Free Picks for Wednesday, January 4th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
IOWA STATE VS.BAYLOR
PLAY: IOWA STATE +8.5
Baylor is looking like a serious contender to be playing basketball on the final weekend of the season. The Bears have been a dominant entry, and really don’t appear to have any true liabilities.
But Iowa State is far from being a pushover, and I expect the Cyclones to be about as focused as it gets tonight. This is a team with five senior starters and I’m quite sure the four straight losses absorbed at the hands of the Bears the last two years is more than a minor irritation for every member of the team.
I think this game is going to be a real battle. Solving that Baylor defense won’t be an easy task for the Cyclones. But don’t sleep on this underdog, as they’ve got some pretty impressive numbers of their own.
Baylor is clearly the rightful favorite in this game. But I see the number as being generous enough to make a case for the dog, as I just don’t see the Cyclones getting blown out in a game they want badly. I’ll opt to take the points with Iowa State tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Creighton vs. St. John's
Play: Creighton -5½
The Blue Jays had their chances to knock-off top-ranked Villanova at home last time out. Creighton lost by 10, but the game was tied with less than five minutes to go. I expect the Jays to stay focused as they look to land right back in the win column. They won't take St. John's for granted, only needing to look at the Red Storm's upset of Butler last week. And thanks to the Johnnies' three game winning streak, we're getting value with the boys from Omaha. CU is extremely deep, can over-match SJU's guards, while owning a strong inside game we don't believe the host can match. The Jays enter on a 19-9-1 ATS conference run and they're on a 5-0 ATS run as road chalk. CU swept last season's meetings and we'll back them here.
Jesse Schule
Quinnipiac vs. Canisius
Play: Quinnipiac +9
The Canisius Golden Griffins have won six straight, and I cashed in when they beat Sienna at home on Monday. They appear to be overvalued here in this game though, asked to cover a big number against a competitive conference rival. Two of their last three wins came in overtime, and they just barely held on to beat Sienna by three points. Quinnipiac is coming off a win on the road at Niagara, and the Bobcats have won outright in two of their last three visits to Canisius. The road team has actually won five of the last six in this series, and Quinnipiac is 8-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog in the 7-12 point range. There doesn't appear to be a lot of separation between the two teams, as they are both allowing opponents to average just over 80 points per game. Quinnipiac has scored an average of 71 points per game on the road, just four points less than Canisius is averaging at home. The visitors should have a huge edge on the boards, and I expect a close game here in Buffalo.
Sean Murphy
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Over 224
Damian Lillard is unlikely to suit up for the Blazers on Wednesday night, and as a result we're dealing with a reasonably low total (relatively speaking) in this one.
The last time these two teams hooked up in mid-December they combined to score 225 points as the Warriors rolled to a 45-point rout. Their first meeting this season, on the first night of November, totaled 231 points. This has been an 'over' series all the way in recent years.
The Blazers have been struggling offensively without Lillard in the lineup but I do expect them to break loose thanks to the Warriors pace alone. Golden State has actually been quite effective defensively this season, but still gives up over 104 points per game at home.
Offensively, the Warriors continue to light it up, particularly here at Oracle Arena, where they average over 121 ppg. They'll face little resistance against a Blazers squad that gives up over 113 ppg on the road.
Larry Ness
Oklahoma City vs. Charlotte
Pick: Charlotte
The Thunder are battling the 22-14 Jazz in the Northwest Division while the Hornets and the 19-16 Hornets lead the 18-16 Atlanta Hawks in the Southeast by just a half-game. Both teams feature outstanding lead guards in Westbrook for OKC and Kemba Walker for Charlotte. With Durant off to Oakland, very few expected anything less than “the Russell Westbrook Show” this year in OKC and he’s delivered. Westbrook scored 30 points, the 30th time he's reached that mark this season, in Monday’s 98-94 loss at Milwaukee but struggled from the floor, making 9 of 28 (note: he was 0-for-8 in the third quarter when the Bucks took their first lead!). However, he checks in averaging a triple-double on the season at 30.9-10.4-10.5
Walker doesn’t get as much ‘pub’ as Westbrook but the Hornets couldn’t do without him. He’s made a strong case to be an Eastern Conference All Star this season, averaging 23.0-4.2-5.4. Charlotte’s strength is its depth (something OKC does not have), as even though center Cody Zeller (10.7-6.2) is in the league's concussion protocol (listed day-to-day) and sixth-man Marco Belinelli (11.0) is out with a sprained ankle, the Hornets have more than just a few bodies to ‘throw at’ Westbrook and score points on the offensive end. Batum (14.9-7.6-5.9) is one of the league’s most versatile players plus even without Zeller and Belinelli, the Hornets have seven others who average between 5.1 and 10.2 PPG.
OKC got good news with the return of Oladipo (16.1 PPG) these last two games, after he had missed nine games with a wrist injury. He’s an important piece, as the Thunder really rely on the Westbrook-Oladipo backcourt and the center combo of Kanter (13.4-6.0) and Adams (12.0-7.7), to do most of the team's scoring. However, even with Oladipo back and Westbrook likely to put up yet another triple-double, I’m not sure the Thunder can trade points with the Hornets, who have averaged an impressive 109.5 PPG over their last eight games.
OKC has scored 80 and 94 points in the team's last two road games, falling to 8-8 on the road this year. Take the home team.
Jim Feist
Bucks at Knicks
Pick: Under
Milwaukee is strong on defense, #8 in the NBA in points allowed. The Under is 35-17 in Bucks last 52 games following a straight up win. New York is home and the Under is 22-10 in the Knicks last 32 games playing on one days rest. And when these teams clash the Under is 8-1 at New York.
Wunderdog
Quinnipiac @ Canisius
Pick: Under 163
We have a high total, but the Quinnipiac Bobcats are ranked #245 in the nation in shooting 42% as a team and 68.4% from the charity stripe. Quinnipiac plays its fifth road game over the last six contests and averages 71 points per game away from home. The UNDER is 12-4 when following a straight-up win by the Bobcats. Canisius is home where it plays its best defense, allowing 73.6 points per game here. Canisius is 7-3 UNDER the total at home and 10-3 UNDER as chalk.
Buster Sports
Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars
Play: Montreal Canadiens +115
The Canadians are coming off a hard fought win over the Nashville Predators in O/T last night and now they head to Dallas to face the Stars. Getting some real nice value with Montreal here and we will take the underdog Canadians. Montreal are one of the best teams in the NHL and although they are on a back to back game, they have been very successful in this situation going 5-2 this year. The Stars have been playing very well of late winning 4 out of their last 6 games but will be without Captain Jamie Benn tonight who suffered a foot injury on Saturday. This will be a big blow to the Stars offense. Dallas allows almost 3 goals per game and we will see the Canadians who fired 43 shots at Pekka Rinne last night continue their offensive onslaught on one of the worse defensive teams in the league tonight. At the time of this writing Montreal was getting plus money at 115 and we will happily take it. Backing our selection is the fact that the Stars are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. the Eastern Conference.
Mike Rose
Georgia Tech at Duke
Play: Duke -18.5
After shocking North Carolina in its ACC opener, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will attempt to take the other half of Tobacco Road down on Wednesday night when they invade Cameron Indoor for a battle with the win hungry Duke Blue Devils. This will likely be Coach K’s final game before going under the knife for back surgery, so a pristine effort from the home team is likely after getting embarrassed in Blacksburg over the weekend.
This rivalry has been dominated by the Dookies who enter this meeting having won nine in a row while covering the closing odds in six of those contests. That said, each of the last two meetings have been pretty competitive with Duke only winning 80-71 and 72-66 as 4 and 17 point favorites respectively. Georgia Tech played way over its head in the second half against the Tar Heels, yet still only shot 41.5 percent from the floor and was outrebounded by nine. They pulled it off by draining 28 of 33 free throw attempts. Duke doesn’t send its opposition to the line nearly as much as UNC, and they won’t be getting the calls in this one either. Look for Duke to rebound in a big way and take its frustration out on an opponent its buried for the last six years.
David Banks
Portland @ Golden State
Pick: Portland +15.5
The Portland Trail Blazers’ season is heading in the opposite direction of their opponent on Wednesday night, Golden State. Portland has won just one game in its last seven attempts and its star, Damian Lillard, hasn’t played since Dec. 23. Lillard did not play Sunday against Minnesota and it is not known whether he will be ready to go against the Warriors on Wednesday.
Lillard is seventh in the NBA in scoring averaging 27.0 points per game. Without their star, the Trail Blazers have eclipsed 100 points just once. They do have a capable scorer in shooting guard C.J. McCollum who averages 22.3 points a game, but after him Portland’s scoring capability drops off severely.
The Warriors own the NBA’s best record (29-5) and have lost just once – on Christmas Day to Cleveland by one point (109-108) – in their last ten games. Kevin Durant (25.9), Steph Curry (23.9), and Klay Thompson (21.6) are among the top 26 scorers in the league. The Warriors are first in the league in scoring averaging 117 points per game. They also lead the NBA in assists per game (31.2) and are fifth in rebounds (45.4). Most teams just cannot keep up with Golden State’s frenetic pace. Portland is likely the latest on that list.
Nelly
Louisville at Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame +1
Louisville has faced three mammoth games in a row beating Kentucky, losing to Virginia, and beating Indiana. The first game of the 2017 for the Cardinals won’t be any easier with a trip to South Bend looking to avoid a 0-2 start in ACC play. This will be just the second true road game of the season for Louisville however with the other an unimpressive nine-point win at Grand Canyon. As usual the defensive numbers are great for Rick Pitino’s squad but the shooting numbers are poor, hitting just 33 percent from 3-point range. Notre Dame is 12-2 with only a pair of competitive losses to top 15 caliber teams away from home. The Irish are 9-0 S/U at home and the team has four top 100 wins already this season after squeaking out a narrow overtime win at Pittsburgh on Saturday to open the conference season. Notre Dame has the second lowest turnover rate in the nation which is critical against Louisville’s pressure and Notre Dame is one of the top shooting teams in the nation at every level including incredibly hitting over 84 percent from the free throw line to lead the nation. Notre Dame won by five in the only meeting between these teams last season en route to a second straight Elite Eight season and the Cardinals haven’t defeated Notre Dame since the 2013 Big East Tournament in Louisville’s national championship season with the teams splitting in the regular season that year. Notre Dame only has four home losses combined since March of 2014 and last season Louisville was just 4-7 S/U in true road games.
Teddy Covers
Miami at Syracuse
Play: Miami -2.5
Syracuse is a hot mess right now, worthy of fading at every reasonable opportunity! And with the Orange priced near pick ‘em in a game against a superior foe, this certainly looks like a reasonable opportunity to bet against a squad in the midst of a pointspread free-fall.
To say that Syracuse hasn’t beaten anybody all year would not be an understatement. Their signature victory in non-conference play came against Monmouth. Their seven other wins? Colgate, Holy Cross, South Carolina State, North Florida, Eastern Michigan, Boston University and Cornell, not exactly a group of ACC caliber foes.
What’s wrong with the Orange? Let’s start with their defense. Jim Boeheim’s legendary, trademark 2-3 matchup zone. In years past, this defense has created turnovers in bunches and limited opponents open looks, particularly in the paint. That hasn’t happened this year. Syracuse has allowed a 1.21 assist-to-turnover ratio overall – waaaaaaay above Boeheim’s historical norms – despite facing all of those weak foes in November and December.
Syracuse can’t rebound this year either, getting hammered on the offensive glass, night after night. That’s particularly bad news against a big, physical team like Miami, a squad that ranks #14 in the country in offensive rebound rate, with Dewan Huell, Kamari Murphy and Ebuka Izundu all cleaning up Hurricane misses with easy putbacks.
St. John’s just hung 93 on the Orange, shooting 53% from the floor and notching 27 assists on 34 made baskets. The Red Storm aren’t going to approach 90 points in many Big East games this year. Then Boston College hung 96 on them over the weekend: 57% shooting, 28 assists on 36 made field goals. The Eagles, like the Johnnies, aren’t likely to be scoring in the 90’s again anytime soon, a clear indicator of how bad the Syracuse zone really is right now.
Miami has what it takes to win in the Carrierdome. Jim Larranaga’s squad beat Syracuse by double digits at home last year, and won SU here in Syracuse the year before. Floor leaders Davon Reed and Ja’Quan Newton were instrumental in both of those wins, primed to deliver the hat trick tonight. The Hurricanes have won seven straight, brimming with confidence.
And, following a string of seven straight ATS losses – five of them coming in games that the Hurricanes won, but not by a big enough margin – the betting markets have really cooled off on Miami. Not only are the Hurricanes the better, more confident and more chemistry squad, they’re also a legitimately undervalued commodity in this pointspread range, where a SU win should equate with a pointspread cover.
Brad Wilton
Wednesday comp play release is Georgia Tech plus the points at Duke tonight.
The Blue Devils are 12-2, but right now things at Duke are a bit uncertain, as Grayson Allen remains suspended, Coach K is going to be taking a medical leave for another back surgery, and the Devils are coming off a loss (by double-digits no less!) at Virginia Tech their last time on court.
Georgia Tech meanwhile is buoyed by their upset win over North Carolina, and that should give the Yellow Jackets enough confidence to at least go in to Duke tonight and keep this one respectable.
The Yellow Jackets have won 5 of their last 6 straight up, and while they haven't won outright in this series since 2010, they did cover in their last meeting at Duke as the +17 point underdog.
Blue Devils get back on track after their upset loss at Virginia Tech, but Josh Pastner coaxes a solid effort from his Yellow Jackets that is good enough to get the cover.
2* GEORGIA TECH
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on Loyola-Chicago minus the small number against Northern Iowa. Now, I'm betting the oddsmakers made this number so low because the Panthers are generally a top-tier mid-major. But coming to Chicago, they're 5-8 on the season and catch the Ramblers playing well.
Loyola-Chicago is 10-5 this season, and 7-1 at home. The Ramblers are scoring 69.5 points per game in Chicago, where they're allowing a mere 61 points per contest. This is a big statement game for the Ramblers, who won this meeting last season in Chicago, 59-56.
In fact, LIC swept the series last season, and should have plenty of confidence with the Panthers rolling in mired in a four-game slide. Loyola has lost three in a row, but it won't matter today, as it bounces back nicely against Northern Iowa.
3* LOYOLA-CHICAGO