Free Picks for Wednesday, June 7th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ST JUDE’S CLASSIC
RUSSEL HENLEY +2500
I haven’t had a PGA winner in a handful of weeks, ever since getting home with Kevin Chappell at roughly +2600 in his first tour win after several near misses. I’m thinking I might have a chance to get home this week with Russel Henley.
It’s important to note that if there were no odds involved, I’d probably back Ricky Fowler or Brooks Koepka. But win wagering on the PGA is all about getting the right price, and neither of those two players offers enough of a return for me to get involved.
But Henley is at a good enough price to warrant some consideration for me. He’s a solid performer on Bermuda grass greens, Henley already has one win in his pocket this year, and he was a contender in last year’s St. Jude’s.
Henley is actually the shorter priced player among the two I took shots with this week. If he gets out of the gate reasonably well on Thursday, don’t be s
Scott Spreitzer
Indians vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies +118
Colorado beat the Indians 11-3 last night and have Kyle Freeland on the mound and the Rockies have won seven of his last nine starts and he's 6-3 on the season. The left-hander comes off a 6-3 win at Seattle when he gave up two runs in six innings. Trevor Bauer has pitched better of late, but he still has a 5.83 ERA overall and 6.14 on the road. Now he has to go to Coors Field where the Rockies have an .800 OPS and they're on a current three-game winning streak. The Indians have lost Bauer's last four interleague starts and they have lost nine of their last 10 games overall against the National League which, of course, includes the 2016 World Series. Cleveland is batting only .237 on the road.
Marc Lawrence
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -105
Edges - Yankees: Sabathia 20-5 last 25 home team starts during June, and 6-0 vs. A.L. East foes this season… Red Sox: Porcello 0-6 vs. A.L. East foes this season; and 1-4 career team starts in this park. With Sabathia in solid KW form with 20 Ks and 4 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Tony Karpinski
Indians vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies +115
Colorado Nolan Arenado has batted excellently with 2 homers and 5 RBI over his last 7 days as of 6.4.2017 -and the Colorado pitching staff has been very tough at times with a multitude of shutouts pitched on the season. The 26 -year-old should continue to be a legit source of power from the 3B position in a potent Colorado lineup vs Cleveland.
Cleveland has been respectable on the road - but they don't have enough power to get it done here. Cleveland's upstart Francisco Lindor, has only 3 hits in 21 at bats during the last 7 games through the 6.4.2017 period...his avg has been collapsing. Cleveland's bats had not been all that great during May - and are hesitant thus far heading into June.
Larry Wallace
Nationals vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -161
I like the Dodgers in this match-up against the Nationals. The Dodgers are trying not to get swept by the Nationals. Clayton Kershaw this year is 7-2 with a 2.28 ERA. Kershaw in his career against the Nationals is 11-2 with a 2.55 ERA. The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games when Kershaw takes the mound on a Wednesday.
Dustin Hawkins
Indians vs. Rockies
Play: Indians -124
Cleveland is 34-20 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 24-8 against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons.
Jim Feist
Astros at Royals
Pick: Under
Houston has it all, pitching depth, defense and their ace on the mound tonight. Dallas Keuchel (9-0, 1.67 ERA0 is back to his Cy Young form two years ago....and may not lose a game! Keuchel allowed three hits and two walks while striking out seven over six scoreless innings in Friday's 7-1 win over Texas. The Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. They face a bad Kansas City offense, a team on a 29-14-1 run under the total on natural grass. Jason Vargas (7-3, 2.03 ERA) has had a great season, too, off a complete game shutout of Cleveland, 4-0. The Under is 19-8-1 in the Royals last 28 home games, plus 19-7 under when Vargas starts.
Raphael Esparza
Warriors / Cavs 1st Half Under 115.5
I know you probably think I'm crazy taking any part of this game UNDER the total, but I see this game starting off slow in Cleveland. It's no secret that the Cavs can play a fast pace game with the Golden St Warriors, and I see them making this game a half court game from the tip. LeBron ran out of gas in the second half of Game #2, and I see the Cavs defense getting some early stops and slowing the tempo down. Wouldn't shock me to see more points scored in the second half then the first, and with a high first half total I see the half time score being in the low 100s. In the last 5 meetings between these two teams, 4 of them have gone UNDER, and again look for the Cavs to slow down the pace when they get stops.
Power Sports
San Diego vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
You probably don't need me to tell you that taking Zack Greinke against the lowly Padres is a good idea. But, even at this price, the D'backs remain a tremendous value at home where they're 22-8 and averaging 6.2 runs per game. San Diego, as expected, is the worst team in all of MLB and that's reflected in their -102 run differential (40 runs worse than second worst team). They've managed only four runs in three start losses and don't figure to score much tonight against Greinke.
Greinke has been his usual dominant self this season w/ a 3.06 ERA and 0.983 WHIP. He's 5-0 here at home (6-1 TSR) w/ both the ERA and WHIP improving. He comes in averaging over 10 K's per nine innings, just the second time he's done so in his career. He's fifth overall in the NL in strikeouts. In 18 career starts vs. San Diego, Greinke is 9-2 w/ a 1.93 ERA. There is no reason really to not expect a quality start from him in this spot.
Meanwhile, can't say the same for the Padres' Luis Perdomo, who (on paper) appears to be badly overmatched here. Perdomo did turn heads with a shocking performance against the Cubs last week, but he still has a 5.01 ERA for the year and the team is 3-6 w/ him on the mound. By far, his worst start of the year came against Arizona on 5.20 as he allowed eight runs in just three innings. That was at home too. As mentioned earlier, the D'backs offense is far more prolific here at Chase Field. The D'backs are actually outscoring opponents by 2.2 rpg at home (tied w/ LA for #1 in MLB) while the Padres are getting outscored by 1.5 rpg on the road (4th worst).
Teddy Davis
St Louis at Cincinnati
Play: St Louis -133
Cardinals are worth a look here tonight to avoid getting swept by the Reds. Lynn is having a very good season with a 2.97 ERA. His last three games have all came on the road and they weren't against easy teams being the Cubs, Rockies and Dodgers and had an impressive 3.44 ERA during that stretch.
The Reds counter with Arroyo who is nothing special by any means. He owns a 6.24 ERA on the season and has been giving up the long ball left and right all year. Arroyo has struggled against the Cardinals in his career with a 8-18 record.
Doc's Sports
Toronto at Oakland
Play: Toronto -104
The Toronto Blue Jays head to O.co Coliseum on Wednesday, June 7, 2017 to take on the Oakland Athletics. The expected starting pitchers are Francisco Liriano for the Blue Jays and Jharel Cotton for the Athletics.
The odds for this matchup have Toronto at -105 and Oakland at -105. The Blue Jays have a 27-27-4 over/under mark and a 26-32-0 run line record. The Athletics are 28-29-0 against the run line and have a 31-25-1 over/under record.
Valuable Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends
The Toronto Blue Jays are 27-27-4 against the over/under
The Toronto Blue Jays are 26-32-0 against the run line
Important Oakland Athletics Betting Trends
The Oakland Athletics are 31-25-1 against the over/under
The Oakland Athletics are 28-29-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Blue Jays have a 28-30 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Francisco Liriano has a 3-2 record with an earned run average of 5.94 and a WHIP of 1.80. He has 35 strikeouts over his 33.1 innings pitched and he's given up 35 hits. He allows 9.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.94. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.94 and they have given up 181 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .229 against the bullpen and they've struck out 234 hitters and walked 77 batters. As a team, Toronto allows 8.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings. They are 16th in the league in team earned run average at 4.2. The Blue Jays pitchers collectively have given up 498 base hits and 244 earned runs. They have allowed 74 home runs this season, ranking them 8th in the league. Toronto as a pitching staff has walked 196 batters and struck out 518. They have walked 3.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.33 and their FIP as a unit is 4.16.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Toronto is hitting .245, good for 20th in the league. The Blue Jays hold a .416 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312, which is good for 23rd in baseball. They rank 21st in MLB with 8.3 hits per game. Kevin Pillar is hitting .270 with an on-base percentage of .328. He has 61 hits this season in 226 at bats with 14 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .434 and an OPS+ of 102. Jose Bautista is hitting .233 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .341. He has totaled 49 hits and he has driven in 28 men in 210 at bats. His OPS+ is 103 while his slugging percentage is at .419. The Blue Jays have 479 hits, including 92 doubles and 79 home runs. Toronto has walked 178 times so far this season and they have struck out 451 times as a unit. They have left 368 men on base and have a team OPS of .727. They score 4.34 runs per contest and have scored a total of 252 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Oakland has a 25-32 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 5.11, Jharel Cotton has a 3-6 record and a 1.44 WHIP. He has 44 strikeouts over the 49.1 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 48 hits. He allows 8.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.63. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.99 and they have given up 189 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .254 against the Athletics bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 171 batters and walked 76 opposing hitters. As a team, Oakland allows 8.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings. They are 26th in the league in team earned run average at 4.65. The Athletics pitchers as a team have surrendered 475 base knocks and 258 earned runs this season. They have given up 62 home runs this year, which ranks 26th in Major League Baseball. Oakland as a staff has walked 189 hitters and struck out 439 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.33 while their FIP as a staff is 4.19.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .235, good for 27th in the league. The Athletics hold a .428 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .304, which is good for 27th in baseball. They rank 29th in MLB with 7.8 hits per contest. Jed Lowrie comes into this matchup batting .287 with an OBP of .353. He has 60 hits this year along with 20 RBI in 209 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .474 with an OPS+ of 128. Yonder Alonso is hitting .303 this season and he has an OBP of .398. He has collected 46 hits in 152 at bats while driving in 34 runs. He has an OPS+ of 192 and a slugging percentage of .678. The Athletics as a unit have 444 base hits, including 98 doubles and 86 homers. Oakland has walked 180 times this year and they have struck out on 517 occasions. They have had 351 men left on base and have an OPS of .732. They have scored 4.18 runs per game and totaled 238 runs this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Indians vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies +110
I really like the value here with Colorado as a home dog against the Indians. The Rockies took the first of this short 2-game series 11-3 and are riding a 3-game winning streak. Cleveland has been consistently overvalued by the books to start the year and I just feel we are still seeing some of that here against a Rockies team that we just don't know if they are for real or not. Regardless if Colorado is able to sustain their early succcess, they are playing extremely well right now and that's all that matters.
I also like the starting pitching matchup and would give the edge to the Rockies here. Colorado will send out Kyle Freeland, who is 6-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts. Freeland leads the Rockies with 8 quality starts and has thrown the ball well at Coors Field. Indians counter with Trevor Bauer, who will doing something rare here and throwing on 2-days rest after his start on Sunday was cut short because of a rain delay. On top of that, Bauer has a 6.13 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 6 road starts.
Greg Smith
Warriors at Cavs
Play: Cavs +4
I guess this is just one of those moments where we see what kind of heart and team the Cavs really are. They need this win at home to even have a remote chance of winning the series. They are at home and getting points and Lebron is has a really good record coming off a loss with the next game being at home.
Rocketman
San Diego @ Arizona
Play: Arizona -1.5
The San Diego Padres travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night. San Diego is 23-36 SU overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 35-25 SU overall record on the season. Luis Perdoma is 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA overall this year and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts. Zack Greinke is 7-3 with a 3.06 ERA overall this year, 5-0 with a 2.49 ERA at home this season and 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Greinke is 9-2 with a 1.93 ERA in his 18 career starts vs San Diego. San Diego is scoring only 3.4 runs per game overall this year and 3.7 runs per game on the road this season. Arizona is 22-8 SU at home this year where they are scoring 6.2 runs per game. Arizona is allowing only 3.6 runs per game their past 7 games overall. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona on the Run line tonight!