Free Picks for Wednesday, Wednesday, January 25th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
FLYERS AT RANGERS
PLAY: FLYERS +145
It hasn’t been very good lately for the Philadelphia Flyers. The goaltending has been ultra-shaky and the view from here is that when the skaters don’t have faith in their netminders, wining gets very tough. The good news for the Flyers is that they’re off a needed win as they rallied to knock off the Islanders in overtime in their most recent game on Sunday.
The Rangers come into this game on a three-game winning streak, but that’s a pretty fortunate 3-0. New York should have lost on Monday to the Kings in a game in which they were soundly outplayed, and the Sunday win over the Red Wings was hardly dominating.
I think the Rangers are vulnerable right now. They look like a team that can really use the upcoming time off for the NHL All-Star break. New York is missing some valuable contributors currently sidelined by injury. That makes them a high risk play as big chalk, which is the situation this evening.
Philly is hardly go with material right now. But I see the price being right for an underdog stab in this game, so I’m tabbing the Flyers as my free play for Wednesday night.
Scott Spreitzer
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Florida State -8½
We have been on the Seminoles a few times this season and have cashed the tickets. We're backing them here against a struggling Ga Tech squad. FSU is a true Final Four contender this March, playing great basketball at both ends of the floor. Dwayne Bacon leads the team in scoring, Xavier Rathan-Mayes is one of the best dishers in the country, and Jonathan Isaac is a beast on the boards. The Jackets aren't bad on the defensive end, but they can't keep-up on the offensive end where they're 311th in the nation, scoring less than 67 ppg on just 43% shooting. They're also weak on the glass. The 'Noles are on a 5-0 ATS run at Ga Tech and the road team has covered 10 of the last 12 in the series.
Stephen Nover
Philadelphia at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -11
The Bucks are back on track with a big buy sign here. The 76ers are in a major letdown mode, likely minus two key players and caught in a terrible spot. The result should be a Milwaukee blowout. Philadelphia upset the Clippers, 121-110, at home on Tuesday night. The 76ers achieved this minus their two best big men, injured Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor. It was just the third time in 13 games the 76ers won without Embiid, who easily is their best player and probable rookie of the year. Embiid has been ruled out here due to knee soreness. Okafor also has knee soreness. He's questionable. Nerlens Noel stepped up big-time for the 76ers in the victory against the Clippers. He played a season-high 29:16, though, and his effectiveness could be greatly reduced playing without rest. This marks the 76ers' fourth game in six days and second in two nights. Philadelphia is 3-8 ATS the last 11 times when playing without rest. The 76ers have played four times this season without rest following a home victory. They lost all four times with the average losing margin being 19 1/2 points. It's a monster letdown spot for Philadelphia. Not only did the 76ers just beat the Clippers at home, but their next game is home against the Rockets on Friday. That marquee matchup is sure to draw a nice crowd. The 76ers are greatly improved, but they are very young. It's going to be difficult for them to be fully focused and motivated for this game. The flip side of this handicap is backing the Bucks. Milwaukee also has a lot of youth. The Bucks have been up and down, but are talented, can score in the paint and have a stronger bench than the 76ers. They also have a winning spread record at home. The Bucks returned to Milwaukee from a disappointing 0-3 road trip to smack the Rockets, 127-114, on Monday. That restored needed confidence and should put the Bucks back in the right direction. Giannis Antetokounmpo has reached superstar status this year and a finally healthy Jabari Parker is playing well, too, exceeding 20 points in seven of his last 10 games. Milwaukee has a strong bench headed by center Greg Monroe. Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova give the Bucks an underrated point guard tandem and savvy veteran Jason Terry can still play. The Bucks' bench superiority should eliminate any Philadelphia backdoor cover possibilities if the game gets out of hand early, which it very well could. The Bucks have owned the 76ers, too, winning nine of the past 10 in the series, covering seven of the 10.
Mike Lundin
Raptors vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -6
Tuesday's free pick from Mike Lundin was a late loser after a meaningless last second goal from the Flames pushed Calgary/Montreal over 5.5 goals. Wednesday night Mike turns to the NBA, looking to break out of a huge slump with the free picks.
The reeling Toronto Raptors suffered a fourth consecutive setback when they fell 108-106 to the Spurs last night. They left it all out on the court and battled hard even without injured All Star guard DeMar DeRozan, but that sets up a tough spot tonight. Note that this is Toronto's third game in four nights, so there will definitely be some tired Raptors' legs out there. The Memphis Grizzlies have not played since a 119-95 home loss to Houston on Saturday, so they'll be well rested AND looking to bounce back from a big loss.
The Raptors won the last meeting 120-105 home in Toronto back in November, but they're 3-8-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings at FedExForum. Lay the points on the home favorite.
Mike Anthony
Kings vs. Cavaliers
Play: Over 214
Cleveland will force Sacramento to score the ball - with an avg of just 102/ game over the season. Sacramento will struggle finding their offensive groove under pressure of the active hands of Cleveland. Since mid January. Cleveland has been especially great with their scoring - which has been really clicking. Sacramento wont get a lot of help from their frontcourt to stop the big three from the Cavs. Each one of Cleveland's big three are very capable of exploding for 35 - 40 pts any moment. Sacramento is on a huge road trip - this is the last place they want to be, winning only around 36% of their road games on the season. I expect a Combined score of around 216-222 points.
Larry Ness
Sacramento vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -11
The Cavs still own the East's best record at 30-13 and remain huge favorites to return to the NBA Finals, despite losing FIVE of their last seven games. However, LBJ has recently put the entire Cleveland Cavaliers' organization on notice. "We're not better than last year, from a personnel standpoint ... we're a top-heavy team," James told reporters following Monday's loss at the New Orleans Pelicans. "I just hope that we're not satisfied as an organization. How hard it was to do that (expletive). I just hope we're not satisfied."
The Kings may be just 17-27 but they're still lingering on the cusp of playoff contention in the West (two games out of the final spot). Sacramento received 52 points from the bench in the win over Detroit, with PG Ty Lawson (9.0-4.3 APG) being of the bunch by matching his season high of 19 points while also contributing six assists. Second-year center Willie Cauley-Stein (4.4-2.2) scored a season-high 12 points in the win against the Pistons and is starting to show improved ball-handling and scoring abilities.Sacramento typically counts on star center DeMarcus Cousins (28.0-10.2) and he recorded 22 points and 14 rebounds in the win, for his fifth consecutive double-double and eighth in nine games.
LBJ is right to raise concern. Cleveland lost in overtime at home to the San Antonio Spurs, who played without two starters, including Gasol. Then the Cavaliers fell behind to the Pelicans on the road without Anthony Davis, as Cleveland trailed by 22 before Irving (49 points!) shot the team back in the game in the third quarter. However, the Cavaliers still lost. Both LBJ and Irving have played more than 40 minutes in each of the last two losses, with LBJ playing 44 of 48 minutes against the Pelicans. He leads the league in minutes played at more than 37 per game and it's the most minutes he has played since returning to Cleveland. Head coach Tyronn Lue acknowledged he played James and Irving too many minutes against the Pelicans, and as a result had to cancel practice Tuesday and Wednesday's morning shoot-around.
Expect the Cavs to bounce back here against the Kings, who limp in having won just TWICE in their last 10, with BOTH wins coming over the Pistons (home & away). This marks the team's fourth game (in six nights) of an eight-game road trip and the Cavaliers won the past four meetings, including that 120-108 road victory back on Jan 13. Regarding LBJ's comments, head coach Lue responded, "I know what I'm doing, and we're going to be fine. know what I'm doing. I'm not going to change or not have confidence in what I can do." Lay the points with the Cavs.
Jim Feist
Lakers at Blazers
Pick: Over
The Lakers have been on the road playing no defense, giving up 122 the last game at Dallas. Portland loves to run and the Over is 30-11 in the Blazers last 41 games following a ATS win. And the Over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings in Portland.
Wunderdog
Atlanta @ Chicago
Pick: Atlanta -1.5
The Chicago Bulls have had a tough time this season as losing the presence of Joakim Noah in the middle of their defense has left a void. Chicago is 23-23 coming into this game at home vs. Atlanta. The Hawks' season can be defined by a wicked bad stretch that saw this team go 1-10 over 11 games. If you look at them outside of those 11 games, this is an elite Eastern Conference team at 25-8. That serves up some hidden line value here. The Bulls have been just 9-12 ATS off a win this season. The Hawks have it going on the road where they are 9-2 SU in their last 11, and 8-3 ATS.
SPORTS WAGERS
IUPUI +8 over IPFW
This rivalry game is between a battle of basketball teams with tongue-twister monikers. The feud between Indiana-Purdue Indianapolis (IUPUI) and Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne (IPFW) bears more than just bragging rights between intra-university, cross-state enemies. Both outfits come in at 3-4 in Summit League play and just three games behind conference leader North Dakota State. The Mastodons of IPFW come in at 14-7 while boasting a 10-1 home record, which is far more appetizing to look at compared to the 9-12 mark showcased by the Jaguars of Indiana-Purdue Indianapolis, who sit at 3-10 on the road.
The favorite here offers up a lot of eye candy. They boast the 9th best offense in America in terms of scoring, complemented by their 10th ranked field goal percentage. Add in the stellar numbers that IPFW have put up from beyond the three-point line (3rd nationally) and they appear to be a strong bet against this perceived weaker opponent. However, there are many reasons to lean the other way and take the points. First, the Jaguars have shown they can compete in this Sycamore State grudge, as they have won three of the previous four against the Mastodons, two of which came on the road. In all three victories, the Jags were taking back points and would even win by five as a nine-point dog in one of them. Furthermore, when comparing the two teams’ out-of-conference schedules, it is evident that the Jaguars of Indianapolis scheduled up while the Mastodons set up their docket to trample their foes. Fort Wayne’s non-conference SOS ranks 254th while IUPUI’s itinerary sits at 54th. The marvelous numbers that Fort Wayne boasts were calibrated against weaker competitors and are therefore completely skewed. It can also be inferred that the Jaguars and Mastodons contrasting records reflect the variance in quality of competition they have faced so far this season. The dog here has played some tough teams by Summit League standards that include Michigan, Northwestern, and Marquette and they didn’t look out of place in any of them. IUPUI also went into North Dakota State recently and lost by just four points to the conference leader.
The Mastodons have “Giant Killer” characteristics should they win this conference and earn an automatic bid into the Big Dance in March. That giant killer characteristic is the ability to sink three’s and put a giant in a hole that they sometimes cannot climb out of. Such was the case when Fort Wayne took down then #3 Indiana back in late November. However, shooting triples is the most appealing characteristic of the Mastodons, thus, they are always a cold night away from taking a bath. Even if the chalk isn’t cold from beyond the arc, the underdog can trade punches and they also have the ability to go on a run of their own. Inflated points here once again prompts us to step in.
WOFFORD -2 over NC-Greensboro
Recently, UNC-Greensboro emerged on the radar of bracketologists everywhere when they nosed to the front of a very tight Southern Conference race. Currently, the Spartans sit at 16-5 overall with a 7-1 record in conference play. Greensboro is also hot with six victories in a row. With Wofford coming in at 8-12 on the season and 3-4 overall in Southern Conference play, many will ask why are the Terriers spotting points? The gambit seems too good be true and we would suggest that anyone with such an opinion is correct.
While Greensboro sports a very attractive record compared to that of Wofford, the Spartans have been far less economical against the spread with a 6-6 record. By contrast, the Terriers are 13-4 ATS. Those results reflect some critical details that best illustrate the true fabric of both outfits. Greensboro has been the benefactors of good fortune, as they are the 4th luckiest team in the country according to Ken Pom. This quotient was yielded against the 267th ranked schedule in terms of strength. Conversely, Wofford is a snake-bitten dog. The Terriers have had some of the worst luck in all the land, as their luck quotient sits at 346th while playing the 59th ranked schedule in the country. We covered the luck theory a couple of days ago but in case you missed it, here it is again:
The theory is that games decided by four points or less are either lucky victories or unlucky losses because of missed free throws, bounces off the rim and referee calls. In other words, these types of games are a 50/50 shot so a team that wins a high majority of them is lucky while a team that loses a high majority is unlucky. It all evens out over time.
As a result, Wofford has found themselves in many games where they could have won but failed to get a few breaks. The Terriers 27th ranked non-conference SOS gives them even more credibility. Contrarily, the Spartans have won games they should have lost and the oddsmakers know it. However, records influence bettors and bettors influence lines. What this market will see is a 8-12 team spotting small points to a 16-5 team and it will entice them to take the points or the money. Being able to recognize these trouble spots is a key criteria to what we’re preaching and this one fits into that category. Play the same side the books will need here not because we're predicting a win but because it's the smart play.
SPORTS WAGERS
Farmers Insurance Open
The PGA TOUR stays in California for this, the Farmers Insurance Open, which was known as the San Diego Open until sponsorship deals took hold. Played at Torrey Pines, the event takes advantage of both the North and South courses at the famous venue, with both sharing duties on Thursday and Friday before the more difficult South track plays host to the weekend’s final 36 holes. An elite field will make the first tee with two of the finest players on the planet in Dustin Johnson and Jason Day in the hunt for their first silverware of 2017. Joining them will be Tiger Woods, who simply loves this Torrey Pines layout and is making his first full PGA TOUR appearance in more than 18 months, as well as a litany of US Ryder Cup heroes, including Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler, Jimmy Walker and JB Holmes.
Perhaps the standout entrant is Brandt Snedeker, the reigning and now two-time Farmers Insurance Open champion. He followed up his triumph in 2012 with a victory 12 months ago in a storm-ravaged finale. Snedeker was the only player to break par for his final 18 holes as a number of live contenders fell by the wayside. The players will be hoping for much-improved conditions this time around, and judging by the early forecast their wishes look, by and large, to be granted.
The South course at Torrey Pines is the longest currently in rotation on the PGA TOUR at a whopping 7,698 yards, and with thick rough and small, lively greens it offers an exceptional test for all players. It is no coincidence that the last three victors have all carded winning scores of single digits under par. It will perhaps come as no surprise to learn that Tiger Woods, available at odds of just 33/1 this week, is the most decorated San Diego/Farmers Insurance Open champion with seven victories from 1999 to 2013, and next in line to the throne – and on his home course no less – is Tiger’s old nemesis Phil Mickelson, who has triumphed here three times with the last coming back in 2001. Since 1999, Woods, Mickelson, and Brandt Snedeker have won 11 of the 18 events. That said, Woods is the biggest underlay on the board at 33-1. Dude should be at least 100-1
Further investigation of the past 12 victors here reveal that accuracy off the tee is a lot less important than distance but hitting greens is of optimum importance (winners had a combined 77.78% of greens hit). One key could be taking advantage of the scoring opportunities on Par 5’s. Lastly, players comfortable in typically blustery Californian conditions should have an edge on the house. and while cream often rises to the top at Torrey Pines, long-priced Vegas hopefuls such as Stallings and Ben Crane have prospered here in the recent past, thus, there’s hope for a “sleeper” repeat this week. That said, let’s take a look at some excellent candidates priced at 45-1 or greater odds this week.
The following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.
The head to head match-ups will be bet at .
JB Holmes +45-1
Long hitter? Check. In form? Check. Course history? Check. JB Holmes ticks off three of the most important boxes this week, and having enjoyed a key role in Team USA’s Ryder Cup team we can expect the 34-year-old to play with a certain swagger in 2017. It certainly enhanced his performance at the Hero World Challenge, where he fired in a hugely impressive opening round of 64. His return of 6-2-23 at Torrey Pines identifies a course that suits his eye and that’s no huge surprise given that nobody drove the ball further in 2016. A threat to be sure (risking 0.2 units to win 9 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
JB Holmes +101 over B. Steele (Risking 1 unit).
Kevin Chappell +66-1
Torrey Pines has not, historically, been a happy hunting ground for Kevin Chappell, which is a bit of a surprise given he is Californian born and bred, but there have been few players as improved as the 30-year-old in the past six months or so. Since finishing second at THE PLAYERS Championship in May ’16, Chappell recorded a further trio of top-three finishes, culminating in a playoff loss at the TOUR Championship in September. The reason we like Chappell this week is because he seems to love windy conditions, as a run of 2-4-9 at the RSM Classic, RBC Heritage, and Texas Open highlights respectively will attest to. He ranked inside the world’s top-30 in 2016 for Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Total Driving; all weapons that should serve him well this week (risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
K. Chappell +105 over H. English (Risking 1 unit).
Tony Finau +60-1
Some young players burst onto the scene with an eye-catching performance or two, while others take their time to mature into a world-class talent. We put Finau in the latter category, although his maiden Tour win in 2016 appears to have sparked something. Seven top-25 returns immediately after confirmed his importance to the tour and in 2017 thus far he has gone 9-20, with five of his last seven rounds being in the 60s. Few can match Finau’s length off the tee (10th for Driving Distance) or Par 5 Scoring ability (40th), so he is very much a live contender in San Diego and at these odds, we’re happy to bite (risking 0.2 units to win 12 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
T. Finau +103 over L. Oosthuizen (Risking 1 unit).
Robert Garrigus 150-1
Anyone seeking to risk a real small wager for a large payout this week need not look further than this longshot. There are always a couple of longshots in the hunt and it’s a real challenge and somewhat of a crapshoot to pick one out but Garrigus fits the bill. He’s dangerous and he’s good.
Garrigus has made five cuts from seven starts here but each of his last four visits have been successful with a return of 49-64-23-6 and there’s form in the bag too with a T17 at last week’s CareerBuilder Challenge. Indeed, with an opening 54 holes of 68, 69 and 66, he could have breached the top-10 but for a final round of 73. There’s no shame in carding +1 on the Sunday at the tough Stadium Course at TPC West however, and having hit 74% of greens and played the Par 5s in -5, Garrigus is well primed for another decent Californian jaunt. He comes into this event with some key stats that include 12th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, ranked 20th on tour in Birdie Average and 23rd in Par Breakers. Dude is worth a bet (risking 0.2 units to win 30 units).
72-hole Matchup
JB Holmes +100 over Tiger Woods
Pinnacle has Gary Woodland listed a a -147 favorite over Tiger Woods and while we would love to play that, we’re not in the business of spotting -147 because anything can happen including a player withdrawing because of an injury. It’s just not worth the gamble. However, BET365 has Holmes +100 v Woods available and it’s a bet we simply have to make. Woods has been idle for 18 months while Holmes is in great form (see above wager) but the market’s infatuation with Woods provides us with this outstanding value opportunity (Risking 1.5 units)
Will Rogers
Edmonton vs. Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim
The set-up: The 26-15-8 Edmonton Oilers are riding a six-game point streak (5-0-1) and will look to make up ground on the 27-14-9 Anaheim Ducks in the Pacific Division. The Oilers (60 points) play in Anaheim (63 points) tonight and then in San Jose (64 points) on Thursday
Edmonton: The surging Oilers continue their three-game road trip tonight, off a 7-3 win in Calgary this past Saturday. Edmonton is now 13-7-5 away from home, after sweeping the season series against its provincial rival for the first time. "To pinpoint certain moments, I look at our record on the road as perhaps one of our biggest achievements," Edmonton head coach Todd McLellan said. Edmonton center Connor McDavid, The Oilers have a chance to reach the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time in 11 years and exceed 40 wins for just the third time since the days of Hall of Famers Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier and Grant Fuhr. McDavid leads the league with 40 assists and 56 points one season after he missed three months of his rookie year because of a broken clavicle.
Anaheim: The Ducks present quite a challenge for the Oilers, as they come into this contest with a 9-2-1 January record, with both regulation losses coming against Western Conference-best Minnesota. Going back to a 5-1 road loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Dec. 20, Anaheim has secured points in all but two of its ensuing 16 games. Two of those points came Monday night in a 3-2 win over the Winnipeg Jets, Randy Carlyle's 300th victory as coach. "It wasn't the prettiest game we've played all year," Anaheim center Ryan Getzlaf told NHL.com. "But we're finding ways to get points and wins, especially after a tough loss."
The pick: Both teams are playing well, as are both goalies, Edmonton's Talbot and Anaheim's Gibson. However, the Ducks had a five-game winning streak in the series snapped in a 3-2 overtime loss at Edmonton back on Dec. 3. It's Anaheim's 'turn' tonight and note that Gibson is 4-0-1 with a 1.19 goals-against average against Edmonton.
Jesse Schule
76ers at Bucks
Pick: 76ers
The Milwaukee Bucks have been great at times this season, but very inconsistent. They are coming off a huge 127-114 home win over Houston, and I think that might set them up for a let down against the surging 76ers tonight. The Sixers have won nine of their last 12 overall, and that includes a 113-109 win at Milwaukee last week. The Bucks may want to avenge that loss, but they are asked to cover a rather inflated number here in the rematch. The Sixers are coming off a 121-110 home win over the Clippers, and Nerlens Noel scored 19 points and pulled in eight rebounds in place of Joel Embiid. Milwaukee has failed to cover in five of it's last six overall, and is 1-10 ATS in it's last 11 versus the Atlantic Division.
Art Aronson
Canucks at Avalanche
Pick: Over
Vancouver has gone just 2-5 in its last seven after a 4-2 loss at Chicago, while the Avs enter off consecutive defeats to San Jose, most recently a 5-2 home loss. Colorado has now dropped six straight. Canucks’ goaltender Ryan Miller is just 14-14 with a 2.50 GAA on the year and only 2-9 with a ballooned 3.27 GAA on the road. Note that he’s a poor 4-8 with a 2.88 GAA lifetime against the Avs. The home side will counter with the inconsistent Calvin Pickard, who is just 7-13 with a 3.01 GAA on the year, including a sub-par 2-7, 3.35 GAA here at home. These are two bottom feeders desperate for points.
Matt Fargo
Cal Riverside at Hawaii
Pick: Hawaii
The home floor has not been great for Hawaii this season as it is just 8-6 but three of those losses came against North Carolina, Illinois St. and Utah which are a combined 48-12. The most recent loss came on Saturday against UC-Davis which is currently in second place in the Big West Conference. The Warriors are 2-3 in the conference with the other two wins coming at home and both games on the road resulting in losses. The last loss against the Aggies was the first where the Warriors scored more than 70 points and they are now a solid 5-1 in such games. The Warriors now look to avenge last year's 77-71 home loss to UC Riverside, just one of three Big West regular-season losses Hawaii suffered during its 2016 title run. UC Riverside is riding a three-game winning streak and this is the first time all season that the Highlanders have won consecutive games as prior to this run, they had won only twice, one of those against a non-Division I team. They are just 1-9 on the road and going back to last season they have lost 12 of their last 13 games away from home. The Warriors are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss while the Highlanders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of fewer than seven points.