Brett Atkins
Wednesday's comp play is the Thunder plus the hoop over the Hornets.
The Hornets have lost their last pair of games heading into this home date tonight, and Charlotte has not been able to best Oklahoma City in 6 years, as OKC has rolled to the outright win in each of the last 10 series meetings dating back to 2011.
The Thunder is on a 4-1 spread run their last 5 meetings at the Bee Hive, and they are on a 15-5-1 against the spread spree overall versus the Hornets the last 21 series meetings.
Oklahoma City has dropped 2 of their last 3 heading into this one, but are on a 5-2 overall roll their last 7 games contested.
Look for the Thunder to continue their series dominance over the Hornets with another strong series showing tonight in North Carolina.
2* OKLAHOMA CITY
ART ARONSON
Bucks vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks +2
Looks like a good spot to pull the trigger on the struggling Knicks. New York has lost five straight, but if recent history is any precedence, then it has to be liking its chances today as it when it faced Milwaukee last, it won 100-88 back on January 10th, 2016. Milwaukee could be poised for a letdown here, it’s won two of its last three, including two straight. Note though that this is a spot in which the Bucks have struggled in all year, going just 7-9 ATS against clubs with losing records. And note, this is a spot in which the Knicks have excelled in, going 13-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more and 6-3 ATS this season following a loss by ten points or more. Consider a second look at the home side in this one.
BRANDON LEE
Rutgers vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -12
I have no problem laying this number at home on the Spartans. Michigan State is trending up right now. They come in having won 3 straight with 2 impressive wins to open up Big Ten play. First they went on the road and beat Minnesota 75-74 as a 5.5-point dog and then they knocked off Northwestern 61-52 as a 2.5-point home favorite. Now they welcome back freshmen sensation and the teams best player in Miles Bridges, who has missed the last 7 games with an ankle injury. Rutgers comes in at 11-4, but have dropped 3 straight since taking a step up in competition, losing by 11 at Seton Hall, 20 at Wisconsin and 13 at home to Penn State. There's going to be a buzz in East Lansing with Bridges return and this Rutgers team is in for a long night. Note that Izzo has had no problem against the Scarlet Knights, winning all 3 meetings by at least 20+ with a 34-point win in the only game they have hosted Rutgers.
JACK JONES
Heat vs. Kings
Play: Kings -8
The Sacramento Kings have turned the corner and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won five of their last seven games overall coming in, including a 120-113 win in Denver last night as 4-point underdogs.
I know the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back now, but so will the Miami Heat, who lost 90-99 in Phoenix last night. The Heat have now lost six straight and 14 of their last 17 games overall. They aren't able to handle these back-to-back situations because of all their injuries right now.
Indeed, the Heat have been hit harder by injuries than any team this season. They are going to be without Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Josh McRoberts tonight. Both James Johnson and Dion Waiters are questionable, while Tyler Johnson and Goran Dragic are expected to play through injuries.
This is simply a mash unit right now that cannot be competitive given the situation. Sacramento is 7-0 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Expect a double-digit blowout in favor of the home team tonight.
JIMMY BOYD
Georgetown vs. Providence
Play: Providence -3½
I really like the value here with the Friars laying a small number at home against the Hoyas. Providence comes in having lost 3 straight. The first was a surprising 67-79 loss at BC as a 10-point favorite, then they fell at Xavier and Butler in their first two games back from Christmas break. I believe it was the Friars undervalued here, as we can expect a max effort here at home to put an end to the losing streak. Keep in mind that Providence is a perfect 9-0 at home this season and have won 4 straight over the Hoyas.
Georgetown is a team that I just don't trust, especially on the road. The Hoyas had won 6 straight, but it was against weak competition. They did have a 78-71 win at Syracuse during this stretch, but the Orange are slumping and clearly not at the same level as years past. Georgetown has since lost 66-76 at Marquette and 76-81 at home to Xavier. The Hoyas are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games as a dog of 6.5 points or less.
CHASE DIAMOND
Louisville vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame +1½
Love this ACC game with the 12-2 Louisville at the 12-2 Irish. Must win game for Notre Dame here as they come in as a dog at home and they are very tough at home 9-0 this season. Louisville has only played one regular season game on the road this year so this is there first real big test. Only 43% of bettors taking the Irish at home and this line is free falling and I predict the Irish will be a pk to favored by tip off.
MATT JOSEPHS
Indiana State vs. Southern Illinois
Play: Indiana State +1½
Indiana State may be getting Southern Illinois at a good time with Armon Fletcher most likely not going to play. That greatly hurts the Salukis backcourt which is already without Tyler Smithpeters. They do still have Mike Rodriguez, Sean O'Brien and Thik Bol, but I like how close the Sycamores are to getting some wins. Brenton Scott and Everett Clemons figure to have the edge while Matt Van Scyoc will have to try and win the inside. SIU has alternated wins and losses the last six games and has been very inconsistent. Indiana State is 8-1 ATS as an underdog and 23-15 the last three seasons. I like their edge in this one.
SEAN MURPHY
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Over 224
Damian Lillard is unlikely to suit up for the Blazers on Wednesday night, and as a result we're dealing with a reasonably low total (relatively speaking) in this one.
The last time these two teams hooked up in mid-December they combined to score 225 points as the Warriors rolled to a 45-point rout. Their first meeting this season, on the first night of November, totaled 231 points. This has been an 'over' series all the way in recent years.
The Blazers have been struggling offensively without Lillard in the lineup but I do expect them to break loose thanks to the Warriors pace alone. Golden State has actually been quite effective defensively this season, but still gives up over 104 points per game at home.
Offensively, the Warriors continue to light it up, particularly here at Oracle Arena, where they average over 121 ppg. They'll face little resistance against a Blazers squad that gives up over 113 ppg on the road.
DAVE PRICE
Grizzlies vs. Clippers
Play: Grizzlies -1
The Key: Not all back-to-backs are created equal. The Grizzlies lost last night to the Lakers, and now they play the Clippers tonight, meaning they don't have to travel at all as this game will also be played inside Staples Center. And they had two days off before the Lakers game. After a poor performance last night, look for the Grizzlies to re-focus here and take care of the depleted Clippers. The Clippers remain without their 2 best players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. To stay they've struggled without them would be an understatement. The Clippers are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Grizzlies are 23-11 ATS off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on 0 days rest. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. The Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Los Angeles.
MIKE ANTHONY
Bulls vs. Cavaliers
Play: Under 204.5
The big 3 are such a key for Cleveland - their ability to score and make plays is outstanding. With a sickened LeBron - Kyrie is also a leader of this team, hands down - and will continue to dominate at the G position as he always has. Chicago has to try to find ways to score considerably better than they have. Chicago has a good backcourt combination - but being defended by a chest up team like Cleveland is hard to overcome. With Jimmy Butler coming off of his 52 point performance I expect this to be more of a defensive battle between these 2 squads.
JOHN RYAN
Cal Santa Barbara vs. UC Davis
Play: Cal Santa Barbara +6.5
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that C-SB will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great opportunity to win this opening night Conference game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 8* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 8* wager using the line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations and/or systems match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Systems: No qualifying systemns, but this does NOT diminish the strength of this graded play. Game Situations: C-SB is a solid 6-2 against the money line (+8.1 Units) in road games when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. UC-Davis is just 14-34 against the money line (-24.8 Units) when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997. C-SB is 7-1 against the money line (+7.8 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Cal- Santa Barbara and expect the road upset win.
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +132 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers are on our radar as a live dog in the second half of the season but as a favorite in this range, we’re not interested in them whatsoever. There are other issues in play here too. Florida has not played since New Year’s Eve and we see so many teams flat after an extended layoff. Throw in some meals and drinks with family and friends over the past week in the sweet sunshine and there’s a good chance that the Panthers will be flat here, especially in the early going. The Panthers have also allowed 36, 40, 41 and 39 shots on net in four consecutive games, thus, we’ll gladly take our chances here taking back a price like this against a team that has been bombarded with shots recently.
Winnipeg played last night in Tampa so they have already played once since New Year’s Eve and figure to be sharper than the Panthers. Besides that, the Jets have played some of their best hockey this year in the tail end of back-to-backs. The Jets have only played six times on consecutive days but have picked up five out of a possible six points (2-0-1) following a victory in the second leg of back-to-backs. There are many things we don’t like about the Jets but that discussion is for when we are fading them. What we know for sure is that the Jets have the better talent here, they are in a better situational spot and they also hold all the value. That’s more than enough ammunition to warrant a play.
SPORTS WAGERS
RICHMOND -8 over Fordham
Indeed the Spiders have some issues, specifically in the rebounding department where they rank No. 319 among 347 Division I teams. Richmond also has a couple of players out in Marshall Wood and Grant Golden but Golden was only getting 7½ minutes per game while Wood was getting about three times that. Still, Wood is not some key player that the Spiders need to defeat this intruder because the Rams of Fordham remain one of the most beatable mid-major programs over the last decade and nothing has changed this year. Fordham started 5-1 but played six dregs in East Tennessee State, NY Institute of Technology, Fairleigh Dickinson, Saint Peter’s and Lipscomb. They lost to East Tennessee State by 37 points, 96-59. Fordham’s only victory since beating Lipscomb way back on November 20 came against Central Connecticut. This is a Rams’ team that was destroyed by St. Johns by 28 points and has lost to Sacred Heart, UT Arlington, Harvard and Manhattan among others. The Rams have lost seven of eight and rank No. 343 out of 347 teams in rebounding margin so Richmond’s weakness is Fordham’s weakness. The Rams strength of schedule ranks 301st so not only are these traveling dregs losing often, they are losing to other dregs and they're also 0-4 on the road.
There is not always value in underdogs. In this case we have what we trust is a short priced favorite because of the aforementioned injuries and because a superior Richmond team from last season defeated Fordham on this same court by just four points. That matters not because anything can happen in one game such as a cold shooting night. What matters more is that the Spiders were a -12 point choice in that game last year and subsequently went into Fordham and beat them by 15 points in the rematch. Another reason that the Spiders are short priced here is because they have lost six games already this season and have not won consecutive games since Nov 20-22 when they defeated Robert Morris and Hampton. However, Richmond is 1-0 in conference play after beating Davidson by two on Saturday. This is a Spiders’ team that has defeated Boston College and took Maryland to OT before losing by just six. The Spiders strength of schedule (SOS) ranks 183rd in the country, which is 118 positions higher than Fordham’s SOS. It’s also worth noting that the odds maker’s great respect for Richmond was revealed when they made the Spiders just a 6½-point pooch against Maryland on a neutral floor. Maryland is 13-2 and high projections this year. With a chance to go 2-0 in conference play, the Spiders are not going to make the mistake of taking this outfit lightly like they did last year. This is the lowest price that the Spiders have been over Fordham at the Robins Center in the past four seasons and the second lowest over the past decade. That provides an opportunity that we’re not going to miss and we suggest getting on this one before it goes up.
Andrew Lange
New Mexico at Utah St
Play: Over 146
In Mountain West games thus far not involving San Diego State and Nevada (the two best defensive teams in the league), the lowest score was 147 with the other seven ranging from 151-168. Dating back to last season, the Mountain West has been one of the highest free throw shooting conferences in the country. In 2015, the league's FT rate was 40.0 (3rd nationally) and this season just a shade under at 38.5 (5th). It is likely this has something to do with the league's refs but also the makeup of the league as few teams with the exception of SDSU are considering defensively "elite." Good defensive teams don’t foul as the saying goes. Leading the charge is New Mexico who has already attempted nearly 400 free throws (28.2 per game). In the Lobos' season opener against Fresno, they attempted 34 freebies and it resulted in a 78-73 win. They'll have a chance to score points and number of ways tonight as Utah State continues to struggle defensively under head coach Tim Duryea. The Aggies allowed 83 to Boise State and 78 to Air Force in two closes losses to open up MWC play. On the flip side, USU should be able to score its fair share of points as well as New Mexico grades out as mediocre at best on the defensive end. The Lobos have allowed 70+ in nine of their 14 games despite playing six squads currently ranked 230 or worse. We'll look to play this one over the total.
Bruce Marshall
UC Santa Barbara +9
UCSB is down from last season, but not sure UCD has closed or reversed the gap enough to cover this hefty number tonight at home. The Gauchos still have a shrewd HC in Bob Williams and played pretty well in the recent Las Vegas holiday tourney, pushing favored Iona and Nevada. This one stays within 9 points tonight.