhere. Still, that’s good news for us because the chances of a longshot coming in increases.
The trio of courses in the rotation are the TPC Stadium Course, which will also host the final round and measures in at 7,113 yards for its Par 72; the Nicklaus Tournament Course (Par 72, 7,159 yards) and La Quinta CC, which measures 7,060 yards and has a stroke index of Par 72 also. The Stadium Course garners the most attention thanks to its tariff of difficulty, which back in the late 1980’s was considered one of the toughest tests on Tour. The Jack Nicklaus designed Tournament course is said to be ‘forgiving off the tee but demanding around the greens,’ with well-placed hazards in the final third causing the occasional headache. The extra room off the tee certainly contributed to the low scoring in 2016, however. La Quinta was the easiest of the three courses, certainly through round one anyway, with a stroke average of 69.596; bettering the 69.424 set by the Nicklaus and the 71.825 mark of the Stadium Course.
We’re going to place an emphasis on decent putting – as last year’s winner (Dufner) gained 1.48 strokes on the field with his flat stick, and Par 4 Scoring (Dufner played the regulation holes in -12). All in all, seven of the top-10 in 2016 gained at least 1.00 shots on the field with their putter, and 6/10 via Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, so a decent all-round contribution will be required.
The following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.
The head to head match-ups will be bet at .
Jamie Lovemark 30-1
We almost always look for odds higher than 30-1 but Lovermark is on the verge of a win and we don’t want to miss it if he pops this week. His effort at the Sony Open last week was tremendous, a T4 finish backed by an outstanding effort with the putter by gaining 1.861 shots on the field. A hot flat stick is never a bad thing, and perhaps explains why Lovemark has served up a pair of top-10 finishes in his last two starts. A proud Californian, he will be determined to get stuck into his hometown tournament here, and in finishing T6 in the first outing for the new rotation of courses in 2016, he gave us a fantastic insight into what to expect. Yet to break his duck on the PGA TOUR despite eight top-10 finishes, a tournament he enjoys in limited company could well give Lovemark the opportunity he desires (risking 0.4 units to win 12 units).
Head-to-head
J. Lovemark +117 over J. Rahm (risking 1 unit).
Cameron Smith 80-1
We’ve discussed having in-form players who are decent putters on board this week and Cameron Smith fits the bill excellently. A string of form reading 11-10-42-27 is pleasing on the eye and in ranking inside the world’s top 40 for Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and Strokes Gained Putting, Smith’s game appears ideally suited for this Californian test. The Aussie boasts some lovely stats for Proximity to the Hole and Birdie-Making too, so let’s sign him up without hesitation at these odds. He has other key stats too that include - Total Birdies - ranked 11th, Par 4 Scoring Average – ranked 20th and Strokes Gained Putting ranked – 40th (risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).
Head-to-head
C. Smith -108 over S. Kjeldsen (risking 1.08 units to win 1).
Michael Thompson 150-1
A hot putter that is heating up quite nicely at the moment belongs to Michael Thompson, who holds some excellent value this week. He can be inconsistent, which is why he’s priced so high but the risk is worth the reward. A T13 at the RSM Classic and T20 at the Sony Open in his last two starts suggest things are going in the right direction. That performance in Hawaii – where he carded scores of 65 and a closing 63 – was outstanding, and he claimed an incredible 2.00 shots on the field with his putter; which should help on these probable dull and wet greens. His career strike rate is roughly 20% for finishing in the top-25 (34 in 155), and on tracks like this that should suit him, let’s hope he can be in the mix on Sunday and give us a chance to cash something. Some of Thompson’s key stats are Strokes Gained Putting – ranked 14th, approaches from > 200 yds – ranked 25th and Scoring Average, ranked – 50th (risking 0.2 units to win 30 units).
Note: There are no heads up matches available for Thompson
Martin Laird 50-1
Scotsman Laird is the archetypal sleeper, as he’s consistently finishing higher than his odds would suggest, including T8 at the Safeway Open, T27 at Shriners, and T13 at Mayakoba in his last trio of outings. A T15 here in 2015 offers some further encouragement, and Laird’s natural eye – he pounds fairways and greens and can, on his day, putt the lights out – should suit the new set-up too. If the wind picks up, Laird’s great efficiency off the tee could well become a secret weapon to savor. Laird is not without some key stats either, as his Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green is ranked 7th, his Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is ranked 15th and his Putting Average is ranked 34th. Dude is absolutely worth a bet here (risking 0.2 units to win 10).
Head-to-head
M. Laird -119 over C. Hoffman (risking 1.19 units to win 1).
Jon Huh 66-1
Although Huh has not taken off like it looked like he would after starting his career with consecutive seasons finishing in the top-45 of the FedExCup standings, he has remained a consistent force on the PGA TOUR and made it to the weekend 53 times over 87 starts (61%) between 2014 and 2016. His steady play has allowed him to kick off the New Year in fantastic fashion, going 6-for-6 in cuts made with a top-10 at the Shriners Open. He’s been under par by double-digits at each of his last four starts and is currently riding a streak of eight consecutive rounds in the 60s due to his ability to scramble (72.22%, 12th on Tour) and gain strokes with his approach to the green (0.761, 26th on Tour). He should stay out of trouble this week and improve on his start last year when he came away from this event in 24th. Great price on a great golfer (risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head-to-head
J. Huh -117 over H. Varner III (risking 1.17 units to win 1).
Zack Cimini
Toronto vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
Just a few weeks back the 76ers fought hard against the Raptors, nearly coming back to cover a nine point spread. A lot has changed since that matchup, with the Raptors showing a bit of fatigue and the 76ers gaining health and better overall play. We'll take the 76ers here to continue to show an upward trend.
LV Traders
Illinois St at Bradley
Pick: Bradley
Illinois State is coming off an emotional win over Wichita St where it used every ounce of it's energy. The Redbirds expect to win this one and will be challenged to get properly prepared for the improving Braves. Brian Wardle is quietly improving the Bradley program and they'll be ready to go in this spot. These two campuses are separated by less than 40 miles on I-74 and the two schools have an naturally intense rivalry. It's Bradley's game of the year, while ISU is hungover and dreaming about a Missouri Valley title.
The Real Animal
Atlanta Hawks -2
I normally skip the NBA on a night full of college but I’ll make an exception tonight with Atlanta at Detroit. It certainly appears these two teams are heading in opposite directions. The Hawks have won nine of 10 with their only loss by two points at home to Boston. They have won five straight outright on the road and recently went 4-0 SU and ATS sweeping a four-game trip. Detroit is returning from a five-game west coast trip and it’s never easy for any team following that in their first home game. Plus the Pistons are really struggling. After a solid start to the campaign they are 5-11 since December 16th and are 2-6 straight-up at home since 12/11. Plus the Hawks are 3-1 straight-up and ATS in Motown the last three seasons. Dwight Howard is back to playing fairly well and should offer a challenge to Andre Drummond. The Hawks appear to have the advantage at every other starting position on the floor. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus the NBA Central Division; 8-2 ATS on the road recently; and 6-1 ATS following a spread loss. The Pistons are 1-7 ATS following a straight-up or spread victory recently and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 versus teams out of the Eastern Conference.