Power Sports
Miami vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
Rarely, do the Twins get even a recommendation from me, but I like what I see here tonight vs. Miami, both in terms of line movement and the matchup. Despite drawing fewer overall bets than Miami here, the line has moved in the home team's direction. The Twins did win yday's series opener, 6-4, snapping a 3-game skid.
Miami has been a bit of an overachiever so far. If you look at their run differential (which is currently -18), you would expect them to have a losing record. But they're actually two games above .500. Lately though, they've shown signs of regression. Over the last seven games, they've averaged just 3.0 rpg while batting a collective .223. Their only win in the last four game came with Jose Fernandez starting and it was a 1-0 final over the Mets. Tonight's starter Wei-Yen Chen has looked pretty good in his last two starts, but threw 100 pitches his last time out and had to leave after six innings. That's pretty inefficient and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him struggle here.
All of a sudden, Minnesota is hitting home runs. They've hit six in the last two games. That's the kind of support Ricky Nolasco will be looking for here as last time out he got only two runs of support, which wasn't enough. But he pitched well for a second straight start, allowing just three runs and six hits in 7 2/3 innings. That followed him allowing only two runs and three hits in a win at Seattle on May 29th. Nolasco's KW ratio in his L2 starts is a superb 14-1. As bad as the Twins' overall record might be (17-40), they are actually 8-8 when off a win.
Wunderdog
Kansas City @ Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore -152
Kansas City is 11-21 on the road and plays its seventh straight road game. The Royals have scored one or no runs in each of the last five games and have managed a total of eight during a six-game skid. Royals' righty Edinson Volquez allowed five runs on seven hits, walking four over 6.1 innings of a 6-1 loss to Cleveland on Friday. He's been inconsistent all year and has a losing road record with a 6.67 ERA. The Royals are on a 7-20 slide on the road. Baltimore goes for the sweep with a powerful offense, top 10 in baseball in runs scored and on base percentage. The Orioles are on a 28-11 run at home, as well as 80-36 at home against a right-handed starter. Baltimore has won six of the last seven after routing K.C. yesterday, 9-1. Orioles' starter Chris Tillman (7-1, 3.33 ERA) has been stellar all year and the team is 13-3 when he starts.
Alex Smart
Warriors at Cavs
Play: Under
The Warriors defensive efficiency in back to back lopsided home victories to start this series , will continue here on the road, and probably even more physical intensity will be planned on being used tonight as the Cavaliers are expected to throw everything including the kitchen sink at them tonight. The Warriors under rated DEFENSE, DEFENSE , DEFENSE and more defense will help keep this game on the low side of the Totals number.
Sleepyj
Minnesota -110
I have a small play on the Twins here..I liked what I saw out of Nolasco in his last start..he looked rather solid and the bats for the Twins are slowly waking up...A decent lineup, but they can;t all get it together at the same time..Perhaps now is the little run they make in the first have..Things have looked better and the Marlins haven't been very sharp the last few weeks..Small play here with the Twinkies at home.
RAY MONOHAN
San Francisco Giants -115
Two aces square off on Wednesday night inside AT&T Park and it's the home ace with the value. Finding Madison Bumgarner at this price, is a nice sight. Bumgarner holds a 7-2 record with a below 2 ERA. He's also helped his own cause a lot when pitching. Bumgarner already has a pair of home runs this season when he pitches. This guy can do it all and has been lock down this season.
The Sox go with Price, who has the same record, but a 4.88 ERA. He's been bailed out plenty of times by the Boston offense, who just seems to go off at Fenway Park. Pitching in a pitchers ballpark won't help his offensive support cause this game.
Some trends to consider. Giants are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
The Giants, at home, with Bumgarner, at this price all makes this worth a move.
JACK JONES
Milwaukee Brewers -125
The Milwaukee Brewers have a massive edge on the mound today that should warrant them being bigger favorites here against the Oakland A's. Plus, the A's have lost four straight coming in, while the Brewers are 4-2 in their last six contests overall.
Chase Anderson is really coming around here of late. He has gone 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.893 WHIP in his last three starts. Anderson faced Oakland once last year, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP while giving up only two earned runs and six base runners in 6 innings of work.
Jesse Hahn is now 2-3 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.645 WHIP in six starts this season after getting rocked here of late. He is 1-2 with a 10.21 ERA and 1.864 WHIP in his last three starts. Hahn is also 0-2 with a monstrous 16.50 ERA and 3.333 WHIP in two road starts.
Oakland is 14-33 (-17.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last three seasons. The A's are 19-44 in their last 63 games following a loss. Oakland is 14-45 in its last 59 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
ASA
Mets vs. Pirates
Play: Under 7
The Mets have lost each of the first two games in this series by a 3-1 count. Remarkably, the Mets have now been held to 2 runs or less in 8 of their past 12 games. The Pirates haven't been doing much better at the plate. Pittsburgh has been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of its last 11 games. With Noah Syndergaard on the mound for the Mets, the Pirates results at the plate are unlikely to surge today. Syndergaard has a 1.94 ERA on the season and a 1.10 ERA in his last three starts. Jameson Taillon will be toeing the rubber for the Pirates. He's making his MLB debut but the way he's been throwing at the AAA level in the minors coupled with the Mets struggles at the plate should result in a solid first start for Taillon. The young right-hander is recovering from Tommy John surgery but has looked stronger than ever. The under is 17-8 in Mets games after a loss this season and the under is a perfect 4-0 when the Mets enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more.
MICHAEL ALEXANDER
Red Sox +108
Boston starter Price is on a bit of roll as he is 3-1 in his last five turns — all quality starts — while lowering his ERA 1.87 during that span. The 30-year-old Tennessee native suffered his first loss in nearly a month with a 5-2 setback to Toronto on Friday when he allowed three runs (two earned) and a season-high four walks in seven innings. The Boston Red Sox own the most prolific offense in baseball.
DAVE PRICE
Boston Red Sox +106
The San Francisco Giants are without two key bats in the middle of their lineup in Buster Posey and Hunter Pence. Until these two return, the Giants could struggle to score runs. Madison Bumgarner gets the ball for the Giants tonight, but I don't expect him to get much run support. I look for David Price to shut down this weak Giants' lineup. Price has 84 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings this season. While he's perceived to be having a down year, he has turned the corner here of late by going 1-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last 3 starts. Price is 16-5 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. The Red Sox are 4-1 in Price's last 5 road starts. Boston is 9-2 in its last 11 interleague games. The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a left-handed starter. The Red Sox are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA -1½ +189 over Tampa Bay
While most analysts and publications agree that Jake Odorizzi is an up and coming pitcher, we see one with plenty of warning signs. Odorizzi might be well-suited to pitch at The Trop but he is not well-suited to thrive at places like Chase Field. Odorizzi has a fly-ball lean profile. His 3.33 ERA is a direct result of a high 79% strand rate. He’s also walked 12 batters over his past 27 innings with a 50% first-pitch strike rate over his past half dozen starts. Odorizzi’s surface stats have him wrongly favoured on the road when he's really just not as good as advertised.
The D-Backs won the middle game of this series last night but were not playable as a big favourite with Zack Greinke on the hill. As a small pup here, the Snakes are very playable with Archie Bradley going.
Tampa Bay’s offence has struck out 532 times this season. Only the Brewers, Padres and Astros have struck out more times. That bodes well for Bradley, who is mowing them down impressively. Bradley has 19 K’s over his past two starts. He struck out 10 Cubs in five frames in his last start before being yanked trailing 1-0. Bradley has a 55% groundball rate and an elite 13% swing and miss rate. He was a pitcher that was tearing it up in the difficult Pacific Coast League and is absolutely ready for prime time. Bradley’s 4.94 ERA is the result of his 10.38 ERA after his first start of the year. He’s made just four starts so far but has an xERA of 2.14 over his last two starts. The market is not sold on Bradley just yet but he's a strong buy-low candidate with filthy stuff, which is something we're in the market for.
Washington -1½ +105 over CHICAGO
We’re not going to discuss Max Scherzer because there is nothing to discuss. He’s not laboring, his skills aren’t declining and we all know exactly who he is.
James Shields is well-acquainted with the American League Central after spending two seasons with the Royals (2013-2014). In order to make room for Shields, the White Sox have moved starter Miguel Gonzalez to the bullpen. Replacing Gonzalez with Shields is equivalent to putting perfume on a pig. Starting six games at the best pitchers park in the majors this year, Shields had an oppBA of .282 and lefties have raked him over the coals for two years and counting. In fact, left-handed batters have a .303 BA and .809 OPS against Shields over the past two plus seasons. Now he switches to a hitters park. On the road this year, Shields’ has an ERA of 5.28 over five starts. Two of those starts were at San Fran’s AT&T Park. One was at Seattle’s Safeco Field and one was at Milwaukee. When Shields opened the year in Colorado, he was taken yard three times. He’s been taken yard two times or more in the same game three times.
Shields' fastball velocity has dropped sharply in recent seasons. His complete loss of control (53% first-pitch strike rate and awful 40% overall balls) stick out as major red flags. A touch of hit%/strand% luck has suppressed Shields' ERA, but xERA and overall skills indicate his ERA is headed north. The Nationals will send up at least four and possibly five LH bats here that include Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. Just to recap, LHB beat him up. HR’s follow him around everywhere. For every six strikes he throws, he also throws four balls. The tip of the decline started well over two years ago for Shields but nobody really noticed much because he was pitching in a pitchers park for a team that nobody gives a damn about. Shields’ will now take his act to the South Side of Chicago where it is very likely going to get ugly.
PITTSBURGH +130 over N.Y. Mets
Noah Syndergaard is one of the best in the game. That’s not news but he also pitches for a team that just got swept in a double-header yesterday and whose offensive numbers are worse than every team in baseball over the past 25 games. In fact, the Mets are hitting .211 over that span, which is worse than San Diego and Atlanta. They have also scored the fewest runs in the majors over that span too. In yesterday’s DH, New York scored twice but failed to score anything on starter Jonathan Niese in Game 1 and scored once on Juan Nicasio in Game 2. The Mets had nine hits combined in both games and now they’re favored on the road against a team they cannot beat to begin with and against a pitcher they have never seen before.
Jameson Taillon would have been called up earlier this year had it not been for the “Super-Two eligible rule that deals with arbitration. The Pirates have another super-talented pitcher in the minors by the name of Tyler Glasgow that figures to be called up soon too. Taillon has not merely gotten people out at the highest level of the minors, but has punched them out. They’re a pair of guys who have not just overcome their opponents, but overwhelmed them, with scorching fastballs and some of the best breaking stuff in the minors.
Taillon, the #2 overall pick in the 2010 draft, missed all of 2014 and 2015 due to Tommy John surgery that he underwent in April 2014. Pittsburgh was extremely cautious with his rehab and it appears to be paying off. While the Pirates have indicated they would strictly monitor his pitch and innings counts, he’s been incredibly efficient in his starts this year. Taillon has pitched at least 6 innings in 9 of his 10 starts, yet he’s never gone above 100 pitches. Despite the long lay-off, Taillon has been downright dominant, exhibiting outstanding command and getting hitters to chase his two plus offerings. His velocity is back to normal, hitting the mid-90s consistently. Taillon spots his four-seam and two-seam fastballs to all quadrants of the strike zone. His best pitch may be his plus curveball that exhibits great power and shape. He’ll also mix in a decent change-up that often flashes plus. He offers the size and power frame to dominate and gets good downhill tilt that makes his fastball difficult to elevate. In 10 starts at Triple-A Indianapolis, Taillon went 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA, 10.2 K’s/9, 0.9 BB’s/9 and an oppBA of just .196. Minor-leaguers that dominate are no sure things but this one is as close as it gets. As a pooch at home, the Pirates are more than worthy here.
Kansas City +140 over BALTIMORE
On May 29, Orioles RHP Chris Tillman pitched six innings at Cleveland. He gave up four hits (three of them HRs) and four runs, all earned. He walked three and fanned three. He left after the sixth, tied 4-4. In the top of the seventh, Hyun Soo Kim smacked a solo HR to put Baltimore into the lead, and the O’s ended up winning 6-4. Tillman moved to 7-1 on the season but a careful look at Tillman’s skills strongly suggests this breakout isn’t for real. His skills remain as average as they have been through a mostly unremarkable career, and his lofty current value is based largely on an outsized win percentage and some other favorable luck. If your own luck means you have backed Tillman frequently, you should start considering a sell-high tactic; if you haven’t backed Tillman, don’t be in any hurry to.
Despite his lack of dominance or ability to consistently fool hitters, Tillman has done well in generating soft contact, though not so well in generating medium contact, where he is bottom-10, or limiting hard contact, where he is worse than the MLB average. Similarly, he has proved to be below-average in GB/LD/FB ratio with a 40%/20%/40% G/L/F split. Where Tillman has really shone is in being lucky. His hit rate this year is 25%, a very low rate for any pitcher, and especially for a pitcher who is:
Average at best in throwing strikes, average at limiting hard-hit balls, not particularly dominant and is affected by control issues. At the same time, Tillman has a 78% strand rate, well above what we would expect from an otherwise average starter. If that strand % were to normalize towards 71% or so, Tillman’s ERA wouldn't look so pretty.
None of this is intended to make you think Chris Tillman is a bad pitcher. He isn’t. There are lots of starting pitchers in MLB far worse than Chris Tillman. But neither is he a good pitcher, despite uncommon luck with hit%, strand% and wins that make him look like a better pitcher than he is. So what is he? He’s a pitcher who is remarkably average, with slightly above-average strikeout ability (despite no obvious strikeout pitches) and some slightly below-average other skills. He is the 2014 innings-eater, having a run of better luck.
We are specifically not declaring that Tillman will regress to norms and therefore reveal himself as the average pitcher the skills analysis shows him to be. Any analysis that says a player will regress to norm is an analysis of dubious trustworthiness. Tillman himself has shown that it's possible for a pitcher to maintain a lower-than-normal hit% and higher-than normal strand% for entire seasons. In four years out of the last five, including this year, Tillman has outpitched his xERA, three times by 0.87 runs or more, and he has posted ERAs under 3.00 twice. There is a school of thought that says sometimes players, especially pitchers, just outperform their skills metrics, and we have to accept that reality disagrees with even the most careful analysis. In short, the metrics might not reveal something that sets Tillman apart.
That said, however, regression and a resulting decline in production are almost always the way to play this sort of hand. We would expect some kind of move towards a 30% hit rate and a 71% strand rate and therefore we would expect his WHIP and ERA to rise. And counting on any pitcher for wins is a mug’s game, especially when the pitcher has demonstrated relatively average skills. Chris Tillman may win today but he’s very overpriced and that is all we care about.