Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, June 8

Bruce Marshall

Miami at Minnesota
Pick: Miami

The Twins are a mess, sitting with an AL-low 9 wins at home as of June 7, and a woeful 16-40 overall and on course for a whopping 116 losses. Tuesday starter Pat Dean is unlikely to provide a respite after allowing homers in each of his last four starts. Much prefer the Marlins and Adam Conley, off of a brilliant six innings of work vs. the Pirates last Wednesday.

Tony George

Warriors vs. Cavs
Play: Under 206

The Cavs have been dominated in this series and it now goes back to Cleveland where LeBron James has to step it up and take control in this game or I fear Cleveland could actually get swept, despite the NBA’s desire to extend the series for advertising dollars, which I doubt Golden St could care less about.

Let’s look at the Totals Play here, currently sitting at 206. In Game 1 the total opened at 210 and dropped to 209. The final scores was 193 and Game 2 was 187, and now we have a drop of 4 points total since day 1 of the Finals. It is clear Cleveland’s defense which was 19 ppg better than Golden States overall in their last 5 games leading into the Finals has not stepped up, especially against bench players, however I think it will at home for the Cavs in this game. Conversely the depth and rotation of key players for Golden State, and their ability to shut down the Cavs offense I feel will continue.

This will be a hard fought, tooth and nail type battle in Cleveland Wednesday and I do not foresee a shootout in this game as the Cavs try to crawl back into contention. Dating back to June of 2015, in 9 games, Cleveland has not once scored more than 98 points in any game. I see nothing to change that scenario in Game 3.

Art Aronson

Cardinals vs. Reds
Play: Over 9

A couple of inconsistent hurlers collide on Wednesday night and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we believe the total will eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Jaime Garcia (4-5, 3.48 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday, also walking three. The home side counters with confirmed “gas can” Alfredo Simon (2-5, 8.94) who comes in off a victory despite allowing four runs off five hits with three walks over seven innings vs. the Rockies on Thursday. Note that Simon is a deplorable 1-2 with a 6.84 ERA at home thus far. Consider a second look at the OVER in this matchup.

DAVE COKIN

WARRIORS VS. CAVALIERS
PLAY:CAVALIERS PK 1st HF

Cleveland is rather obviously in desperation mode after getting blown out twice at Oracle. I think they should come out flying here, unless they’re mentally fried at this point. At the professional level, I have fewer concerns about teams falling apart the I do in the college ranks, so I’m banking on the Cavalier being at their best tonight.

But I’d rather play just the first half than the entire game. Kerr vs. Lue is a coaching mismatch and if this is a ballgame late, my guess is Golden State makes the adjustments and wins it. I see the Warriors being better physically and tougher mentally when the game is on the line.

So my bet tonight will be on the Cavaliers to simply win the first 24 minutes. That’s where I believe their bets possibilities to be the better team are. If they can’t win the opening two quarters, I suspect we’ll be looking at a 3-0 Warriors lead.

Not really much else to this, so I’ll just roll with the Cavs to play their best half of the series to cash a ticket on Wednesday night

Ben Burns

Indians vs. Mariners
Olay: Over 7½

While I'm aware that both starters have enjoyed success against today's opponent, given their current form, this number looks a little low.

Walker had an outstanding April. However, he's come back down to earth in a big way. Indeed, he's 0-6 with a 5.77 ERA his last seven outings. Over his last two starts, he's served up five long balls in just 9 1/3 innings, the same number of batters he struck out. Overall, he gave up 11 earned runs on 15 hits in those 9 1/3 innnings, walking six, while striking out five. Not surprisingly, both games finished above the total.

Carrasco's overall numbers are much better. However, this is just his second start since April 24th, as he missed the month of May entirely. He only went five innings in his last start, allowing three runs on nine hits, one of them leaving the yard. Nothing special about that.

Both offenses have hit right-handers well and both teams have been profitable for "over" bettors when the teams have faced a right-hander. The Indians are averaging five runs per game vs. RH starters, while the M's are averaging a whopping 5.7. With games here at SafeCo averaging nearly nine runs per game so far this season, take a second look at the "Over 7.5 runs."

Rob Vinciletti

Mets vs. Pirates
Play: Mets -134

The Mets apply to a solid 89% MLB League wide database system that plays on road favorites off a road favored loss while scoring 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a home dog win scoring 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits like the Pirates. Pittsburgh is just 9-15 vs winning teams and has Jameson Taillon up for AAA to make his debut against Noah Syndergarrd who is 4-1 on the road with a solid 1.85 Era and a 1.10 Era in his last 3 starts. Look for the Mets to take this one.

Matt Josephs

Mets vs. Pirates
Play: Under 7

Jameson Taillon makes his long awaited debut on Wednesday as the Pirates host the Mets. Taillon was 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA in 10 triple-A starts. The righty had 61 strikeouts to just six walks in 61.2 innings of work. Righties hit just .224 while lefties checked in at .148. The Mets offense has struggled as of late hitting .233 entering Tuesday's doubleheader. Noah Syndergaard is 6-2 with a 1.94 ERA and a WHIP of 0.976 in 11 starts for New York with six of them going under the total. He has allowed just two earned runs and 14 hits in his last three starts with 23 K's to just one walk. Thor lost last year in Pittsburgh towards the beginning of his career, but now he's getting a struggling Pirates lineup. Before Tuesday's doubleheader, they were hitting .232 in their last seven games. The Mets bullpen has solid numbers on the year so a late lead should be held. I think this one goes quickly and goes under the total.

Bob Harvey

Golden St vs. Cleveland
Play: Golden St +1

The Cleveland Cavaliers look to make amends for a nationally televised embarrassment when they host the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors in Game 3 of the title series. T It’s been all Golden State so far with the champs holding a 2-0 series lead and coming off a 110-77 humiliation of LeBron James overmatched squad.

The Warriors (87-14, 58-41 ATS) won the first two games of the series by an average of 25 points due in large part to the play of Draymond Green. The former Michigan State star was the Game 2 standout scoring 28 points with seven rebounds and five assists. Green also drained five 3-pointers. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson each made four 3-pointers in Game 2 but neither player has produced a monster scoring game with Curry averaging 14.5 points and Thompson just 13. It’s yet another testament to the depth and talent of the entire roster.

As if they weren’t already facing enough adversary, the Cavaliers (69-29, 46-49 ATS) could be a man short tonight. Kevin Love, who suffered a concussion in Game 2, didn't practice on Tuesday and must clear the concussion protocol before he can play.

The Warriors have won the last seven meetings -- including the last three of the 2015 NBA Finals and two regular-season meetings before the wins in this series. Golden State is 6-1 ATS during that stretch and is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.

Bottom line: It’s tough to imagine any scenario in which Cleveland wins four of the next five to take the title. If they DON’T win tonight, you can go ahead and pencil in a sweep and another title for Golden State.

Larry Ness

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers beat the Houston Astros for the EIGHTH consecutive time on Tuesday, winning in their last at-bat for the second straight night in this four-game series. The Rangers won Monday’s opener on a RBI double in the bottom of the ninth inning and won last night on a two-run HR in the bottom of the eighth. The victory upped the team’s overall winning streak to a season-high five games, giving Texas a 36-22 record. The Rangers own a four-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West and are now NINE games up on the 28-32 Rangers.

Texas will try to defeat the visiting Astros for the ninth consecutive time on Wednesday, as Yu Darvish makes his third start since returning from Tommy John surgery. Darvish has won his first two starts of 2016 but looked sharper in his season debut against Pittsburgh than he did in his second time out against Seattle. He gave up one run and three hits in five innings against the Pirates before allowing three runs and six hits in 5.2 innings vs the Mariners. Darvish is 4-3 with a 3.54 ERA in nine career starts against the Astros, with Texas owning a 6-3 record in his starts.

Doug Fister (5-3, 3.51 ERA) gets the nod for Houston. Fister enters having won FOUR consecutive decisions, including his last outing against Oakland in which he scattered four hits over six scoreless innings. He has compiled a 2.45 ERA during a seven-start unbeaten streak (Astros are a PERFECT 7-0), allowing two runs or less in FIVE of those seven starts. However, Fister fell to 4-5 with a 5.18 ERA in 11 career regular season starts (teams are 4-7) against Texas on April 20, when he suffered the loss after giving up two runs and five hits in six innings.

The Astros have now lost 12 straight visits to Arlington dating back to last season. What changes tonight? NOTHING!

Jesse Schule

Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Miami Marlins -111

The Fish come into this series versus Minnesota as winners of four of their last six. They are just four games back of the first place Nationals in the NL East, and Miami looks good with a favorable matchup on the mound in Game 2 at Target field. Wei Yin Chen will toe the slab for the visitors, and he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his last start. Chen (3-2, 4.25 ERA) did not factor in the decision in a 4-3 win at Pittsburgh, surrendering a pair of runs on just one hit and three walks. The southpaw is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA in his last five starts versus the Twins, and he's 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA on the road this season. The Twins hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco, and the veteran has really struggled of late. Nolasco (2-4, 4.93 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits, fanning seven in a home loss to Tampa his last time out. He's 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in five starts at home this season. The Twins rank dead last in the American League in runs scored, so Nolasco won't likely get a ton of support against a stud southpaw here.

Jim Feist

Red Sox at Giants
Pick: Over

Boston brings the top offense in baseball into this series, on a 16-7-3 run over the total. David Price has plenty of wins but has not thrown that well with a 4.88 ERA for this new team. Price (7-2) gave up six hits, three runs (two earned) and four walks over seven innings in Friday's 5-2 loss to the Blue Jays. The Over is 25-11-3 when the Red Sox face a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and they face Madison Bumgarner, and the over is 8-3 in his last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. San Fran has a Top 12 offense in runs scored and rank 5th in on base percentage. The Over is 8-2 in the Giants last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Dave Essler

Cubs / Pirates Over 7.5

The weather, or the threat of a thunderstorm/rain delay - is the ONLY thing holding this total where it is. The Cubs might be pissy and the hammered Velasquez once already - he's too young to make the adjustments against THIS team. The Phillies have had some success off of Lackey, enough to think they contribute. BOTH bullpens are in disarray - and if the rain delay happens and is timed right, we could see the starters pulled if the delay happens AND is long enough. I'm not counting on the delay - but IMO if it does happen it'll only help.

Chase Diamond

A's vs. Brewers
Play: A's +114

This game features the 25-33 Oakland at the 27-31 Brewers. We lost with Oakland yesterday and again will return with the A's today. Their pitcher Jesse Hahn is off his worst start as a professional Baseball player and I think he will be fighting hard to rebound off that. Oakland has lost 4 straight as a team so the team will be desperate as well. I love the plus money here and the value as Oakland is the better team as well.

Jimmy Boyd

Diamondbacks -101

Arizona is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Rays. The Diamondbacks won easily last night 5-0 behind their ace Zack Greinke and I look for Archie Bradley to keep the Tampa Bay offense in check again today.

Bradley got off to a rough start, but has really looked sharp of late. He struck out 10 and allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings against the Cubs in his most recent outing. Prior to that he struck out 9, giving up just 3 runs on 4 hits in 7 1/3 against the Padres. Tampa Bay is scoring just 3.7 runs/game and hitting .227 as a team against right-handed starters this season.

The Rays counter with Jake Odorizzi, who comes in with a strong 3.32 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 12 starts, but he's not been near as sharp away from home. He's got a 4.22 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in 6 road starts and the Diamondbacks are no easy offense to keep in check, especially when they are playing at home.

Tampa Bay is just 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less, 1-4 in their last 5 following a loss and 2-11 in their last 13 against a starter that is allowing 5.5 or less hits/game. This is also a getaway game for the Rays, who will finally get to return home after a lengthy 10-game road trip.